Monte Carlo Masters thread

[It Must Be Love]

First topic message reminder :

http://www.montecarlorolexmasters.mc

All the top players are playing, with the exception of Andy Murray, who's busy getting married.

Beautiful tournament, love scenery, and a nice start to the European Clay Court season.

[Josiah Maiestas]

Novak on another level to the moonballer. Rafa had to copy John Isner to win some serve points but not enough.. Dominant win

[Jahu]

CC, sugar coating it a little for HN there.

Rafa has no BH or FH, no power, not all mental, come on.

[HM Murdock]

Good performance from Novak, Rafa still building his game up.

Not a lot to take from this. Novak is currently playing better but Rafa will be building toward RG.

I don't see this as having much bearing on a future meeting at the French.

[laverfan]

Given the struggles Federer and Djokovic showed in getting to grips with a new racquet, Nadal's "business as usual" manner has been a little bit of a shock

I was going to ask if it was a new paint job, or a new racquet. Is it a change or paint job?

[laverfan]

Djokovic played well, with excellent control. Nadal has his work cut out till RG, which I think he is up to.

[Jahu]

Given the struggles Federer and Djokovic showed in getting to grips with a new racquet, Nadal's "business as usual" manner has been a little bit of a shock

I was going to ask if it was a new paint job, or a new racquet. Is it a change or paint job?

New frame, old strings, more spin, less control, Smart Data Transfer

[Belovedluckyboy]

Too bad for Rafa, ROS is poor, court position poor behind the baseline, can only go CC all the time, poor second serves. He has a long way to go to get back to his normal level on clay. Novak is too strong from both wings, strong in both serving and returning and so quick around the court and never gives up on a point.

Seriously, Novak is getting to be like Fed, ie, his game, like Fed's, can succeed on any surface. He doesn't even need to change his game on any surface. His game may be metronomic but it's rather effective and he's brilliant in executing it.

It's time for Rafa to upgrade his clay court game. By staying so far behind the baseline to play his traditional clay court game, he's ceding ground to players who can serve big and hit with depth, or to those who can S&V like Isner. Rafa is not getting any younger and he can't afford to do all the running behind the baseline to retrieve balls. Toni has to do his job, at least help Rafa to concentrate on his ROS and his court position. Rafa is trying to come forward today with some successes but he's too far back most of the times, can't beat a Novak playing his HC game on clay.

[Jahu]

Rafa played same at IW/Miami, 5-6m behind the baseline.

I think he is forgetting he does not have the same power as before, or somehow it seems like that, his balls ain't traveling very far, often just above the net.

[temporary21]

The expected result really. Rafa was exactly like this up until RG last time though. Goal for him is to try and poach a win off Novak in the next 2 masters upcoming.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Yep, I somehow feel that Rafa still couldn't come to terms with the fact that he's older now and so losing some speed and power. His shots barely reaches the service box of his opponent's court; and, by standing so far back, he's giving his opponent so much time to come forward to return his shots. His ROS position is so ridiculously far back, and even if he returns it with success, his opponent will be at the net waiting for it.

Novak even hits a bigger, more powerful FH than Rafa these days, poor Rafa, Novak seems to be more superior in every category these days - FH,BH, Serve, Return, court position, depth and speed of shots, power, confidence, never gives up, etc and etc. Rafa and his team has to think hard and help Rafa improves his game, if he still wants to win important titles.

[TRuffin]

Given the struggles Federer and Djokovic showed in getting to grips with a new racquet, Nadal's "business as usual" manner has been a little bit of a shock

I was going to ask if it was a new paint job, or a new racquet. Is it a change or paint job?

USA comms said today same racquet but different strings. Rafa indicated it was a new racquet prototype and earlier in the week- some comms were saying the only change was the string pattern.... more open..

so who knows!!?

[Jahu]

USAToday has it as: Nadal confirms he changed racquet, not strings. Thought of this for a while and now racquet ready. More spin and power, less control.

