2015 French Open Draw Discussion Thread

[Henman Bill]

First topic message reminder :

2015 French Open Draw

Date: Friday, May 22

Time: 10.30 London am/ 11:30 a.m. Paris time. (so Americas posters should be able to get the draw when waking up Friday morning).

Where: Roland Garros, Paris, France

Live Stream: Roland Garros YouTube channel

[socal1976]

BB what veneer are you talking about I am and have been open with my views it isn't like I am hiding anything

[Haddie-nuff]

I disagree I think federer is being completely self serving with his comments trying to get under Novak's skin just like his Rome comments that were dismissive of Novak and his chances. Plus it makes his own decimation on clay at the hands of Nadal seem less poor. I think it bothers him that he was never favored over nadal on clay and that Novak can beat Nadal and be favored over him at RG. Something that he could never manage

Oh dear socal and I am the one that is always criticised for this kind of cynicism ... your frustration I understand but give Rafa a break eh .????.let Novak's racquet do the talking. If he is that good he should be beating Rafa at whatever stage of the tournament he is.

[laverfan]

LF, can I derail the thread with a kiss for you?

Getting too NSA/GCHQ this conspiracy theory

Thanks, Jahu.

[socal1976]

Haddie it has nothing to do with rafa I didn't criticize Rafa I criticized Fed we know he likes to play these mind games with the media and with Novak. He isn't doing or saying these things to be nice to rafa

[Haddie-nuff]

Haddie it has nothing to do with rafa I didn't criticize Rafa I criticized Fed we know he likes to play these mind games with the media and with Novak. He isn't doing or saying these things to be nice to rafa

That is your view so be it , but I hope Rafa does not see it that way.

[laverfan]

I disagree I think federer is being completely self serving with his comments trying to get under Novak's skin just like his Rome comments that were dismissive of Novak and his chances. Plus it makes his own decimation on clay at the hands of Nadal seem less poor. I think it bothers him that he was never favored over nadal on clay and that Novak can beat Nadal and be favored over him at RG. Something that he could never manage

He has been decimated by Gulbis, Horna, Kuerten, Nadal, Tsonga, Corretja, Djokovic, Rafter, Arazi. His W/L @RG is 61-15. Djokovic is 42-10.

[CaledonianCraig]

What I would say socal is that you'd have half expected Novak to play Rafa at some stage at RG anyway if he intends to win the tournament. Sure most people may have thought it would have been in the final but instead it will be the QF. Should Novak win that match it is theoretically all downhill from there. That is probably the best way to look at it.

[socal1976]

Well CC I still think he is favorite but he has such a tough draw that if does get to the final after a couple of wars he could be spent. I don't like the draw process I think that it is fraught with potential for abuse

[Haddie-nuff]

LF

Last edited by laverfan on Fri May 22, 2015 11:20 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Edited by LF - H-n's quoting secretary.)

?????

[CaledonianCraig]

Novak is one of the fittest players on the tour so fitness isnt an issue for me and should he reach the final he will likely play a 33-year-old Federer or perhaps Nishikori who I don't think would outlast Novak in the final in any case.

[Silver]

Is RG the only slam with a closed-door draw? I remember watching the AO draws live last year, but don't know whether that's standard for the slams or not.

[Belovedluckyboy]

HB, don't forget it's slow clay here, so ad to Rafa. I don't expect Novak to play like he did at MC for five sets. We've seen it before, they played five sets and Rafa emerged the winner. Rafa needs time to get up his gears but don't forget that Novak is the one who needs more time to do so, so meeting in the QF may be more detrimental to Novak than to Rafa.

The pressure is always there for Novak regardless of when he's meeting Rafa, and in the final is when Novak gives it his all. The court at RG is big and windy according to Rafa, so the abilities to deal with the elements is another consideration. Rafa has the experience and confidence on the RG court more than anyone else, I'll give the edge to Rafa vs Novak should they meet.

[socal1976]

HB, don't forget it's slow clay here, so ad to Rafa.  I don't expect Novak to play like he did at MC for five sets. We've seen it before, they played five sets and Rafa emerged the winner.  Rafa needs time to get up his gears but don't  forget that Novak is the one who needs more time to do so, so meeting in the QF may be more detrimental to Novak than to Rafa.    

