French Open 2015 Day 13 - Let's get ready to mumble....

First topic message reminder :

....to ourselves in Murray-like fashion.

If Novak does win it, as he should. Being forced to play three days in a row will make this much harder, Stand no pushover in any circumstance

temporary21 wrote:If Novak does win it, as he should. Being forced to play three days in a row will make this much harder, Stand no pushover in any circumstance

It's a disadvantage but not too critical as they will perhaps only havehalf an hours play tomorrow or perhaps an hour and a half if it goes the distance but had it finished tonight then the winner would still have had a knock-up tomorrow in any case.

bogbrush wrote:

Aut0Gr4ph wrote:Has anyone else noticed that Novak's hairdo makes his head look like a microphone? Just saying.....

No, I've never heard anyone say that........

That's the problem with the Internet age. Near impossible to have an original idea. Really thought I was onto something there. Going to call him Boom-Boom from now on, but doubt it will catch on.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

temporary21 wrote:If Novak does win it, as he should. Being forced to play three days in a row will make this much harder, Stand no pushover in any circumstance

It's a disadvantage but not too critical as they will perhaps only havehalf an hours play tomorrow or perhaps an hour and a half if it goes the distance but had it finished tonight then the winner would still have had a knock-up tomorrow in any case.

True, its the three days of stress of the match day thats the problem, it hit Federer very hard earlier in the tourny

Either case, this match has made my championship, this is exactly the sort of slugger fest thats up my alley

I check the scores and play is suspended.

If only they'd known a storm was likely.

Incompetent idiots on scheduling. Two best of 5 matches? Bad weather likely? Play them one after the other on Chatrier.

They've just disadvantaged whichever one gets through.

And I think today was the day Novak blew it. To not even face a break point and then lose the first one is so sloppy.

Andy has had two BPs the entire match and taken them both!

I'm fuming.

HM Murdoch wrote:

And I think today was the day Novak blew it. To not even face a break point and then lose the first one is so sloppy.

Andy has had two BPs the entire match and taken them both!

I'm fuming.

That is generally how it goes for Andy in these match-ups in reverse really.

As for the scheduling, if Murray takes the 4th, the 5th set doesn't have a tie break.

Who knows how long it could go?

Worst slam by a mile.

Andy can be pretty proud of this. Novak was toying with him basically, and he responded with a magic game up there with the best, and has as a result spooked the pants off of Novak

Don't know how happy Wawrinka will be, really. At most one and a half sets to play tomorrow, with both men refreshed. Would probably have preferred a slobberknocker today, which drained them. You feel better on Wednesday if you ran three and a half kilometres on Monday, and one kilometre on Tuesday, then if you ran five kilometres on Monday.

Just checked the stats.

Year to date, Novak is saving 64% of BPs.

Arguably the biggest match of the year to date: 0%.

So tomorrow then.

Has anyone else noticed that Novak's hairdo makes his head look like a microphone? Just saying.....

I would have said more like a bogbrush

Murray had dragged him into a fight, got him doubting himself. He hasn't done that against Novak for a long time! Unfortunately, I think he needed to carry on tonight to have any chance. And I really think he had a chance.

Overnight Novak Djokovic will remember that he's Novak Djokovic and win the 4th. But chuffed with Andy. He is incontrovertibly back!

Haddie-nuff wrote:Has anyone else noticed that Novak's hairdo makes his head look like a microphone? Just saying.....

I would have said more like a bogbrush

If so, a very well used one. Not much length to get under the rim these days.

We already have one with more "bristles" ...

HM Murdoch wrote:Just checked the stats.

Year to date, Novak is saving 64% of BPs.

Arguably the biggest match of the year to date: 0%.

But he's barely had any break points against him ? Had none for the first 2 sets.

Andy looked way inferior the first two sets. Didn't look comfortable, his groundstokes lacked venom, struggled with some high bounces. The conditions were more traditional clay court conditions, and we got the traditional clay court Andy back for 2 sets. That's why it's so impressive that he dragged Novak into a street fight. It was the only way really.

Tomorrow the match is reset and I have very little belief that Andy will force a 5th, but I'm really impressed with where he's at mentally to come back into it the way he has.

Danny_1982 wrote:Tomorrow the match is reset and I have very little belief that Andy will force a 5th

No reason to believe he won't.

Only three chances to break serve before a tie breaker.

If Novak loses the tie breaker, I think that's it. The pressure will do for him. Even serving the set out (if he needs to) will be excruciating.

Andy of course is in the same position but he's not carrying the same desperation to win this particular tournament. I think he'll swing more freely.

I think itll be three games and out. Novaks not caught cold on service early,whilst Andy is

If he's calm, I would back Novak.

Andy was well under his skin tonight though and, on balance, I think the delay may work in Novak's favour. Gives him a chance to reset.

But I don't feel confident about him being calm, especially if it goes to a 5th.

Plus Andy now knows how to get under his skin and will do it again!