Tennis-X: “We were thinking about before the season start,” Nadal said of the change. But was not enough time to prepare the racquet for before the season start. So now the racquets are ready. I practiced with them in Mallorca since I came back from Miami.

“But is a change to try to have little bit more spin. The holes between the strings are a little bit bigger than the other racquet. We decided to change the racquet to try to increase little bit the spin again. Is true that with this new racquet, probably I have less control. Not today. In theory I have less control. In theory I have more power and more spin“.

I think he is not sure himself, what's going on.

[TRuffin]

Yep, I somehow feel that Rafa still couldn't come to terms with the fact that  he's older now and so losing some speed and power.  His shots barely reaches the service box of his opponent's court; and, by standing so far back, he's giving his opponent so much time to come forward to return his shots.  His ROS position is so ridiculously far back, and even if he returns it with success, his opponent will be at the net waiting for it.

Novak even hits a bigger, more powerful FH than Rafa these days, poor Rafa, Novak seems to be more superior in every category these days - FH,BH, Serve, Return, court position, depth and speed of shots, power, confidence, never gives up, etc and etc. Rafa and his team has to think hard and help Rafa improves his game, if he still wants to win important titles.

Djoko is 10-3 h2h in best of 3 setters over Nadal since 2011, but 3-4 best of 5. If Nadal is losing some speed and power and unable to out endure Djoko in the best of 5- the whole rivalry is going to become very one sided.

[It Must Be Love]

Yep, I somehow feel that Rafa still couldn't come to terms with the fact that  he's older now and so losing some speed and power.  His shots barely reaches the service box of his opponent's court; and, by standing so far back, he's giving his opponent so much time to come forward to return his shots.  His ROS position is so ridiculously far back, and even if he returns it with success, his opponent will be at the net waiting for it.

Novak even hits a bigger, more powerful FH than Rafa these days, poor Rafa, Novak seems to be more superior in every category these days - FH,BH, Serve, Return, court position, depth and speed of shots, power, confidence, never gives up, etc and etc. Rafa and his team has to think hard and help Rafa improves his game, if he still wants to win important titles.

Djoko is 10-3 h2h in best of 3 setters over Nadal since 2011, but 3-4 best of 5.   If Nadal is losing some speed and power and unable to out endure Djoko in the best of 5-  the whole rivalry is going to become very one sided.

It's 4-0 Nadal in Slams after the AO epic.

I think Nadal is losing speed and power, and his game is also declining. The FH DTl in particular seems to have disappeared. He's no longer playing at the world class level to challenge for major titles.

[temporary21]

Im gonna get this in early. Feel free to quote me on this later on in the year whether im right or wrong.

If Novak wins the FO this year, which I think he will do, he's gonna win the Grand Slam this year

[Jahu]

Never.

[It Must Be Love]

I'm very confident Djokovic will do the Grand Slam this year.

[CaledonianCraig]

I'm very confident Djokovic will do the Grand Slam this year.

Hmm perhaps if one of those wasn't on grass.

[temporary21]

Grass is probably the trickiest one at the moment. Theres a Scottish blokes whos in decent nick who he hasnt taken a set off and some Swiss bloke. Ting is hes already beaten Fed in the final, and hes broke clear of Murray for now

He has a much more real chance of the french than fed ever had when he was on 3 out of 4

[It Must Be Love]

If Wimbledon was Best of 3, Djokovic would be in trouble, but Best of 5 means he goes into Wimbledon as overwhelming favourite too, and with the confidence of a French Open title behind him would also be a big boost.

[CaledonianCraig]

Ting is

I didn't know you were Irish??

[CaledonianCraig]

We all know Novak is on a different level to everybody else but he has already had a draining time of it in the last few weeks so to expect him or favour him rather to win the French Open which is another physically draining tournament and then go to Wimbledon (probably on his weakest surface) and win that as well. Asking too much I think. But I may be wrong.

[TRuffin]

Im gonna get this in early. Feel free to quote me on this later on in the year whether im right or wrong.

