2016 Predictions

With 2015 concluded (bar the tiebreak tens and the IPTL), its time to predict what will happen next year. Will it be all change or will it be more of the same? Predict the top 5, slam winners, Davis Cup and Olympic gold winner:

Top 5:

1. Djokovic - will require something astonishing to de-throne him, given his total domination. Two more slams and more Masters will see him number 1 again.

2. Murray - expect him to be stronger and more of a challenge to Novak next year. Looked like he was getting closer in the middle of the year but DC focus appeared to zone him out after US Open.

3. Nadal - signs of improvement and good chance to start the year better. I just have a feeling he may grab the French again.

4. Federer - Surely he has to age at some stage? Still playing unbelievable tennis but focus likely to be heavily based on the Winbledon, Olympic, US stretch. May not put full effort into the clay.

5. Berdych - This is the tough one. I would like to say Kei but I don't think he will be fit enough. I don't see the likes to Thiem or Kyrgios quite making it this year. Berdych therefore gets the nod for consistency.

Tournaments:

AO - Djokovic def Murray
FO - Nadal def Djokovic
Wim - Murray def Fed
US - Djokovic def Nadal

OG - Djokovic

Davis Cup - France

1) Djoko; 2) Nadal; 3) Murray; 4) Stan; 5) Fed

AO: Stan
FO: Nadal
WIM: Murray
USO: Djoko

Olympics: Djoko
WTF: Nadal (finally)
DAVIS CUP: France

1 - Novak. He just looks superb, can't see that changing. I see him finally completing the set this year.

2 - Rafa. Really positive signs at the end of the year, think he'll emerge as Novak's main challenger again.

3 - Murray. Last year was much better, but he's still not doing it in the big matches. Hasn't approached them right for me. DC win may help.

4 - Stan. I love how he plays in the big tournaments. Best player to watch in big matches in my opinion.

5 - Roger. Focus on the olympics may result in a slight regression in other tournaments, particularly around mid season. Still can't see evidence of physical degradation though which is remarkable.

AO - Novak beats Stan
F - Novak beats Rafa
W - Novak beats Andy
US - Rafa beats Novak

Top 5:
1) Djokovic
2) Murray
3) Nadal
4) Federer
5) Wawrinka

AO: Djokovic
FO: Djokovic
WO: Djokovic
US: Djokovic

Djokovic has to be favourite for each individual slam but is unlikely to win all four.  I think Murray will get a post Davis Cup boost.  Nadal is not going to get significantly better on the hard courts, is unlikely to get to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and has to manage his body to prevent another physical breakdown.  Federer will be a year older but using his new tactics to hang in to the top five.  Of the rest only Wawrinka seems to have the consistency, firepower and knowledge to make a dent.

PS: Hmm forgot about the Olympics that could throw a spanner in the works.  I recommend Djokovic and Murray completely ignore the tournament ... but maybe Djokovic will want to get a gold medal for Serbia.  If Djokovic puts in significant effort and preparation for the Olympics then maybe he is going to do less well in the slams - winning maybe two rather than three / four. He may even injure himself.

Djokovic
Murray
Nadal
Wawrinka
Federer

Grand slams
Djokovic
Djokovic
Djokovic
Djokovic


Olympic
Djokovic

Masters
Djokovic unless he feels he cant be bothered

WTF
Djokovic


Greatest season of all time (until he's 2017 season). Bookmark it

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Federer
5. Wawrinka

I think Rafa will win the French and even if he doesn't I can see Djoko not winning it. Reckon the Serb will win the AO again and at least one more of the Slams.
Not sure what to think about the Olympics. Fed would love a gold but I don't think Andy or Rafa are going to be too bothered.

Born Slippy wrote:With 2015 concluded (bar the tiebreak tens and the IPTL), its time to predict what will happen next year. Will it be all change or will it be more of the same? Predict the top 5, slam winners, Davis Cup and Olympic gold winner:

1 Djokovic
2 Murray
3 Nadal
4 Federer
5 Nishikori

I think Djokovic to win 2 slams, Murray to win 1, and ? to win 1 is a good bet. Just hard to see how to share them out. I think I'll have a bit better idea after the AO.