The pressure is always there for Novak regardless of when he's meeting Rafa, and in the final is when Novak gives it his all.  The court at RG is big and windy according to Rafa, so the abilities to deal with the elements is another consideration.  Rafa has the experience and confidence on the RG court more than anyone else, I'll give the edge to Rafa vs Novak should they meet.

I would have agreed with you a couple of weeks ago. But I don't think I would call Rafa the favorite currently at RG over Novak in best of five sets. I mean he hasn't exactly blown Novak away the last few years when they played over 5 sets the margins were small even when we saw Rafa in much but form than he currently is. I don't see how you think Novak needs more time to quote up his gears. His regular baseline level has been much higher than Nadal's. So if anything he doesn't need to up his level much more while Rafa has to find his form and find it fast.

[Belovedluckyboy]

If youve watched Rafa's day matches at Madrid and Rome, you would notice that he's not playing badly. I dont understand why people choose to ignore the 10 matches that he played well to win, but concentrate on the three matches that he played poorly - 2 of which were night matches.

If you ask me, I would say chances of Rafa playing the way he played that 10 matches >>> than he played that 3 matches he lost badly. 1) because RG court = slow clay court; 2) no night matches; 3) he's very experienced playing on this court.

Even in that match where he lost to Novak (at MC), he wasnt playing badly, considering he was using the new racket and its only his 24th or 25th match after coming back from long break and his stamina was clearly not up to par yet.

You forget that as good as Novak's form was in the past, when hes at the FO, he also needed time to get used to the court - in 2011, 2012 and even 2014 when he won Rome before coming to RG.

[socal1976]

I don't buy your reasoning at all. It is internally contradictory. I am not saying if Novak plays Nadal at RG that he will for sure. I mean Nadal could win, Novak could win but how you are claiming that Nadal is a favorite over Djokovic who has won 21 odd matches in a row and the last two clay court events is a little beyond me. Novak has played Rafa on this court, and Novak was close to Rafa. You claim Rafa is experienced so on the court this isn't Novak's first rodeo at center court either. A much better Nadal had to fight back and was on the ropes against Djokovic. Now Nadal is way off the form that he has ever had on clay court.

And I don't buy this nonsense about his stamina doing him in at MC they played for like an hour and half. He has been healthy for as you claim 25 or so matches now all of sudden the iron horse Nadal has stamina issues in a 6-3, 6-3 match? And if he had stamina issues so badly that he can't last two sets now all of sudden a month later he is going to go toe to toe with the world number one over 5 sets and have fitness be his edge?

I am sure Nadal can beat Novak at RG, I don't doubt that, but I doubt you will find many bookmakers who would favor Nadal in that match up. This simply isn't the same Nadal we have seen in previous years on clay, and even the more dominant version of Nadal didn't exactly have it easy in those wins over Novak. At best I would say I would have Djokovic as a 2-1 or 60-40 favorite if they meet at RG.

This whole idea of Novak having to up his level or his gears as you argue is nonsensical. The guy has won the last 7 first tier events on the ATP tour on an indoor court, outdoor hardcourt, and clay. If anything Nadal is the one who has to up his level and fast.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Mr, Rafa had to build his stamina from stretch, he was still doing that during the clay season but he's getting there. Do you know he was complaining about tiredness after his matches? He said he played well in that MC match but didn't have the legs to up his level when needed in the second set.

You talked about Novak's form, but, wasn't he even better in 2011 when he had his 37 match winning streak entering the FO? Novak being close to Rafa at the FO, no doubt about that, but, my bet is that Rafa would play like he did in that Isner or Berdych match, than that Stan match, at the FO. Also, I highly doubt anyone could play like Stan over five sets to blow Rafa off the court when Rafa is relative healthy. Rafa vs Novak will be at the QF stage and when they get there, both should be playing well, so this talk of good or bad form prior to the FO is irrelevant. If Rafa is playing poorly, he won't even get to meet Novak!

[bogbrush]

HB, you are so right about the BBC. They view tennis entirely through the prism of Andy.

We had years of articles like this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/jonathanoverend/2012/08/can_britains_murray_win_us_ope.html

And then Andy does it! He wins that first slam! What angle would they now take for the next slam?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/21002898

Well what would you expect? It is a BRITISH Broadcasting Company so will look out for British players first. Go to the Spanish equivalent and it will be all about Rafa or the Serbian equivalent and it will be interested in Novak's draw.

