Scotland v Japan, 23 September

by **George Carlin** Thu 17 Sep 2015, 6:42 am

First topic message reminder :

Scotland v Japan, 23 September - Page 6 Scot_f10

SCOTLAND V JAPAN
23 September 2015
KO: 14:30 BST
Kingsholm, Gloucester

Live on [tbc]

Referee: John Lacey (Ireland)
Touch judges: George Clancy (Ireland) & Marius Mitrea (Italy)
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

A. Head to Head

4 Played 4
4 Won 0
0 Drawn 0
0 Lost 4
221 Points 45

B. Recent Form

09 Nov 2013
Scotland 42 - 17 Japan
Murrayfield, Edinburgh

13 Nov 2004
Scotland 100 - 8 Japan
McDiarmid Park, Perth

12 Oct 2003
Scotland 32 - 11 Japan
Dairy Farmers Stadium, Townsville

05 Oct 1991
Scotland 47 - 9 Japan
Murrayfield, Edinburgh

C. Teams

SCOTLAND
Scotland v Japan, 23 September - Page 6 Kirsty10

Scotland v Japan, 23 September - Page 6 Kirsty10

15 Stuart Hogg
14 Tommy Seymour
13 Mark Bennett
12 Matt Scott
11 Sean Lamont
10 Finn Russell
09 Greig Laidlaw (c)

01 Ali Dickinson
02 Ross Ford
03 Willem Nel
04 Grant Gilchrist
05 Jonny Gray
06 Ryan Wilson
07 John Hardie
08 David Denton

16 Fraser Brown
17 Ryan Grant
18 Jon Welsh
19 Richie Gray
20 Joshua Strauss
21 Henry Pyrgos
22 Peter Horne
23 Sean Maitland

JAPAN
Scotland v Japan, 23 September - Page 6 Koshib10

Scotland v Japan, 23 September - Page 6 Koshib10

01- Keita Inagaki
02- Shota Horie
03- Hiroshi Yamashita
04- Luke Thompson
05- Justin Ives
06- Michael Leitch (captain)
07- Michael Broadhurst
08- Amanaki Mafi

09- Fumiaki Tanaka
10- Harumichi Tatekawa
11- Kenki Fukuoka
12- Yu Tamura
13- Male Sa'u
14- Kotaro Matsushima
15- Ayumu Goromaru

16- Takeshi Kizu
17- Masataka Mikami
18- Kensuke Hatakeyama
19- Shinya Makabe
20- Shoji Ito
21- Hendrik Tui
22- Atsushi Hiwasa
23- Karne Hesketh

by Weegie Wizard Tue 22 Sep 2015, 12:08 pm

Fa, whilst I don't want to get into the whole 6N side of what you're saying, you are completely right about this game.

Japan played very well and the Boks did not. Even then, SA should have had the brains and the defence to see the game out.

If Japan manage a similar level of performance again so soon after their last game that is to be admired but even then we should still win by more than a score unless we play as badly as the boks did. If Japan play below their level at the weekend (which, to me, seems likely) we should be looking to pile on the points.

We should be targeting 5 points in this game. Due to the lack of recovery time for Japan, the result at the weekend changes very little.

by EWT Spoons Tue 22 Sep 2015, 12:14 pm

fa0019 wrote:
EWT Spoons wrote:
fa0019 wrote:If Scotland can't beat Japan... they shouldn't be in the 6N and this is coming from a Scotland supporter.

If Japan can only just get past Georgia and are beaten by Fiji, Tonga and the USA and Scotland lost to them then they have no right to be in the premier European tournament over other sides.

They certainly shouldn't be getting premier matches vs. 3N sides come the AIs if that's the case.

I see what you are saying, but considering Japan just beat South Africa, who up until that match were 3rd in the IRB rankings, I don't think we can write them off. I mean should South Africa be kicked out The Rugby Championship because they lost to Japan?

Yes we should beat Japan, but I don't think one result (either way) should impact a totally seperate tournament.

Yes but SA were 2nd in the world 12 months ago. They have recent form.

Scotland's form has been constant to be fair, constantly dire for the last decade and a half.

