Djokovic needs to take a page from fed and skip Madrid

by socal1976 Mon 20 Apr 2015, 6:49 pm

First topic message reminder :

I really don't see the point for Novak of playing in Madrid.

1. He has played a lot of tennis this season, more than anyone else

2. His goal is the FO not racking up a record haul of masters

3. Madrid's conditions are not a got warm up for the FO as the ball plays completely differently at Madrid

4. Nadal's homecourt is where Nadal would be most likely able to turn the tide on Novak and regain some confidence

5. He can't go on this pace forever, I mean if he goes the distance in Madrid and in Rome by the working end of the FO and by wimby he runs the risk of serious burnout.

6. The lions share of points on tour get decided in short 4 and half month burst from mid April to early September almost all the points during the season are played out in rapid fire from early spring to late summer.

7. Madrid's only value since it is not a good indicator or warmup for RG is for points. The guy has such a big lead that it is unlikely he will be caught for the number 1 ranking

8. The Spanish fans are enormous Aholes to him and who needs the grief

by Belovedluckyboy Thu 23 Apr 2015, 2:17 am

CAS, it depends on the surface, on clay he'll attack the SHBH of his opponents, because of the high bounces, not so much on the other surfaces.

by Belovedluckyboy Thu 23 Apr 2015, 2:38 am

SoCal/HM,

Do note that at the slams, Rafa was the one who's more aggressive on the get go. After his three losses at the slams to Novak, Rafa had come out all guns blazing and won the first set of three out of their four encounters.

At the Masters, it was Novak who did that, the exceptions were MC2012, Rome 2012 and Montreal 2013 when Rafa was the aggressor and won. Novak's problem is that he couldn't sustain his high level throughout a BO5 match after his stellar 2011, its not only against Rafa but also against Stan and Murray, so he was also stretched to five sets many times playing against Stan especially.

As for Rafa's tactics or strategies, of course he needs to practice them, like that FHDTL shot; his big serve at USO 2010 too, but honestly, who would have thought that Rafa would have that big serve prior to that USO? Or that Rafa was hitting that FHDTL shot that well and that frequently during last year's FO final? And the BHCC and even a few BHDTL shots that well at FO 2013 SF and F?

by Belovedluckyboy Thu 23 Apr 2015, 3:01 am

Novak vs Rafa, in the past Novak was already having the upper hand on the HCs. He mostly beat Rafa in straight sets on the non slam HCs. Rafa was having the upper hand on clay. Rafa's CCBH was solid in the past and won't breakdown that easily but he lacked a BHDTL shot, so he relied on his footwork to run around to hit his FHDTL shot instead at the BH side and on clay the slower surface, he had time to do that with success against Novak.

In the past that would work for Rafa but with Novak now at his peak and moving so well, Rafa would be at a losing end having to run so much to cover his BHDTL shot. Of course Rafa has his FHDTL to redirect the ball away from Novak's BH to avoid Novak's own BHDTL shots but whether it's Novak or Rafa, they need confidence to hit that DTL shot well.

Rafa is now at a losing end having a weaker BH wing, so needs to be more aggressive and tries to dictate play. He tried at MC by coming forward more with some success, but his legs gave way. I'll wait an see how he fares at Barcelona, Madrid and Rome; he's still too defensive vs Almagro at Barcelona though at the end he did hit more winners to win in the end.

by socal1976 Thu 23 Apr 2015, 7:06 am

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Novak vs Rafa, in the past Novak was already having the upper hand on the HCs. He mostly beat Rafa in straight sets on the non slam HCs. Rafa was having the upper hand on clay. Rafa's CCBH was solid in the past and won't breakdown that easily but he lacked a BHDTL shot, so he relied on his footwork to run around to hit his FHDTL shot instead at the BH side and on clay the slower surface, he had time to do that with success against Novak.

In the past that would work for Rafa but with Novak now at his peak and moving so well, Rafa would be at a losing end having to run so much to cover his BHDTL shot. Of course Rafa has his FHDTL to redirect the ball away from Novak's BH to avoid Novak's own BHDTL shots but whether it's Novak or Rafa, they need confidence to hit that DTL shot well.

