Monte Carlo Masters thread

[It Must Be Love]

First topic message reminder :

http://www.montecarlorolexmasters.mc

All the top players are playing, with the exception of Andy Murray, who's busy getting married.

Beautiful tournament, love scenery, and a nice start to the European Clay Court season.

[LuvSports!]

I don't think it's that bad a time for Rafa to play Novak. He mentioned he was drained in Miami and sometimes a week off doesn't quite do the trick. First time back on clay as well so it could be a good chance for him.

[socal1976]

No disrespects socal for me I would like Novak to play as he is (agreed he is not at his best) for Rafa to raise his game a notch or two.. then if they meet in the semis.. ??????? I would like to see Rafa get a tournament under his belt some time soon

Yeah Haddie I am stunned that he hasn't won anything in so long. I don't think MC result will make a difference as to who wins the French. I mean Novak crushed Nadal at MC two years ago and couldn't beat him at RG. But I think for Nadal he just needs to start putting in a streak of matches where he plays well. In past years he did such a good job of building momentum to RG once he had a couple of clay masters under his belt and he was hitting confidently and feeling good physically you felt that RG was inevitably going to be his.

[Haddie-nuff]

I totally agree. So much depends on a few wins for him to help build his confidence.. the game still needs him and its so not like him to lack self belief. Im keeping everything crossed

[HM Murdock]

Yes, I have to agree with Socal. In fact, I'd say the Masters results are almost irrelevant to Rafa's chances at RG.

Rafa has proved many times that he plays his way into form. Last year for example, I thought he looked sub-par for the whole clay season and then suddenly clicked into gear in the SF at RG.

I think the only factor that might be significant is if he meets Novak at MC, Madrid or Rome and gets beaten convincingly. That may sow a few seeds of doubt should they meet at RG.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Novak did beat Rafa convincingly at MC in 2013, Rafa still went on to win at RG. Rafa lost to Novak at Rome last year just before the FO, he still managed to win at RG. Rafa's confidence was all time low in 2011 when he was beaten convincingly by Novak at Madrid and Rome consecutively, and he played like crap during the first few rounds at RG, yet he rounded into form just in time for the SF and Final. Somehow, Rafa knows that RG is his last fortress, he'll fight tooth and nail to protect it, and he only failed once in ten years!

Rafa isn't playing badly so far this year, it's just his nerves that he needs to overcome. I think by the FO, he should be steady enough mentally to control his nerve, just like he used to do all along in the past,

[Silver]

Gulbis has lost 6-1, 6-0...wow.

[Guest82]

Gulbis has lost 6-1, 6-0...wow.

Nice. I had a bet on Haider-Maurer. Can't make Gulbis favourite against anyone right now.

Think he my drop off the radar by this time next year.

[Henman Bill]

This is clay. This is Rafa's most successful ever tournament. Anything less than a title is a poor result for Rafa here, even given his form and fitness. I think if he loses 7-5 to Djoko in the third and looks like some temporary fitness issue might have been the cause for it then you might just about be able to put together an argument that this is progress.

Djokovic is the favourite (http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-monte-carlo/monte-carlo-rolex-masters/winner) but not by much.

[HM Murdock]

I do question odds that make Djokovic favourite.

I don't see any player winning the IW and Miami double and then, one week later, entering and winning a Masters level clay tournament.

Has anyone ever completed an IW/Miami/Monte Carlo triple?

[CAS]

I do question odds that make Djokovic favourite.

I don't see any player winning the IW and Miami double and then, one week later, entering and winning a Masters level clay tournament.

Has anyone ever completed an IW/Miami/Monte Carlo triple?

Nah no one ever has, they were mentioning it the other day that he would be the first to win the first 3 masters 1000s of the year, Federer's tight 4 set loss to Rafa in the '06 final was the closest anyone has come

[Guest82]

I think Djokovic may suffer a surprise loss in the early rounds.

Although, there is quite a long gap between Monte Carlo and Madrid, so maybe he can give it one push this week and then recharge ready for Madrid/Rome and Roland Garros.

[temporary21]

To be truthful I dont think any of these masters have much bearing on either Novak or Rafa going into the French, they need time to get used to the clay again and thats it really

[Haddie-nuff]

Rafa needs a little more than time I think he needs a winning streak.. Not sure that it is so important to Novak

[Henman Bill]

I can see Novak having a lull in the early rounds. But he'll likely get through anyway. He's had a week of rest and would have to lull quite a lot to be taken out, unless he gets unlucky with the draw and gets a clay fiend in hot form.

[Jahu]

Djoko will do a show up, he owes that to the Prince Albert II, and probably act a 3 set loss in second/third round and get some rest for Madrid, before he gets embarrassed by a Nadal loss in SF.