In terms of the 16 6N champions we've never won more than 3 matches in a single tournament and that was achieved only once. 11 times we've won either a single game or nought. If we take Italy out the equation our wooden spoon record would have probably been the worst in 5N history in terms of length.

Personally I think we should have a relegation battle each year with the best of the rest i.e. Georgia... a 2 legged affair for the worst team in the 6N annually.

Sometimes you have to be cruel to be kind.

You're not wrong, our record in the 6 nations is nothing to write home about, but to suggest we should be kicked out of it, should we lose to Japan, who just beat until recently, the 2nd best team in the World in a totally seperate competition, doesn't really make sense to me.

Also kicking Scotland out of the 6 nations, wouldn't be “cruel to be kind” it would start the death spiral of Scottish rugby. We have the pro teams, but neither of them is making enough money to subside themselves, the majority of their funding is from the national team. Take away the 6 nations and the money the SRU makes is gone, which would then see at least 1, if not both pro teams going out of existence, as it’s unlikely the SRU could continue to fund them both, or certainly not to a similar level for a prolonged period.

I’m all for giving the like of Georgia and other teams just below the traditional top nations a chance and helping build rugby in these countries, but killing off another team for that purpose doesn’t seem the right way of doing things, and certainly not based on losing to a team who just beat South Africa.

However, I think we should win against Japan, but considering how much Japanese rugby is progressing and with them getting a team into the Super15, I fully expect them to be challenging more and more over the next few years.

by tigertattie Tue 22 Sep 2015, 12:21 pm

I'm nailing Bru's stones to the mast here and saying we'll beat japan by 20!

by Eejit Tue 22 Sep 2015, 12:30 pm

The only difference between this moment and last week is the media circus surrounding Japan given their success at the weekend. This was a must-win 5 pointer last week and nothing has changed today, just like the USA game is in 5 days time.

Japan play great attacking rugby. So do we, and we're probably better at it than they are. If our guys get the basics right on Wednesday we'll come away with a comfortable win and hopefully disappoint some neutrals along the way hoping for another Cinderella story.

If anybody is going to the game might I suggest black cowboy hats amongst any other generic evil tropes. Because at 4pm tomorrow I hope everyone hates us for piling the points on everyone's second team.

by IanBru Tue 22 Sep 2015, 12:37 pm

Tattie, I swear you have your hands on my stones more often than I do.

by flyhalffactory Tue 22 Sep 2015, 1:00 pm

OK we are officially the underdogs for the next match against our friends from the far east.

1 (1) New Zealand 92.89
2 (2) Australia 86.67
3 (4) England 85.04
4 (5) Wales 84.63
5 (6) Ireland 84.40
6 (3) South Africa 81.15
7 (7) France 81.12
8 (8) Argentina 78.39
9 (9) Fiji 77.04
10 (12) Samoa 76.18
11 (13) Japan 76.06
12 (10) SCOTLAND 75.88
16 (15) USA 69.32

So based on that and Japans fantastic and thoroughly deserved victory of the team with the best world cup record, I am predicting a Scottish controlled, forward dominated win margin of 11 points and we will score four tries for a BP victory, with a couple of tries from Schlong, Bennett and bringing up the rear (oooooh vicar!) will be a couple by Hardie and one of the Grays.

Seriously though, if we come out of the match uninjured and with a BP win, its going to put massive pressure on SA when they play Samoa on Saturday, they know it could realistically mean them still on 2pts if Samoa turn them over. The match could be the one game that decides who goes through, its going to be physically explosive, and mentally draining for both camps, Samoa will not back down to the Boks physical approach, and I cannot see either team coming out of that game unscathed. Added to that they will know we will rotate players against the USA (especially if we have already 5pts in the bag) By next Sunday the table "could" show a well managed rotated Scotland squad on 10 pts, Japan on 7pts max, Samoa on 5pts min to 10pts max, and SA on 7pts max or 2pts min.

Believe! Braveheart

by **Notch** Tue 22 Sep 2015, 1:04 pm

NeilyBroon wrote:
Tattie Scones RRN wrote:It'll be very very different behind the scenes.

On a side note, has anyone seen that wee clip of the Jap fan meeting Shane Williams? It's on the BBC website.

Absolutely brilliant. Looking forward to having a few beers with their fans tomorrow.

