PGA Tour: Are Winners Predictable?: Notes from the Ballwasher

1).The Tour travels 750 miles West this week, from Hilton Head to New Orleans, a long way to be sure but not far enough to escape the damp weather regime that's been afflicting the South-East. Play has been largely uninterrupted but courses have been soft, an understory at Augusta and Harbour Town.

2).Let's do something different this week and reprise some drivel I wrote a few years ago when, completely out of the blue, Woody Austin won in Memphis. Who'd've thunk it? Every so often unanticipated planets align and a complete outsider wins on Tour. More often than not, though, there are strong hints as to who might contend, the three strongest in my book being:
*Horses for courses, e.g. Furyk last week. Or Holmes in Houston.
*Local (relatively speaking) players - no surprise that Kevin Kisner would play well in the Carolinas. While Kuchar combined both in finishing 5th.
*Form: Spieth at The Masters, Walker in San Antonio (not coincidentally his hometown).
PLUS:
*Top Events: More intangible, but some players, galacticos if you like, perform strongly in the highest quality tournaments. Not thinking of Woods in particular, he transcended every event he played, a compulsive winner; but more the Adam Scotts, Stensons, Justin Roses, Days, and obviously Phil (runner up in his last two Majors, virtually no recent form elsewhere) and Rory.

3).Every so often someone wins without any traditional indicator, probably Harrington at the Honda would be the most recent, but even there you had a rank outsider who tended to fare better when par was a good number on any hole, and not a shoot-out. The only other outlier this year I would say has been James Hahn in Los Angeles, but he did have the local thing going for him, being a California boy.

4).Some courses reward certain players. Furyk, for instance, typically has success where accuracy off the tee is important and a precise short game helps out when the irons go haywire. So no surprise to see Harbour Town, Colonial, two shot-makers' Canadian venues plus a near-miss in Montreal, Waialae, Pebble Beach etc, etc among his successes. Tim Clark and Luke Donald have tended to play well on the same sorts of courses, McDowell too if he'd just tailor his schedule to more rewarding venues instead of his galactico circuit!

5).While Bubba and Dustin, to name but two flourish where fairways are wide and penalties for missing 'em are small. They're both welcome at places like Doral and Augusta National, among others.

6).Kevin Kisner is not the longest off the tee, but is a "Carolina" boy and has a wonderful short game. His only previous Top 25 this season has been a 4th place at The McGladrey, just south of Harbour Town. His only other Top Tens last year were in Montreal, like Clark & Furyk, and Quail Hollow and Greensboro, both quite close to his hometown.

7).When a "Form" guy is on a roll, the question is "when to get off the bandwagon?"; I got off the Spieth bandwagon a week too soon and the Walker bandwagon a week too late!
But how do you see contenders last week faring going forward? You'd have to fancy both Furyk and Kuchar for The Players, plus Poulter who shot himself in the foot last Sunday with an 8 on a Par-5 he would have expected to birdie.
Don't look now but Poults is having a very good year, consistent and apparently taking his job seriously before he turns 40.
And: I mentioned a few weeks ago to double up each way on Brendon Todd (4th at Harbour Town) - a "Southern" lad who might still be worth keeping an eye on through most of the summer.

8).Anyway, food for thought from the same school which never tires of teaching that Tom Watson never won on the PGA Tour in Florida and Lee Trevino never won in California until the tail end of his career!

9).This week is the final week of qualifying for The Players via the owgr Top 50 and the Top 10 in FedEx points. Not sure this year's date for next week's MatchPlay does The Players any favours - no buzz about it whatsoever.

10).None of this offers any clues for the "Zurich Classic of New Orleans". Not the greatest field you'll ever see, one of the weakest of the year so far, comparitively speaking. There's not much sign of obvious "horses for courses", but some good players in decent nick have form here, Keegan Bradley & Justin Rose for two examples.
If Grumps's Fantasy Game was operating this week I'd go for:
A).Bradley, Rose, either Billy Ho (won first event here two years ago) or Dustin Johnson (because he's as good as he wants to be. A bit like Horschel come to think of it).
B).Stricker (course specialist), Watney (won here, decent form in Houston), Justin Thomas (if he's going to win as a rookie, this place should suit him, not exactly a local but went to college in Alabama, close enough).
C).John Peterson (local college, played well at Harbour Town, sure to win soon-ish), Sabbatini (runner-up here, late entry after 3-putting from two feet(!) to miss the Harbour Town cut by one), Jerry Kelly (past winner here, still competitive enough to have a decent tournament).