If Novak wins the FO this year, which I think he will do, he's gonna win the Grand Slam this year

Wimbledon- there are guys that can take him. If he gets through that- I'd say odds are strong that he takes all 4.

[HM Murdock]

If Novak wins RG, I think it's more likely that he'll be a bit flat for Wimbledon. It will be such a big achievement for him, I think he'll find it hard to go into the heat of battle again so soon afterwards.

Also, the USO has proved a tough nut to crack. Djokovic has been the best HC player of the last 5 years but only has one USO title to his name. He's won Wimbledon more than USO!

Now I think about it, I'd say RG may in fact be his best opportunity of the remaining three slams!

[TRuffin]

If Wimbledon was Best of 3, Djokovic would be in trouble, but Best of 5 means he goes into Wimbledon as overwhelming favourite too, and with the confidence of a French Open title behind him would also be a big boost.

Also the longer rest between FO and Wimb would be a huge boost for him.. It's not quite the drain it was in the past to go from one to the other.

[temporary21]

Unless things change big time, he should walk the Us open to be honest.

[Henman Bill]

I enjoyed the match today, especially the first 7 games. After that it went slightly flat with the break at 5-3 or so in the first set, and if not quite inevitable outcome after that, was at least less exciting and open than when level. I thought Rafa started well and played well throughout much of the first set, some superb and exciting defence, and some really good shots, a lot of short balls though, and lacking a bit in consistency.

Up to about 4-3 in the first set I thought it was promising for him, getting back to form, but when away after that. I think it was 6-3 6-3 which totals 12-6 however after being 0-2 for the first 2 games after that it was 12-4 I think, which is worrying.

[Henman Bill]

Also I enjoyed some clay tennis, a refreshing change. That being said, I will probably skip the final unless I'm doing nothing, but I think I'd rather go out. Doesn't look set to be a classic.

[temporary21]

I have a soft spot for the Berd Brain as we know, but hes going to get mangled. 6-3 6-0 I think

[Henman Bill]

I think now that Djokovic has continued his form onto the clay and got a convincing win over Rafa, I think it's time to install him as (perhaps marginal) favourite for the FO, and I will stop laughing at Rafa when he claims not to be the favourite for it.

A bit early for CYGS speculations; then again I must admit it crossed my mind while watching the match. If he does win the FO he would be the first person to go to Wimbledon with the CYGS still in play for a long time. I make it Jim Courier, 1992. Good job I checked as I was going to say Mats Wilander, 1988.

[summerblues]

Was on a plane going for vacation while Rafa and Nole were playing so I did not see any of the match.

Happy to see Rafa lost but in the bigger scheme (i.e. French Open scheme) of things I do not think this says much.

I think this match was more important for Nole than for Rafa. Nole has previously beaten Rafa on clay even when Rafa was in better form and yet he failed to win at the FO thus far. So far this year Rafa has exhibited much poorer form so if Nole had still failed to beat him, it would not have been very encouraging for Nole for the FO.

Rafa still has time to get himself in good shape for the FO. He has been in similar situation before, he may come through yet again.

For me this did not change much in terms of FO favorites - I would still have Rafa (marginally) ahead of Nole, but with less than 50% chance against the field.

[Belovedluckyboy]

I don't think Novak is going to win the FO if Rafa is there to meet him. The court at RG is different from the court here at MC. I noticed that the MC court now plays quicker, more like a slow HC than clay, this favors Novak's game. The RG courts are bigger, slower and more windy, so Novak's HC style won't do well there against Rafa; against Fed maybe, as they both play the HC game on clay, just like in 2011 and 2012. Rafa knows how to win there at the FO. Moreover, Novak couldn't sustain his high level over five sets, we see that even on his favorite court at the AO, he struggled over five sets to beat Stan, and Murray almost had him there.