I think that's the best thing I've seen. Made me smile from ear to ear. They're such lovely people, and a great laugh on a night out!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2BMSBzjBNQ

Haha! Do you think he was excited? That's priceless Very Happy

by lostinwales Tue 22 Sep 2015, 1:18 pm

If we want to extend the 6N why not get Japan in?

by flyhalffactory Tue 22 Sep 2015, 1:33 pm

lostinwales wrote:If we want to extend the 6N why not get Japan in?

You are just being sake now cider

by funnyExiledScot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 1:49 pm

lostinwales wrote:If we want to extend the 6N why not get Japan in?

Do you really need an answer to that question?

by Weegie Wizard Tue 22 Sep 2015, 1:56 pm

by tigertattie Tue 22 Sep 2015, 2:19 pm

funnyExiledScot wrote:
lostinwales wrote:If we want to extend the 6N why not get Japan in?

Do you really need an answer to that question?

Why not! They are a northern hemisphere team after all Hug

by lostinwales Tue 22 Sep 2015, 2:29 pm

tigertattie wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:
lostinwales wrote:If we want to extend the 6N why not get Japan in?

Do you really need an answer to that question?

Why not! They are a northern hemisphere team after all

And who would you rather watch? Japan or Georgia? (or Italy for that matter)

by funnyExiledScot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 2:34 pm

Well I'd rather watch New Zealand than Wales - shall we invite them as well?

by lostinwales Tue 22 Sep 2015, 3:00 pm

funnyExiledScot wrote:Well I'd rather watch New Zealand than Wales - shall we invite them as well?

We could but they already have their own competition and anyway the Welsh might get upset

by funnyExiledScot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 3:01 pm

lostinwales wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:Well I'd rather watch New Zealand than Wales - shall we invite them as well?

We could but they already have their own competition and anyway the Welsh might get upset

Oh darn. I hadn't thought of that.

by **NeilyBroon** Tue 22 Sep 2015, 3:03 pm

Just watching the highlights from the Argentina game Nov 14. If Laidlaw can recapture this type of form then I will take back everything I've said about him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTtgDAYNfyY

by funnyExiledScot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 3:18 pm

Laidlaw has produced some outstanding performances in the past, and not just for Edinburgh and Gloucester. He's the best goal kicker in the squad by some distance (and we really are kidding ourselves if we don't think that it critically important) and when he's on his game he's an extremely shrewd operator.

He does have weaknesses. He isn't particularly quick so offers little attacking threat on the break in the way that Pyrgos and SH-C do (although his sharpness of mind has resulted in breaks in the past), he isn't particularly big and as a result struggled defensively in the 10 channel when he played there (not being a big jessie like Dan Parks, but purely a size issue) and his box kicking tactics under Scott Johnson completely neutered Scotland as an attacking force (although you have to part blame Scott Johnson for those tactics - I don't imagine Laidlaw was off script).

Still, I see very little between Laidlaw and the others overall, and his goal kicking means he absolutely must play.

by **George Carlin** Tue 22 Sep 2015, 3:25 pm

Interesting:

Rating place-kicking success needs context
Andy McGeady: The two factors with a significant impact on the probability of kick success are distance and angle
Andy McGeady

Risk versus reward. That’s at the heart of the silent process a rugby union captain goes through in those moments after a penalty has been awarded before looking towards the referee and deciding whether to go for the posts.

The kicking tee will arrive and the kicker will start their routine. Clear the mental mechanism. Scrum cap might come off; gumshield perhaps tucked into a sock. Slow down the breathing. The kick could be a gimme in front of the posts or 50 metres back, hugging the touchline, but the kicker’s routine should be the same. Bob is an 80 per cent kicker. That means he’s probably pretty good. But the kicking stat usually used to quantify kicking success does not discern whether a kick is from 15 metres or 50.

The unfortunate truth is that kicking percentage lies.

Jurie Nel, 37, is an actuary in Pretoria. He’s a rugby fan. In 2011 he wondered why place-kicking success was measured via the blunt instrument of success rate. A penalty attempt from 55 metres viewed as the equal of a conversion from under the posts?