All of this is highly opinionated of course, you will look at the "Zurich" field and find great reasons why my selections are full of prunes and yours are far more logical. But that's what makes it fun!

Kisner currently showing 80/1 .. got to be worth a couple of quid?

Maybe, played well here last year before blowing up on Sunday - on my bench last week, so day late, dollar short. Too inconsistent to spend a lot of money on, but wouldn't discourage a half crown e.w.! Harris English another outsider-ish possibility, ticks the boxes but tough to warm to him!

It would be interesting to know if there has been an event on the fantasy golf when no one picked the winner. We may make guesses but mostly educated guesses.

Kwini made note of that Ben; the outlier James Hahn at the Northern Trust Open. The runners up Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey were picks.

It's partly a numbers thing too, with over 20 people picking well over half of the field is picked. Back when there wasn't as many people playing the winner wasn't picked with such frequency.

Additionally it has primarily been top players or pre-tourney favs that have won this years tournaments. Hahn, Paddy and maybe Every being the exceptions.

Kwini

You must be doing something right with your predictions as you are currently 3rd in 1GG's fantasy league. You are almost like a sage on here, so just imagine the genius of those above you.


On a similar not to predicting winners, did anyone read about the bbc article about coursiders in tennis. They send info back to a computer system about the score more quickly than the betting sites can, and use this advantage to place advantageous bets. Does anyone know if this is done in golf?

If not would anyone be interested in giving it a go?

McLaren wrote:so just imagine the genius of those above you.

Broke a rib there Mac.

Kwini, I have been playing Draft Kings for the last 5-6 weeks.  If you don't know anything about it, here is the short course.

You have a salary cap of 50,000 and have to pick 6 players which sell for anywhere from 4,500 to 15,000.  The scoring per player is a modified stableford system, plus scoring per placing and bonus points for things like bogey free rounds, three birdies in a row, 

Here is FAQ page

https://www.draftkings.com/help/pga

Here is a sample of draft prices (top 10 and some notables)

Dustin Johnson	13000
Jason Day	12300
Justin Rose	11900
Harris English	11400
Rickie Fowler	10700
Keegan Bradley	10500
Billy Horschel	10400
Steve Stricker	9400
Morgan Hoffmann	9300
Brendan Steele	9200
Notables
Kevin Kisner	8100
Russell Knox	7700
Brian Davis	6700
Richard Sterne	6100
Marc Leishman	6100
Justin Leonard	5100
Woody Austin	5100
Jhonattan Vegas	4900

What I like about it, is that you have to pick some non chalk players. And they do have some free games and 25 cent games to get your feet wet.

I have been having fun with it and so far I am couple bucks ahead.

McLaren wrote:Kwini

You must be doing something right with your predictions as you are currently 3rd in 1GG's fantasy league.  You are almost like a sage on here, so just imagine the genius of those above you.


On a similar not to predicting winners, did anyone read about the bbc article about coursiders in tennis.  They send info back to a computer system about the score more quickly than the betting sites can, and use this advantage to place advantageous bets.  Does anyone know if this is done in golf?

If not would anyone be interested in giving it a go?

Mac, why don't you write an algorithim and try high frequency trading from the fairways? As long as you stay in Hounslow / the UK you're safe from the FBI.

Woods to play the Players and Memorial

Molinari off the disabled list to play the Match Play.

I've found that without the added interest of the fantasy golf I've little interest in the norleans classic. Maybe also that the test match is on tv at the same time could be having an impact. When I flicked over last night hudson something or other was being interviewed. I've literally never had any knowledge of him before.

Ben, I'm sorry I've made golf boring for you

Hi Chaps, Chapesses,

Back from two days in the US equivalent of "the smoke". Brrrr, Grumps, Plunky, Thursday was no day to be at the ol' ballpark.

One thing I really like about Grumpy's game is that it forces you to have a butcher's at the lower-ranked golfers and sometimes that's where there can be some real betting value. The point is that all the indicators above are merely generalities, but so often those elements (and I could have got much bigger into grasses etc) suggest a player will play a stroke or two per round better than he normally would be expected to, whilst the converse is also true.

GPB,
A friend is also doing DraftKings - trying to figure out if I am going to get into that.
Meanwhile, by observing my horses-for-courses technique, I've chosen exactly the wrong horses for the past fortnight, hope to be doing better down on the Bayou!
Still in the top 200 on pgatour.com but not the lofty perch of three wks ago!!