It's true, there are huge numbers of people out there who want to read about people with whom they share some geographical proximity. Crazy isn't it?

Yip and a huge amount of glory-hunters out there as well. It takes all sorts I suppose.

Absolutely. Incredible how people form allegiances based on anything other than self-interest, isn't it?

Personally I favour Federer for the benefit I get from being entertained by his tennis. I can't imagine supporting a player because of his birthplace or because I like his personal life.

[socal1976]

Mr,  Rafa had to build his stamina from stretch, he was still doing that during the clay season but he's getting there.   Do you know he was complaining about tiredness after his matches?  He said he played well in that MC match but didn't have the legs to up his level when needed in the second set.  

You talked about Novak's form, but, wasn't he even better in 2011 when he had his 37 match winning streak entering the FO?  Novak being close to Rafa at the FO, no doubt about that, but, my bet is that Rafa would play like he did in that Isner or Berdych match, than that Stan match, at the FO.  Also, I highly doubt anyone could play like Stan over five sets to blow Rafa off the court when Rafa is relative healthy.  Rafa vs Novak will be at the QF stage and when they get there, both should be playing well, so this talk of good or bad form prior to the FO is irrelevant.   If Rafa is playing poorly, he won't even get to meet Novak!

Yes, that is the same argument you make over and over and over again. Nadal won in other years so he is going to win now. Sure I guess Nadal deserves a great deal of credit for his 9 slams on this surface. I don't deny that. But if I was a Nadal fan I would be concerned that my guy has lost I believe 5 out of the last 6 matchups.

I mean you are really saying that Nadal after 2 sets was tired at MC after 25 matches back on tour and that all of sudden a month later he is going to be ready for a 5 setter with one of the fittest guys on tour, a player who makes him run like no else? I don't buy it. Again, of course Nadal can win, but this nonsense about Novak who is 45-2 since last November having to up his level to face a Nadal who has one tournament win in the last 11 months is a bit of stretch for me. I am sure regardless of records or form it will be a tough match. But I do find your blindness to the idea that Novak isn't just any match up for Nadal to be a bit amusing and dismissive. The idea that somehow Wawrinka or Isner or Berdych is any type of gauge of his match up vs. Djokovic is rather bizarre. Not only can Novak play as well as Wawrinka on clay I think he can play a whole lot better especially over five sets. Either way. I don't doubt Nadal's ability to win. But like I said the idea that he is the favorite or quote Novak has to raise his level to beat him is a little silly. How much do you want him to raise his level from 45 out of the last 47 matches won? I mean you talk like Novak got beat by Nadal in straight sets at the FO ten years in row. Nadal has never faced as close a challenge as Djokovic on the clay and this year he is down compared to where he has been.

[socal1976]

HB, you are so right about the BBC. They view tennis entirely through the prism of Andy.

We had years of articles like this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/jonathanoverend/2012/08/can_britains_murray_win_us_ope.html

And then Andy does it! He wins that first slam! What angle would they now take for the next slam?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/21002898

Well what would you expect? It is a BRITISH Broadcasting Company so will look out for British players first. Go to the Spanish equivalent and it will be all about Rafa or the Serbian equivalent and it will be interested in Novak's draw.

It's true, there are huge numbers of people out there who want to read about people with whom they share some geographical proximity. Crazy isn't it?

Yip and a huge amount of glory-hunters out there as well. It takes all sorts I suppose.

Absolutely. Incredible how people form allegiances based on anything other than self-interest, isn't it?

Personally I favour Federer for the benefit I get from being entertained by his tennis. I can't imagine supporting a player because of his birthplace or because I like his personal life.

Look I am not the nationalist or patriotic type. I would never kill or die for a religion or nationality or race or anything quite that silly. But I do have a cultural affinity thing working. Just like I like Persian food and Persian women, if I hear an interesting story or see a compelling athlete, or movie maker, or writer that shares a common experience as I do it piques my curiosity. It doesn't mean that I favor them because of racial or cultural stereotype. Same thing works with my American side I like cheese burgers and baby back ribs same way as I can root more easily for an American national team or an American tennis player. That being said I am Iranian by blood lived 32 years of my 38 years in America and I like Novak Djokovic as my favorite all time player. And I loathe both Roddick and the Williams sisters. I am not a nationalist or patriot, but there is a commonality that if something more exists makes for an easier connection.