Through the first three rounds of the 2015 Six Nations Johnny Sexton had a 91 per cent kicking success rate, the result of nailing 10 goals from 11 attempts. Scotland’s Greig Laidlaw had the exact same statistics. But those 11 attempts were not the same.

While the points scoring system of rugby union is what it is, in rating the work of a kicker a long kick should be rated differently than a short kick. Similarly a tight kick from the touchline versus one in front of the sticks.

In golf, Columbia Business School professor Mark Broadie was the brains behind the Stokes Gained statistics now in use on the PGA Tour. The idea was simple: by making or missing a particular shot, how many strokes did that golfer gain (or lose) compared to how the average tour golfer would have fared on a similar shot.

Points gained
Nel’s website – www.goalkickers.co.za – uses the same basic premise. It’s called points gained, and he hopes it will become a widely-used stat for rating rugby goal kickers.

Back to Sexton and Laidlaw. From those 11 attempts Sexton led the competition with five points gained compared to an average professional kicker, as calculated based on over 5,000 kick attempts Nel has entered into the software designed by his colleague Francois Theron.

Leigh Halfpenny’s 14 from 17 attempts was second, good for four points gained. Laidlaw, despite having the exact same 10 from 11 as Sexton, was awarded just a single point gained.

Why? Based on distance and angle the Scot had enjoyed the easiest attempts of the main goalkickers in the tournament. Sexton’s and Halfpenny’s had been significantly more difficult. Points gained takes that into account. It provides context. When Sexton missed a relatively straightforward penalty attempt in Cardiff, points gained was unimpressed.

In trying to add context to rugby place-kicking others have gone down a similar path to that of Nel. Mark Taylor used Opta data in 2013 to perform a similar exercise looking at a selection of matches across multiple competitions and age grades. Ken Quarrie and Wil Hopkins performed a study using 10 years of Verusco data (now Prozone) encompassing almost every Test match featuring a Tier One international side from 2002 until the end of the Rugby World Cup in 2011. That international study found that the expected success rate for a place-kick in Test rugby decreased very, very quickly when the distance went beyond 35 to 40 metres.

Bottom line
The bottom line? Distance is vitally important. So is the angle of the kick. So are other things – the gap between the two teams’ scores; the time remaining in the game, altitude, weather. But the two factors with a consistent, significant impact on the probability of kick success are distance and angle. So that’s what Nel uses.

Unfortunately Nel is doing this without a data provider. It takes him about 20 minutes to code a match containing 10 to 12 kick attempts. That’s entirely dependent both on local television coverage being available for every game and Nel having the time available to dedicate to it. He missed out on the 2014 autumn Tests, for example, but has committed to coding every major Test in 2015 including the Rugby World Cup.

The captain deciding whether to take that kick attempt won’t be thinking about kicking stats alone. Is it in their kicker’s effective range? If so, the captain’s then moving on to other considerations. Does the opposition have a good maul defence? If it’s a weak spot, that kick to the corner looks a little more appetising. While points gained might help those on the outside; the tough decisions still must be taken by those on the field.

It’s not the perfect kicking stat, but it’s a big improvement. Nel says he needs a data provider and a sponsorship partner to take care of the overheads. With kicking being such an important component of the elite level it’s remarkable an amateur enthusiast is setting the public pace with regard to this aspect of the game. Statistics are an ever-increasing part of sports coverage in 2015. Some like them, some couldn’t care less. But giving context to an important rugby stat is something this parish can get behind.

by mikey_dragon Tue 22 Sep 2015, 3:43 pm

On paper that is a good Scotland team, and despite Japan's heroics I think the Scots are still favourites. They'll surely be a bit smarter against Japan than the Springboks were, but good luck anyway as I think you will still need it!

by **RDW** Tue 22 Sep 2015, 3:45 pm

That's a lot of words to say Laidlaw's range isn't as good as Sexton or 1/2P's!

by Tattie Scones RRN Tue 22 Sep 2015, 4:13 pm

Perhaps the Welsh and Irish forwards should start winning penalties closer to the posts then!!!

by funnyExiledScot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 4:25 pm

RDW_Scotland wrote:That's a lot of words to say Laidlaw's range isn't as good as Sexton or 1/2P's!

