World Tour Finals (WTF!) 2015 - Day 4 (was Day2 and Day3!)

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MotD - Murray v Nadal.

Fed's last 5 match wins against Novak have been in straight sets.

Novak only managed 1 straight sets victory in his last 8 wins against Roger.

I hate seeing Nadal lose.

But yet I'm totally confused as to who I want to win this match.

Henman Bill wrote:Not surprise at the result, above average Federer beats below par Djokovic.

Why would you consider Djokovic, below par, especially after two breadsticks for Nishikori?

Unless Djokovic has a contact-lens malfunction, I expect him to make the final.

Would be surprised if Wawrinka lost to Ferrer today. Think he will win in two sets.

Murray v Nadal might hinge on how much Murray is willing to push himself especially if he loses the first set. He had a pretty routine win over Ferrer on Monday aided by Ferrer's service yips. However it looked like he was not totally focussed. Nadal played well (even allowing for Wawrinka's poor performance) and seemed to be totally focussed. Hoping for a good tight match but not sure it will be.

Henman Bill wrote:Not surprise at the result, above average Federer beats below par Djokovic. I said earlier that my theory of Federer winning the minor matches predicted a win for him in this one.

Key stats FEd converting B/P at 50% (4/8) , Fed hitting 67% of first serves, and Djokovic winning a mere 33% (6/18) of second serve points.

Fed quote: "My game is to mix it up, change up the spins. His game is to press you away."

At the moment Fed-Djok does look a likely final; however a Fed-Rafa semi might throw a spanner into that.

I think the key stat was that Novak in the second set hit 71% of first serves but only won 25% of the points behind them. Yikes! Something of an irony that he won 88% of second serve points in that set.

Strange display from Novak. Returned poorly throughout and the second set was the worst he has played in a long time - some of his shots were missing the tram-lines. Great display from Fed though.

Henman Bill wrote:Fed's last 5 match wins against Novak have been in straight sets.

Novak only managed 1 straight sets victory in his last 8 wins against Roger.

Federer can only win if Djokovic doesn't bounce - that is there must be no swing towards Djokovic. Federer has to keep Djokovic down from the beginning and not allow Djokovic any way back into the match. If there is a swing to Djokovic then Djokovic wins - once Djokovic gets into a match roll, he will roll over Federer. Federer is probably too old to reverse it once Djokovic gets on top in the match. Hence straight sets win in best of three. Much more difficult to prevent Djokovic reversing the match in a best of five setter.

If Nadal makes this a tough match then Murray has to consider the Davis Cup.

Calder106 wrote:Would be surprised if Wawrinka lost to Ferrer today. Think he will win in two sets.

Murray v Nadal might hinge on how much Murray is willing to push himself especially if he loses the first set. He had a pretty routine win over Ferrer on Monday aided by Ferrer's service yips. However it looked like he was not totally focussed. Nadal played well (even allowing for Wawrinka's poor performance) and seemed to be totally focussed. Hoping for a good tight match but not sure it will be.

Hmm, I can't see Stan beating Ferrer if he plays like he did on Monday. A lot depends on his mentality. Think Ferrer will take it in 3.

Agree about Murray-Nadal. Rafa looks like he is striking it well and I'm not sure Murray is going to be prepared to go to war to win any matches this week - Rafa to win in two closeish sets.

So, permutations in the Fed/Novak group are:

- Fed is through regardless;
- Fed wins the group unless he loses to Kei and Novak loses to Berdych

- Novak is through if he beats Berdych;
- Novak is also through if he loses to Berdych in 3 sets and Kei also loses;
- Novak can't top the group due to Fed h2h

- Kei is through if he beats Fed and Novak loses to Berdy - Kei will then top the group due to h2h versus Fed;
- Kei is out if he loses or if Novak beats Berdych.

- Berdych is through in 2nd if he beats Novak in straight sets and Kei loses;
- Any other scenario and Berdych goes out.

