Paris Masters 2015

First topic message reminder :

Last Masters of the year with Novak winning 5 so far, Murray 2 and Fed 1. Will Paris return to its previous status as the "underdog" Masters or will 2013/14 champ Djokovic reign supreme again?

The draw is out:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/scores/current/paris/352/draws

Potential last 16:

Djokovic v Simon
Tsonga v Berdych
Wawrinka v Lopez
Anderson v Nadal
Ferrer v Cilic
Isner v Federer
Gasquet v Nishikori
Goffin v Murray

Big 5 starters:

Djokovic : Gabashvili or Bellucci
Wawrinka: Tomic or Fognini (ouch!)
Nadal: Rosol(!) or GGL
Federer: Seppi or Cuevas
Murray: Coric or Verdasco

R1 To Watch

Tomic v Fognini
Paire v Monfils
Vesely v Dolgopolov

Predictions

Q1: Djokovic - best player in the world by a distance. Monfils in his 2nd match could be tricky but should reach the QF with ease. Dismantled Tsonga with ease in Shanghai and always crushes Berdych. Should cruise to the SF.

Q2: Nadal - could well face Rosol again but have to feel he should handle him better with the confidence gained this week. Think he will have too much for Wawrinka in a potential QF.

Q3: Federer - great draw for Roger. Won't enjoy playing Isner but should get through. Only possible danger is Cilic and I doubt he will get past Ferrer. Federer v Ferrer the easiest call in tennis.

Q4: Murray - assuming he has some focus this week - and the number 2 ranking should mean that he does - should reach the QF easily. Given Kei's questionable current fitness have to pick him to also reach the SF.

Not picking beyond that until I have seen the relative form!

That Djokovic v Simon match was ridiculous.

Twelve breaks of serve and only two aces!

Sounds like a WTA match!

That might be the giveaway that the courts not very fast, a lot of breaks of serve, unless youre a huge server.

Its Fed next to mangle Isner

Isner takes the first set

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Isner takes the first set

I expect Federer's fitness to tell in the end.

and lucky to hold at the start. Needs to wake up from his afternoon nap

from 15-40 down Isner bangs down four aces to hold. Clutch serving

Feds not at his best, far from it, but fair play to Isner. who's playing really well...

brilliant from Feds to break, has he finally woken up?

You can see Isner wilting physically though

French crowd as usual being very fair and objective, clapping Isner's aces almost as much as they're cheering his DFs.

Then again I was in Bercy once when the crowd actually started booing Raonic after he'd hit a few aces in a row, admittedly against a Frenchman (Chardy).

Great win for Isner.
Not too fussed. Gives Feds no excuses to be fresh for WTFs.

Isner does it! plays a great TB with a couple of return-volleys and his big serve does the rest. Feds gone, which incidentally confirms Murray as second seed for the O2.

Good news for Murray - moreso for the AO than the O2 hopefully, in terms of being 2nd seed.

oh well. prob better for Fed's chances at WTF to lose this one. He wasn't going to win this tournament on this slow stuff anyway.  
Odd though he looked otherworldly yesterday and then flat today.

I guess the monster half of Djoko, Fed, Nadal is set at WTF then?

Credit to Isner a great win for him for Federer I don't think he'll be overly bothered as LuvSports says as he'll be fresher than most for London.

Some possible intriguing match-ups at the O2 now Fed has lost to Isner. Has Fed ever lost without losing serve before?

sirfredperry wrote:Has Fed ever lost without losing serve before?  

Karlovic, Cincinati, 2008. Yes I'm a bit sad in that I actually knew that without having to look it up. There may be other defeats, but none that I can remember offhand...

I know that one too. That was the loss that confirmed rafa as the new number 1

temporary21 wrote:I know that one too. That was the loss that confirmed rafa as the new number 1

True. It was also the tournament which saw Murray's first Masters win. He beat Karlovic in the SF 6-4 6-4 despite dropping serve twice - return, passing shots and especially lobs were out of the world that day - then edged Djokovic in the final (I think 7-6 7-6).

I still find Fed defeats hard to take. The one consolation of his retiring (and that still seems a way off) is that I won't have to worry about him any more !

Nadal also had to beat Lapentti to claim it I think.

Rafa deopping very short in that tb but mules it out to get a third set

Rafa wins the third set despite not serving well. He's playing intelligently to win, I love his fighting spirit and never give up attitude.