AO - Djokovic - see a good fight between Rafa, Andy and Novak and hard to call, but have to favour Novak.
FO - Djokovic - peak Rafa stopped him winning it before, but he may have passed his peak.
Wimbledon - Murray - I still think he is joint grass best with Djokovic, or not far off, even though the last 2 Wimbledons have not shown this.
US Open -  Federer - just a random punt almost went for Djokovic but don't want to predict a 3-slam year, could as easily be Rafa, Murray or Nishikori or a surprise winner. I am assuming he benefits from at least one of the other big 4 suffering an injury, surprise defeat, personal issue etc.

Olympics I think Djokovic, he will be focused on it.

Davis Cup - France

Nore Staat wrote:
AO: Djokovic
FO: Djokovic
WO: Djokovic
US: Djokovic

Djokovic has to be favourite for each individual slam but is unlikely to win all four.

This is exactly my problem with predicting 2016 slams. Djokovic ahead of anyone else for each individual slam, but I do not expect him to win 4 (or even 3).

I believe that 2016 will be the year when age starts showing in Nole's and Andy's results.  I do not see any challengers that can displace them, but I expect they will have more random losses.  I also think we will see with more clarity that Fed's ability to hide his age is ultimately a bluff.

Top 5:
1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Wawrinka
5. Dimitrov

Slams:
Novak - 2 slams, Andy - 1 slam, someone "unknown" (say Nishi, but could be anyone) - 1 slam.  I would not be surprised if two of the slams went outside the traditional "Big 4".  I can more easily see Novak winning one slam only than repeating 3 slams.

That said, as far as favorites for each individual slams go, Novak is the #1 favorite in all of them, so I suppose I should tip him to win each one.  But in order to match my count predictions, I will apportion slams like this:

AO - Novak
FO - Novak
W - Andy
USO - Nishi

If Nadal is not going to win any slam, how is he going to be no.2??

He's not going to win many Masters for sure as Novak is the king of the Masters. So, is Nadal going to be the runner up everywhere in order to build up his ranking points to be no.2 in the rankings??

I see him at least winning a slam in order to be no.2 ahead of Murray. If not, then Murray should rank ahead of him if Murray is to win a slam. Murray is not bad at the Masters too.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:If Nadal is not going to win any slam, how is he going to be no.2??

Maybe like Murray is #2 this year? ...or like Fed was #2 last year?

Look, obviously there is plenty of room for my predictions to be wrong.  Maybe Nadal will win a slam instead of Andy or Novak, or maybe Andy will finish at #2 instead of Rafa, or maybe something still different will happen.  Still, I do not think my scenario is all that impossible.  I expect Andy to be less consistent next year than he was this year.  I also expect Rafa to be significantly better than he was this year.  I expect him to do very well during the clay court season and reasonably well on HC.  Quite possibly enough to collect points for #2, but I still think that when it comes to crunch time at RG, Novak would beat him, and similarly I expect Rafa will not quite make it to the titles at other slams.

Of course, I do not have a crystal ball and could be wrong.  It is not totally inconceivable that Rafa could come to the AO in great form, win there, then ride the wave to another RG title, and who knows what thereafter...

...but I hope not

I think Novak wins three slams again. He could win all four. I just don't see right the formula for any of the top guys to beat his total package game. It's on his racquet if he is fit and confident his game wins out over anyone. That being said as others have mentioned it's hard not to have a letdown or catch an opponent playing the match of his life in some slam.

I see Nadal or Murray finishing in top two. Federer will finish fourth and Stan will probably finish number five. Honestly anything less than two slams for Nole will be a disappointment. I don't foresee aging will be an issue next year. As Novak is still one of the youngest guys in the top twenty. I mean is he the only guy whose going to age what about the other top guys who are older than him. He is way ahead of the pack right now they will inevitably catch him but no one has convinced me that they are ready next year. Nadal will be there again for RG and poses the biggest threat along with Murray at USO and wimby and Stan will be a threat as well.