Just in case anyone is interested...

SINGLES PRIZE MONEY
ALTERNATE $95,000
PARTICIPATION FEE $167,000
ROUND-ROBIN MATCH WIN $167,000
SEMI-FINAL MATCH WIN $510,000
FINAL WIN $1,050,000
UNDEFEATED CHAMPION $2,228,000

Only the second match ive been able to watch properly, hopefully ill be allowed to enjo this one, its my favourite match up

I'm thinking neither Rafa or Murray would really want to win the group. Especially Rafa, must feel he has more chance of beating Federer than Djokovic in the semi finals?

Murray takes number two this year if he wins, which would be a great reward for a good year second really to the laser. If he goes out in a semi, oh well really its dc time.
Rafa may not want to win, but then I highly doubt throwing a match tactically is something he can do

not sure he would want to anyway..to win this match would be an enormous confidence booster bearing in mind Andy is on home turf he lost to roger on his. Sooner or later Rafa has to meet Novak or Roger anyways
He is playing some superb stuff at the moment..Andy will know he has been in a match win or lose

Come on Andy, cleanse his body with some scottish Highland spring water

Miles Maclagan on BBC text :-
Rafa doesn't mind losing the first set as long as it's brutal and takes the legs out of his opponent. He always wants to make it super-tough and these points are taking their toll.

Thoughts?

Total Garbage

Cant hurt. Bit like Jim courier, his advantage comes in the last two sets most of all.

No problem this time though, takes the first set and it was quite draining

I'm starting to think that Rafa might fill a gap on his CV this year...

temporary21 wrote:Cant hurt. Bit like Jim courier, his advantage comes in the last two sets most of all.

Lendl once said (maybe after he'd retired) that in BO5 he always knew he only had to win 1 of the first 3 sets - because his fitness would usually be enough to win him the last 2, if necessary.

Mhm to these guys the opponent is like a battery. If they lose two sets but drain their opponents power, they know the last three sets are a formality.
Jims problem was he couldnt even get one against Sampras, Rafas is that Novaks battery is near infinite.

Still if its given to you like that he wont need to.

I cant believe that this year above all years Rafa would chose/want to lose the first set in any match leave alone this Tournament against the #2 Its not in his nature to want to lose.

We are talking of a player who has had the worst year of his career playing a player who is having his best...save yourself Andy for the DC

Can we not appreciate that Rafa is finding his form

I really feel that if he stays fit, Nadal will rise to the top of the rankings again.

Andy being trashed by Nadal.

Wake up boy.

Dunn about that leader of dx, but top 3 or 2 is possible for sure.

Mano a mano always. Nadal looking into the glazed eyes of Murray, who has difficulty focusing, throws a tantum, punches his racquet, shouts obscenities to his coaching team and so forth. Not sure if that is true but that is how it normally works.

Haddie-nuff wrote:I cant believe that this year above all years Rafa would chose/want to lose the first set in any match leave alone this Tournament against the #2 Its not in his nature to want to lose.

We are talking of a player who has had the worst year of his career playing a player who is having his best...save yourself Andy for the DC

Can we not appreciate that Rafa is finding his form

There's a difference between choosing/wanting and not minding. He is indeed finding his form, and given that this year, when Andy has won the first set of any match, he has never gone on to lose the match, I reckon Rafa would have very keen not to lose the first set.

Well of one thing you are right if Andy spent more time concentrating on the job at hand rather that talking to his camp, thus distracting himself, he might have played a better match.

This year every set has been precious to Rafa bearing in mind his terrible loss to Foggy.. when he was two sets up... he cannot afford to gamble.

Well done Rafa
What was it this time, Andy choked, he tanked or simply did not play well.
Never mind you won any rate

Poor effort (?) from Murray. 43% first serves in and concentration completely lacking. Recipe for the hammering he took. Congratulations to Nadal though playing well and confidence rising all the time.