At Wimbledon, I think it very much depends on the draw. Novak struggled to put Delpo and Cilic away on grass, if he meets big servers or big hitters there on grass, he may struggle again to beat them. The strange thing about Novak at the USO is that he's able to reach the final there for four of the last five years but he only managed to win one. I think there are more players who can beat him there, unlike at the AO, FO and to a certain extent Wimbledon.

[Henman Bill]

When you say the RG courts are bigger, you mean more space around the court, outside the lines? Helping him stand further back? I'm not sure I get that point.

[socal1976]

Yeah I agree with HB I don't know about all this stuff regarding calendar year slam. I still think Novak has a huge job to do against Nadal at RG. Nadal will get more comfortable with the racquet and will get better, and in a five setter his competitive instincts and toughness have seen him through the last few years against Novak. I would make Novak a marginal favorite at this early stage for the RG. As for wimby and the USO, there is just so much that can happen between now and then. Djokovic is streaky player, and that sounds odd with how consistently he gets results. If he stays healthy and gets the added confidence of the FO I think he will be tough to beat, but to me Murray is the better grasscourt player naturally if he regains his form which he seems to be doing. If I had to make odds I would say at best Djokovic 20 to 1 dog to pull off the Slam. I wonder what the odds makers are giving for that right now.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Yes the space around the court is much larger, so it's a larger court and allows Rafa more space to retrieve shots, it's not easy to play there as the conditions can be quite windy. The court is slow and it's more difficult to hit through the court (and Rafa) there.

[Silver]

This is seriously impressive from Novak. He's only lost once match since Doha, which is frankly ridiculous, and has put every single top 10 player he's faced to the sword in the process. On multiple surfaces. It is looking very ominous indeed.

Anyone going for the 6-0, 6-0 punt tomorrow? I'm tempted!

[socal1976]

If Novak wins RG, I think it's more likely that he'll be a bit flat for Wimbledon. It will be such a big achievement for him, I think he'll find it hard to go into the heat of battle again so soon afterwards.

Also, the USO has proved a tough nut to crack. Djokovic has been the best HC player of the last 5 years but only has one USO title to his name. He's won Wimbledon more than USO!

Now I think about it, I'd say RG may in fact be his best opportunity of the remaining three slams!

I don't know about that HM, RG being his best shot. The fact is that beating Nadal over five sets on clay might be the toughest thing to do in sports. I think Nadal was much better especially early on in the match when he was keeping the ball deep and heavy. By the second set most of his shots were dropping short and Novak was able to move him around.

I think Novak can win the USO probably easier than RG, while neither of them will be easy. And at wimbeldon the only guy I really fear would be Murray. Fed is a year older and although he took it 5 sets last year against Novak, Novak should have won that match in 3 or 4 sets except for a typical brain fart. I think he can handle everyone else on grass, but I mean you are susceptible on that surface to someone who puts in a blinder in regards to serving but Novak does have the return to deal with it. I personally think the hardest of any of the three slams is still RG for Novak, and that is because Nadal is the greatest clay courter ever.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Retrieving shots not necessarily means standing further back, but retrieving the wide angled shots from the sides of the court. Remember how Rafa retrieved and hit a CC wide angled passing shot vs Fed at AO2012 SF? Those were the shots that Rafa could retrieve and return.

[socal1976]

This is seriously impressive from Novak. He's only lost once match since Doha, which is frankly ridiculous, and has put every single top 10 player he's faced to the sword in the process. On multiple surfaces. It is looking very ominous indeed.

Anyone going for the 6-0, 6-0 punt tomorrow? I'm tempted!

If I had to over and under it I would say that Berdy will get 4 games. I am thinking 6-3, 6-1. Novak usually returns Berdy's serve really well because while it is a big serve it is very predictable in its patterns. If Djokovic can beat Tomas, then Novak will have won every first tier (masters, WTF, slam) event going back to Paris in November. Incredible to think that he will have won a slam, a wtf, and 4 masters events on the trot. The lead in the rankings is starting to get astronomic.

[HM Murdock]

Now I think about it, I'd say RG may in fact be his best opportunity of the remaining three slams!