I have followed Andy's career from its embryonic stage and he is so damned frustrating at times. A fair few times I have despaired as he has tamely gone down in straight sets whilst other times he can dig out wins from a lost situation. A lot of the times tame losses are because he cannot find that consistent top gear but times in matches sometimes a switch goes on to fire him up. That happened today when Novak was toying with him towards the end of the third set by drop shotting him then followed up with a lob and Murray was on a string but he turned that point around hitting a cross court passing winner and he went ballistic, following it up with another cracker and he was at that different level and went on to break. If only Andy could find that level more often and be able to hold that level as when he does he can do whatever he likes or that is as it seems.

Murray HAS to start fast, Djokovic has a second chance.

It's still his to lose but Andy has a chance. I'd say 20/25%.

It's very rare that you get Novak flustered and involved in a street fight. Andy managed it, and had the match continued I'd have Andy as slight favourite to take the fourth... And then who knows? Toss a coin.

Now, can Andy get him in a fight again? I doubt it. There might only be 15 minutes of play left. Boris will be in Novak's ear telling him he's the muts nuts and Novak will exude self assurance once again in the morning. I'd be delighted to be wrong, but Andy's moment has probably passed.

Danny_1982 wrote:Murray had dragged him into a fight, got him doubting himself. He hasn't done that against Novak for a long time! Unfortunately, I think he needed to carry on tonight to have any chance. And I really think he had a chance.

Overnight Novak Djokovic will remember that he's Novak Djokovic and win the 4th. But chuffed with Andy. He is incontrovertibly back!

I agree to a point, although the way the contest unfolded was a good demonstration of how fickle our impressions of a tennis match can be. Andy did pick up a bit during the 3rd, but if Novak had been just a little more ruthless, the match could have been done and dusted before Andy got round to flicking a switch and playing that inspired game to break. We'd have then be berating him for another tame surrender against Novak.

Having said that, I do think there are some encouraging signs for Andy. When Andy used to be beating Novak, he was never able to simply blow him off the court. The way he used to win was by dragging Novak into scrappy dogfights and getting into his head. The problem since his injury lay-off is that he's lost confidence in his ability to stay the course physically. As a result, I don't think it's clear in his head what his strategy should be and that's led to panic and his game falling away alarmingly at times. Yes, he can't afford to be passive against Novak, but he also needs to be careful not to over press, as Novak is so good at soaking up pressure and extracting errors though his court smothering game.

I think the end of today's play was a reminder of what Andy's core strategy against Novak should be - namely getting down and dirty and hoping to get into Novak's head.

Murray is returning first, which offers a silver of light. Could catch Djokovic cold. Think he loses a fifth, if it does get there... But...

I think we got clues as to why Murray loses more than he wins against Novak. He needs to find top gear to throw Novak off his stride but often Andy struggles to get to that top gear. Watch Andy's past matches and it happened today sometimes it takes him to get real fired up to get into that gear but once he is there he can compete and win sets V Novak. The big trick is finding a way to get that top gear out of Andy more.

It is like a switch goes on in his head that sends his mind to a far better place banishing the negativity that often inhabits his grey matter.

Haddie-nuff wrote:Has anyone else noticed that Novak's hairdo makes his head look like a microphone? Just saying.....

I would have said more like a bogbrush

good one haddie

go on bobbrush clean the toilet

CaledonianCraig wrote:I think we got clues as to why Murray loses more than he wins against Novak. He needs to find top gear to throw Novak off his stride but often Andy struggles to get to that top gear. Watch Andy's past matches and it happened today sometimes it takes him to get real fired up to get into that gear but once he is there he can compete and win sets V Novak. The big trick is finding a way to get that top gear out of Andy more.

It is like a switch goes on in his head that sends his mind to a far better place banishing the negativity that often inhabits his grey matter.

Fitness basically dictates their matches and Andy didn't have the same level as Novak for a year

Now they're equal in fitness, but Novak is far better than Andy on clay, so I'm impressed that our man has been able to slow the juggernaut

For me, no matter what happens - the tales of Andy been cowed by him are gone, not that I ever believed them

I expect Novak to win, simply because he's better on this surface - but this match has helped Murray greatly

All was well until the wind whipped up and we all know Novak hates playing in wind (USO 12 anyone?). It really stresses him out and he looked jaded by the end. I feel the break is better for him than Murray.

All that said, I actually feel the biggest challenge, should be win, lies in the final as Wawrinka is maybe the only guy he really fears on tour because Stan has the ability to genuinely blow him off court if his game is on...I just have a sneaking feeling that he'll lose to Stan in the final in 4 sets...after all the joy of getting past Rafa...would be ironic to fail after being the overwhelming favourite post-Rafa victory.

Danny_1982 wrote:It's very rare that you get Novak flustered and involved in a street fight. Andy managed it, and had the match continued I'd have Andy as slight favourite to take the fourth... And then who knows? Toss a coin.

