Ranking Points Djokovic 2015 vs Federer 2006

So Novak now has 16,145 ranking points, which is a record.

However, points were doubled some years ago.

Roger Federer had 8,370 points at the end of 2006. Note that he did achieve his highest at the year end as it happens. This is the most he ever got. Double that (because tournament winning points were doubled) and you get 16,740 which is more than Novak has now.

However that is not fair because tournament winning points were doubled, but others (F, SF etc) were not doubled. A change was made so that the F, SF points were downgraded a little relative to winning.

Some threads on another forum (google "most atp rankings points") featured some calculations of Federer's 2006 at today's points and most estimates were in the range 15,000-16,000, with one at 15,745 being the highest. So Djokovic now has more points.

Both players had the same WWWF record at slams as well as being holder of the world tour finals.

At Masters Novak currently has (over last 12 months) 5 Ws, 2 finals, 1 SF, and one absence. http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/novak-djokovic/d643/rankings-breakdown
At Masters, Roger achieved (in calendear year 2006) 4 Ws, 2 Fs, R2, and two absences. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer_career_statistics
So the superior masters record is what puts Djokovic a little ahead.

However to add to the debate, Federer had to play best of five set finals at IW, Miami, Monte Carlo, Rome and Madrid - 5 best of sets finals albeit winning the hard court ones in straight sets. This would have made it harder to play as many matches and tournaments in a season and accrue as many points. After a very long 5-set final in Rome, Federer withdrew from Hamburg in 2006 which came straight after. Had he played BO3 like Novak in every masters series this year, he might well have been able to play at Hamburg. Had he played at Hamburg he might well have reached the final or won it as he did the year before and after (05 and 07). Therefore it can be argued that it is unfair to rate Djokovic's season as better just because he scored slightly more comparable points.

Federer's loss to Murray at Cincinatti in 2006 also cost Federer points as that was a very winnable tournament for him otherwise at that time. However we cannot blame that one on a 5-set final causing extra tiredness. In the previous tournament at Canada, Roger played best of 3 final.

On the thread on another forum I mentioned someone attempted to score Mcenroe '84 with modern points and it was thought to be similar or slightly less than Federer/Djokovic best years, but in the margin for error. However Connors (who had a similarly dominant year in the 70s) and Mcenroe didn't play as full a schedule as today, and did achieve a better W-L record so could have done better in a modern season. Rod Laver 1969 would likely have scored lower, as he won 18 of the 32 singles tournaments he entered (still the Open Era titles record) and compiled a 106–16 win-loss record. He doesn't seem to have been able to generate as good a match or tournament winning record as Federer 06 or Djokovic 14/15, so I would guess it they had had 9 masters series in those days he wouldn't have had as good a record of Djokovic and Federer. Although admittedly it is harder to win so consistently across so many tournaments.

Well the thing that is really impressive for me is that when you compare this season to the year Fed had in 06 Novak's I think is better. Novak has been to the final in every event he has entered since Abu dhabi the first tournament of the season. That is ten finals in a row. And he is the holder of 5 of the 9 Masters. He has three this season and he usually plays even better in the indoor season than he does on outdoor hardcourt because he prefers cooler temps and no wind. He would need just one more Masters out the two remaining and I think he probably will win in Asia where he seemingly destroys all before him most of the time.

Does any of you stat heads know what is the record for most consecutive finals appearances in the final era. I think it was Mac 84 but Djokovic has got to be threatening that.

Off the top of my head, Socal, Federer made the final of every tournament he played for a stretch of something like fourteen months. He lost to Nadal in the Semis at the French in 2005, but then made the final of every tournament he played for the rest of the year and didn't fall before the final match of any tournament in 2006 until Cincinnati against Murray, which was the only time he fell short of a final that whole year.

At a guess, that must have made a run of something like fifteen tournaments on the spin where Federer made the final. Not sure if there's any advance on that?

Gave in and had a look - it was actually seventeen consecutive finals Federer made starting with Halle 2005 and ending with Toronto 2006. Insane.

Yes that is an incredible streak that means that Djokovic would have to get to the final of every tournament that he plays till Indian Wells assuming he doesn't withdraw from Beijing. Truly remarkable run that is by Federer.

Fed also made 16 finals out of 17 events played in 2006, thats crazy. He lost all three finals on clay to Nadal that year, Nadal was so dominant on clay that year ( Nadal didnt lose a match on clay that year) unlike the 2015 Nadal.

Fed was 92-5 W/L that year, winning 12 titles, hard to match that not to mention better that.