Rafa is now at a losing end having a weaker BH wing, so needs to be more aggressive and tries to dictate play. He tried at MC by coming forward more with some success, but his legs gave way. I'll wait an see how he fares at Barcelona, Madrid and Rome; he's still too defensive vs Almagro at Barcelona though at the end he did hit more winners to win in the end.

That is the point I discussed in my post. Nadal more than anything would win those five set matches on clay because of the cumulative effect of his defensive skills and mental toughness. He would eventually frustrate Novak and when Djokovic would have a typical lull like he has Nadal would take the match. If you look at matches off of clay over 5 sets since 2011 Novak has had the advantage. The combination of the surface, five sets, and Nadal's defensive and competitive skills eventually throw Novak off and gain the upper hand. So in recent years if you look at Novak v. Nadal matchup, Novak has had the upper hand in 3 set matches on and off of clay, and in 5 setters off of clay, while Nadal has had the edge in 5 really only 5 set matches on clay.

Novak I think in 2013 was surprised at how Nadal changed his patterns, I don't think if Nadal starts hitting his down the line forehand all of sudden it will again catch him by surprise and throw him for a loop. While Nadal's DTFH is devastating against a player like Djokovic if he doesn't hit it perfect you are hitting it to Novak's FH with your entire cross court open. It is a shot that Nadal might hesitate to use against Novak because if it isn't a winner or an unreturnable shot Novak has the entire cross court open with his forehand and even an average forehand from Novak cross court with decent angle will put Nadal on the defense. That is maybe why he hesitates to use it more often. Especially, in light of the fact that Djokovic being as balanced as he is doesn't have to leave a great deal of space open on the side. He can stand flat in the center of the court because his backhand is so good.

by Belovedluckyboy Thu 23 Apr 2015, 8:13 am

Exactly, and thats what I meant by Rafa holding back something until the slams, ie the surprise factor. Had he been hitting the FHDTL shots that often prior to the slams, Novak would come prepared for it. Likewise for his big serve at the USO in 2010, he caught everyone by surprise there.

As Rafa grows older now and with inevitable physical decline in speed and power, he has to rely more on tactics to win his matches, esp. vs players like Novak, Murray and the other top players. Lets see what he can come out with this time.

by HM Murdock Thu 23 Apr 2015, 10:46 am

socal1976 wrote:It is interesting that Novak has such a reputation for mental toughness, I think he can be mentally tough but not always is he a great competitor.

It's a condundrum with Novak.

He's shows great mental toughness in digging himself out of holes.

But often the reason he is in a hole, is because he dropped himself in it with strange wobbles and losses of concentration!

by CAS Thu 23 Apr 2015, 2:26 pm

I agree, he is the best at ridiculous comebacks but he shouldn't really be in the situation in the first place. If you think about Federer and Nadal when they were dominating they rarely allowed opponents to get back into it. Novak seems to allow players a chance. He seems to double fault at some crucial moments, he's done it several times against Nadal on match point too.

However, with Rafa and Roger you could sometimes sense it wasn't there day and they wouldn't come out of a certain match, but with Novak its never over til its over!

by Haddie-nuff Thu 23 Apr 2015, 3:31 pm

However, with Rafa and Roger you could sometimes sense it wasn't there day and they wouldn't come out of a certain match, but with Novak its never over til its over!

Totally disagree seen both of them face match points and came back to win on a number of occasions

by CAS Thu 23 Apr 2015, 3:47 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:However, with Rafa and Roger you could sometimes sense it wasn't there day and they wouldn't come out of a certain match, but with Novak its never over til its over!

Totally disagree seen both of them face match points and came back to win on a number of occasions

"sometimes..."