No surprise for Molinari making a miraculous recovery, good for him.


Potential for more bad weather in NOLA today, so kinda surprised they haven't got going sooner. Looks like the cut might go to -5; which would help the Tour if nothing else. Better weather forecast for Sunday.

Forecast slightly better for the rest of Saturday, Round 2 in the books, and Round 3 for the "lucky" 71 can start shortly.

Jason Day has taken the lead; remember, he's the defending Champ next week in San Francisco.

Hey, Let's be having you.

Action due to resume at New Orleans at 6.00 p.m. local time, and that should be sufficient to get nearly halfway through Round 3.
The forecast that offered us a 20% chance of rain today suggests the same for Sunday. Who the Hell knows?

More disappointing was Freddie Jac's first 3-putt since January, 542 holes which is a PGA Tour record. (No 3-putts from me since October, but that's my problem.)

Fairly high on the predictability scale is LW1 in South-East Asia. 29 on the back 9 is pretty unusual but he does seem to get it done in the far east. Hope this isn't putting the mockers on him!

Wow! Didn't even realise he was there. They used to call that "pot-hunting" in racing circles fifty years ago; sure the owgr cynics have another word for it now.
Ironic that it's the same week as one of the two tournaments he's squeaked out on the PGA Tour!

Justin Rose into a share of the lead, Greg Owen into the Top Ten. Good luck to the both of them.

They've called it a day in NOLA, a 7.30 a.m. start on Sunday with the early groups only completing 12 holes. Should complete the full 72 holes tomorrow.

Justin Rose with superior stats and looking to be bang in form. Hope he keeps it up.

Looks like Westy did his best to throw away a five shot lead but scraped through in a playoff. I don't know if the New Orleans was at this time of year when he won it but that can be another factor in who wins - Poulter in late season springs to mind.

Smithers,
The New Orleans event was the week before The Masters when Lee won it - he was in decent nick then, too. 5th in The Players, followed by that win, then 7th in the US Open a couple of months later. Would that we'd see that form from him this year.
Glad he won though! Even Bjorn showed some form.
Trying to find out more about young American Paul Peterson who had another good finish - is he another in the Koepka, Uihlein mould?

The New Orleans forecast for today is good; the golfers will finish Round 3 and play Round 4 in the same threesomes (or twosomes). So would guess that the final threesomes will embark on Round 4 about 6.00 p.m. BST.

The Champions Tour has a lucrative (two-man Team) tournament going on in Missouri - I don't understand it so can't explain it, but the bottom line right now is that Lyle and Woosnam enter Sunday's final round with a two-shot lead. That'll be very big bucks to the winners; did Shropshire Boys see this coming forty years ago??!!

....and with the mighty Shrews getting promotion might be a good weekend for Salop.

Might be very good for Justin Rose too.
A Hampshire (sort of) lad of course, not "A Shropshire Lad", but tied for the lead going into the final 18 holes in New Orleans.

Interesting stat earlier when the thought was that this might be a 54-holer: 3 of Dustin Johnson's 9 wins have been 54-hole tournaments!

Post Script to the Lyle/Woosnam interest.

The geographically challenged Associated Press report today:
"Woosnam and Lyle grew up about 20 miles apart, with Lyle in Scotland and Woosnam in Wales."

You couldn't make it up, could you?!


Also just reporting another bird from Justin Rose, tied for the lead with Jim Herman, brother of Lofty, Woody and Pee Wee.

That should get Rose into a play-off at least.

According to wiki

Lyle was born Shrewsbury England and Woosnam was born Oswestry, England.  Both in Shropshire County and Google Maps say they are 17.8 miles apart.

Yup, Lyle's Dad was a Scottish Pro, Woosie's lived in Welshpool (I think). Played in junior events as they were growing up. But Scotland is hardly 20 miles from Wales, and Lyle never grew up in Scotland.

A little nitpicky, don't you think.  They were born 20 minutes apart.

So they got their facts slightly askew.

Anyone who writes about Scotland and Wales and thinks they can be 20 miles apart is a total moron.
It's one thing to be ignorant, quite another to be published advertising the fact.

kwinigolfer wrote:Anyone who writes about Scotland and Wales and thinks they can be 20 miles apart is a total moron.
It's one thing to be ignorant, quite another to be published advertising the fact.