[CaledonianCraig]

HB, you are so right about the BBC. They view tennis entirely through the prism of Andy.

We had years of articles like this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/jonathanoverend/2012/08/can_britains_murray_win_us_ope.html

And then Andy does it! He wins that first slam! What angle would they now take for the next slam?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/21002898

Well what would you expect? It is a BRITISH Broadcasting Company so will look out for British players first. Go to the Spanish equivalent and it will be all about Rafa or the Serbian equivalent and it will be interested in Novak's draw.

It's true, there are huge numbers of people out there who want to read about people with whom they share some geographical proximity. Crazy isn't it?

Yip and a huge amount of glory-hunters out there as well. It takes all sorts I suppose.

Absolutely. Incredible how people form allegiances based on anything other than self-interest, isn't it?

Personally I favour Federer for the benefit I get from being entertained by his tennis. I can't imagine supporting a player because of his birthplace or because I like his personal life.

And sorry but you are barking way up the wrong tree and making false assumptions. Take a look elsewhere on these boards - say the snooker sections and I am not drooling over Steven Maguire (Scottish player) or on another forum hold low expectations of certain Scottish footballers. I have followed Murray's progress from its outset from grassroot levels and stuck with him through the bad times and the good. My affinity towards him is he shares many traits I admire such as his tenacious fighting qualities, never-say-die attitude to win slams after so many set-backs and being written off by so many, his wide array of shot-making ability, his proving so many small-minded people wrong, the ability to turn matches around from impossible positions, watching him adapt and improve his game to get where he is and his great talent of course amongst other things. Were you there shouting on Federer as a teenager when he won naff all - I seriously doubt it. Anyway back to tennis talk please.

[Jahu]

BB, when you are from a small country, say Balkans, Middle East, Latin America etc where wars with guns or with nationalistic leaders and verbal crap is fought constantly, and one does grow up within those surroundings, one does get to be nationalilistic, and sport is the only thing that those countries export, so its government sponsored, helped, pushed, say remember when President of Serbia whent to Wimbledon to watch Djoko, even serbs in Serbia were laughing at their President for spending money to go watch Djoko, while he himself covered behind the Son of our Nation will play the Final, so its worth it, firing even more nationalistic cause for the sport.

Then you have groups of countries who are good with eachother, but have problems with 2-3 countries closeby, and support eachother against their enemies, etc, say a Bosnian serb will support Djoko, while a Bosnian Croat/Muslim will support Cilic and Tomic, against Djoko, so nationalism and politics takes over the quality of a player who you cheer for.

Might sound weird to a western person, as nationalism is not something they grow up with, but its how things are with small poor countries, where they live and breathe History, natonalisim, injustice to them by big powers and why sport is their only card to be seen and known around the world, and their country to be mentioned in a positive way or news for something.

[Danny_1982]

I personally think Andy will struggle to get past Ferrer. In fact, I don't think he will get past Ferrer. I think Rafa will improve as he goes on and it will be a pretty competitive quarter final between him and Novak, but Novak will win. I predict a Novak v Nishikori final. Novak obviously being hot favourite and winning it.

[temporary21]

People support players for all sorts of reasons. Stop trying to look down on people because you think their reasons are less "noble" than yours and start treating each other with respect.   That said. Novak has Rafa in the quarters?  Excellent for him, if he faced Rafa in the final he might well get beaten. He takes him on now at the weakest Rafa could be.   Put simply, hard draw or not this Novak Djokovic can paste all 3 of the rest of the top four on the wall, he's still heavy favourite

[CaledonianCraig]

Of course temporary21.

The way I see things at present and imagining winning RG is akin to climbing a mountain. At present Novak is settled in at base camp whilst Rafa is still getting his equipment together for the task. In short he is the one with work to do on his form, confidence, consistency and fitness whereas everything is rosy at the moment cor Novak.

[HM Murdock]

I'm very uncomfortable about "supporting" a player.

Someone on this forum (possibly it was BB saying what his Dad said) described supporting a sportsperson as degenerate as there's a lot of truth in that.

(BB - was it your Dad and have I remembered it correctly?)

It's ridiculous to invest emotionally in someone who hasn't the faintest idea that you even exist.

Of course, I repeatedly fall into the trap of doing so! But I'm aware of how daft I am.

[Guest]

I don't see following a player as degenerate as such. I admire the play of a sportsman, but that's it. I am not going to go out my way to find out what their favourite food or drink or film or song is. I just think follow is a rather loose term that doesn't strike me as being completely invested.

