Paris Masters 2015

First topic message reminder :

Last Masters of the year with Novak winning 5 so far, Murray 2 and Fed 1. Will Paris return to its previous status as the "underdog" Masters or will 2013/14 champ Djokovic reign supreme again?

The draw is out:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/scores/current/paris/352/draws

Potential last 16:

Djokovic v Simon
Tsonga v Berdych
Wawrinka v Lopez
Anderson v Nadal
Ferrer v Cilic
Isner v Federer
Gasquet v Nishikori
Goffin v Murray

Big 5 starters:

Djokovic : Gabashvili or Bellucci
Wawrinka: Tomic or Fognini (ouch!)
Nadal: Rosol(!) or GGL
Federer: Seppi or Cuevas
Murray: Coric or Verdasco

R1 To Watch

Tomic v Fognini
Paire v Monfils
Vesely v Dolgopolov

Predictions

Q1: Djokovic - best player in the world by a distance. Monfils in his 2nd match could be tricky but should reach the QF with ease. Dismantled Tsonga with ease in Shanghai and always crushes Berdych. Should cruise to the SF.

Q2: Nadal - could well face Rosol again but have to feel he should handle him better with the confidence gained this week. Think he will have too much for Wawrinka in a potential QF.

Q3: Federer - great draw for Roger. Won't enjoy playing Isner but should get through. Only possible danger is Cilic and I doubt he will get past Ferrer. Federer v Ferrer the easiest call in tennis.

Q4: Murray - assuming he has some focus this week - and the number 2 ranking should mean that he does - should reach the QF easily. Given Kei's questionable current fitness have to pick him to also reach the SF.

Not picking beyond that until I have seen the relative form!

If Novak was at 10/10 in Asia, he's down to around 8/10 in Paris. Still very good but missing the relentlessness of the Beijing and Shanghai.

I haven't seen a great deal of Andy this week but it seems he's playing in a way that might trouble Novak. He's showing a bit more aggression and bit more variety than recent weeks.

Today feels too close to call with any confidence but I agree with the comments above that Murray's chances depend on his serve.

Agree. Andy is not Nadal or Federer, but hes been clearly the world no 2 so far though, he made the aus open final remember.

He will probably lose, but thats no excuse to attack his tennis, its not like anyone else has done any good against Novak this year on the whole.

Aut0Gr4ph wrote:If you reckon that was lame, I fear you have some seriously unrealistic expectations of what Andy is capable of as his standard level of play.

Yes, I do.

Andy's probably been about a 7 in the last couple of matches. Nowhere near the level he had in Shanghai pre Novak. Of course, he failed spectacularly there with his serve not functioning and the rest of his game also disintergrating. I think we know Novak will play well today. All rests on Murray as to whether we get a close match.

Born Slippy wrote:I don't expect him to beat Novak today - his serve isn't functioning well enough this week to give him a shot (I think there is a bit of back stiffness). However, I am hoping he does at least maintain the positive outlook and goes down swinging.

This is the lost-the-match-in-the-locker-room attitude. Is this the same back-stiffness when he beat Ferrer with 26 winners... ?

It is all right BS. Let us see what happens. We can analyse in 3+ hours again.

Come on Andy, sterilize him

temporary21 wrote:Agree. Andy is not Nadal or Federer, but hes been clearly the world no 2 so far though, he made the aus open final remember.

He will probably lose, but thats no excuse to attack his tennis, its not like anyone else has done any good against Novak this year on the whole.

T2, I have higher expectations of Murray to be added to the pantheon of 'greats' rather than be counted with Safin, Hewitt, etc....

Why is he not like another Federer or Nadal?

laverfan wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:I don't expect him to beat Novak today - his serve isn't functioning well enough this week to give him a shot (I think there is a bit of back stiffness). However, I am hoping he does at least maintain the positive outlook and goes down swinging.

This is the lost-the-match-in-the-locker-room attitude. Is this the same back-stiffness when he beat Ferrer with 26 winners... ?