I don't know about that HM, RG being his best shot. The fact is that beating Nadal over five sets on clay might be the toughest thing to do in sports.  

I agree.

But the reason I think RG is his best shot is that I think there are fewer people who have a good chance of taking him out.

On grass, aside from good grass court players like Murray and Federer, anyone with a big serve and/or good groundies has a plausible chance of beating him.

USO, as a HC slam, should suit him but 4 defeats in 5 finals there is not a record that fills me with confidence.

On clay though, I think there is only one player who is likely to beat him Bo5, and that player is looking more vulnerable than previous years. Federer possibly would fancy his chances but he would need his A+ game to do so (his DC level would be very dangerous).

Aside from that, I think any other player beating him would be very big upset.

Of course, this is sport and upsets happen. I just feels less likely at RG to me.

[bogbrush]

If Novak wins RG, I think it's more likely that he'll be a bit flat for Wimbledon. It will be such a big achievement for him, I think he'll find it hard to go into the heat of battle again so soon afterwards.

Also, the USO has proved a tough nut to crack. Djokovic has been the best HC player of the last 5 years but only has one USO title to his name. He's won Wimbledon more than USO!

Now I think about it, I'd say RG may in fact be his best opportunity of the remaining three slams!

I don't know about that HM, RG being his best shot. The fact is that beating Nadal over five sets on clay might be the toughest thing to do in sports. I think Nadal was much better especially early on in the match when he was keeping the ball deep and heavy. By the second set most of his shots were dropping short and Novak was able to move him around.

I think Novak can win the USO probably easier than RG, while neither of them will be easy. And at wimbeldon the only guy I really fear would be Murray. Fed is a year older and although he took it 5 sets last year against Novak, Novak should have won that match in 3 or 4 sets except for a typical brain fart. I think he can handle everyone else on grass, but I mean you are susceptible on that surface to someone who puts in a blinder in regards to serving but Novak does have the return to deal with it. I personally think the hardest of any of the three slams is still RG for Novak, and that is because Nadal is the greatest clay courter ever.

RG will be straightforward for Novak if he meets Rafa; Nadal was going backwards today as the match wore on, he simply had to put far too much into the rallies, in part because he has no penetration with his backhand any more.
There's no way he could handle five sets playing like that.

[HM Murdock]

On another note, if Novak wins tomorrow, he will be the holder of two slams, the WTF and five Masters titles.

That's a larger haul than Rafa's brilliant 2013.

We tend to think in calendar years but Novak has produced a heck of a 12 month period.

[socal1976]

Now I think about it, I'd say RG may in fact be his best opportunity of the remaining three slams!

I don't know about that HM, RG being his best shot. The fact is that beating Nadal over five sets on clay might be the toughest thing to do in sports.  

I agree.

But the reason I think RG is his best shot is that I think there are fewer people who have a good chance of taking him out.

On grass, aside from good grass court players like Murray and Federer, anyone with a big serve and/or good groundies has a plausible chance of beating him.

USO, as a HC slam, should suit him but 4 defeats in 5 finals there is not a record that fills me with confidence.

On clay though, I think there is only one player who is likely to beat him Bo5, and that player is looking more vulnerable than previous years. Federer possibly would fancy his chances but he would need his A+ game to do so (his DC level would be very dangerous).

Aside from that, I think any other player beating him would be very big upset.

Of course, this is sport and upsets happen. I just feels less likely at RG to me.

Yes Murdoch I have the most confidence going into this time of the season since 2011. And I do agree that there is a gulf of class right now between Novak and Nadal and the rest of the clay field. But I still think that when you got a guy who has lost one 5 set match in his career on clay that its tougher. Yes more guys can beat him on the other surfaces but that doesn't outweigh the monumental hurdle Nadal is at RG. I have seen Novak run Nadal from pillar to post and hit 100 shots that should have been winners that Nadal kept retrieving or came up with a great winner of his own. At some point that gets to Novak mentally, and we know that he has ups and downs with his focus in matches, while Nadal brings the energy and focus consistently. That is why Novak has an easier time against Nadal over three sets than over 5.