[Jahu]

Yes agree, I support players for the sport they play, don't care much to digest their personal life or who they sleep with or what they eat.

[Belovedluckyboy]

SoCal, I don't see why you get so agitated. Tell me, which year from 2011 onwards, that Novak didn't need to up his level during the FO, to reach at least the QF? Read properly, when did I say Novak has to up his level to beat Rafa? I say, Novak has to up his level to reach the QF, not unreasonable, consider its a best of five, and based on his past records, he did struggle during the early stages at the FO. And I said, if both get there, then they're playing well, so this in form or not issue becomes irrelevant.

Do read Rafa's presser after his match vs Novak at the MC, he did say he felt a bit tired during the match, I certainly didn't make that up.

[temporary21]

I'm very uncomfortable about "supporting" a player.

Someone on this forum (possibly it was BB saying what his Dad said) described supporting a sportsperson as degenerate as there's a lot of truth in that.

(BB - was it your Dad and have I remembered it correctly?)

It's ridiculous to invest emotionally in someone who hasn't the faintest idea that you even exist.

Of course, I repeatedly fall into the trap of doing so! But I'm aware of how daft I am.

Yes, we are all here because were as ridiculous as one another. It doesnt matter why you support a player, its usually a load of reasons, nationalism, is usually just the initial hook.

There is no "wrong" reason to support a player you like him because you do

[CaledonianCraig]

What I'd say Belovedluckyboy is that as you say as the tournament goes on every player needs to go up through the gears - whoever they are. Novak has shown time and time again this year he can go through the whole quota of gears. It is Rafa that the question marks remain there for. He has not been able to get into that top gear when needed even when going deep into tournaments.

[bogbrush]

And sorry but you are barking way up the wrong tree and making false assumptions. Take a look elsewhere on these boards - say the snooker sections and I am not drooling over Steven Maguire (Scottish player) or on another forum hold low expectations of certain Scottish footballers. I have followed Murray's progress from its outset from grassroot levels and stuck with him through the bad times and the good. My affinity towards him is he shares many traits I admire such as his tenacious fighting qualities, never-say-die attitude to win slams after so many set-backs and being written off by so many, his wide array of shot-making ability, his proving so many small-minded people wrong, the ability to turn matches around from impossible positions, watching him adapt and improve his game to get where he is and his great talent of course amongst other things. Were you there shouting on Federer as a teenager when he won naff all - I seriously doubt it. Anyway back to tennis talk please.

What are you on about?

1. I responded to a post about the skewed coverage of the BBC
2. Despite your wishes, it wasn't about you.
3. It was you who posted on the subject before me.

Methink, not for the first time, he doth protest too much.......

[bogbrush]

I'm very uncomfortable about "supporting" a player.

Someone on this forum (possibly it was BB saying what his Dad said) described supporting a sportsperson as degenerate as there's a lot of truth in that.

(BB - was it your Dad and have I remembered it correctly?)

It's ridiculous to invest emotionally in someone who hasn't the faintest idea that you even exist.

Of course, I repeatedly fall into the trap of doing so! But I'm aware of how daft I am.

Yes it was - he's not changed (at 85 I doubt he will now!).

[temporary21]

Back to tennis, take this elsewhere eh?

[bogbrush]

Back to the draw, I'm trying to think of the last time that a quarter final put the two favourites for a Slam together.

Anyone got any ideas?

[temporary21]

Federer Agassi us open 2004? Closest thing I can think recently, with a little digging the 1993 Wimbledon quarter final had Sampras, a big favourite versus defending champ Agassi

[Haddie-nuff]

I have to agree with Craig their is a certain assumption that there just has to be another reason why someone supports a player becausen of something other than the way they play tennis. It is true to say that at the time I first followed Nadal it was when I lived in Spain. but it had naff all to do with my geographical situation. I supported Borg, I knew nothing of Sweden.I support DelPo why would I be interested particularly in Argentina.?
I now live in Canada.. and frankly would not give a thank you for Raonic.
Nobody on these boards owes anyone an explanation for their following and interest in  any player it does not break any rules. Don't like the content of a post then don't read it,

[bogbrush]

On the other aspect of this draw, given the strong probability that Rafa will not past that quarter, I think he'll be down to 2930 points.

