Rugby Championship 2015

The 2015 Six Nations seems sufficiently long ago to think that it never featured in the same year of a Rugby World Cup. Not so with the Rugby Championship. They seem as close in time to one another as a commute by bus and train combined.

This year the abridged Rugby Championship kicks off a fortnight after the battle for Super Rugby supremacy is decided. The fact that there will be only three matches (two home matches for Australia and South Africa) already gives an element of opening up the fridge and seeing what leftovers remain from previous nights' fare. That's not to say there won't be any tasty morsels but it certainly won't be hearty or filling.

Think of the Super Rugby and Rugby Championship this year as smaller Russian doll trophies housed in an even bigger Rugby World Cup trophy. Each trophy is a separate entity in its own right, and the winner rightly lauded, but the two smaller trophies are dwarfed when put alongside the Rugby World Cup.

The Rugby Championship concludes on August 15 with a non-championship round just over a month before the World Cup begins. The match between New Zealand and Australia will serve as a Bledisloe Cup decider should Australia win or draw their match in Sydney the previous week.

All four coaches will be setting targets in specific matches and experimenting in others. While only Argentina and New Zealand will face off in pool play, every side will be looking to score psychological points in case of any potential match-up later in the tournament.

However, they will be equally wary of playing their hand too soon. Australia in particular, with easily the most challenging pool, will be keen to make amends for their scrum deficiencies against England in their last match, but won’t want to give their rivals too clear an insight into how they’ll approach their games.

Michael Cheika will, for example, want to use Will Skelton as a not-too-subtle warning to Wales and England, but at the same time he won’t want to overplay him and risk either tiring him out or converting his encouraging Super form into doubts about his abilities in a Test jersey. Read the same for the promising prop Scott Sio.

Heyneke Meyer will have been discouraged by the two losses on the Northern tour last year after the enterprising win against New Zealand at Ellis Park. He will be mindful of a looming semi-final clash – if everything goes to plan for both sides – with New Zealand.

He took the game to New Zealand last year and his players caught the All Blacks napping out on the fringes. He knows South Africa won’t find Ellis Park conditions in England even though Twickenham is easily one of the best fields in Europe. A loss at home would be a psychological blow but a loss might well add the required intensity to any follow-up match.

It’s interesting that South Africa are once again playing New Zealand in Johannsesburg. Have they identified that area as their best chance of success, because if anything it suits New Zealand’s game? What if South Africa were to move to Newlands where there’d be a greater likelihood of rain that might well bear more of a resemblance to English conditions?

South Africa don’t need to worry about an away match in New Zealand and will have two weeks to prepare after their first match against Australia in Brisbane. I imagine they will put everything into this match to try and wound New Zealand psychologically with consecutive losses.

New Zealand for once have a tricky draw. Not a bad thing to have and I never understand why they don’t reverse the fixtures every alternate year to help out Argentina in particular, who always have the unenviable task of starting with two energy-sapping games against South Africa.

New Zealand has just the one home game first-up against Argentina, who might feel cagey about revealing their hand too soon against a pool opponent (a bit like the French in pool play in 2011, who came perilously close to stealing the whole show at the end).

Then it’s unsure whether in eight days Steve Hansen will want to have a real crack at South Africa with his best squad or play cat and mouse with a more experimental side, as was the case in the last Tri-Nations. If Australia wins in Brisbane – a distinct possibility with seven from eight wins at Suncorp against the Springboks – does this encourage a playful gamble, or is it more important to not give South Africa any more of that winning feeling going into a tournament?

A loss in South Africa would be tempered by the fact that it involved a more experimental side. Equally, a loss with the best squad would hurt more. Is it better to feel the sting of defeat or cast doubt into your opponent’s mind?

My feeling is that with two games in Sydney and Auckland against the Wallabies, the most experimentation will come in Sydney. New Zealand, after all, has a home streak to protect. Yet perhaps Hansen might want to win the Rugby Championship – if New Zealand are in the hunt – and not have to worry about Auckland. Maybe he’s keen to recreate the do-or-die nature of knockout rugby?

It’s good to see the people of Christchurch rewarded with a Test, and the two Tests the temporary stadium has hosted have been crackers for differing reasons. A drop goal by Daniel Carter broke the deadlock against Ireland in the second Test in 2012, and the following year easily the most complete defensive performance I’ve seen in a while saw the All Blacks shutting out the French completely.