Nadal playing some brilliant stuff this evening, Anderson played very well and is becoming a very formidable player.

I think nadal could get back near his best next year, his movement is looking better and he is starting to grind out results. Some great aggressive shot making today too.

Didn't see Murray today but sounds like he is playing great stuff.

Djokovic clearly still playing great stuff too. All to play for and the world tour finals could be very interesting and exciting

Rafa's late-season form certainly augurs well for 2016. It's very likely he'll have a better European clay-court season next year than this and surely his poor Wimbledon form won't carry on.
It's by no means fanciful to think he could be in the top two this time next year.

Certainly there is room for a little more improvement but he has come back in leaps and bounds from a few months ago.. his confidence is oozing and that's a good sign.. he is willing to mix it up a little bit more and is more offensive, moving well ..lets hope he has no more injuries and I think we may be in for a good 2016.

sirfredperry wrote:I still find Fed defeats hard to take. The one consolation of his retiring (and that still seems a way off) is that I won't have to worry about him any more !

Very sad that one can't sit back and enjoy the tennis, the shot making, the drama, the mano a mano combat.  

Rather one frets away, worrying about the result when in a few days time there will be another result, to add to, over the years, thousands of results.  

It is this personal fear and worry that creates loathing and through loathing war of words between otherwise normal and genteel folk on the interweb of life.

It is sad that while Fed, Nads, Djokovic, Murray etc go about their existence they are oblivious to the maelstrom of emotionally wrecked lives they create in their wake.

The only solution is to ban tennis.  The interweb will be a safer, gentler place without it.  Now, let us all hold hands and sing kumbaya my lord, whilst roasting chestnuts on the fire.

Federer will be sorely disappointed to lose that match without losing serve, however.....Edberg lost two Major matches without losing his serve, but breaking his opponent.

VS Stich, Wimbledon 1991 and Aussie Open once as well. Hard to take but as we know it's about the BIG POINTS at the right time.

Federer has won more matches without him breaking his opponent serve than lost without his opponent breaking his serve. It's all part of the swings and roundabouts of the great unbrokeback mountain of the sky.

I've now seen at least 3-4 comments referring to Paris as a slow surface, and at least two of those using the word "mud".

Can't agree. Federer could barely get an Isner first serve back into play, the ball was obviously zipping off and cutting through nicely, especially on serve, even on second serve, the points were really short.

I guess it's one of the two fastest masters along with Cincinatti, and it is faster than every slam. It is a fast court by the standards of today, and perhaps medium by the standards of the last several decades. By no definition is it slow.

Perhaps some of you mean slow by the standards of indoor, or something like that? Or slower than previous years here? That could be true.

Or maybe it's Federer apologists that can't handle the fact that Djokovic is the favourite to win even on a fast court that favours serving and maybe even volleying and just looking to get the excuses/asterisks in early?

Its definitely slower than Wimbledon Bill which remains, despite comments to the contrary, a fast surface. I don't think it is as quick as Cincy either (a brief comparison of first serve points won showed me Cincy was at about 75% to Paris' 73.5%).

Paris isn't fast but it isn't slow either. Its a medium paced hard court (probably a slight step up in speed from the last two years). I actually think its a great surface to give all types of players a good shot.

Haddie-nuff wrote:Certainly there is room for a little more improvement but he has come back in leaps and bounds from a few months ago.. his confidence is oozing and that's a good sign.. he is willing to mix it up a little bit more and is more offensive, moving well ..lets hope he has no more injuries and I think we may be in for a good 2016.

Could be...it will be interesting to check at the end of the season but this could be one of his best ever seasons post US open. Ever since that Fognini loss he has been doing well.

He has been playing a lot of tournaments and as he starts to go a bit deeper into them he needs to keep an eye on his schedule give his age and injury record. Might want to think about taking February off?

Henman Bill wrote:I've now seen at least 3-4 comments referring to Paris as a slow surface, and at least two of those using the word "mud".

Can't agree. Federer could barely get an Isner first serve back into play, the ball was obviously zipping off and cutting through nicely, especially on serve, even on second serve, the points were really short.

I guess it's one of the two fastest masters along with Cincinatti, and it is faster than every slam. It is a fast court by the standards of today, and perhaps medium by the standards of the last several decades. By no definition is it slow.

Perhaps some of you mean slow by the standards of indoor, or something like that? Or slower than previous years here? That could be true.