When was he that low (I guess it's be based on the old half points method)? I'm guessing 10 years?

[Belovedluckyboy]

Ok CC, point accepted. As I said, if Rafa played badly, he won't be able to meet Novak.

[Haddie-nuff]

•Rafael Nadal Is 80 Percent Of What He Used To Be - by Carl Bialik (fivethirtyeight.com)


Nadal has, indeed, been far from terrible on clay this year. He is 17-5, meaning he has won an excellent 77 percent of his matches on the surface. Tomas Berdych, the fourth-ranked player in the world, has won 78 percent of his matches on all surfaces this year. Win more than three-quarters of the time in tennis, and you’re one of the very best in the world.


And should he drop out of the top ten just think of the damage he can cause in forthcoming tournaments

[CaledonianCraig]

I was reading an article on Sky Sports yesterday and it demonstrated that Murray does not exude self-confidence like the other top players. I think it basically quoted Andy as saying getting to the semis would be good for him. Sorry but his form suggests he should be glowing and saying I am in the clay court form of my life and am in the running for the title.

[temporary21]

That's a bit of a British thing CC. Never talk yourself up  the mongrels that are the press will just bring you down

[temporary21]

Every loss has opportunity. If Nadal fell out the top ten then the pressures off a bit.  He can rebuild second part of the year fresher.  Class is permanent remember

[bogbrush]

A bad ranking is a real handicap to regaining points: too many quarters against the very best.

[temporary21]

True that again though comes with opportunity. Easier to get wins over the best too which brings confidence. That's how people move up the rankings in the first place of course

[temporary21]

I'm very uncomfortable about "supporting" a player.

Someone on this forum (possibly it was BB saying what his Dad said) described supporting a sportsperson as degenerate as there's a lot of truth in that.

(BB - was it your Dad and have I remembered it correctly?)

It's ridiculous to invest emotionally in someone who hasn't the faintest idea that you even exist.

Of course, I repeatedly fall into the trap of doing so! But I'm aware of how daft I am.

Yes it was - he's not changed (at 85 I doubt he will now!).

Who's your fathers 85! That must put you around your fifties!

[Guest]

Interestingly Agassi and Federer won their FO's at the 11th attempt. Can Novak do the same I wonder.

[bogbrush]

Yeah, too true. It made me smile when Murdoch was saying on another thread about what TV character we were all like, he said I reminded him of House. I'm almost as old and nearly as much fun to work for.

[Haddie-nuff]

True that again though comes with opportunity. Easier to get wins over the best too which brings confidence. That's how people move up the rankings in the first place of course

Yes quite right.. how do people move up from lower rankings. And for a player who even when not playing well is winning 77% of his matches.  
Those at the top will not want to meet him on his back way up

[Henman Bill]

I would tend to agree with Socal that Djokovic has got very close in this court before, notably 2013 when he only lost the match because of his smash and his loss of confidence in it, having been leading 4-3 with a break, before then preceeding to touch the net with a smash, and then miss a horrific smash a couple of games later when Nadal put up a hotdog, and then finally miss a smash by miles in the first point of the game where he was finally broken to love to lose.

It was a 50/50 match, and that was when Nadal was playing much better than now. Nadal has a superb year winning clay titles in brazil, mexico, barcelona, madrid and Rome, with 2 clay defeats one to Djokovic at Monte Carlo and one to Zeballos in his first clay tournaments back from injury. And this was a Rafa that went on to win Canada, Cincinatti, and the US Open which he clearly won't do this year. He was playing far better - he won 2 out of 2 slams that he was fit for - and still Djokovic only lost at the FO because he can't hit a smash.

In 2013 Rafa beat Warwinka 6-2 6-4 and Fognini 6-1 6-3, now he's losing to such players.

I do think if Rafa can make it a tight 5-setter and put up a few lobs and wait for a few misses Djokovic no longer has the mental edge that he has in 2011 and I think Rafa could grind it out. However, I actually predict Djoko in 4. I think he is going to win this year on superior ball striking without the need to go 9-7 or whatever in the 5th.

[summerblues]

The draw is very hard for Nole and Rafa, but it is not all that impossible to see it opening up. While we are all imagining SF vs Andy and final vs Federer/Nishikori, it is quite possible that instead they will face Ferrer and Berdych in SF/F, which would make their actual opposition pretty much a par for the course for a slam title run.

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