Now, can Andy get him in a fight again? I doubt it. There might only be 15 minutes of play left. Boris will be in Novak's ear telling him he's the muts nuts and Novak will exude self assurance once again in the morning. I'd be delighted to be wrong, but Andy's moment has probably passed.  

Agreed. But like their US Open match in reverse, the catcher (in this case Murray) would likely have spent so much energy, that they were toast for the 5th

Now, if it got there it's a one set shoot out. The reality is the scores are largely irrelevant

I still expect Novak to win

lydian wrote:All was well until the wind whipped up and we all know Novak hates playing in wind (USO 12 anyone?). It really stresses him out and he looked jaded by the end. I feel the break is better for him than Murray.

All that said, I actually feel the biggest challenge, should be win, lies in the final as Wawrinka is maybe the only guy he really fears on tour because Stan has the ability to genuinely blow him off court if his game is on...I just have a sneaking feeling that he'll lose to Stan in the final in 4 sets...after all the joy of getting past Rafa...would be ironic to fail after being the overwhelming favourite post-Rafa victory.

I don't think it favours either. Novak is still the favourite and would have been, should a 5th set have occurred tonight

When these two play generally whoever has the dominant lead (two sets at slams, one set elsewhere) generally wins - because it takes so much mental energy to get back on level terms.

I also think that either would beat Stan. If Tsonga with his terrible (relative to the big four) return game can get so many break points, these two will think all their Christmas's have come at once

Silver wrote:Good game from Murray, it would've been easy to capitulate there.

I wonder what LK would think of this?

Hey Silver,

Well this far it's been a damp squib the match. It's like a formality this match up. Both play up the deuce court for an age, Andy gets the yips at a crucial stage and ends up often gifting sets away to Novak. Just as he scraps back into the match ala AO and gets a break immediately in the next set, he gives it back and hands the match on a plate. What is so frustrating is that Novak hasn't done anything special to beat Andy. Nothing. It's like boxers on steroids these two just jab jab jab until one gives in. No real heavy knock out blows. I know conditions today were tough, but I felt Andy needed to show more aggression and come in behind his shots. So many times today he had the upper hand on rallies and instead of coming in, he waited on the baseline! Novak just as guilty too.

Andy needs a real high first serve percentage of he is to take this in 5 and also not miss sitters when it matters. I feel though Novak is going to break Andy in one of his first 2 service games and run out in 4. Hope I am wrong though.

PS good to see lydian and barrystar

Stan was relatively poor today, but if he brings his 4R / QF game, he will be a very tough proposition.

Decent fight from Murray today, he did well. I don't think he'll be able to avoid the defeat (is that 11 of the last 12?), but he's made huge inroads psychologically just by hanging tough. Wimbledon looking even more interesting now!

LK: Good to see you back! Thanks for your thoughts on the match

Ha! I will get to watch some SF - a nice unexpected bonus.

I suspect Nole will wrap it up very quickly - I can more easily see Andy blundering an early game away than Nole.

But if Andy somehow manages to take the 4th set, he may have a good chance. Nole is bound to get nervous - his chance to finally win the FO and all the related pressure will be on his mind.

Jahu wrote:

temporary21 wrote:Match over now... I can get dinner on

SO is this how Djoko carries the mantle of the Number 1, that you were pushing down my throat? Faking injuries every GS?  

Djoko is quite irritating with his injury fakes - possibly the worst player that way.  He took an MTO at 5:2 in the 5th set of his USO final against Murray just before Andy was going to serve for the match and I think he may have taken one early in the fifth set of his Wimbledon final against Fed last year - a couple of shining examples among many others.

legendkillarV2 wrote: What is so frustrating is that Novak hasn't done anything special to beat Andy. Nothing. It's like boxers on steroids these two just jab jab jab until one gives in. No real heavy knock out blows. I know conditions today were tough, but I felt Andy needed to show more aggression and come in behind his shots. So many times today he had the upper hand on rallies and instead of coming in, he waited on the baseline! Novak just as guilty too.

Andy needs a real high first serve percentage of he is to take this in 5 and also not miss sitters when it matters. I feel though Novak is going to break Andy in one of his first 2 service games and run out in 4. Hope I am wrong though.

Tsonga v Wawrinka

W/UEs - 39/53, 60/48
BPs Won - 1/17, 3/15

Total games - 45

Average Winners per game - 39 + 60 / 45 = 2.2 (Total Winners 99)
Average Errors per game - 53 + 48 / 45 ~ 2.5 (Total Errors 101)

From http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/stats/day18/1602ms.html?promo=sumscores

Djokovic v Murray

W/UEs - 42/35, 33/39
BPs Won - 4/16, 2/2

Total Games - 36

Average Winners per game - 42 + 33 / 36 ~ 2.1 (Total Winners 75)
Average Errors per game - 35 + 39 / 36 ~ 2.1 (Total Errors 74)

From http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/stats/day18/1601ms.html?promo=sumscores

Relatively speaking, less risk taking in Djokovic v Murray compared to Tsonga v Wawrinka. Need to redo these once the match is completed.