Or maybe it's Federer apologists that can't handle the fact that Djokovic is the favourite to win even on a fast court that favours serving and maybe even volleying and just looking to get the excuses/asterisks in early?

Every player has said it's "slow" in their pressers. Nadal said it was slower than Basel and he actually preferred the slightly faster court, Fed said after his dominant 1st match that he was surprised he played that well because "I got used to the conditions of Basel last week, a bit more altitude for a quicker ball, faster court. Then I had the quick turnaround and my first practice here was rough getting used to it being so slow. So I am pleased I saw the ball so well tonight and adjusted quickly"

You take a shot at Federer fans, but it's hardly a Federer issue- everyone, all the commentators have mentioned it. the court used to be fast and has gotten slower each year until clearly slow this year. I hardly think any Federer fan does not recognize Djokovic is the favorite anywhere right now. Fed certainly keeps saying that.

With a guy like Isner- the slower courts actually help him... he himself has talked about this plenty. His serve is powerful enough he is going to hit through any court slow or not. It's the slower courts where he can get more time on his return game and in the rallies. He can set up his bigger back swing and guys like Fed can't take his time away as easily.

TRuffin wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:I've now seen at least 3-4 comments referring to Paris as a slow surface, and at least two of those using the word "mud".

Can't agree. Federer could barely get an Isner first serve back into play, the ball was obviously zipping off and cutting through nicely, especially on serve, even on second serve, the points were really short.

I guess it's one of the two fastest masters along with Cincinatti, and it is faster than every slam. It is a fast court by the standards of today, and perhaps medium by the standards of the last several decades. By no definition is it slow.

Perhaps some of you mean slow by the standards of indoor, or something like that? Or slower than previous years here? That could be true.

Or maybe it's Federer apologists that can't handle the fact that Djokovic is the favourite to win even on a fast court that favours serving and maybe even volleying and just looking to get the excuses/asterisks in early?

Every player has said it's "slow"  in their pressers.  Nadal said it was slower than Basel and he actually preferred the slightly faster court, Fed said after his dominant 1st match that he was surprised he played that well because "I got used to the conditions of Basel last week, a bit more altitude for a quicker ball, faster court. Then I had the quick turnaround and my first practice here was rough getting used to it being so slow. So I am pleased I saw the ball so well tonight and adjusted quickly"

You take a shot at Federer fans, but it's hardly a Federer issue- everyone, all the commentators have mentioned it.   the court used to be fast and has gotten slower each year until clearly slow this year.  I hardly think any Federer fan does not recognize Djokovic is the favorite anywhere right now.  Fed certainly keeps saying that.

With a guy like Isner- the slower courts actually help him... he himself has talked about this plenty. His serve is powerful enough he is going to hit through any court slow or not.  It's the slower courts where he can get more time on his return game and in the rallies. He can set up his bigger back swing and guys like Fed can't take his time away as easily.

Yeah Bill, I mean its very slow for what an indoor hc should be. Its no clay court, but it made Lopez look like Ferrer at one point...
The serve seems unaffected somewhat, but groundies on this surface are way too slow for indoors.

The top 4 seeds, incidently are locked in for the 02, novak, muzz, fed and stan.

The last 4 are also nearly locked in. Currently Rafas 5th, Berdy 6th, Ferrer 7th and over 400 behind Berdy and Nish definitely 8

Ferrer would need to basically win Paris to go past Berdy and/or Rafa, and Berd brain needs to beat Novak to have a chance to go past Rafa

Isner is not a good mover and likes to wind up on the forehand and is tall, all of that could work to his favour on a faster court with a higher bounce and more time to prepare.

On the other hand, the faster court helps his serve and forehand zoom through.

If you look at his career record, say on his wikipedia page, there isn't strong evidence that he favours faster or slower surfaces. His results are fairly similar across the board.

I guess with big servers who arent great baseliners in general, surface doesnt matter that much. Isner has a fast serve, but also a killer kicker for slower surfaces.

TRuffin wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:I've now seen at least 3-4 comments referring to Paris as a slow surface, and at least two of those using the word "mud".

Can't agree. Federer could barely get an Isner first serve back into play, the ball was obviously zipping off and cutting through nicely, especially on serve, even on second serve, the points were really short.

