2015 French Open Draw Discussion Thread

[Henman Bill]

First topic message reminder :

2015 French Open Draw

Date: Friday, May 22

Time: 10.30 London am/ 11:30 a.m. Paris time. (so Americas posters should be able to get the draw when waking up Friday morning).

Where: Roland Garros, Paris, France

Live Stream: Roland Garros YouTube channel

[summerblues]

Roger is playing on Sunday. I expect that means the bottom half will play QF on Tuesday and top half on Wed? It looks like not only did he get a good draw, but also good scheduling.

[Silver]

I was reading an article on Sky Sports yesterday and it demonstrated that Murray does not exude self-confidence like the other top players. I think it basically quoted Andy as saying getting to the semis would be good for him. Sorry but his form suggests he should be glowing and saying I am in the clay court form of my life and am in the running for the title.

I certainly agree with the sentiment, but in this one instance such words might ring a little hollow. Andy is indeed in the clay court form of his life...having just won the first two tournaments of his career on the surface. Brilliant for him, but it pales in comparison to Djokovic and the others. I just don't see it happening at RG with the pedigree of players around him.

That being said, this is sport! Perhaps he can pull off the miracle.

Also, young Thiem just won in Nice, beating Mayer. Congrats

[CaledonianCraig]

I was reading an article on Sky Sports yesterday and it demonstrated that Murray does not exude self-confidence like the other top players. I think it basically quoted Andy as saying getting to the semis would be good for him. Sorry but his form suggests he should be glowing and saying I am in the clay court form of my life and am in the running for the title.

I certainly agree with the sentiment, but in this one instance such words might ring a little hollow. Andy is indeed in the clay court form of his life...having just won the first two tournaments of his career on the surface. Brilliant for him, but it pales in comparison to Djokovic and the others. I just don't see it happening at RG with the pedigree of players around him.

That being said, this is sport! Perhaps he can pull off the miracle.

In my opinion though going in with that mindset (a semi spot would be good) is defeatist talk. If I were on his coaching staff I'd tell him the truth - I would say you have made the semis at RG already a couple of times but now and by your own admission, you are in the clay court form of your life so aim higher. Barring Novak you are the form player on clay this season so quit talking yourself down and try talking yourself up a la Muhammed Ali or other sporting greats.

[socal1976]

SoCal, I don't see why you get so agitated.  Tell me, which year from 2011 onwards, that Novak didn't need to up his level during the FO, to reach at least the QF?  Read properly, when did I say Novak has to up his level to beat Rafa? I say, Novak has to up his level to reach the QF, not unreasonable, consider its a best of five, and based on his past records, he did struggle during the early stages at the FO.   And I said, if both get there, then they're playing well, so this in form or not issue becomes irrelevant.

Do read Rafa's presser after his match vs Novak at the MC, he did say he felt a bit tired during the match, I certainly didn't make that up.

I am not agitated but I think since he has been to nearly 30 grandslam quarterfinals in a row and has on 45 of the last 47 matches he probably doesn't need to up his level from here to reach the quarters. I can see one or the other struggling and still reaching the quarters. I think if Novak plays just like he is playing now and doesn't build up the French open as anything bigger than this tournament he will win it. I don't even think he has to up his level. He is to just keep doing what he is doing, he plays his A- or B+ tennis without a lot of lulls and dips like we have seen before in his matches then I think he wins. I mean his baseline over the last year has been pretty high 2 slams wins and boatload of masters. He just needs to play exactly like he has the last seven months.

[socal1976]

If with this gooey cupcake draw Federer can't reach the finals of RG he never will. I mean the draw committee did everything short of just cancelling the tournament and voting him the champion because they think he is so wonderful.

[socal1976]

I would tend to agree with Socal that Djokovic has got very close in this court before, notably 2013 when he only lost the match because of his smash and his loss of confidence in it, having been leading 4-3 with a break, before then preceeding to touch the net with a smash, and then miss a horrific smash a couple of games later when Nadal put up a hotdog, and then finally miss a smash by miles in the first point of the game where he was finally broken to love to lose.

It was a 50/50 match, and that was when Nadal was playing much better than now. Nadal has a superb year winning clay titles in brazil, mexico, barcelona, madrid and Rome, with 2 clay defeats one to Djokovic at Monte Carlo and one to Zeballos in his first clay tournaments back from injury. And this was a Rafa that went on to win Canada, Cincinatti, and the US Open which he clearly won't do this year. He was playing far better - he won 2 out of 2 slams that he was fit for - and still Djokovic only lost at the FO because he can't hit a smash.