I think this is Fed's best chance to bag a MC, Nadal is so so, Stan is on the longest GS after party ever, unless say Raonic/Isner/Big server crash the party.

[Henman Bill]

Nah, I say Fed had his chance. Warwinka in the final wasn't it? That's certainly a chance with no disrespect to Stan.

Not sure about resting for Madrid, I would argue MC is a slightly bigger tournament. OK, in theory it's technically a notch lower, but in real prestige RG >> Rome > MC > Madrid > Barcelona >> All other clay tournies.

Even Barcelona, a tournament with great history, is only below Madrid because Madrid has some moneybags boss and got Masters status. And MC slightly below Rome also debatable.

[Haddie-nuff]

Whatever though HB prestigious or not. there is not one player who would not add a Masters to their tally of successes. They all count

[Henman Bill]

Just having a look at the draw.
Unlucky for Djokovic and Rafa to be in the same half, but gives an opportunity for Fed and others in the bottom
First quarter looks a cruise for Djokovic, surprise for me if he doesn't get to the semi.
Second quarter not too bad for Rafa, but needs to be wary of Isner and Ferrer.
Third quarter. Here a real opportunity as Raonic no 4 seed is the top seed and slow clay may be his weakest surface. Robredo to have a run?
Fourth quarter. Easily the most attractive: this is the quarter where I want to watch the matches. Verdasco, Fognini, Warwinka in the first part of it, then Monfils, Dolgopolov, Federer in the other part. Tasty.

[Guest82]

Nah, I say Fed had his chance. Warwinka in the final wasn't it? That's certainly a chance with no disrespect to Stan.

Not sure about resting for Madrid, I would argue MC is a slightly bigger tournament. OK, in theory it's technically a notch lower, but in real prestige RG >> Rome > MC > Madrid > Barcelona >> All other clay tournies.

Even Barcelona, a tournament with great history, is only below Madrid because Madrid has some moneybags boss and got Masters status. And MC slightly below Rome also debatable.

I think Djokovic may be wary of burning out by winning every tournament he enters - like 2011. A nice tactical loss in round 3 would mean he has fulfilled obligations by showing up (he lives in Monte Carlo too) and doesn't have to a) suffer a potential loss to his biggest rival or b) end up battling to another title but take some valuable miles out of the tank.

I am guessing he probably doesn't think like this, but it might be his best move. Madrid may not have the prestige, but it gives him a few weeks more rest...

[HM Murdock]

I don't think he'll tank.

He'll be in it to win it.

I don't think tiredness will an overly large factor. It's a tournament where he can stay in his own apartment and walk to the stadium!

If there's a vulnerability, it's being caught cold on the surface. He only got back from Miami about a week ago, so he can't have spent much time adjusting to clay.

[Guest82]

I doubt if many players would ever deliberately tank, but showing up only 70% prepared, both physically and mentally, would likely lead to an early loss.

I don't see anyone that will trouble Djokovic before Rafa in the semi - but you never know.

[Jahu]

Nadal has lately decided to open up his murky heart, again today:

Rafael Nadal: I'm no longer favourite on clay.

Rafael Nadal feels he should not be considered as the automatic favuorite to dominate the game on clay.

"I’m not the favourite for anything. I have been playing worse than the rest of the rivals of mine. The pressure is not for me - I am arriving here with the motivation to do something better than what I am doing.”

Mouratoglou: ´The difficulties of Rafael Nadal? It might just be a strategy´.

I think Nadal is scared.

[CAS]

I think there is a degree of pressure on Rafa, theres little pressure in regards to him not playing well so every match win is a bonus, however could you imagine the tumble down the rankings if he performs poorly this clay court campaign? I don't see it mind you, I think he'll win Barcelona and go into Madrid 75 percent back to his best.

[Calder106]

Nadal has lately decided to open up his murky heart, again today:

Rafael Nadal: I'm no longer favourite on clay.

Rafael Nadal feels he should not be considered as the automatic favuorite to dominate the game on clay.

"I’m not the favourite for anything. I have been playing worse than the rest of the rivals of mine. The pressure is not for me - I am arriving here with the motivation to do something better than what I am doing.”

Mouratoglou: ´The difficulties of Rafael Nadal? It might just be a strategy´.

I think Nadal is scared.

Would you make him favourite then ? Yes it's clay which is his best surface but he has not been invincible on that over the past year. Wouldn't be surprised if he did win but definitely wouldn't say he was the favourite.

[Guest82]

Nadal has lately decided to open up his murky heart, again today:

Rafael Nadal: I'm no longer favourite on clay.

Rafael Nadal feels he should not be considered as the automatic favuorite to dominate the game on clay.

"I’m not the favourite for anything. I have been playing worse than the rest of the rivals of mine. The pressure is not for me - I am arriving here with the motivation to do something better than what I am doing.”

Mouratoglou: ´The difficulties of Rafael Nadal? It might just be a strategy´.