2011 might have been more impressive as it came off the back of Rafa's 2010. Also he beat Rafa in 6 finals in 2011, so it looks like Rafa kept up his high level, but Djokovic just got better.

In my opinion Djokovic was actually playing better tennis in 2011 too. He just had more competition.

That said, is there a more dominant world number one in sport today? Maybe Serena I suppose.

Djokovic has ended the year on 16,585.
He also achieved 16,785 on 26th October and 19th October.
Failing to maintain that by the end of the season due to his group stage loss against Federer at the WTF.

However probably doing enough to end the best ranking points debate against Federer, since while it is hard to directly compare, and some grey area remains, it looks reasonably close to conclusive that Djokovic's current ranking points is the best achieved in the modern era.

If he could win Doha this year, he could improve from 45 points to 250 which would presumably add 205 and take him to a new record of 16,790.

If he wins Australian open again to remain level, and then wins Dubai, going from finalist last year to winner this year, he goes from 300 to 500, which might be 16,990.

I'm assuming there aren't any other shenanigans about countables or Davis Cup that could effect this.

After that it's all going to be downhill from there unless he makes this into the mother of all winning streaks right through to the end of the French Open.

Great analysis HB, we are lucky you did the work. Again, I mean to me a difference of a 100 points in 16,000 is not really even a very statistically relevant. I mean we are talking about less than one percentage point.

The record here Novak will presumably be chasing is the consecutive finals one. I am presuming he is homing in on 17 having made every final from Oz Open onwards.

Socal said he needs to get to every final to Indian Wells. I might double check this if he gets to the next few finals. Obviously it will also depend on whether he adds or remove a 250 etc to the schedule.

He is on 15 so IW would be Australia, Dubai and IW - the minimum he will play.

To me, the only way he doesnt make this, is if either Nadal or Federer meet him in a semi final, no big hitters I see right now have the required mental nouse, or net strength to dump him early

Good data HB, thanks.  2015 one of the all-time best years obviously.  To me, it is probably not the best year of them all - I would have Connors and McEnroe ahead of this, but I would rate it a touch better than Fed's 2006.  But just very marginally so.

I felt that if he went through the WTF unbeaten, his year would be a bit better than Fed's 2006, and if failed to win WTF, the year would be a bit worse.  He managed to do something in-between - win WTF but lose a match there.  Still, I would say marginally better than Fed's 2006.

Yeah, obviously, the consecutive finals is the next possible milestone.  I believe that while Fed is at 17, the record is 18 by Lendl.  So presumably that is the number that Djokovic is chasing.

temporary21 wrote:To me, the only way he doesnt make this, is if either Nadal or Federer meet him in a semi final, no big hitters I see right now have the required mental nouse, or net strength to dump him early

This is an anomaly, but can happen

Doha 2015 Quarter-Finals 27 Ivo Karlovic L 76(2) 67(6) 46

(I was very surprised that Djokovic lost this one).

summerblues wrote:Good data HB, thanks.  2015 one of the all-time best years obviously.  To me, it is probably not the best year of them all - I would have Connors and McEnroe ahead of this, but I would rate it a touch better than Fed's 2006.  But just very marginally so.

I felt that if he went through the WTF unbeaten, his year would be a bit better than Fed's 2006, and if failed to win WTF, the year would be a bit worse.  He managed to do something in-between - win WTF but lose a match there.  Still, I would say marginally better than Fed's 2006.

You could head on over and read the thread https://www.606v2.com/t61383p50-is-novak-s-year-the-second-best-of-the-open-era-after-laver and add your thoughts there perhaps (if not already done). Worth a look.

Ranking points: Djokovic did indeed win Doha and set a new record of 16,790 as I said. He now wins the Australian Open to maintain the record and retain the possibility of setting an even better record.

He lost the Dubai final last year so if he plays and wins Dubai this year (500 points rather than 300) he could get to 16,990, I imagine.

After that, he has to defend full points at IW, Miami, Monte Carlo and Rome, so you would expect a decline.

If he goes WWFF in that stretch, or worse, then he has lost 800 points or more, which means he would need to win FO and Wimbledon just to equal the current record.

If he manages WWWF or WWWS in that 4-masters stretch, then he would be able to increase the record by winning the French Open.

All this is assuming he plays the same tournaments as last year.

If he adds Madrid and plays all masters there is a chance to extend the record.

If he adds a 250 or 500 of course that factors in as well. He has played so few of them that I expect countables won't be an issue.

Another issue is Davis Cup but ignoring that for now.