In 2013 Rafa beat Warwinka 6-2 6-4 and Fognini 6-1 6-3, now he's losing to such players.

I do think if Rafa can make it a tight 5-setter and put up a few lobs and wait for a few misses Djokovic no longer has the mental edge that he has in 2011 and I think Rafa could grind it out. However, I actually predict Djoko in 4. I think he is going to win this year on superior ball striking without the need to go 9-7 or whatever in the 5th.

I think your points are fair and it is what I want to get a cross. I mean this idea BLB is pushing that Nadal if he gets to the quarters he will be playing well and therefore his atrocious form of the last eleven months doesn't matter is a bit of a stretch. I mean even a B level Djoko or a B level Nadal should make the quarters of this event. So just by making the quarters it doesn't mean either will be hitting the high notes. And as you pointed out and I tried to explain Rafa has to show that he can produce the level that he attained in 2013 and 2014 and before, it has been almost a year and he hasn't played anywhere near that level. Now conversely Novak doesn't need to up his gears from the way he has been performing. In fact I think his most successful strategy would be to simply not make a big deal or put any pressure and just play this tournament like he would play at Rome or Indian Wells. He just needs to reproduce his baseline level. Where Nadal needs to raise it from where he has been for the last eleven months, which is something he has not been able to do.

[Jahu]

Djoko would get a stomach ulcer and immediately will get back to full-gluten diet if he beats Rafa, Andy and loses to Fed in the final.

[Haddie-nuff]

As I pointed out in the article I posted earlier that whilst Rafa has been way off form he has won 77% of his matches which tells you something at least and to quote you socal  re Novak..

[b]He just needs to play exactly like he has the last seven months.

Rafa just needs to regain the confidence and belief he lost during that period and we have a match on our hands
Everyone is talking like Rafa is out of the race.. and to quote the last lines of The Gladiator... "Not Yet, Not Yet"
.

[socal1976]

As I pointed out in the article I posted earlier that whilst Rafa has been way off form he has won 77% of his matches which tells you something at least and to quote you socal  re Novak..

[b]He just needs to play exactly like he has the last seven months.

Rafa just needs to regain the confidence and belief  he lost during that period and we have a match on our hands
Everyone is talking like Rafa is out of the race.. and to quote the last lines of The Gladiator... "Not Yet, Not Yet"
.

Actually Haddie I don't think I have said that Nadal is done or not a major threat. He is certainly one of the two favorites. But I think to win he has to up his level from where he has been the last few months and by some margin. On the opposite end I think Novak has to maintain his level consistently and avoid going down in form and concentration. I don't think it is a particularly controversial or dismissing Nadal in the least. I wouldn't be surprised if he won the whole thing.

[CaledonianCraig]

As I pointed out in the article I posted earlier that whilst Rafa has been way off form he has won 77% of his matches which tells you something at least and to quote you socal  re Novak..

[b]He just needs to play exactly like he has the last seven months.

Rafa just needs to regain the confidence and belief  he lost during that period and we have a match on our hands
Everyone is talking like Rafa is out of the race.. and to quote the last lines of The Gladiator... "Not Yet, Not Yet"
.

Actually Haddie I don't think I have said that Nadal is done or not a major threat. He is certainly one of the two favorites. But I think to win he has to up his level from where he has been the last few months and by some margin. On the opposite end I think Novak has to maintain his level consistently and avoid going down in form and concentration. I don't think it is a particularly controversial or dismissing Nadal in the least. I wouldn't be surprised if he won the whole thing.

I think the real threat to Novak losing to Rafa will be him playing the man and the occasion. I mean form-wise you'd back Novak to win but will he just be affecting by the notion that this is Rafa at RG if you see what I mean.

[Haddie-nuff]

Im not implying socal that I believe Rafa to win this whole thing not at all, if only if only;  I think at the moment pressure is being put on both of them, and frankly, whilst it has been stated that Andy is underplaying his chances, I think he has actually got it dead right. His camp are probably telling him to keep his head down below the parapet he could well slip under the radar and steal the spoils.
Reading an interview with Rafa he was asked where he thought he was with his game at the present time.. and I believe him when he says he frankly does not know. He feels good and there is no reason why he should not perform well.
But I think we can all agree that this FO is like no other in recent years and to pre-empty anything at this stage is foolhardy. GS's are notoriously hard to predict at the best of times and I just cant help thinking we are going to get some big upsets on the way. That might or might not involve Rafa but we will see. I keep an open mind

[socal1976]