It is all right BS. Let us see what happens. We can analyses in 3+ hours again.

Huh? Its been commonly reported that Andy had some back stiffness against Gasquet. It was better against Ferrer but his first serve was still noticeably not at his best. Against Ferrer that didn't matter as his overall game was too good but against Novak its crucial it functions. Perhaps it might be more helpful if you explained what was lame about the performance?

Anyway, Andy not starting well today. Early break incoming.

Come on people. lets all get behind Andy, no one cares for Djoko, not even the French.

Frustrating start for Andy but he looks to be working his way into it a bit more now. Should have made a couple of put aways last game and starting to get the rallies onto even terms.

Jahu, djokovic clearly got the bigger cheers and support walking out than Murray!

slasher, you are a traitor not supporting Andy and should be tried for treason, also you got a few hearing problems it seems

Andy doing all the right things but execution is slightly off which is all Novak needs. Hope he doesn't get put off the SV change-up.

Where is those BH crazy angles that Andy did a few months ago?

Wake up boy.

That was vintage Novak in that game, but Andy clings on. Can he wrest the momentum now? Starting to vary his tactics, but execution a little off so far.

Christ, that was an awful game. 4 really bad UEs under no pressure. First set clearly gone. Beginning to look as though Novak is very much in Andy's head as these are shots he would make all the time against other players.

Andy has not shown up at all.

Another free ticket for Djoko.

6 winners 19 ues. Caught in two minds over how to play. Now that's a lame display.

Very very comfortable first set for Novak. Neither of them looking superb but Novak by a large distance the better one.

Murray isn't the real Murray against Novak, he tries to beat him at his own game and doesn't do much of what got him to the final.

So after Fed and Nadal quit tennis, this is the quality of tennis we can expect in Finals.

Criminal.

CAS wrote:Murray isn't the real Murray against Novak, he tries to beat him at his own game and doesn't do much of what got him to the final.

Sadly so at the moment. Odd though as he wasn't like that in Oz, Miami or Canada. Finally some energy in his movement and fire in the groundstrokes and he breaks back to love.

Born Slippy wrote:6 winners 19 ues. Caught in two minds over how to play. Now that's a lame display.

I have a copyright to the phrase lame Murray. You should expect a summons to a judicial court (or a tennis court - your choice)  in Delaware, USoA, very soon.

Novak actually looks like he's ready to explode if Andy starts to make this a match, which he is just threatening to do.

Has Murray finally woken up?

6-19.
Thats only lame if hes missing easy ones.
How many times are you all going to attack Murray, and simply ignore how well Novak is playing? Lame suggests he isnt trying, its an insult
There isnt a player in history harder to hit a winner against than this guy, Murray playing the right way, but its extremely difficult.

temporary21 wrote:6-19.
Thats only lame if hes missing easy ones.
How many times are you all going to attack Murray, and simply ignore how well Novak is playing? Lame suggests he isnt trying, its an insult
There isnt a player in history harder to hit a winner against than this guy, Murray playing the right way, but its extremely difficult.

Well said.

It is far from beyond the realms of possibility that Novak will even surpass Roger's slam record when he retires - that is how damned good he is.

The match has gone pretty much as I thought it would and in the pattern of the big majority of matches between the two in the last couple of years.

Crap! A glimmer of hope, but quickly snuffed out by Djoko. Writing on the wall now.

temporary21 wrote:6-19.
Thats only lame if hes missing easy ones.
How many times are you all going to attack Murray, and simply ignore how well Novak is playing? Lame suggests he isnt trying, its an insult
There isnt a player in history harder to hit a winner against than this guy, Murray playing the right way, but its extremely difficult.

He was missing easy ones. Yes, he's playing Novak but they were shots he should have made and, had he made them, he would have won most of the points. Novak is playing very well in this set but, for him, he was actually a little iffy in the first. No way wiuld Andy playing at his normal level have dropped it 6-2.

What an awful smash that was.

There are no easy ones against Novak. Andy was hitting 2 winners a point in the first set, they just come back with Novak. Hence the bad looking ratio, but he was doing the right thing.