Of course they are great fighters too but Novak has a certain unpredictability about him when he's down, can start spraying winners all over the place from nowhere

by Haddie-nuff Thu 23 Apr 2015, 4:02 pm

Sorry I don't think Novak has any more ability to dig himself out of a tight match than the other two. I think there is just a little bit of pro Novak about that claim; Wink

I think even socal would have difficulty in agreeing
They are all champions because of that ability.
Roger once said of Rafa "you never know you have won against him until you play that last point" but that can be said of Roger too imo

by CAS Thu 23 Apr 2015, 4:25 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:Sorry I don't think Novak has any more ability to dig himself out of a tight match than the other two. I think there is just a little bit of pro Novak about that claim; I think even socal would have difficulty in agreeing
They are all champions because of that ability.
Roger once said of Rafa "you never know you have won against him until you play that last point" but that can be said of Roger too imo

I don't support Novak so that was a neutral view, it's not an insult on any player just they are different. When Roger and Rafa get on top they very rarely let it get close. The unpredictability works both ways in that he also starts spraying shots into the net out of nowhere too.

by Haddie-nuff Thu 23 Apr 2015, 4:35 pm

Well I suppose it depends on what colour your specs are eh???!! Wink

by CAS Thu 23 Apr 2015, 4:36 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:Well I suppose it depends on what colour your specs are eh???!!

evidently so..

by socal1976 Thu 23 Apr 2015, 7:14 pm

Honestly, Haddie I don't see CAS, Murdoch, or myself being too complimentary to Novak. In fact, I think we are criticizing him. I mean the match he lost to Berdych up a set and 5-2 serving for the set in a three set match to a guy he has dominated, I can't see Fed or Nadal doing that. They are both much more consistent in their focus and don't have these swings of concentration and focus. Yes, everybody has ups and downs but with Novak both the frequency and how bad he can play for awhile to even overmatched opponents I thing is beyond something regular or normal particularly for a great champion. It is an interesting dichotomy in that the guy who gets such consistent results can actually be so up and down. It sounds crazy but if you watch him enough you will see what I am saying. He almost gifts a break in every match from just really bad errors or doubles. That is why I think he does better in 3 setters than in 5 setters against his top rivals. His top rivals can take advantage of those lulls better than other players and they can pressure him. Most of the time against pretty much anyone he can have these lulls and still get through pretty easily. But not when it comes to a 5 setter against his top rivals, especially Nadal on clay.

by Haddie-nuff Thu 23 Apr 2015, 7:34 pm

Socal I didn't say you were, in fact, where Novak is concerned I know you can be his worst critic as well as his greatest fan.. that is why I made the comment I did. Im not criticising him anyway I am merely saying that the comment that CAS made could not just be about Novak specifically....Ive seen Roger and Rafa (not of late that is true) but come back from "lost causes" to win. That's what makes ALL THREE OF THEM the champions they are. There should not be any more read into what I said than that thumbsup

by socal1976 Thu 23 Apr 2015, 8:10 pm

Ok fair enough Haddie. Good post.

by Jahu Thu 23 Apr 2015, 8:11 pm

HN, stop hiding on Djokovic thread and come and explain the Barcelona thingy, asap. warning

by LuvSports! Mon 27 Apr 2015, 2:03 pm

http://www.marca.com/2015/04/27/tenis/1430133677.html

Novak not playing Madrid.

by HM Murdock Mon 27 Apr 2015, 2:10 pm

Good decision.

No points to defend and will not be penalised because he meets the years of service rule.

by CaledonianCraig Mon 27 Apr 2015, 2:13 pm

Yes I think a wise decision by Novak. Rest up for the bigger challenges that lie ahead.

by socal1976 Mon 27 Apr 2015, 11:37 pm

Great decision by the brain trust it made such little sense to participate in madrid

by temporary21 Tue 28 Apr 2015, 12:32 am

A good move, to be honest he could rest up right to RG and be ready for it at this point. Ive no doubt he will attend Rome though. If Rafa does pick up Madrid by chance though...

by Henman Bill Tue 28 Apr 2015, 2:56 am

Looks like he read this thread and listened to you Socal. The other thing is, maybe he still holds a slight grudge after the 2012 blue clay when he said: "To me that's not tennis. Either I come out with football shoes or I invite Chuck Norris to advise me how to play on this court."

By the way for those that don't read Spanish that Marca article says that with Djokovic withdrawal Federer is now the favourite followed by Murray then Nadal. Oh dear, how the clay mighty have fallen! They are going by seedings of course, but still favorito is the word used.

by Henman Bill Tue 28 Apr 2015, 3:05 am

Another quote from Djokovic from blue clay 2012 Madrid:

"I want to forget this week as soon as possible and move on to the real clay courts," Djokovic said.