Agreed. Cue the usual WUMs coming on here to explain why Mossy was a rubbish kicker and just took the easy ones.

What I think is important is having a kicker who knows what he can do, and what he can't. With catch and drives from the lineout back in vogue and being a serious attacking weapon, having an overconfident kicker just booting away possession is seriously costly.

Personally I think the current kicking %s are a good measure of a kicker, because it identifies those kickers who know their range and don't waste opportunities for territory and an attacking lineout. Sure, you can't control where your team scores tries, and therefore success rates from touchline conversions is something worth attempting to factor in (but those are mandatory kicks in any event), but the ability to land 1 in 12 kicks from inside your own half isn't particularly valuable to me (Stuart Hogg being a prime example).

by **George Carlin** Tue 22 Sep 2015, 4:31 pm

funnyExiledScot wrote:
RDW_Scotland wrote:That's a lot of words to say Laidlaw's range isn't as good as Sexton or 1/2P's!

Agreed. Cue the usual WUMs coming on here to explain why Mossy was a rubbish kicker and just took the easy ones.

What I think is important is having a kicker who knows what he can do, and what he can't. With catch and drives from the lineout back in vogue and being a serious attacking weapon, having an overconfident kicker just booting away possession is seriously costly.

Personally I think the current kicking %s are a good measure of a kicker, because it identifies those kickers who know their range and don't waste opportunities for territory and an attacking lineout. Sure, you can't control where your team scores tries, and therefore success rates from touchline conversions is something worth attempting to factor in (but those are mandatory kicks in any event), but the ability to land 1 in 12 kicks from inside your own half isn't particularly valuable to me (Stuart Hogg being a prime example).

This

.

by **RDW** Tue 22 Sep 2015, 4:34 pm

The Fiji game showed the importance of having a 90% + kicker for all kicks within the 10m line.

Even Michalak's kicking can be dodgy.

One of my pet hates in rugby is Stuart Hogg attempting long range kicks from in his own half - he must be on around 1 in 12 now as FES says. What's the point!!

by funnyExiledScot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 4:42 pm

Worryingly Jack Cuthbert appears to have taken on the long range kicker role with Edinburgh, and his kicking accuracy is worse than Hoggy.

Far better to kick to touch, gain possession in the right area of the field and potentially win another penalty closer to the sticks or get a backline move going in the opposition 22.

by **RDW** Tue 22 Sep 2015, 4:47 pm

On the topic of kicking, probably fair to say that we’re not going to pass up on any opportunities like SA did. They were going for the 4 try win before they had put themselves in a position to win in the first place – we certainly won’t be doing the same.

We’ve got to keep the scoreboard ticking over.

by **George Carlin** Tue 22 Sep 2015, 4:49 pm

RDW_Scotland wrote:The Fiji game showed the importance of having a 90% + kicker for all kicks within the 10m line.

Even Michalak's kicking can be dodgy.

One of my pet hates in rugby is Stuart Hogg attempting long range kicks from in his own half - he must be on around 1 in 12 now as FES says. What's the point!!

Mark Bennett has has much higher success rate around the 50m mark in any event.

by funnyExiledScot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 4:51 pm

RDW_Scotland wrote:On the topic of kicking, probably fair to say that we’re not going to pass up on any opportunities like SA did. They were going for the 4 try win before they had put themselves in a position to win in the first place – we certainly won’t be doing the same.

We’ve got to keep the scoreboard ticking over.

100%. I don't give a stuff about bonus points. We need three wins from this group. If it's kickable and Laidlaw is comfortable, take the three points. This is tournament rugby. If the win is in the bag and the bonus point is on, different story.

by funnyExiledScot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 4:52 pm

George Carlin wrote:
RDW_Scotland wrote:The Fiji game showed the importance of having a 90% + kicker for all kicks within the 10m line.

Even Michalak's kicking can be dodgy.

One of my pet hates in rugby is Stuart Hogg attempting long range kicks from in his own half - he must be on around 1 in 12 now as FES says. What's the point!!
Mark Bennett has has much higher success rate around the 50m mark in any event.

Agreed. The Seraphim and Cherubim waft the ball through the posts.

by **RDW** Tue 22 Sep 2015, 4:53 pm

George Carlin wrote:
RDW_Scotland wrote:The Fiji game showed the importance of having a 90% + kicker for all kicks within the 10m line.