Depending on how the games go, sides will be motivated to get points to differing levels. Furthermore, results from the previous year will have an impact on how teams approach each match. It should be intriguing, for example, to see how Australia perform in Auckland and Mendoza after their losses last year. Similarly, South Africa will have different approaches to their away and home matches against Australia and New Zealand respectively.

Argentina travel to New Zealand and back in a week to play Australia in their only home game. I am more inclined to think they will target that second match. Then they might play a more experimental side away in South Africa to have a good crack at them at home the following week even though championship points won’t be at stake.

No team will want to risk burn out, and a few fringe players and new combinations will need to be tried out. Some teams will have the luxury of doing just that in pool play, but first the squads need to be picked and the strike players need to be managed well. You can’t expect to be firing on all cylinders from August all the way through to October.

There will be plenty of mind games and experimentation. No team will be peaking physically in the Rugby Championship this season and no team has all their best combinations set in stone. Even the winner won’t be able to relax or celebrate for too long. A bigger prize is up for grabs a short while after, and careful management will be required.

What are your predictions for this year's winner and what do you envisage will be the games with the best sides available and which games will see more experimentation?

Week 1
17 July 2015
New Zealand vs Argentina
AMI Stadium, Christchurch
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)

18 July 2015
Australia vs South Africa
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)

Week 2
25 July 2015
South Africa vs New Zealand
Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)

25 July 2015
Argentina vs Australia
Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)

Week 3
8 August 2015
Australia vs New Zealand
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)

8 August 2015
South Africa vs Argentina
Growthpoint Kings Park, Durban
Referee: Romain Poite (France)

Additional week
(not for competition points)
Saturday 15 August: New Zealand v Australia – Eden Park, Auckland
Saturday 15 August: Argentina v South Africa – Venue TBC

(New Zealand will also play Manu Samoa in Apia.)

I think injuries will play a part. Some players will be gone for the year and the depth may require some playing time for replacements. Others recovering from injuries. From memory some of the players out injured at the moment (obviously most should be right by the championship, but does give an idea of the issue) include:
Charles Piatau (knee)
Conrad Smith (Concussion)
Beuden Barrett (knee)
Aaron Cruden (knee)
Steven Luatua (shoulder)
Patrick Tuipolotu
Brodie Retalick

All of a sudden the game against Samoa (8 July) becomes important for Hansen, in terms of future selection/combination options.

Don't forget Kaino as well BC. Apparently, Conrad Smith is just getting the All Black stand-down treatment but maybe that was influenced by the possibility of concussion. The important thing is that it doesn't seem serious.

Who will he select at 10, 6, front row and back three are going to be the intriguing selections for me.

The injuries have been uncanny in this RWC year. I'd like to see how Weber, Milner-Skudder, Sopoaga and Naholo go in the ABs, maybe for the Samoa game but depending on the Super Rugby finalists of course. Who else, there's a few emerging for the future which is heartening.

James Broadhurst would be a fantastic backup to Whitelock and Retallick. His work-rate is exceptional! I don’t think anyone took real notice but in one sequence against the Chiefs last week he made four tackles back to back, that was after taking the man to ground and getting up and going again.

Easy to do in Rugby League, harder to do in Union when you can get sucked into rucks etc.

His ball carrying has also been immense and can offload really well.

I think there's some great talent coming through. I think for the most part, we won't see that talent until after the RWC. There's a few more Hurricanes who have caught the eye this season. The question is can we make it with the squad that Hansen has in mind? Definitely but cutting it fine on a few positions and, after all, it often comes down to the small details.

Hoping Barrett's pace is not affected by his knee injury. We'll need that scorching pace late in the game no doubt.

The player I have been very impressed by again this season is Charlie Ngatai. Tough ask for him to break in the All Black centres this season with Nonu, Smith, SBW and Fekitoa ahead of him and Crotty there or there abouts. Would certainly be worth a place and would do a job in an All Blacks jersey.
Could certainly see him being a first choice next season when Nonu & Smith take leave and SBW plays 7s.

The other area that the All Blacks are maybe looking a little bit thin of cover is hooker. Mealamu hasn't hit top form in a poor Blues team, Dane Coles has been mixed so far as well. Nathan Harris was looking very good last season until he got his ankle injury while scoring against the USA. He is due to be back in the next month so too late for the rugby championship probably. Hika Elliott has looked good though in his absence at the Chiefs and think he will get some game time for the All Blacks.