Can Tiger win? (and do you think he will)

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Several weeks ago I would have laughed at anyone who thought Tiger could win this years masters. However as it draws nearer my opinion has changed quite a bit.

First of all, do I think Tiger WILL win? -

Probably not. there are 2 main reasons for this.
1.) Purely based on the strength of the top 15 or so players in the field, I would fancy the winning score to be somewhere around 15 under, there are too many guys playing too well for us not to see people put together a few back to back rounds in the 60s. Also if the weather reports are true then it will be a much softer course.
I don't see Tiger being able to put together that kind of number, If -8 is a winning number then I expect him to go close though.
2.) His wildness off the tee. Augusta may not be the most punishing course if you stray offline but we all know that with those greens its very hard to get it close if you aren't playing from the fairway.
Yes he has had problems with chipping of late but rumour is those are gone now. What I remember of Tiger from the last few years is missing the fairway 50yards left or right regularly. I don't see that will have turned around a couple of years of bad driving in 3 weeks on the driving range, and if scoring is to be as low as it seems it might then fairways are where the ball needs to be (no s**t Sherlock I hear you say!)

All that said though........... against my better judgement and logic, I have a feeling (based on little more than a hunch) that Tiger is going to start putting together a score this week.
Perhaps its the old romantic in me, TW has for years been my favourite player to watch and perhaps im longing for that old fairy-tale story of the fallen hero (some may say villain) coming back from the dead to win a 5th green jacket.

Or maybe its the fact that iv had a sly tenner on him at 50/1    

Either way - whats your thoughts, can he win? and does anyone want to stick their neck out and say they think he will!?

Yes I didn't realize PH made a swing change before his major wins. But i know about the swing changes after.

MustPuttBetter wrote:Inco, I really was meaning players making changes whilst at or near the top of the game. Would you say Harrington was at the top when he made those first changes? He certainly was when he decided to make his next swing overhaul and look what happened to him then........

Good point, but Woods himself has been successful in the past making changes at the top of his game. His changes with Haney arguably made him a better player than he was before. He didn't beat fields by as much but his winning rate increased if I'm not mistaken.

Depends how you look at it. He won more Majors with Butch but more WGCs and tournaments overall with Hank.
I think Tiger clearly has massive natural talent and so can absorb changes. But I wonder if each one took him a little further away from the natural swing/talent/ability that he started with and now he is so far away and doesn't know how to get back. My opinion only, of course

Aside from looking for some sort of perfection that doesn't exist, where was the value in changing his swing from the 'Butch swing' to the 'Hank swing'? And then where was the value in changing further? To become better than the 14 time major winning best player in the world?

without Hank and stack and tilt Tiger would be much closer to the 18 major mark.

MustPuttBetter wrote:Aside from looking for some sort of perfection that doesn't exist, where was the value in changing his swing from the 'Butch swing' to the 'Hank swing'? And then where was the value in changing further? To become better than the 14 time major winning best player in the world?

tbh he had a major injury that forced a swing change. but instead of accepting it and toning down his power game- he stressed other parts of his body to try and get the same results.

Did that require a change of coach and complete overhaul?
Mickleson, D Johnson and co don't seem to have bad left knees so it can't be a Butch theme

I don't think there is a Butch theme as such. I heard someone commenting recently that he doesn't teach a method, and often leaves idiosyncrasies in players swings (such as DJ's ultra-closed position at the top). Therefore you won't easily identify a player as being one of his pupils in the way you might be able to with Haney. If Tiger was smashing it but smashing it straight when Butch was teaching him, Butch probably decided he could get away with it, which he could for a while.

Does anyone know why tiger left Butch?

Think it was because Tiger felt Butch was taking too much of the credit for all the major winns and that he was making a lot off of the back of coaching Tiger

Just to be clear, I wasn't bringing Butch into this to be some sort of advocate for his methods. My point would be the same if he'd started with Haney.
I just don't see what he hoped to gain by opting for a change of coach and a change of swing

MontysMerkin wrote:

MustPuttBetter wrote:Monty - I'm not saying that Rory wasn't hitting it hard but you never see him lose balance. Unlike Eldrick

No he was balanced but you could see a massive head dip a la tiger and a pretty poor resulting shot.

Almost anyone swinging a driver at 120mph+ will have a head dip. You can't help but have one if you get the correct weight shift onto the lead foot.

MustPuttBetter wrote:Monty - I'm not saying that Rory wasn't hitting it hard but you never see him lose balance. Unlike Eldrick

Bob - I think you're on the wrong website buddy if you don't think we should be discussing matters involving anyone who should/does know better than us. I assume you only stick to commenting on players whom you have won more tour events than? oh

No Pal, I really didn't mean it that way Chum. Go re-read my post Mate. The point is I'm amazed HE doesn't know what he's doing wrong when clearly EVERYONE else does. And I mean this is the one area where EVERYONE (including me) is in agreement about what he's doing wrong. Does it not amaze you that one of the best golfers in the world, ever, doesn't realise he's nearly putting himself in orbit because he's swinging so hard?

I suspect you and I have played the same number of tour events.

navyblueshorts wrote:

MontysMerkin wrote:

MustPuttBetter wrote:Monty - I'm not saying that Rory wasn't hitting it hard but you never see him lose balance. Unlike Eldrick

No he was balanced but you could see a massive head dip a la tiger and a pretty poor resulting shot.

Almost anyone swinging a driver at 120mph+ will have a head dip. You can't help but have one if you get the correct weight shift onto the lead foot.

Yet on the range looks composed and balanced with no huge head dip? Like TW?

Bob_the_Job wrote:

MustPuttBetter wrote:Monty - I'm not saying that Rory wasn't hitting it hard but you never see him lose balance. Unlike Eldrick

Bob - I think you're on the wrong website buddy if you don't think we should be discussing matters involving anyone who should/does know better than us. I assume you only stick to commenting on players whom you have won more tour events than? oh

No Pal, I really didn't mean it that way Chum.  Go re-read my post Mate.  The point is I'm amazed HE doesn't know what he's doing wrong when clearly EVERYONE else does.  And I mean this is the one area where EVERYONE (including me) is in agreement about what he's doing wrong.  Does it not amaze you that one of the best golfers in the world, ever, doesn't realise he's nearly putting himself in orbit because he's swinging so hard?  

I suspect you and I have played the same number of tour events.

You can put the thesaurus down now old bean

And you can sho... yeah, ok,. fair enough

Bob_the_Job wrote:...Does it not amaze you that one of the best golfers in the world, ever, doesn't realise he's nearly putting himself in orbit because he's swinging so hard?...

It certainly does amaze me, but I'd suggest the evidence is there for all to see. He tries to hit the skin off it on the course, the result is scheiss (by his standards) and yet he doesn't either realise what the problem is and/or is too daft to back off a touch or hit a 3w. He also doesn't look like he's the sort of person who'll listen to anyone very much.

No it's tigers way and tigers way only. And I think with this masters performance he will stick with tigers way. He will concentrate on the good (rounds 2and 3) but forget the all important pressure rounds where he plays like he is under pressure due to lack of exposure to it. He is also forgetting that there are players out there in there tens that are not fearful in the slightest of him. Players around him used to melt when he was in the lead. I am not diminishing his 14 majors . But imposing fear(coined the tiger factor) was a key part of his success

From what I saw on Sunday, he's not much better with a 3W. That's the club he put on the 9th fairway off the first tee!

I think if I recall correctly, he does struggle a lot with the 1st tee in majors, whatever club he tries to thrash within inches of it's life.