This could actually be a good match for Andy to lose given he could play Federer and he is the lesser evil of the 2.

Nicely dismantled from Nadal. Andy maybe after Fed, Nadal and Djoko, can have a go with Dimi and Kyrgios.

Great stuff from Nadal, forehand looked like the one of old

I wanted Murray to be here but if he was asked to choose between playing the WTF or the Davis Cup he wouldn't be here. After watching that I think it would have been better if Gasquet played instead, he was so lame out there, extremely disappointed after watching that but he has such a big task ahead of him I just don't think his mind is in it. Which is a shame as he looked good versus Ferrer so well played Rafa!

He beats stan though hes the number 2, which is a worthwhile return

If Federer and Nadal top their respective groups and Djokovic also qualifies, it will setup a Djokovic v Nadal SF. Wow!

When Nadal is fully fit he is just a much better player than Murray. Murray also finds it difficult to focus and stay in the moment.

CAS wrote: ... Murray ... he looked good versus Ferrer so well played Rafa!

Looking good against Ferrer and looking good against Rafa are propositions that are a world apart.

Just p1$$3d at Murray's lack of application.

I agree with LKv2, to have a DC-like World Group/Qualifying setup for WTF and let the better performers fight the consistent performers for places in SF/F.

Nore Staat wrote:

CAS wrote: ... Murray ... he looked good versus Ferrer so well played Rafa!

Looking good against Ferrer and looking good against Rafa are propositions that are a world apart.

I think it was pretty clear Murray wasn't the same level he was against Ferrer but my point is its not completely because Andy didn't seem interested

I think I may have to write a newspaper-like "Fedal: An Apology" along this lines of "we may have given the impression that Federer and Nadal were old news and surpassed entirely by Djokovic, and now Murray, but that we now realised that the truth was nothing of the sort. etc. etc.

With Federer (I think) already guaranteed to win his group (even if he loses in straights to Nish and Djokovic wins in two over Berdych, Federer beats Noval on h2h), and Nadal now most likely to top his group it's looking like Djokovic v Nadal in one semi and Federer v Murray / Stan in the other.

I think Stans match with Ferrer is now irrelevant; if he beats Murray he qualifies no matter what (unless Ferrer beats Nadal, which is never going to happen).

EDIT: No, Stan needs to get 1 set and then it's all down to Stan / Andy

In the Davis Cup Final I am not convinced Andy Murray will last three best of five set matches on consecutive days on clay.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Miles Maclagan on BBC text :-
Rafa doesn't mind losing the first set as long as it's brutal and takes the legs out of his opponent. He always wants to make it super-tough and these points are taking their toll.

Thoughts?

Miles Maclagan is Tenez

He's right though, t'was ever thus.

bogbrush wrote:I am going to give up predicting after getting it so wrong last night.

Murray in 2 sets; one close, one not.


See what I did there?

What's your prediction for tonight BB ? I'll go for the opposite.

bogbrush wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Miles Maclagan on BBC text :-
Rafa doesn't mind losing the first set as long as it's brutal and takes the legs out of his opponent. He always wants to make it super-tough and these points are taking their toll.

Thoughts?

Miles Maclagan is Tenez

He's right though, t'was ever thus.

Even more reason to believe its total garbage.

laverfan wrote:Just p1$$3d at Murray's lack of application.

I agree with LKv2, to have a DC-like World Group/Qualifying setup for WTF and let the better performers fight the consistent performers for places in SF/F.

A bit of a shame I guess. But like last night, a competitive first set but the loser of it didn't really get up for the fight in the second.

Is it a surprise though? Every wtf has 2 or 3 guys that are ready and fully focused, with the rest for whatever reason just making up the numbers.

Wawrinka hasn't played Ferrer since April 2014 which Wawrinka won. Ferrer leads their head to heads 6 - 4. But Wawrinka's form has significantly improved these last two years whilst Ferrer's form has tailed off a little. Hence expect Wawrinka to beat Ferrer.