Even Michalak's kicking can be dodgy.

One of my pet hates in rugby is Stuart Hogg attempting long range kicks from in his own half - he must be on around 1 in 12 now as FES says. What's the point!!
Mark Bennett has has much higher success rate around the 50m mark in any event.

To be fair, he's only actually tried a handful of kicks!

by funnyExiledScot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 5:00 pm

Probably because Hogg gets in there first and steals the ball from him! He isn't lacking in confidence is our Stuart.

by highland_scot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 5:13 pm

RDW_Scotland wrote:
George Carlin wrote:
RDW_Scotland wrote:The Fiji game showed the importance of having a 90% + kicker for all kicks within the 10m line.

Even Michalak's kicking can be dodgy.

One of my pet hates in rugby is Stuart Hogg attempting long range kicks from in his own half - he must be on around 1 in 12 now as FES says. What's the point!!
Mark Bennett has has much higher success rate around the 50m mark in any event.

To be fair, he's only actually tried a handful of kicks!

But, his kicks from inside his own half have cleared the bar with plenty to spare. Really good kicker, if unorthodox. Think his kicking style is better suited to long kicks in the wind than Hoggy - Hoggy's kicks are quite high and loopy whereas Bennett gives them a good punt with a flat flight so it's less likely to catch in the wind.

by highland_scot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 5:15 pm

funnyExiledScot wrote:Probably because Hogg gets in there first and steals the ball from him! He isn't lacking in confidence is our Stuart.

Remember his ridiculous drop goal attempts in the 6N 2013? Inside our own half, just in from the touchline, thinking he's Frans Steyn!

by funnyExiledScot Tue 22 Sep 2015, 5:20 pm

True, although his confidence is a big part of his game. I wouldn't want to discourage him too much, just not the long rang kicks!

by Eejit Tue 22 Sep 2015, 5:38 pm

True. I think Hoggy works best as a graduate of the Niko Matawalu school of 'what the f*ck did I just see' to be honest.

by 123456789 Tue 22 Sep 2015, 6:09 pm

To be fair to Hogg he normally gets given the ball when we win a penalty on the cusp of half time and it's normally a case of might as well give it a try. If you're taking in distance as a factor you have to take in circumstance as well.

by Tattie Scones RRN Tue 22 Sep 2015, 6:10 pm

Well well well, Jones is really going for it today!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/34327792

He may live to regret opening his gob come Thursday at 4.30pm.

I feicing hope so anyway.

by 123456789 Tue 22 Sep 2015, 6:38 pm

He's going the wrong way about being the fan's favourite and a plucky underdog. To me the it comes down to whether or not we have better players from 1-15 than Japan, we do in my opinion unquestionably, from then of the players play to their potential then there should be no doubt about the result. The closer we get to the game the more I hope that we absolutely annihilate them for two reasons; one is that Eddie Jones is a prize knob-end, and secondly that a big five point win will put us in a very strong place, if we get two big wins over Japan and the USA we will be in an incredibly strong place.

by TJ Tue 22 Sep 2015, 8:07 pm

Jones has every right to open his gob - and its his style anyway isn't it.

by tigertattie Tue 22 Sep 2015, 8:32 pm

Holy crap. Anyone watching STV's rugby special?

The comments from the panel are great but my god the production looks like it's being done by some primary kids with a camcorder

by **Notch** Tue 22 Sep 2015, 8:36 pm

123456789 wrote:He's going the wrong way about being the fan's favourite and a plucky underdog.

Nah I don't care about what he says. I want to see some more big scalps claimed by rank outsiders, obviously only in games not involving my own team, but still.

by Nematode Tue 22 Sep 2015, 8:40 pm

Anyone else reckon in the last week or so VC has looked a bit more confident in interviews? I'm hoping it's a sign that he's satisfied by the progress of the squad.

I don't really know what to make of Japan. SA are in a real, real low - players like Kirchner, Lambie, Pietersen, Du Preez, Mvovo, they are decent but not special. Kriel, De Allende, Le Roux, they can be special, but there doesn't seem to be that across the 31. Add in poor form in the run up, especially losing to Argentina and the manner of the loss to Australia, I don't really think Japan were facing the real Boks at all.