"They can do what they like, I won't be here next year if this clay stays."

by Belovedluckyboy Tue 28 Apr 2015, 3:08 am

Nah, theyre just going by seeding. To me Kei ranked above Murray on clay.

by socal1976 Tue 28 Apr 2015, 3:55 am

HB, this tournament was just screaming to me that Novak should not attend. I think if Novak holds a grudge it is to the treatment he has received from the Spanish fans who the last couple of years have been beyond what is typical for the etiquette of the sport. I mean the courts they have changed the last couple of years so that is not a current problem, I mean he attended in 2013 and 2014 so it can't be the court issue. The decision in my mind is 90 percent just to get a rest. So I don't even think the fan thing is a big part of it, but it probably is involved in his thinking as a secondary reason.

by Belovedluckyboy Tue 28 Apr 2015, 4:57 am

Novak didn't play at Madrid in 2014. The last time he played there was in 2013 where he lost his first match there to Dimi. He gave the reason that he had hurt his wrist so had to skip Madrid in 2014.

by socal1976 Tue 28 Apr 2015, 6:40 am

Yes good catch blb, forgot he skipped last year.

by HM Murdock Tue 28 Apr 2015, 11:14 am

Henman Bill wrote:Looks like he read this thread and listened to you Socal. The other thing is, maybe he still holds a slight grudge after the 2012 blue clay when he said: "To me that's not tennis. Either I come out with football shoes or I invite Chuck Norris to advise me how to play on this court."

Yes, I remember that quote.

I didn't understand then, and I don't understand now, why Novak thinks Chuck Norris is an expert at playing on blue clay.

by temporary21 Tue 28 Apr 2015, 1:29 pm

Chuck Norris has an extra foot in his beard for balancing help remember?

The blue clay was slap bang in the middle or the red clay preparation, it would be good to have just after the hardcourts as a half transition, but not inbetween.

by Jahu Tue 28 Apr 2015, 3:14 pm

Djoko should of played Madrid, he is on the roll and should of beaten Nadal in Madrid and then skip Rome and rest before RG, now he will play Rome and get tired for the RG.

Stupid decision.

by Henman Bill Tue 28 Apr 2015, 4:19 pm

I don't think the blue clay would really have much impact on Novak pulling out this year, but it's just one little thing that might have factored in the decision slightly even though likely not the main reason.

by summerblues Tue 28 Apr 2015, 4:21 pm

I much preferred the old calendar with Hamburg being played after Rome rather than now with Madrid before Rome. Players now have a dillema - Rome's conditions are closer to the FO but it is played a little too close to the FO - where they have to decide which of the two should be their main focus.

Of course, the old calendar was really bad for Hamburg, and I am sure Madrid would not want to swap its calendar position with Rome.

by Henman Bill Tue 28 Apr 2015, 7:32 pm

Not sure I agree with this. Rome has the perfect slot. Everyone wants to be playing that week especially the top players that might go deep in Rome then need the week off before the FO. It's only the week before the FO where the tournaments are smaller so the top players can have a rest and so harder for those tournies to attract talent.

Similar Queens gets all the top players, and then nobody big in the tournies the week after.

Doha (like Rome and Queens 2 weeks before the slam) is a 250 but bags all the top players and then the week after it's minor events.

Doha and Queens are the biggest 250s on the calendar and the fact that they occur in the Rome slot respective to their slam has to be a factor. When you add in the fact that Rome is a masters in itself with great history for me it is one of the biggest Masters on the calendar.

I think they did the right thing with the switcheroo because Madrid's conditions are quite different to the FO, whereas Rome is closer, so made sense to move Rome in.

A week off after Rome is enough to recover for the FO. Even if you get to the final in Rome, you still are not going to play until about 8 days later.

by socal1976 Tue 28 Apr 2015, 9:10 pm

My only concern is that Novak gets knocked out after a couple of matches and goes into the French a little undercooked. But I think getting knocked early is a small risk .

by Jermaine2015 Fri 08 May 2015, 9:25 pm

Whilst Djokovic skipping Madrid is good for him as it's totally different conditions to Rome and Paris, it could come back to haunt him.

Nadal's been in poor form, if Nadal wins Madrid it will boost his confidence. Coupled with if Nadal-Djokovic meet in Rome, Nadal will be on a 9 match win streak.

