PGA Tour: Are Winners Predictable?: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).The Tour travels 750 miles West this week, from Hilton Head to New Orleans, a long way to be sure but not far enough to escape the damp weather regime that's been afflicting the South-East. Play has been largely uninterrupted but courses have been soft, an understory at Augusta and Harbour Town.

2).Let's do something different this week and reprise some drivel I wrote a few years ago when, completely out of the blue, Woody Austin won in Memphis. Who'd've thunk it? Every so often unanticipated planets align and a complete outsider wins on Tour. More often than not, though, there are strong hints as to who might contend, the three strongest in my book being:
*Horses for courses, e.g. Furyk last week. Or Holmes in Houston.
*Local (relatively speaking) players - no surprise that Kevin Kisner would play well in the Carolinas. While Kuchar combined both in finishing 5th.
*Form: Spieth at The Masters, Walker in San Antonio (not coincidentally his hometown).
PLUS:
*Top Events: More intangible, but some players, galacticos if you like, perform strongly in the highest quality tournaments. Not thinking of Woods in particular, he transcended every event he played, a compulsive winner; but more the Adam Scotts, Stensons, Justin Roses, Days, and obviously Phil (runner up in his last two Majors, virtually no recent form elsewhere) and Rory.

3).Every so often someone wins without any traditional indicator, probably Harrington at the Honda would be the most recent, but even there you had a rank outsider who tended to fare better when par was a good number on any hole, and not a shoot-out. The only other outlier this year I would say has been James Hahn in Los Angeles, but he did have the local thing going for him, being a California boy.

4).Some courses reward certain players. Furyk, for instance, typically has success where accuracy off the tee is important and a precise short game helps out when the irons go haywire. So no surprise to see Harbour Town, Colonial, two shot-makers' Canadian venues plus a near-miss in Montreal, Waialae, Pebble Beach etc, etc among his successes. Tim Clark and Luke Donald have tended to play well on the same sorts of courses, McDowell too if he'd just tailor his schedule to more rewarding venues instead of his galactico circuit!

5).While Bubba and Dustin, to name but two flourish where fairways are wide and penalties for missing 'em are small. They're both welcome at places like Doral and Augusta National, among others.

6).Kevin Kisner is not the longest off the tee, but is a "Carolina" boy and has a wonderful short game. His only previous Top 25 this season has been a 4th place at The McGladrey, just south of Harbour Town. His only other Top Tens last year were in Montreal, like Clark & Furyk, and Quail Hollow and Greensboro, both quite close to his hometown.

7).When a "Form" guy is on a roll, the question is "when to get off the bandwagon?"; I got off the Spieth bandwagon a week too soon and the Walker bandwagon a week too late!
But how do you see contenders last week faring going forward? You'd have to fancy both Furyk and Kuchar for The Players, plus Poulter who shot himself in the foot last Sunday with an 8 on a Par-5 he would have expected to birdie.
Don't look now but Poults is having a very good year, consistent and apparently taking his job seriously before he turns 40.
And: I mentioned a few weeks ago to double up each way on Brendon Todd (4th at Harbour Town) - a "Southern" lad who might still be worth keeping an eye on through most of the summer.

8).Anyway, food for thought from the same school which never tires of teaching that Tom Watson never won on the PGA Tour in Florida and Lee Trevino never won in California until the tail end of his career!

9).This week is the final week of qualifying for The Players via the owgr Top 50 and the Top 10 in FedEx points. Not sure this year's date for next week's MatchPlay does The Players any favours - no buzz about it whatsoever.

10).None of this offers any clues for the "Zurich Classic of New Orleans". Not the greatest field you'll ever see, one of the weakest of the year so far, comparitively speaking. There's not much sign of obvious "horses for courses", but some good players in decent nick have form here, Keegan Bradley & Justin Rose for two examples.
If Grumps's Fantasy Game was operating this week I'd go for:
A).Bradley, Rose, either Billy Ho (won first event here two years ago) or Dustin Johnson (because he's as good as he wants to be. A bit like Horschel come to think of it).
B).Stricker (course specialist), Watney (won here, decent form in Houston), Justin Thomas (if he's going to win as a rookie, this place should suit him, not exactly a local but went to college in Alabama, close enough).
C).John Peterson (local college, played well at Harbour Town, sure to win soon-ish), Sabbatini (runner-up here, late entry after 3-putting from two feet(!) to miss the Harbour Town cut by one), Jerry Kelly (past winner here, still competitive enough to have a decent tournament).

All of this is highly opinionated of course, you will look at the "Zurich" field and find great reasons why my selections are full of prunes and yours are far more logical. But that's what makes it fun!

monty

The presidents cup is pretty much a non entity in the world of golf. I doubt GPB is offended by that concept.

The trouble with The Presidents Cup is that everything about it is controlled by the PGA Tour, including venues, rules, format, team selection, etc.
But having seen some of this season's refereeing decisions, it's not that much different from the Premier League.


Reports from South Carolina media suggest that Kiawah Island has been selected as the venue for the 2021 PGA Championship; although, if complaints from spectators and press alike following the 2012 event are to be believed, they've got their work cut out to better organize the logistics of transporting spectators to and from the course.