Im not implying socal that I believe Rafa to win this whole thing not at all, if only if only;  I think at the moment pressure is being put on both of them, and frankly, whilst it has been stated that Andy is underplaying his chances, I think he has actually got it dead right. His camp are probably telling him to keep his head down below the parapet he could well slip under the radar and steal the spoils.
Reading an interview with Rafa he was asked where he thought he was with his game at the present time.. and I believe him when he says he frankly does not know. He feels good and there is no reason why he should not perform well.
But I think we can all agree that this FO is like no other in recent years and to pre-empty anything at this stage is foolhardy. GS's are notoriously hard to predict at the best of times and I just cant help thinking we are going to get some big upsets on the way. That might or might not involve Rafa but we will see. I keep an open mind

Good post Haddie, I fully agree with your sentiments. Both guys are under pressure to win the whole thing that is a very smart post. And Nadal right now does not know which Nadal will show up if and when he plays Djokovic. Will he be revitalized and the old Nadal. And the same can be said for Novak we don't know how he will react to facing Nadal at RG. Of course we are all speculating and trying to analyze based on form or passed results or matchups what will happen. It is wide open this and like you said no one can accurately predict it one way or the other.

[bogbrush]

If with this gooey cupcake draw Federer can't reach the finals of RG he never will. I mean the draw committee did everything short of just cancelling the tournament and voting him the champion because they think he is so wonderful.

is this yet another record for Roger? "Oldest player ever to remain the centre of attention to fans of all players".

It's almost like, deep down, they just can't go without their daily fix.

[socal1976]

If with this gooey cupcake draw Federer can't reach the finals of RG he never will. I mean the draw committee did everything short of just cancelling the tournament and voting him the champion because they think he is so wonderful.

is this yet another record for Roger? "Oldest player ever to remain the centre of attention to fans of all players".

It's almost like, deep down, they just can't go without their daily fix.

I have written several lengthy posts on Nadal and Djokovic and one two and half line post on Federer. If that makes Federer the center of attention in your calculation well I think you better recheck your numbers. But while you raise the subject what is your opinion on his comments claiming that Djokovic is more hurt by playing Nadal in the quarters and that it will bother Novak more, and also by throwing cold water on any suggestion on Novak being the favorite. I think he said something like "Novak hasn't won 50 matches" on the clay courts this year. It sounds to be me like Fed is trying to play mind games and being a bit dismissive of Djokovic, which is how usually acts unfortunately.

[bogbrush]

I understand, Federer has dominated the sport to an unprecedented level (bar Laver, I guess) so it's inevitable he'll be the big draw until he retires, even though he's well past his best tennis.

As for his interview, he's very loyal to Nadal, though perhaps he feels Novak is more prone to mental wear & tear than Rafa and thinks the pressure of having Nadal so early (and there being two more tough matches to follow) might wear on him more.

Perhaps he's right, he often says things that grate on people at one point, only to become conventional wisdom later.

[Haddie-nuff]

For my part I really do believe that Roger is being loyal to Rafa. Though can see you might think otherwise socal. Roger and Rafa have been friends and rivals for many years and they each owe to each other, in part anyway, the success they have had . Roger is in the last chapter of his and Im genuinely in the belief he would like to see Rafa  continue for sometime. He sees as the rest of us do Rafa needs to find his confidence again.I would sincerely hope that he would not use Rafa just in order to wind Novak up.
He would destroy his credibility to do so surely

[summerblues]

If with this gooey cupcake draw Federer can't reach the finals of RG he never will.

I think he never will.

[Silver]

Have to say that I agree. The draw is comparatively easy, but he has the hardest R4 opponent - Monfils. I think Federer's ride ends there.

(And let's be fair...if he can't beat Gael, he doesn't deserve to be anywhere near the final.)

[socal1976]

I understand, Federer has dominated the sport to an unprecedented level (bar Laver, I guess) so it's inevitable he'll be the big draw until he retires, even though he's well past his best tennis.

As for his interview, he's very loyal to Nadal, though perhaps he feels Novak is more prone to mental wear & tear than Rafa and thinks the pressure of having Nadal so early (and there being two more tough matches to follow) might wear on him more.

Perhaps he's right, he often says things that grate on people at one point, only to become conventional wisdom later.

