Quarter Final Prediction Game

First topic message reminder :

These quarters look hard to call, so I suggest a prediction game might be good fun.

Can anyone show their knowledge of matchups and intimate understanding of the game and predict the winner in all 4 quarters, or more realistically at least three out of four.  Post the names of the players you expect to win.

As a bonus extra, throw in a random extra prediction or two if you feel like. If necessary, I can use these as a tiebreaker.

Djokovic v Nadal
Murray v Ferrer
Nishikori v Tsonga
Wawrinka v Federer

slash, of course, good one 2009!

Weather matters little for both, as Djokovic looks like he's from another planet still and Nadal not really tested yet. Would be very surprised if Nadal or any one else remaining can stop the #1.

Yes MP and Slash. Not to state the obvious, but RF has obviously won a lot with Nadal in the draw!

But now you've made me research...in 2009 when RF won RG and RN went out in the 4th Round...RF had an epic 5 set match against Tommy Haas in the 4th Round where he was in fact two sets down. So a struggle you could say.

Someone better than me can find out if the RF match was played after RN was knocked out but my memory tells me it was.

In the Wimbledon instance in 2012 where RN was knocked out in the second round, RF in the third round had another 5 set match against J Benneteau, where he was again two sets down. I think it's fair to say that was a struggle.

So in those two instances, he had a bit of a struggle. Of course those were over 3 years ago and time has moved on, so of course there are many other factors.

I'm not saying it's a pattern. Of course there are lots of instances where both have gone out - no idea what the proximity to their exits are. I just remember those two examples for some reason, perhaps because as Nadal went out, RF felt a greater expectation he could win and that affected him in the immediate aftermath of Nadal's exit.

That was my line of thinking here. Although of course 3 years on, there are many other players who can beat both RF and RN so perhaps the expectation will be less.

my wild predictions:
Tsonga 4, Wawrinka 4, Murray 3, Djokovic 5

getting gradually warmer day by day here, expect 30degC on thursday-friday with possible storms.

Johnyjeep wrote:Someone better than me can find out if the RF match was played after RN was knocked out but my memory tells me it was.

The QF was fairly straight forward but the SF against Del Potro was a huge battle. Federer was 2-1 down but took sets 3 and 4.

My memory of that match though is that Del Potro played brilliantly rather than Federer being off his game.

Great match.

J-J. The Haas-Fed match was played AFTER Rafa went out. The pressure was on Fed. He managed to lose the first set on a tiebreak without losing ANY points on serve in the opening six serving games. Haas then took the second set and Fed was serving two sets down, 3-4, 30-40, and came up with an inside out forehand to save the break point.
He then went on to win in five before before being taken the distance by del Potro as remarked upon above.
With Rafa out it was Fed's one chance to win the French and he was under great pressure but pulled it off.

HM Murdoch wrote:

Johnyjeep wrote:Someone better than me can find out if the RF match was played after RN was knocked out but my memory tells me it was.

The QF was fairly straight forward but the SF against Del Potro was a huge battle. Federer was 2-1 down but took sets 3 and 4.

My memory of that match though is that Del Potro played brilliantly rather than Federer being off his game.

Great match.

Hi HMM, I was referring to the Haas 5 setter in the 4th round? If that took place after Rafa's 4th round defeat.

Yes, agree re the Del Potro match. Great match.

HM Murdoch wrote:

Johnyjeep wrote:Someone better than me can find out if the RF match was played after RN was knocked out but my memory tells me it was.

The QF was fairly straight forward but the SF against Del Potro was a huge battle. Federer was 2-1 down but took sets 3 and 4.

My memory of that match though is that Del Potro played brilliantly rather than Federer being off his game.

Great match.

I STILL can't work out how Federer won that match. Del Potro was awesome, able to hit through the clay court almost like it was Dubai. It took every ounce of guile from Federer (I think, because like I say I actually can't work out how he got past him).