If I scoured the UK press, I wonder how many errors they would make about US Geography.  


Geeez, its not that big of a deal.  The reporter probably mixed up playing junior tournaments with birthplaces.  There is no need to get your knickers in a knot over TRIVIAL details.

Like Ron Sirak said in his speech a couple of weeks ago when asked about the decline in print journalism. It's not the change in media, it's the change in quality of journalism.
Why defend the indefensible?

And: The only reason I started writing my drivel on here was to try to set the British media straight on some of their US characterizations.

Regardless, good result for Rose and hopefully a portent for a good streak this summer. Geographically he comes, sort of, from Hook. Wonder if any golfer comes from "Cut" or "Fade", or even "Slice"?

GPB wrote:According to wiki

Lyle was born Shrewsbury England and Woosnam was born Oswestry, England.  Both in Shropshire County and Google Maps say they are 17.8 miles apart.

I know that area very well... Lyle came from north of Shrewsbury as his dad I believe was working at Hawkstone Park GC. Woosnam is from Llansantfraid-am-Mechain, west of Shrewsbury and over the border into Wales. That particular border is pretty convoluted so it's not uncommon for sporting or civic events to straddle both Wales and England. The confusion is that Lyle represents Scotland due to it being his father's homeland, and Scotland is about half the length of the country away again from the area we're talking about. The best parallel would be if two golfers from either side of a US state line regularly played each other as juniors, but one had Canadian parents and represented Canada as a pro. The mistake would be to say they grew up playing each other, one in California and one in Canada.

Mickelson WDing from the Match Play.

Mikko, time to book a flight to San Francisco.

Ned,
Agreed!!!!!! And this from someone who learned part of his golfing geography from reading about Harry Weetman!

And, GPB: I see that about Phil. Can't say I'm surprised, but imagine he'll now play The Players and Quail Hollow. Wonder whether Ilonen will bother . . . . . . Wouldn't blame him if he didn't.

Confirmation that Dubuisson, Donaldson, Lahiri, Grace, Wiesberger, Gallacher, Luiten, Jaidde, Lowry and Willett qualify for The Players via the OWGR Top 50. Not sure how many will commit.

Phil is supposed to play Players and Charlotte.

Kwini - Hook, Cut, Fade or Slice! Top quality, and evidence if any needed you are still Fleet of mind at least!
Managed to get to see some of the Hampshire Hog at JR old stomping ground last week - he won it aged 14 or 15, and at least one Shropshire born major winner won it previously? Entry requirement this year +1.7, but still plenty of disasters.

Sounds Liss-ful puligny! Although I prefer the Harrow-ing experience at the confluence of Sheet and Steep!

I read that as "confluence of Sheet and Sheep" and was deeply worried for a moment.

Ah, you're sensing the Welsh blood in me, Bob!

Ah just before Peter's field, on the way to Pompei!

It's a slow burn day here!!

Update from the Champions Tour. The Little and Large Team of Lyle and Woosie came up short in Missouri but their second place swag was $130K apiece.

GPB wrote:Mickelson WDing from the Match Play.

Maybe he doesn't like California taxes -- or being grouped into pods - with Euros...
Ironic that Phil, of all, misses the sole match play event of the year.

pedro wrote:

GPB wrote:Mickelson WDing from the Match Play.

Maybe he doesn't like California taxes -- or being grouped into pods - with Euros...
Ironic that Phil, of all, misses the sole match play event of the year.

Did you forget the Presidents Cup?

pedro wrote:
Maybe he doesn't like California taxes -- or being grouped into pods - with Euros...
Ironic that Phil, of all, misses the sole match play event of the year.

In previous years he withdrew because it clashed with school holidays. I dont know what the reason is this time.

GPB wrote:

pedro wrote:

GPB wrote:Mickelson WDing from the Match Play.

Maybe he doesn't like California taxes -- or being grouped into pods - with Euros...
Ironic that Phil, of all, misses the sole match play event of the year.

Did you forget the Presidents Cup?

No I didn't. But as I find it unlikely he qualifies, I didn't consider it.

GPB wrote:

pedro wrote:

GPB wrote:Mickelson WDing from the Match Play.

Maybe he doesn't like California taxes -- or being grouped into pods - with Euros...
Ironic that Phil, of all, misses the sole match play event of the year.

Did you forget the Presidents Cup?

Of course he forget about the Presidents cup. Who actually cares or remembers about it?

Blood sugar low mac?