I guess it's one of the two fastest masters along with Cincinatti, and it is faster than every slam. It is a fast court by the standards of today, and perhaps medium by the standards of the last several decades. By no definition is it slow.

Perhaps some of you mean slow by the standards of indoor, or something like that? Or slower than previous years here? That could be true.

Or maybe it's Federer apologists that can't handle the fact that Djokovic is the favourite to win even on a fast court that favours serving and maybe even volleying and just looking to get the excuses/asterisks in early?

Every player has said it's "slow"  in their pressers.  Nadal said it was slower than Basel and he actually preferred the slightly faster court, Fed said after his dominant 1st match that he was surprised he played that well because "I got used to the conditions of Basel last week, a bit more altitude for a quicker ball, faster court. Then I had the quick turnaround and my first practice here was rough getting used to it being so slow. So I am pleased I saw the ball so well tonight and adjusted quickly"

You take a shot at Federer fans, but it's hardly a Federer issue- everyone, all the commentators have mentioned it.   the court used to be fast and has gotten slower each year until clearly slow this year.  I hardly think any Federer fan does not recognize Djokovic is the favorite anywhere right now.  Fed certainly keeps saying that.

With a guy like Isner- the slower courts actually help him... he himself has talked about this plenty. His serve is powerful enough he is going to hit through any court slow or not.  It's the slower courts where he can get more time on his return game and in the rallies. He can set up his bigger back swing and guys like Fed can't take his time away as easily.

Absolutely right, Truff. This  surface is more abrasive and slower against Basel. It is also right that  big John caused a bit confusion  by his huge serve, when he planted Fed about 20 aces. Even if  the  surface is slow it  is quite hard and it bounces higher. We can see that many players mishit returns and send  balls behind the BL or have even trouble to hit the ball on the second serve with a kick. When a surface is more abrasive the ball is swerved even more in the direction of the ball rotation and the kick is even higher than the surface is smooth.
Fed was out of his sorts due to his healthy problem yesterday and John played really focused on the game and his serve in particular, that made the feeling of faster surface than it really is.

Come on Berdy, bleed his other knee too

You have got to feel for berdych, he played a superb match. I have rarely seen a better performance from him and he loses in straight sets. Djokovic consistency is mind boggling, he just keeps producing the goods week in week out. His level this year has been remarkable

Congrats to Novak. He fought that tough match out as he played under a pressure of attacking the record. Winning 28 sets in a row is quite something. Berd played one of his best matches and moved really well. His move is best ever currently.
Now it is time for Stan

How lucky is this Monaco'vic dog

Nadal a break up.

Nice clay court match, oops, this is Paris HC. I forget.

Come on Stan, detoxify him.
Stan breaks back.

Stan blinked there. Now serving to stay in the set.
Nadal fighting like beavers as Kammy would say.

Stan the man

Good outing for Nadal.

Wawrinka had a good strategy tonight.

Stan detoxified the court really well. That is worthy win and important for him before WTF. This slower courts suits Stan well and tomorrow the semi with Nole will be a real fight. I expect three sets.
I wonder why Nadal maintains such a calamity on his head. He should cut out these rests and be above it, it is awful. Agassi should be his idol.
I really like Stan's attitude on the court, he makes an error but after that he plays an ultra winner with such a coolness. Greats are going to meet tomorrow

paulcz wrote: It is also right that  big John caused a bit confusion  by his huge serve, when he planted Fed about 20 aces. Even if  the  surface is slow it  is quite hard and it bounces higher.

I think you are on to something here.

I watched a couple more matches now and I think I was a bit hasty to judge the surface after one match and want to change my opinion a bit. It was just Isner's power and playing well. In the Djokovic-Berdych and Nadal-Warwinka matches it did look more medium paced than fast.

I think it's fair to say that compared to years ago at Paris, or compared to some other indoor tournaments, it is slow.

I still think it's probably faster than average for the tour as a whole as it is today.

Good match although just when I thought Stan was getting tight it was Rafa who hit that terrible smash error. He would have won the set and perhaps the match even if he made that shot, I think the score was about 5-2 in the TB or something around that at that point.

At least it happened in a not particularly important match for Rafa.

Yeah, pretty bad smash.  I think I have seen him miss more smashes these last couple of months than he missed his entire career prior to that (i.e., maybe three).

But I also agree that he will not be too stressed given it happened in a relatively minor tournament.  And he will remember from a couple of years ago that botched overheads are not always his enemy.