Ahh thank you SFP.

I thought so. As I say, that was all a while ago. So I guess the pressure is different now. But with them both back in the QF (which doesn't happen as often as it did), I bet RF would reeeaallly like ND to take out RN (again to state the obvious), for a glimmer of hope at a potential 2nd RG title. And that's all it would be with either ND or RF still in the competition. But surely he'd prefer to play ND than RN!

That's why I figured the schedule might influence the results for the QF (to bring it back on topic). Just explaining my thoughts.

sirfredperry wrote:J-J. The Haas-Fed match was played AFTER Rafa went out. The pressure was on Fed. He managed to lose the first set on a tiebreak without losing ANY points on serve in the opening six serving games. Haas then took the second set and Fed was serving two sets down, 3-4, 30-40, and came up with an inside out forehand to save the break point.
  He then went on to win in five before before being taken the distance by del Potro as remarked upon above.
   With Rafa out it was Fed's one chance to win the French and he was under great pressure but pulled it off.
 

Yep, a remarkable match. I just knew he was going to lose the 1st set tb after - as you correctly say - winning every service game to love.

The inside out forehand at 3-4, 30-40 still gives me a shaky stomach. Oh, the tiny margins that sometimes separate success from failure!!

sirfredperry wrote:J-J. The Haas-Fed match was played AFTER Rafa went out. The pressure was on Fed. He managed to lose the first set on a tiebreak without losing ANY points on serve in the opening six serving games.

I'd completely forgotten that detail! Incredible really. Not as high quality as the later JMDP match but just as tense.

It's probably a toss up between RG09 and W12 as Federer's toughest slam win.

OK, the first match has started, so time to draw a line under the predictions.

Well, we have 24 predictions and all matches have a strong favourite actually, according to the combined wisdom of 606 version 2.

Djokovic 18- Nadal 6
Murray 16 - Ferrer 8
Nishikori 19- Tsonga 5
Federer 16- Wawrinka 8

Henman Bill wrote:Well, we have 24 predictions and all matches have a strong favourite actually, according to the combined wisdom of 606 version 2.

Djokovic 18- Nadal 6
Murray 16 - Ferrer 8
Nishikori 19- Tsonga 5
Warwinka 16- Federer 8

The most surprising results of that is the amount backing Wawrinka to beat Federer and the amount backing Murray to beat Ferrer.

606 wisdom similar to what the bookies think.

Nadal is rated (by a small margin) as the least likely to progress through a French Open quarter final according to the bookies, and second least according to us. What a curious state of affairs, if I had told you that a year ago, you would have thought either I was mad or he would be injured.

Of course, it's also a curiosity that the least likely to win their quarter final (according to the bookies) is still by far the second favourite for the tournament!

Hi CC, my apologies, it is actually 16-8 for Federer, I had it the wrong way around.

Checking scores for 1st time today - too busy to watch....

Looking at Tsonga at this point, I've taken a plate and fork out - and sprinkling some sugar on my humble pie - looks like I will be having a LARGE portion of that by early evening! LOL!

Bit longer to go on the Fed v Stan one, but perhaps I better get a bigger plate out?

Sorry to be missing these today but c'est la vie.....

Henman Bill wrote:Hi CC, my apologies, it is actually 16-8 for Federer, I had it the wrong way around.

No problem. That makes more sense though at present.......

The 8 people who correctly predicted a Warwinka victory are Kingraf, Temp 21, Autograph, Socal, Silver, Banbro, Whocares and Haddie-Nuff.

With a special mention for Kingraf who predicted straights sets. Competition early leader.

I believe im 2 for 2, just about.

Damn it! There goes my shot at perfection. I have a soft spot for Jo, but cared so much about this stupid prediction game, I ended up rooting against him. I feel dirty now.

temporary21 wrote:I believe im 2 for 2, just about.

More importantly, is anyone still on course for getting all 4 wrong?