Yeah I don't agree, I mean if he just said something like oh Nadal is the favorite because he has won this title 9 times and how he is the greatest on this surface ever etc. I would agree with your thinking. But what is it about this dig, paraphrasing "it isn't like Novak has won 50 matches on clay this year" going into I believe the Rome final. He takes it from being complimentary towards Nadal to trying to take the shine off Novak. Which to me is the main reason he makes these comments. He could of made a comment where he says Nadal is the favorite because he owns this tournament, but as soon as veers left to somehow try to take a shot at Novak from there with a bit of ridiculous exaggeration then I think his true motivation shows. Novak will probably end up winning more masters on clay than anyone not named Borg or Nadal and has played in 2 finals and numerous semis at RG. For Roger to dismiss his record on clay tells me what his motivation in these comments really are, a desire to take a swipe on play some mind games with Novak.

[socal1976]

For my part I really do believe that Roger is being loyal to Rafa. Though can see you might think otherwise socal. Roger and Rafa have been friends and rivals for many years and they each owe to each other, in part anyway, the success they have had . Roger is in the last chapter of his and Im genuinely in the belief he would like to see Rafa  continue for sometime. He sees as the rest of us do Rafa needs to find his confidence again.I would sincerely hope that he would not use Rafa just in order to wind Novak up.
He would destroy his credibility to do so surely

He wouldn't destroy his credibility at all, he has done this type of stuff with Novak and the media for years and has never faced any backlash for it. The one time he actually did receive some backlash was after the USO 2011 when he denounced Novak's lucky shot and actually managed to turn a portion of the small USO crowd that was highly partisan in his favor to start to boo him. It isn't the first or second or third time he has done this type of stuff with Novak in the press and at matches etc, if it was the first offense I would say hey he was just being honest. But since he has been ridiculing and playing mind games with Novak for years in the press I kind of see through this.

It is ok by me actually. I like a little pssiss and vinegar in a contest. I actually like prickly Roger more than what I view as gracious corporate pitch man Roger. Because it is at least real in my view. I actually take it as a big compliment from the GOAT. He cares enough about Novak and his dislike for him to let the veil drop. Good that means in someway the younger Djokovic has him feeling threatened.

[Haddie-nuff]

So what you are effectively saying is that he cares not a jot about Rafa in all of this only that he can take a swipe at Novak...either Im being incredibly naïve here or you are being an over reactionary cynic.
Truly socal I think you are reading a lot more into this.  whilst I have never believed Roger to be the  paragon of virtue he portrays   neither have I thought of him in the light you are suggesting either.

[socal1976]

Cmon Haddie, if what I am saying is not true ask yourself this, why the whole swipe at Novak's clay court record while complimenting Nadal? Why doesn't he say Nadal has won this tournament 9 times damn it, give him some respect. Why does he add the frankly stupid exaggeration that it isn't as if "Novak has won like 50 matches this year on clay". Roger he won the only two tournaments he entered and they were Master's level events. I actually think that it bothers Roger that Novak can be favored over Nadal on clay because that was the one glaring weakness in his repertoire. I am sure Roger wanted to give a big up to Nadal, he has always been very friendly towards Nadal. But at the same time he also wanted to take a swipe at Novak and his clay court credentials. Look I am a trained lawyer and you are woman, you understand sideways compliments and understanding the meaning behind the text as well as I do. Tell me how you analyze his slighting of Novak's record on clay? It isn't a stretch, it isn't me being over the top cynical, it is the plain meaning of what he was saying. If you analyze the plain meaning of what he is saying is that Novak doesn't have that great a record on clay. That is his point isn't it, what else is it if I am wrong? By the way Roger you barely won one clay slam while Nadal beat you like a redheaded step child on clay, so maybe in this one instance you could refrain from crapping on Novak's clay court credentials. This is what he is a very well disguised Diva, a good person overall but with a large nasty side that no one brings out of him like Djokovic. And I honestly think he doesn't want Novak to be known as a better clay court player than him. If Novak wins the French while beating Nadal everyone and their mother even Fed fans would obviously see he is better on clay than Roger. I mean he has way more masters, he has beat Nadal the clay GOAT many more times and fought him much closer. Roger is addicted to himself and his own spotless CV. He would be offended by people thinking that Djokovic is a better clay court player than he is, especially since he doesn't like Novak or his family.

[Haddie-nuff]

Oh dear socal ..I am not sure how to reply to that ..I can see how freaked out you are ..but jeeze I don't like to think that Rafa is being used as a pawn in such a stupid game.. I can only tell you this.. Go to the APT  website and see a pic of Roger with Stephan and don't let anyone tell you that he doesn't look old. Maybe this is his swansong !!!
I would dare to suggest that you are more upset than Novak.

