Rugby Champions Cup 2015-16 - Tiers

First topic message reminder :

Early days I know to be thinking about the RCC for 2015-16 with the Top 14 still not passed through the semi final stage, but as things stand this seems how the four tiers will work out:

Tier 1 – Glasgow, Saracens, Winner Top14 final, one of Munster/Bath/Loser Top 14 final, one of Munster/Bath/Loser Top 14 final

Tier 2 – one of Munster/Bath/Loser Top 14 final, Ospreys, Northampton, better Top 14 losing SF, one of Ulster/Leicester/worse Top 14 losing SF

Tier 3 - one of Ulster/Leicester/worse Top 14 losing SF, one of Ulster/Leicester/worse Top 14 losing SF, Leinster, Exeter, Racing Metro

Tier 4 – Scarlets, Wasps, Oyonnax, Treviso, Bordeaux

For Tiers 1 and 2, anybody know how the two from Munster, Bath and the losing Top 14 finalist who will go into Tier 1 and the one from that group who will go into Tier 2 will be picked - do they pick them out of a hat or what?.  Likewise for Tier 2 and 3, do they pick one from Ulster, Leicester and the worse Top 14 semi-finalist  to go into Tier 2 and the two others go into Tier 3.

From a Leinster point of view we're paying for our sh1te season and could potentially face the Top 14 winner - presume it'll be Toulon of Clermont, Bath and Scarlets - not a nice prospect.  Alternatively we could face Saracens, Northampton and Treviso - not easy but certainly more palatable. Quite happy to be in same tier as Exeter - wouldn't fancy playing them.  

Lots of permutations for all you fans of the other 19 teams to contemplate

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Edit: Draw has now been made for both competitions and the pools look like this:

2015/16 Champions Cup pools

Pool 1: Saracens, Ulster Rugby, Toulouse, Oyonnax
Pool 2: ASM Clermont Auvergne, Ospreys, Exeter Chiefs, Bordeaux-Bègles
Pool 3: Glasgow Warriors, Northampton Saints, Racing 92, Scarlets
Pool 4: Stade Français Rugby, Munster Rugby, Leicester Tigers, Benetton Treviso
Pool 5: Bath Rugby, RC Toulon, Leinster Rugby, Wasps

2015/16 Challenge Cup pools

Pool 1: Connacht Rugby, Brive, Newcastle Falcons, Eniset-STM
Pool 2: Sale Sharks, Newport Gwent Dragons, Castres Olympique, Pau
Pool 3: Montpellier, Harlequins, Cardiff Blues, Cammi Rugby Calvisano
Pool 4: La Rochelle, Gloucester Rugby, Zebre Rugby, Worcester Warriors
Pool 5: Edinburgh Rugby, London Irish, Grenoble, Agen

if it was Saints Sarries or them 2 and a load of non league teams which one has the more predictable winner? Neither is your answer as all that matter are Saints and Sarries.

Think probability is being mixed up with predictability

No 7&1/2 wrote:if it was Saints Sarries or them 2 and a load of non league teams which one has the more predictable winner? Neither is your answer as all that matter are Saints and Sarries.

Not so. What I'm saying is that your mini league competition (whatever that may be) is less predictable (than a two-team playoff) because there is the possibility of those additional teams affecting the outcome of the league (chaos theory). If those teams are removed the competition becomes more predictable.

Consider the teams missing from the ERC Cup this year - Edinburgh being the chief who made the knockout stages a couple of times, but others too who took points from other teams and so affected the outcome of their pools and therefore the outcome of the competition itself - i.e. less predictable

Fewer teams means statistically the competition is more predictable.

broadlandboy wrote:Think probability is being mixed up with predictability

Agree broadlandboy. This has already been mentioned a couple of pages ago.

The Great Aukster wrote:Predictability is the number of outcomes (fewer)
Probability is the likelihood of each outcome

Ergo the new competition is more predictable.

broadlandboy wrote:Think probability is being mixed up with predictability

Actually I think people are wilfully mixing up statistical probability and predictability with sport.