Turns out Rog and Kei were a popular combo, so plenty currently on nil point.

5 people selected Tsonga to win: HM Murdoch (who also got the set score ), Kingraf, Johny Jeep, Temp 21, Who Cares.

3 people selected Tsonga AND Warwinka to win: Kingraf, Temp 21, whocares.

Well done!!

Kingraf's prediction for tomorrow has Ferrer in 4 sets and Djokovic in 4 sets.
Temp 21 has Murray and Djokovic to win, but no set predictions.
Whocares has Murray in 3 sets and Djokovic in 5.

Temp 21, can you make set predictions for tomorrow to avoid a potential tie, and at least one different from whocares?

Djokovic in 4 and murray in 4

Wawrinka in 3, Tsonga in 5.

If it's all the same to you, I'll let you know my predictions for the other QFs tomorrow

Thank you, temporary 21.

Silver wrote:Nishikori in 5. Tsonga will play well but probably gas towards the end. Kei looking good so far, but untested.

So close. But them's the breaks. At least I got Stan right.

summerblues wrote:Nole in 4
Murray in 4
Nishi in 3
Fed in 3

Today's matches very nearly went the exact opposite direction I predicted - instead of straight-set blowouts one way we could have easily had straight set wins the other way. Shows how much I know.

Makes me think - what if Rafa and David now win tomorrow

Yeah, I have both Rafa and David winning the QFs. Its sad that so few people think Rafa will win against Novak.

Kei vs Tsonga, the result was a surprise for me. Kei was flat in the first two sets, surprising, its as if hes not ready for Tsonga. As for Stan vs Fed, I had Stan winning that one, because Stan was impressive this FO whilst Fed wasnt.

Novak isnt really tested so far but I'm sure he'll raise his level once he sees Rafa across the net. Rafa says hes ready for the fight so it should be a close contest.

Murray vs Ferrer is hard to call, both play well so far,,looks like it may go five sets.

Right so if andy wins in 3, does who cares win? Or is it a tie since we would both be sets in error?

Henman Bill wrote:3 people selected Tsonga AND Warwinka to win: Kingraf, Temp 21, whocares.

Well done!!

Kingraf's prediction for tomorrow has Ferrer in 4 sets and Djokovic in 4 sets.
Temp 21 has Murray and Djokovic to win, but no set predictions.
Whocares has Murray in 3 sets and Djokovic in 5.

Temp 21, can you make set predictions for tomorrow to avoid a potential tie, and at least one different from whocares?

Kingraf, well done 3 out of 4.
Temp 21, whocares the only 2 to get 4 out of 4.

whocares wrote: my wild predictions:
Tsonga 4, Wawrinka 4, Murray 3, Djokovic 5

getting gradually warmer day by day here, expect 30degC on thursday-friday with possible storms.

whocares managed to get the right winner every time but for the tiebreaker, no correct set scores. Which means temp 21 is overall first place due to getting Murray in 4 sets correct.

HM Murdoch wrote:Djokovic in 4
Murray in 4
Tsonga in 5
Federer in 4

3 out of 4 with 2 correct set scores. Just let down by Federer.

Final leaderboard where first number refers to matches predictingn the winner and second number matches with set score correct. The player in brackets is the player wrongly predicted to win.

1st: Temp 21: 4+1
2nd: whocares 4+0
3rd: HM Murdoch 3+2 (Federer)
4th=: Kingraf 3+1 (Ferrer)
4th=: Autograph 3+1 (Nishikori)
4th=: Silver 3+1 (Nishikori)
7th: Banbro 3 (and did not make set scores, Nishikori)
8th=: Socal 3+0 (Nishikori)

As far as I can make it, the rest of us only got 2 out of 4 (or less). However, at least the board as a whole redeemed ourselves after yesterday by picking the right winners today.

Woo hoo. Thank god for ferrer!

Thanks for running this HB, good fun

Maybe we should resurrect the old picking game for Wimbledon?