[bogbrush]

You're thinking of another guy. Nadal now just doesn't have enough sting on his ground strokes. He was impotent today and Djokovic didn't even play that great.

[socal1976]

If Novak wins RG, I think it's more likely that he'll be a bit flat for Wimbledon. It will be such a big achievement for him, I think he'll find it hard to go into the heat of battle again so soon afterwards.

Also, the USO has proved a tough nut to crack. Djokovic has been the best HC player of the last 5 years but only has one USO title to his name. He's won Wimbledon more than USO!

Now I think about it, I'd say RG may in fact be his best opportunity of the remaining three slams!

I don't know about that HM, RG being his best shot. The fact is that beating Nadal over five sets on clay might be the toughest thing to do in sports. I think Nadal was much better especially early on in the match when he was keeping the ball deep and heavy. By the second set most of his shots were dropping short and Novak was able to move him around.

I think Novak can win the USO probably easier than RG, while neither of them will be easy. And at wimbeldon the only guy I really fear would be Murray. Fed is a year older and although he took it 5 sets last year against Novak, Novak should have won that match in 3 or 4 sets except for a typical brain fart. I think he can handle everyone else on grass, but I mean you are susceptible on that surface to someone who puts in a blinder in regards to serving but Novak does have the return to deal with it. I personally think the hardest of any of the three slams is still RG for Novak, and that is because Nadal is the greatest clay courter ever.

RG will be straightforward for Novak if he meets Rafa; Nadal was going backwards today as the match wore on, he simply had to put far too much into the rallies, in part because he has no penetration with his backhand any more.
There's no way he could handle five sets playing like that.

I can't agree with that BB. I think there is a cumulative effect of playing Nadal that adds up over a five set match. Yes Nadal gets worn down and if he has to retrieve like this over the course of the whole match he probably won't win. But I have seen Djokovic run this guy from pillar to post at RG and eventually Nadal keeps fighting and retrieving till Novak cracks mentally. If Novak maintains his A game and doesn't have the nervous jitters like running into the net or throwing in the odd break of serve with silly errors and shot selection then Novak should win. But to me Nadal over 5 on clay is equally as tough a test mentally as it is physically and it has been that mental side in big matches that at times has let Novak down.

[socal1976]

You're thinking of another guy. Nadal now just doesn't have  enough sting on his ground strokes. He was impotent today and Djokovic didn't even play that great.

Yeah but Nadal plays anyone else except Djokovic with the way he started this match he would win. I actually think that Nadal was hitting with pretty good venom and impressive depth early on in this match. When he started dropping short in the second set then he was continually on the defensive.

[HM Murdock]

The only thing that stops me agreeing with you immediately, BB, is last year.

Nadal looked vulnerable through the whole clay swing but suddenly found some form in the SF of RG and held on to it long enough to win.

I'll admit his starting point is lower this year but there's still time for him to raise his game.

[CaledonianCraig]

And lets not forget what this defeat amounts to. It was a defeat against a player who is a long way clear as No.1 in the rankings, on a growing unbeaten run and on a surface Novak is probably second best in the world on. I still say this is all about lack of confidence/belief and take that away from Rafa and that has always been a big part of his game.

[socal1976]

And lets not forget what this defeat amounts to. It was a defeat against a player who is a long way clear as No.1 in the rankings, on a growing unbeaten run and on a surface Novak is probably second best in the world on. I still say this is all about lack of confidence/belief and take that away from Rafa and that has always been a big part of his game.

I agree Craig. I mean Nadal is adjusting to a new racquet and has been down in form. I said before this match that if Nadal lost to Djoko here it would not be determinative of what happens next month in Paris. A couple of big points going the other way and this match would have been a story.

[CaledonianCraig]

It is a measure of his greatness that he can still reach a Masters semi on clay when perhaps in second or third gear (in terms of the quality he can normally play with).

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