They do seem sharp though, Japan, but I don't think that if we play 100% that they will win.

by TheMildlyFranticLlama Tue 22 Sep 2015, 8:42 pm

Good overview of the Japan side here from Steve Borthwick:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/japan/11882435/Steve-Borthwicks-guide-to-the-Japan-Rugby-World-Cup-giantkillers.html?frame=3448971

by GLove39 Tue 22 Sep 2015, 11:54 pm

Bloody hell I'm excited! Like a kid on Christmas Eve I just can't sleep and really should. Being interviewed at 8 or there about a on BBC Gloucestershire radio if you fancy tuning into my dulcet tones!

Torn on how this'll go. 85/90% says win, good portion with bonus point. Little nagging bit fears Eddie Jones' comments about us wilting in the second half.

Either way, one things for sure. Pretty much all the locals are backing Japan! Time to urine on their parade Braveheart

by emack2 Wed 23 Sep 2015, 2:26 am

It would be VERY unwise to write off Whistle

any side on the results of one match,Japan may well
win the Group.The Boks can`t afford to lose again but even if they do could still progress
as France did in 2011.
After recent matches Teams dominated by the "Invincible Bok image"now feel they
have a chance against them.
Two things don`t like Millenium being played with roof closed and the short turnarounds
some teams being advantaged by this including England[turnaround] Whistle

by 123456789 Wed 23 Sep 2015, 3:11 am

Unfortunately due to a combination of a Christmas Eve type feeling and a sense of dread I get before almost all important Scotland games I cannot sleep. Part of me is relaxed; we of all people should know that one off victories mean little, we of course sandwiched a wooden spoon with a win over Australia in 2009 and a win over South Africa in 2010, we thrashed Argentina in the autumn and managed to collect the wooden spoon so let's not carried away with Japan, over the course of 80 minutes they haven't become the second or third best team in the world, and given up until Saturday (when we didn't play) we were receiving compliments about being the best performing home nation in the warm ups, I do feel quietly confident. The emotional strain of the last few days should hopefully mean that if we can perform a sucker punch early on with a couple of quick tries it even draw away slowly in the second half the emotional and physical strain of beating the Boks should show through. I'm not saying we can't lose to Japan today I've seen too many defeats against dreadful Italy teams to be that stupid but I do get the feeling that this Scotland team is different, players like Stuart Hogg, Mark Bennett and Finn Russell aren't just brave defenders or good prospects they are outstanding rugby players. We have three British Lions on the bench, all of which made the test squads, there is genuine quality in this Scotland side and we should gain a bonus point win, Japan caused an upset, the clue is in the name, (the rankings are also misleading given the doubling during the World Cup) I'm not saying we will win with a bonus point, not even that we will win but just that we should and it should be comfortable.

by jimbopip Wed 23 Sep 2015, 7:16 am

Numbers, Glove, I'm glad I wasn't the only insomniac. Laugh

I thought it was pre-interview nerves but you guys have reminded me of the real important stuff.

I'm concerned that we only have one 7 in the squad: Japan will look to flood the breakdowns and attack off turnover ball.
Harley-Barclay-Hardie might have been the ideal back row for this match.

Eddie Jones' comments about us not winning second halves has a lot of truth in it but BVC seems to have picked a bench which will significantly up the pace (front row excepted, but Batman and Angela can keep up the pressure in the scrum).

I can see Hogg receiving a lot of in-field kicks, so let's hope his ankle is 100%, and he makes the right decisions as to when to run and when to kick.

We should win..... but then again I should have been signed by Glasgow before now.

by **RDW** Wed 23 Sep 2015, 8:48 am

Game day!!

Scotland v Japan, 23 September - Page 6 Smiley20

Someone put up a great line on Facebook earlier –

Scotland V Japan tomorrow with essentially the whole world rooting for Japan.

Must be what it feels like to be an England supporter!

by GLove39 Wed 23 Sep 2015, 9:06 am

Quality post that!

Hope we preform better than I did on the radio. Although have told all local listeners that we'll win by 20...

Arghhhh, let's bloody do it. We are the parade pissers!

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