No matter anyway, rick-diculous returning is the major difference again today, seriously not even Agassi holds a candle to this

Born Slippy wrote:

temporary21 wrote:6-19.
Thats only lame if hes missing easy ones.
How many times are you all going to attack Murray, and simply ignore how well Novak is playing? Lame suggests he isnt trying, its an insult
There isnt a player in history harder to hit a winner against than this guy, Murray playing the right way, but its extremely difficult.

He was missing easy ones. Yes, he's playing Novak but they were shots he should have made and, had he made them, he would have won most of the points. Novak is playing very well in this set but, for him, he was actually a little iffy in the first. No way wiuld Andy playing at his normal level have dropped it 6-2.

What an awful smash that was.

Andy has always been a mental player. When he is mentally strong and on his game he is a match for anyone but when he isn't he is no match for the very best players. For years Andy's confidence got pummelled with defeat after defeat in slam finals - a cycle he struggled to break. Now he is in a similar cycle in matches against Federer and Djokovic which must play on his mind and sap his self-belief. That is my theory.

Tennis as we know, has ended.

temporary21 wrote:6-19. Thats only lame if hes missing easy ones.

How many times should I hit the FH or BH in the tram-lines to be considered a problem?

temporary21 wrote:How many times are you all going to attack Murray, and simply ignore how well Novak is playing? Lame suggests he isnt trying, its an insult. There isnt a player in history harder to hit a winner against than this guy, Murray playing the right way, but its extremely difficult.

Yet Wawrinka got a set of off Djokovic by getting Djokovic rattled and throwing balls around. The right way is a win, all other ways mean nothing. Difficult? Yes, no one said being #2 is easy.

This is not an attack on Murray, but to exhort someone who is capable of better performance, not performing. A 20-9 H2H (soon to be 21-9) .

Today...

BPs saved

Murray - 5/9
Djokovic - 0/1

Yesterday...

BPs Saved

Wawrinka - 9/14
Djokovic - 5/7

What do you think Murray can do win vs Djokovic?

Maybee, more than anything would you say Andys game has moved on in the lst 2 years? As in grown to be better? Hes gone a little sideways, partly not his fault through injury.
Novaks on the other hand, has flown forward, theres just a clear skill gap between the two now.

Well played Novak. He wins and gets a record sixth Masters title in one year. He really is racking up the records now.

Sorry. Double post.

I would suggest lf for your health, you stop pinning your hopes on Murray being able to blast through Novaks defenses with winner after winner, thats never how hes done it.

The two best players today at doing that, the Swiss twins, have had about the same luck as he has, one or two wins, but pummeled into oblivion when it matters...

Instead of us getting angry that Murray isnt playing as good as Novak, maybe just accept that he isnt nearly a good as Novak, hence why his best cant come out...

What can he do about that? Shore up the second serve, probably change up to some rope a dope tactics instead, almost certainly still wont work...

temporary21 wrote:Maybee, more than anything would you say Andys game has moved on in the lst 2 years? As in grown to be better? Hes gone a little sideways, partly not his fault through injury. Novaks on the other hand, has flown forward, theres just a clear skill gap between the two now.

I completely disagree. Do I need to drag Lendl days into this discussion? He has gone backwards, IMVHO. The brainy chess player with an immaculate BH and a lethal FH is gone. I now have a I-want-be-Nadal-then-i-want-to-be-Djokovic player shell left, with neither looking a possibility.

Do I need to drag Murray v Nadal circa Tokyo... ?

Ferrer at least knows his limitations.

Even Djoko does not celebrate anymore, kind of he has accepted he is the best.

Of course, I extend my hand to Novak, Jahus gonna have a stroke in the next few years at this rate.

Hes starting to look like a better overall indoor player than Roger... for christs sake

Six Masters titles in one season! First player to achieve that.

This has become an historically great season.

I'm surprised at how straight forward it was in the end. I think Murray definitely has some mental baggage with Novak now. Murray is better than his level against Novak would suggest.