I think Nadal is scared.

Would you make him favourite then ?  Yes it's clay which is his best surface but he has not been invincible on that over the past year. Wouldn't be surprised if he did win but definitely wouldn't say he was the favourite.

Right now I make Rafa favourite for the French. At worst joint favourite with Djokovic.

Probably make Djokovic favourite for Monte Carlo though.

[Calder106]

I'd agree with that.

[Henman Bill]

Rafa always downplays his own chances to try and take the pressure off himself. Standard comments from him. I could have told you in advance he would have said that, it's tedious and predictable by now.

[Henman Bill]

I think Djokovic can tank at Madrid instead. There is no reason he particularly has to tank here. The IW-Miami-Monte Carlo schedule is not at all gruelling compared to other parts of the calendar being 1 3-set tournament every 2 weeks.

[CaledonianCraig]

It would not surprise me in the slightest if neither Djokovic or Nadal won in Monte Carlo for varying reasons. General fatigue may just get the better of Novak in one of his tougher matches at the business end of the tournament and Rafa just isn't in the form yet to win a Masters (regardless of surface). If he can reach the semis or better and go down fighting I would imagine he'd see that as a step forward in his progression.

[Belovedluckyboy]

No matter how badly Rafa plays on clay, he still would be able to reach the QFs at least, so I don't see him tumbling down the rankings that much. He has nothing much to defend after the clay season so he's going to pick up points and goes up the rankings again.

Other players are not exactly on fire either, and they have more points to defend on non clay surfaces. Fed, Kei, Cilic, Raonic, Ferrer, Murray, they have many points to defend from now to the rest of the year.

I don't think Rafa will do badly on clay this season. He was doing fine at SA clay court swing. I think he'll fine that winning feeling again on clay.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Why is Rafa not ready to win a Masters on clay? Unless Novak is still on fire and takes Rafa out, if Rafa plays to 80% of his normal level, he should be able to beat almost all those guys out there.

None of the top players have played on clay prior to MC, and those who played last week are tired by now if they reached the final rounds last week. Unless it is the same old nervous Rafa who comes out to play, I think it's possible that Rafa wins this MC in the end.

[CAS]

on a side note does anyone ever think to themselves, one of these days Cilic is going fall over those big laces of his? They drive me mad!

[Josiah Maiestas]

Guarantee in private he is saying "I wonder if Novak will fall for it again" If his FH remains what it was at last years french then he will cruise to the title barely dropping a set, I just hope we don't get the same final as last year. Someone new please

[Josiah Maiestas]

on a side note does anyone ever think to themselves, one of these days Cilic is going fall over those big laces of his? They drive me mad!

Throw the book at him ATP, he has a lace length advantage

[Haddie-nuff]

Rafa always downplays his own chances to try and take the pressure off himself. Standard comments from him. I could have told you in advance he would have said that, it's tedious and predictable by now.

This HB I find quite amusing, everywhere you read that at the moment Rafa is not playing well, he may not win FO, he may not win here or Madrid..if he wins anything at all !!! but as soon as he agrees with those comments which have been widely publicised, , you find it tedious and that he is taking pressure of himself. I suggest the pundits and the media are already doing that. Do give him a break.

[TRuffin]

Rafa always downplays his own chances to try and take the pressure off himself. Standard comments from him. I could have told you in advance he would have said that, it's tedious and predictable by now.

This HB I find quite amusing, everywhere you read that at the moment  Rafa is not playing well, he may not win FO, he may not win here or Madrid..if he wins anything at all !!! but as soon as he agrees with those comments which have been widely publicised, , you find it tedious and that he is taking pressure of himself. I suggest the pundits and the media  are already doing that.  Do give him a break.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[Henman Bill]

Rafa has gone into a clay court season without a trophy for 6 or 9 months so many times, and then cleaned up the clay season. It does feel slightly different this year. There is an argument to me that he doesn't have the same mental focus anymore, that he has half an eye on retirement. However he has to be the favourite for the FO until he actually loses it. You cannot go into the FO with 9 out of the last 10 titles and not claim to be the favourite, when no-one else in the draw has ever won the event. No-one will buy it. Fair enough to downplay your chances a touch but Rafa overdoes it.

I might be wrong, but I won't believe until I see someone else waving that FO trophy in front of the cameras.

I think not favourite at MC given his current form and last couple of years there is fair enough. But he is RG favourite given his record there and the fact that his IW/Miami form will be a distant memory by then.

[Haddie-nuff]

It does feel slightly different this year

Yet you seem not to want to give him the benefit of the doubt
Rafa has admitted its different this year, his lack of confidence, this has been endorsed by Uncle T Never have I known Rafa suffer with that problem.. I can think of things that the other top players "overdo" but see not point in commenting on it.