Had Djokovic played Madrid and beaten Nadal there, the doubts in Nadal's mind would've been even greater.

Whilst I don't believe Bo3 is comparable with Bo5, a defeat in Rome for Djokovic would do him more harm than if Nadal where to lose. Need I remind anyone, Nadal's 6-0 vs Djokovic in Paris.

by socal1976 Mon 11 May 2015, 5:10 am

Jermaine2015 wrote:Whilst Djokovic skipping Madrid is good for him as it's totally different conditions to Rome and Paris, it could come back to haunt him.

Nadal's been in poor form, if Nadal wins Madrid it will boost his confidence. Coupled with if Nadal-Djokovic meet in Rome, Nadal will be on a 9 match win streak.

Had Djokovic played Madrid and beaten Nadal there, the doubts in Nadal's mind would've been even greater.

Whilst I don't believe Bo3 is comparable with Bo5, a defeat in Rome for Djokovic would do him more harm than if Nadal where to lose. Need I remind anyone, Nadal's 6-0 vs Djokovic in Paris.

It seems that his strategy has worked perfectly Nadal has expended a lot of energy in Barcelona and Madrid and his confidence is now probably lower than it was after the Djokovic defeat in MC. Of course we won't know how well it worked until Djokovic either wins or doesn't win MC but I think regardless of whether he wins or not for the long haul of the season this long break before the meat of the grandslam season will help along the way.

by Belovedluckyboy Mon 11 May 2015, 7:03 am

I think the break is good for Novak. It will be interesting to see Murray vs Novak on clay at Rome, they havent met on clay since 2011 Rome I thinK; and what a match that 2011 encounter was, when Murray almost got the better of Novak, something even Rafa couldnt do then.

by Belovedluckyboy Mon 11 May 2015, 7:49 am

Rafa unlike Novak has to keep playing matches until he feels that his game is back where he wants it to be. Furthermore, Rafa needs to build up his stamina and match fitness having stopped for so long. Rafa may not win the FO this year, but if he can play without pressure when his game is back to normal, he can concentrate on winning at the HC events.

Defending the FO and being expected to win everytime when on clay has become a burden to Rafa, I think Rafa after so many losses on clay this year ( and I feel he may not even win a single title this clay season) will no longer be the favorite on clay, and its no longer shocking that he loses to anyone on clay. It may do Rafa some good if after all these losses, he would revamp his game and play more aggressively to counter all these hard hitting, big serving opponents. Sod had set the prototype for beating Rafa even on his beloved clay; Novak improvised on that, and now everyone from Berrer, Fog, Verdasco, Ferrer and now Murray are all hitting Rafa off the court, clay and non clay.

by CaledonianCraig Mon 11 May 2015, 11:01 am

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Rafa unlike Novak has to keep playing matches until he feels that his game is back where he wants it to be. Furthermore, Rafa needs to build up his stamina and match fitness having stopped for so long. Rafa may not win the FO this year, but if he can play without pressure when his game is back to normal, he can concentrate on winning at the HC events.

Defending the FO and being expected to win everytime when on clay has become a burden to Rafa, I think Rafa after so many losses on clay this year ( and I feel he may not even win a single title this clay season) will no longer be the favorite on clay, and its no longer shocking that he loses to anyone on clay. It may do Rafa some good if after all these losses, he would revamp his game and play more aggressively to counter all these hard hitting, big serving opponents. Sod had set the prototype for beating Rafa even on his beloved clay; Novak improvised on that, and now everyone from Berrer, Fog, Verdasco, Ferrer and now Murray are all hitting Rafa off the court, clay and non clay.

Yes there can be no let up in Rafa's schedule. He needs matches and lots of them to work himself back into consistent form and from that build on his confidence. That can only come about from playing and winning matches and restoring the self-belief in turn. I do see similarities between his and Murray's plight last year. Murray's win against Rafa yesterday was his first against one of the old top four since winning Wimbledon since 2013 and was the next step in Murray's recovery back to where he was. I feel that is where Rafa is now. He has beaten the second tier type players such as Berdych and now he must beat the top dogs of the game and self-belief will go a long way to be restored.

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