I think we see him from different angles.
Lendl was what made him into a Novak, Rafa type player. He was barely ever expansive then, he basically became Lendl, and hes still at about that sort of level. You cant stand still nowadays though.

tempo, no stroke, i'm young, so i'll keep watching Youtube clips with Fed and Nadal

No questioning the quality of Novak's play, but I don't think that fully explains the recurring dip in Andy's form when they meet. There are definitely some mental gremlins at work. I think the biggest problem is Andy doesn't seem clear on the strategy he should be adopting and, against a tactical colossus like Novak, that kind of uncertainty is fatal. Novak, in contrast, looks so comfortable with his game plan. Of course there's a snowball effect where, as the match up becomes more lopsided, the more comfortable Novak becomes and the more angst ridden Andy becomes.

I know that Novak poses some incredibly difficult questions, but, somehow, Andy needs to come up with a convincing answer that he can believe in. Easier said than done, but, to try and get out of this rut, I think he needs to relax and experiment with some new patterns, accepting that they may not come off right away. Why not serve and volley and net rush? He's surely got nothing to lose and grinding from the baseline just isn't going to cut it.

An easy win for Novak who did not need to be at his best today. Somewhat disappointing for Andy that he was unable to make it closer against a slightly-below-par Novak. However, Andy has not been looking all that good since Canada, so perhaps a closer match was never in the cards.

HM Murdock wrote:Six Masters titles in one season! First player to achieve that.

This has become an historically great season.

I'm surprised at how straight forward it was in the end. I think Murray definitely has some mental baggage with Novak now. Murray is better than his level against Novak would suggest.

3 GS and 6 Masters - got to be in the mix for the greatest season since Laver. Win-loss ratio may not be quite as good as some others, but it's the big titles that really count. If he wins the 02, it's got to be the best.

temporary21 wrote:The two best players today at doing that, the Swiss twins, have had about the same luck as he has, one or two wins, but pummeled into oblivion when it matters...

I wonder if Stan - or Novak, for that matter - would agree.

With Novak's brilliance on return often grabbing the headlines, one development that's easy to overlook is the improvement on serve. Novak has always put Andy's serve under pressure, but, in the past, I think Andy was usually pretty confident he could return the favour. Novak's serve has become a real weapon, while, if anything, Andy's serve has gone backwards a bit. Taken together that really tips the balance to Novak.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

HM Murdock wrote:Six Masters titles in one season! First player to achieve that.

This has become an historically great season.

I'm surprised at how straight forward it was in the end. I think Murray definitely has some mental baggage with Novak now. Murray is better than his level against Novak would suggest.

3 GS and 6 Masters - got to be in the mix for the greatest season since Laver. Win-loss ratio may not be quite as good as some others, but it's the big titles that really count. If he wins the 02, it's got to be the best.  

It's far exceeded my expectations at the start of the year. Whatever happens in London, I now consider this season the equal of Fed's 2006 in terms of results.

If he wins London, I'd rate it a fraction higher.

Tough to compare directly the McEnroe and Connor's great seasons, but it's of worthy comparison.

Djoker has played average tennis throughout this tournament tbh. The match against Berdych was apparently the first time he won in his career without breaking his opponent's serve and he dropped a set to Big Stan (his first since the US final and only the 2nd since the Cincinnati final!!!!). Murray OTOH was in ominous form throughout the tournament yet is getting ripped apart by Nole here. Murray has had a very consistent year but I'm amused by people calling it his best ever. Of course, its a vast improvement on the disastrous 2014 but to me, he is playing like he was pre 2012 (except for the improved clay game). Good enough to consistently beat guys ranked below him, good enough to consistently make semis and finals but considerably short of the class to beat the best. Djokovic and a 34 year old Federer (against whom he actually had a favourable H2H record pre 2014) have wiped the floor with him this year. Expect a resurgent Nadal to get the better of him next year too. He just hasn't been the same player under pressure since Lendl left. The epic choke in this year's Australia Open final a good case in point