[Belovedluckyboy]

I don't think he's thinking of retirement yet. I think he may retire only after 2017. He still has his endorsement deals to consider. Also, I'm sure and he's sure that he still can win some more major titles and gets back to his best at least one more time. Fed serves as an inspiration to many, that if one reinvents oneself, it's possible to stay or remain relevant. I'm sure that Rafa won't want to retire feeling down and out; I don't think he want us to remember him in that way.

Furthermore, Rafa's game is intact, it's just finding a way to win when it matters and his confidence will be back. Someone on the STICKY thread ask what would Rafa do after his winning ways dried up? I'll say Rafa will always find ways to improve his game, in fact he has a good all round game, very efficient at the net, so going forward, he may also play more inside or up the court instead of just staying at the baseline. His doubles play has helped built his confidence playing at the net.

He's capable of more aggressive play; in fact he's an aggressive baseliner since young and was already not afraid to approach the net when he was young. It's just that with the slowing down of the courts, approaching the net risk being passed and so players prefer to stay at the baseline.

It's not doom and gloom for Rafa, he's more positive than many of his fans. I feel he'll do fine this clay season. Let's see...

[Josiah Maiestas]

I have a feeling Rafa will straight set Hardcourtovic if they most likely meet this week. This is still his territory despite not winning the past 2 years here.

Don't stress Kneedal fans, this week will be good to you.

Yours Truly
Mystic Maiestas

[Matchpoint]

I think he'll win Barcelona and go into Madrid 75 percent back to his best.

Nishikori will have a lot to say about that. Not playing MC, he will come to Barcelona to defend his crown fresher than Nadal, I think. The first Asian to win a clay title in ATP history will definitely be extra motivated, having just reached the highest ranking in his career, overtaking Nadal along the way.  

Remember also that Kei lost Madrid in the final due to injury. The win was within arm's reach, he played better than Nadal otherwise. So I think he'll want to have another go there trying the best he can this time. In short, Nadal ain't going to have it easy. Bullets coming from all sides when he's confidence level is down. 

[Josiah Maiestas]

I think he'll win Barcelona and go into Madrid 75 percent back to his best.

Nishikori will have a lot to say about that. Not playing MC, he will come to Barcelona to defend his crown fresher than Nadal, I think. The first Asian to win a clay title in ATP history will definitely be extra motivated, having just reached the highest ranking in his career, overtaking Nadal along the way.  

Remember also that Kei lost Madrid in the final due to injury. The win was within arm's reach, he played better than Nadal otherwise. So I think he'll want to have another go there trying the best he can this time. In short, Nadal ain't going to have it easy. Bullets coming from all sides when he's confidence level is down. 

Kei won it with only beating 1 of the Spanish clay contingent and that was Bautista. You can forgive winning clay titles not beating the best, but Giraldo as a finalist? Suppose you take what you get

[Matchpoint]

Of course, the Rule doesn't tell you who to beat, does it? Ain't his fault none of the others was good enough to reach the final. Pls give credit when credit is due. It would surprise no one if he beats Nadal at the final this time.

[Belovedluckyboy]

I'm not surprised that Kei pushed Rafa close last year at Madrid, given how badly Rafa played at MC and Barcelona. I don't know about Kei's form this year on clay, but he too failed to defend his SF points at Miami, having reached the QF instead, so it's not like he played well to overtake Rafa in the rankings, rather it was Rafa who played badly and lost early so lost a good 555 ranking points. I think if Rafa plays well enough at MC, he'll regain that Barcelona title, Kei is not as good a clay court player as Rafa, that I'm sure.

[Belovedluckyboy]

I'll be surprised if Kei reaches the final this time, and should he reaches the final to face off with Rafa, then I'll say Rafa will beat him there. If Rafa is good enough to reach the final, then that means he has already overcome his problems to get there, and so I don't expect Kei to beat him, I mean Rafa has won Barcelona eight times, beating various clay court specialists, I think he can handle Kei.

[Josiah Maiestas]

Of course, the Rule doesn't tell you who to beat, does it? Ain't his fault none of the others was good enough to reach the final. Pls give credit when credit is due. It would surprise no one if he beats Nadal at the final this time.

He played very well at Barcelona and for a set and a half VS Nadal at Madrid, just saying you can't rate Kei too highly yet on clay just because he won Barcelona. I give credit for his performance at Madrid and the USO of course guvnor

[Matchpoint]

OMG, that looks like PJ/underwear Wawrinka is wearing. 

[Jahu]

Fed looks acceptable for a SF.

[greengoblin]

I believe the key to djokovic beating nadal on clay is his backhand down the line, but its just been so dodgy for the last 3 years. You could see in the RG final last year he lost confidence in his backhand and the final slipped away from him.

[sirfredperry]

Chardy may have beaten Fed on clay last year but managed just three games against him today.

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