[Haddie-nuff]

Ha ha ha wouldn't you know the website, which is Roger's biggest fan club, must have thought so too because they have removed it

[socal1976]

Haddie it is the plain English meaning of what he said to denigrate Novak's clay court credentials. I agree with you I don't think Novak cares at all about Roger he is used to being disrespected by Roger left and right. And frankly I love it. I love that aspect of their rivalry. He dislikes Novak and his family so much that he lets the true Federer out. I challenge anyone to look at that specific comment and draw any other conclusion other than Federer wants to dismiss and denigrate Novak's clay court resume. It is the plain English of what the man is saying. That being said good, I am glad that Novak is the only guy to bother you enough to get you to drop your fake Mr. Perfect corporate pitch man face and actually expose your nasty streak to the world. It is clear indication Novak is doing something right.

[Haddie-nuff]

I think that Novak will let his racquet do the talking socal so it matters not what Fed thinks. I  on the other hand hope Rafa's racquet has enough to say for the both of them    

[bogbrush]

This is the damaging effect of a perspective deficit.

[Henman Bill]

I understand, Federer has dominated the sport to an unprecedented level (bar Laver, I guess) ...

Ken Rosewall and Pancho Gonzalez dominated the sport as least as much or more than the two players above. If the look at the stats on the GOAT thread I posted, or just read each player's wikipedia career statistics article, it's fairly clear that KR and PG had they had an open era would likely have had more slams, and more years and weeks at no 1 than Laver or Federer. Rosewall and Gonzalez also did not have the opportunity to do a calendar year grand slam, so this is not a pointn in Laver's fan. Again a careful look at their records suggests that both Rosewall and Gonzalez might well have been capable of a CYGs. A careful analysis of the head to heads of the three older players also arguably suggests that a peak Gonzalez would have beaten the other two at their peak.

I seem to be plouging a lone furrow here of defending the pre-open era, so people can always add an "open era" qualifier to your comments to stop me doing it!

I do wonder if people are being dogmatic when they dismiss the open era using comments like "not a global sport back then" etc, I wonder if we are influenced by the fact that the footage is grainy, or non-existent, and people we have seen in our own eyes are more in our consciousness than those whose records are just statistical. Let's see what history judges...

[Haddie-nuff]

I don't think you are ploughing a lone furrow HB but I think one of chief reasons is that there is not a great deal of footage at all. The Open Era did not have the television coverage that today's tennis has. Even for those of us who remember the great players you mention apart from Wimbledon we never got chance to see them in action. The lay tennis enthusiast had little if anything to compare it with. Lets be fair tv coverage even in the Borg,McEnroe era was not as good as it is today.
And as you rightly point out that seeing is believing.. statistics and record books do not give the true picture. Rosewall, bless him, not sure of a calendar slam for him as he could never win Wimbledon. But it is true to say he was a dominant force then as was Pancho of course.

[Henman Bill]

Quick copy and paste from my comment on the GOAT thread:

Unfortunately, Ken Rosewall never won Wimbledon, the world's most prestigious tournament, something which may ultimately count against him in the GOAT race. However he was not able to play it from the ages of 22-33 inclusive. You could probably make the same claim on failing to win Wimbledon against most players if those years were excluded from their records. Ken did have a mighty good try, at the age of 19 and 21 he lost 2 fairly tight amateur finals. In 1970, against John Newcombe at the age of 35, the match went to a fifth set. And then against Connors he was easily dismissed in straights. Surely, had he played a whole career at Wimbledon he would have almost certainly have won the event multiple times.

[Haddie-nuff]

I remember willing him to win in that match against JN. In some respect he reminds me so much of David Ferrer.. insofar as he was the smallest of all the men's tennis players at the time.. and one of the strongest.. "muscles"
But he achieved a great deal.. it was a disappointment for him not to gain the crown that so eluded him in the end. And although I was a great fan of Connors I did not want him to win.

[Henman Bill]

Sounds like you are older than me, I was born in 1980, I have seen about a minute or two highlights of that match and all I can remember is the players walking onto court.

I started watching tennis in about 1991, Wimbledon only at first. Most of what I know from before then is based on analysis of statistics, other opinions and occasional footage seen on TV, DVD or you tube.

Anyway, this point of discussion has become neither on topic nor topical - so maybe wind it up and get back to FO discussion tomorrow.

[Haddie-nuff]

I learned all this at my grandmother's knee

[laverfan]

Connors also missed the CYGS due to WTT in 1974, as did Rosewall. Neither should detract from how good these players are/were.

IMVHO, PG is the 'GOAT', if such a mythical beast does exist. Being elite athletes, they would thrive in any era based analysis, and compete well.

I like Laver, and like Rosewall, Pancho and many others, they missed out on records, if Tennis had not fallen into the ProAm divide chasm.

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