Consecutive finals:
I make that 17 now for Djoko. I count 15 last season. Double check the count here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Novak_Djokovic_tennis_season
Plus 2 this season.

So Chris above said Federer made 17 as well, so Djoko has now equalled that record.

He just needs one more to beat that record and SB suggested 18 could be the record from Lendl, so to equal that as well.

Good analysis showing that based on objective points djokovic's dominance is now have seen in the open era

Wow, that really is utter domination to be honest. That number of points is ridiculous...to think guys getting into the top 100 need just >500ish. Right now Djokovic is forging his own path...

Consecutive finals update: He exited QF in Dubai with a loss. It was a retirement, but I think that still counts as ending the streak, I make that a 17 streak then.

As to the ranking points, the QF loss at Dubai means he has fallen from his peak of 16,790 to 16,540.

Now he has defended IW and Miami, it might be realistic for him to create a new record with a strong clay season. Last year he won Rome and Monte Carlo, but did not play Madrid. So he could create a new record by playing all three, winning two, and reaching SF at the other.

If he wins the French Open, that could create a new record as well of course.

Last chance for him to boost his ranking points would be to improve on his Canada-Cincinatti F-F. After that no chance since he's won everything from US Open through Miami.

Another interesting way of looking at the rankings is whether the #1 has more points than the #2 and #3 combined - which strikes me as a good indicator of his relative dominance over the field.  

Djokovic has now achieved that very impressive distinction, although he did not as at the 2015 year end.  Federer managed it at the 2006 year end by a very big margin - Djoko could yet expand his lead in that respect.

There seems little doubt that between Fedal and Djoko at the end of their careers, they will share pretty much all the big statistical records, and make up #1 #2 #3 for many of them.  I think that the two biggest ones are Feds' current slam total and weeks at #1; it would be possible, albeit one hell of an effort for Djoko or Nadal to beat either of them.  If Djoko picks up a CYGS that would be pretty damn special.

The amazing stat is also this - if you subtract ALL of Djokovic's slam points...then he's still #1 ranked player

In fact he'd still have a 1000 point lead! This isnt the first time a player has had double the points of the #2 player. Djokovic already had more than double in October 2015 (and a record lead of 8,535 points) but this time he's made a new record of points difference between #1 and#2: 8,725 points lead!

Fed's peak 2006 points was 15495 (wiki), Novak's peak points has been 16790. Oh and he's also become the first player to win 7 tournaments at least three times in a row. He is the new benchmark for dominance and consistency, this is starting to rack up to be total and utter domination

I can see the #1 weeks record going, after all who is going to consistently stop him over he next 2 years?
That's 'all' he needs...yes anything can happen but I don't see any of the current players on tour, not even the younger ones, usurping him any time soon.

The only stat for him I doubt is the slam record as he just started too late amassing them. I reckon he'll finish on 15-16...but everything else will go.

Why is Federer the yardstick? Why not use Nadal in 2009-2010 where the scaling is unnecessary?

If Federer is the yardstick, who is the dipstick

lydian wrote:The amazing stat is also this - if you subtract ALL of Djokovic's slam points...then he's still #1 ranked player

In fact he'd still have a 1000 point lead! This isnt the first time a player has had double the points of the #2 player. Djokovic already had more than double in October 2015 (and a record lead of 8,535 points) but this time he's made a new record of points difference between #1 and#2: 8,725 points lead!

Fed's peak 2006 points was 15495 (wiki), Novak's peak points has been 16790. Oh and he's also become the first player to win 7 tournaments at least three times in a row. He is the new benchmark for dominance and consistency, this is starting to rack up to be total and utter domination

I can see the #1 weeks record going, after all who is going to consistently stop him over he next 2 years?
That's 'all' he needs...yes anything can happen but I don't see any of the current players on tour, not even the younger ones, usurping him any time soon.

The only stat for him I doubt is the slam record as he just started too late amassing them. I reckon he'll finish on 15-16...but everything else will go.

Yes, that is how I see it. I think Fed's 17 is still probably safe, it might not be if Novak gets 3 or 4 this year; but if I had to wager I would put 17 as relatively safe. But weeks at number 1 and YE #1 record is in serious jeopardy. Remember when Novak overhauled Nadal's points lead in 2011 he had to win everything from the start of the season all the way through Wimbeldon. An even bigger points push would be needed to overhaul Novak and would take many, many months of someone outplaying him to overhaul him. Already he is in the 180s for weeks at number 1. So if someone tomorrow went on a year long romp like Novak in 2011, beating him in final after final he would still probably not be able to overtake Novak till the summer or fall. That is if someone goes crazy like right now. So he is basically guaranteed of being in the low to mid 200 weeks at number 1. He most likely is the YE #1 this year and therefore ties fed with 5 YE #1s and is just one short of Sampras' record.

Novak moves to 16,950 a new rankings record I think. He went down 400 points after losing Rome but goes up 800 up the French Open.

Next has to defend the full 2000 at Wimbledon, then 600 for Canada and Cincinatti which he could boost to 1,000.

Right so Novak wins 90 points there, and loses 2000. That's a net loss of 1,910.

15,040 will be his new ranking.

If he wins Canada+ Cincinatti he goes up 800 = 15,840.

If he defends US Open, stays the same.

If he wins Paris, Shanghai and the World tour finals, he just defends the same points, and stays the same.

So if he plays and wins everything to the end of the season, he will still be only on 15,840.

Oh, and that's if he plays and defends 500 points at Beijing as well!!

But no worries he can gain points! But first he will need to also defend Australian Open, Doha, Indian Wells, Miami before he can get started on trying to go higher than that.

Ah, no, wait, he got 90 points at Dubai, so he can go up there to 500. That's a gain of 410. Boom. 16,250.

Then there's Monte Carlo, he can improve from 10 points to 1000 there, that's a gain of 990. Up to 17,240! Yeah! A new record. Should be easy.

Isn't that mad?

Assuming that Novak doesn't play various extra 250s/500s (not going to happen) it's mathematically impossible for Novak to improve his current ranking points before Monte Carlo! Wow. Talk about a good last 12 months and a ranking that's going to be hard to beat.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/novak-djokovic/d643/rankings-breakdown
Check this out: 4 out of 4 slams, WTF + 5 out of 9 masters (finals in 8 out of 9).

To look at it another, simpler way, he just lost 1,910 points and has the following gains possible between now and Monte Carlo.
Cincinatti, Canada - 2x400=800
Dubai = 410.
Monte Carlo = 990 points gain.
Total = 2,200.

We all talk about how far ahead of everyone Nole is, and rightly so.  But Murray has been sneaking in in the 2016 Race.  If he were to win on Sunday, he would be within about 800 points of Novak, and with a fighting chance to finish the year at No 1.

SB

I'd noticed that as well, but was waiting till after Sunday to comment. Would still need Andy to do particularly well (or Novak particularly badly) in the Canada - Cinci - USO sequence for Andy to actually push ahead, and even then he's not likely to get to #1 in the rankings until the WTF points drop off (iirc, Novak has 1100 more points from last year's WTF).

It shows what a big loss (in terms of ranking points) it was for Novak to only get 180 points for Wimby - if Andy wins he'll actually have more race points from GSs than Novak (1200 + 1200 + 2000 = 4400 compared with 2000 + 2000 + 180 = 4180).

Novak has only got 90 points for Wimbledon (out in R3)

This thread seems a long time ago now.

On 27th June, 2016 Djokovic had the record of 16,950 and Murray was on 8,915, just over half. (Murray was on 10,195 after Wimbledon.)

Now Murray is on 11,185 and Djokovic 10,780.

Combining the points of both, 25,865 points on 27th June, 21965 now.

Murray has gone up +25% since then but Novak down -64%.

However, these statistics about it being more a Novak decline than a Murray rise wouldn't be nearly so pronounced if Murray had gotten 1,000 or 1,500 for winning the Olympics instead of the 0 he actually got.

Also possibly a bit of cherry picking by comparing to the day of Djokovic's absolute peak.

HB

One big difference in combined points is that currently there are no WTF points included, which knocks 1500 off straight away (1300 for Novak and 200 for Andy).

Otherwise, 800 go for Novak losing to Stan at the USO and probably a few hundred here and there with for example Novak not making the final in Paris. Also, Andy missed Toronto to focus on the Olympics, so reasonable to assume he'd have picked up a few hundred more there (and likely have beaten Cilic in Cinci).

Olympics only awarded 750 points in the past. If there's no Olympics, Murray would most likely be playing at Toronto, and I doubt he would win both Toronto and Cincy BTB.

Djoko lost many points at Wimbledon - a good 1910 points; his gain at FO was offset by loss at USO. Together with WTF points dropped off, it's a good 3210 points already. Not forgetting his loss of 500 at Beijing, 640 at Shanghai and 820 at Paris, a further loss of another 1960 points.

Good point on the WTF points, so perhaps with that factored in the combined points aren't hugely different. Could account for around half that difference perhaps.