SB, Murray was no.2 in 2015 because he did well at the Masters. Nadal isnt like Murray, he'll do well at the slams more than at the Masters, that's his style when healthy. He did win at least a slam each year from 2011-2014 even when he had his injury breaks.

If he still plays like his 2015 then he wont even make it to top 3; if he's to be in top 2, look for him to win at least a slam, unless of course no one else except Novak is winning the slams next year.

Top 5:
Djokovic
Nadal
Murray
Federer
Wawrinka

Was going to put Federer 3rd, but think he might play less next year than this, so moved him below Murray.

Slams:
AO - Djokovic
French - Nadal
Wimb - Cilic
US - Nishikori

Davis Cup - France

Olympic Gold - Djokovic

summerblues wrote:5. Dimitrov

I kind of randomly added Grigor here and that made me think I have not heard much about him lately, so decided to google news on him to see if anything hopeful might transpire.  I noticed with some concern that most news was about him and his new girlfriend.  Not being sufficiently literate in my pop culture, I had to google who this Nicole Scherzinger was.

Ok, maybe someone else at #5.

1) Djokovic
2) Murray
3) Wawrinka
4) Federer
5) Nadal

AO - Djokovic
FO - Djokovic
W - Murray
USO - Djokovic

Masters - Djokovic/Murray/Nadal

Davis Cup - Italy

Olympic Gold - Federer

summerblues wrote:

summerblues wrote:5. Dimitrov

I kind of randomly added Grigor here and that made me think I have not heard much about him lately, so decided to google news on him to see if anything hopeful might transpire.  I noticed with some concern that most news was about him and his new girlfriend.  Not being sufficiently literate in my pop culture, I had to google who this Nicole Scherzinger was.

Ok, maybe someone else at #5.

Well she never seemed to do Lewis Hamilton's career any harm!

If Dimi is dating the lovely Nicole Sch.. then it's unlikely he'll have much energy left for the tennis.

sirfredperry wrote:If Dimi is dating the lovely Nicole Sch.. then it's unlikely he'll have much energy left for the tennis.

I'll wait for Jahu to confirm!

I doubt Grigor's love life will significantly affect his tennis. He seems to have a decent work ethic. The problem as I see it is two-fold. First, his backhand is weak for a top player and secondly he doesn't seem to quite have what it takes to close out really top matches. At 25, I doubt that will change.

As I said last year, I expected him to drop this year but to get back to the low end of the top 10 over the next year or so. I think that is likely to be his limit though.

legendkillarV2 wrote:

sirfredperry wrote:If Dimi is dating the lovely Nicole Sch.. then it's unlikely he'll have much energy left for the tennis.

I'll wait for Jahu to confirm!

Jahu broke up with Nicole?

laverfan wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

sirfredperry wrote:If Dimi is dating the lovely Nicole Sch.. then it's unlikely he'll have much energy left for the tennis.

I'll wait for Jahu to confirm!

Jahu broke up with Nicole?

 So my prediction that Dimi is just Sharapovas wet toy and will impact his game, obviously came true as Dimi is playing worst then 2 years ago, of coruse no energy left after sleeping with her.

LF, I think Nicole has been "broken" to pieces already, every month a new rider riding her

I've no idea. I could form a reasonable argument for Novak to win the lot. Andy to win three. Andy to win none!!

I do think that the French will not be won by Novak or Rafa. I now think it's Andy's best chance a longer with Wimby

Roger to win no slams or Olympic gold

Banbrotam - Twould take a brave man to predict a French win in 2016 for anyone other than Djoko or Rafa.
Mind you, such a prediction this time last year would have been spot on. I think RG is going to continue to be a big hurdle for Djoko. At least his continuing failure to win it makes things at the top more interesting.

1. Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Federer
4. Nishikori
5. Nadal

AO - Djokovic
FO - Djokovic
W - Federer
US - Murray

Think Djokovic will drop off after he wins the French.

Judging by what happened in the last couple of years not just the last one

1. Nadal or Djokovic
2. Nadal or Djokovic
3. Federer
4 - 10 A big gap between 3 and 4 but not much between 4-10. I reckon there may be a 1st time slam winner next year so they will be in one of the higher positions but the rest will made up of the usual suspects who are already in the top 20 now. The 1st time slam winner could of course come from this group too. Not sure about either Wawrinka or Murray. Can't see Wawrinka getting another slam and his ranking in the last two years has benefited from his slam points. Murray slipped last year and looked poor at the WTF and I can see him slipping again next year but not sure how far.  

AO Nadal
FO 1st time slam winner
Wimbledon Djokovic
US Nadal

Haha I don't have a crystal ball but can still speculate. Nadal is getting back to his best and played very well at the WTF. Could even play better on outdoor hard than clay. He's perhaps the freshest of the top players and could get his first slam in a year and a half at the AO. This is about the longest he's played for some time without an injury break and if he is successful at the beginning of the year wouldn't be surprised if he had to miss some of 2016. If so that would leave an opening at the FO. Don't see Djokovic, Federer, Wawrinka or Murray winning the French so that's the way in for a surprise winner. It would be funny if Djokovic who is good on clay and relatively poor on grass got another Wimbledon title and life can sometimes be funny so he may just get a 4th title there. If Nadal misses the middle of the year then he would be at an advantage in the US Open because the other players will have worn themselves out playing in Rio. Outdoor hard suits Nadal too.

Good classic Hawkeye post that. Usually, the WTF is an exhibition type tournament but when Murray doesn't perform there then its evidence that he will have a poor 2016. Despite the fact he currently has double the points of the WN7 he will be close in ranking points to the WN10 next year.

As a Rafa fan, after the year he has had, I would have thought there might be some understanding of the difficulty in returning from injury. However, Murray's poor 2014 (when he did more or less as well as Rafa this year) is instead put down to him simply slipping.

Well I admire HE's optimism. The guy who didn't even reach the semi-finals of any of the Slams this year is going to win 2 next year??

That is some margin of improvement and heavily relies on the top 3 not having any kind of form!

It's a sure outside bet.

In answer to Born Slippy and legendkillarV2. Did you not read that I based my predictions on the last two years? Many of the predictions here seem to be that 2016 will be a repeat of 2015 and that Djokovic will maintain his form. But a player repeating a previous years form is rare and Djokovic definitely didn't do so after 2011 when he had a comparable good year. I also think it's more likely that a player who won a slam just a year and a half ago has a good chance next year. Especially a player with the track record of Nadal as he is has already won 14 and has also proved that he can recover form. IMO more likely than a 34/35 year old who hasn't won a slam since 2012 and a player who has only won 2 the last being in 2013. My guess about Murray's ranking is based on his performance over two years and not just the WTF. He also has stuggled to get any wins over Djokovic, Federer, Wawrinka and Nadal during this period.

Of course it's just a guess and Tomic could win the lot

So on the basis the last 2 years being 2014 and 2015.

Slam Count:

Djokovic: 4
Wawrinka: 2
Cillic: 1
Nadal: 1

And Nadal is going to win the 2 HC Slams??

^ I used the last two years to help guess the ranking but obviously not just that to guess slam winners. Although every year since 2011 has had someone winning a first or second slam. In fact 2009 did too and actually so did 2008. That's one of the reasons I guess there may be a surprise winner and I gave my reasons as to why I thought it could be at the FO.

You don't think Nadal is good on outdoor hard? How many other players have completed the American Masters US Open sweep?

A bit random to give Nadal the US Open and not the French, but who knows? Stranger things have happened. Despite this year, I still think if you had to choose a French Open winner, and you had to place a bet at even odds on either a) Nadal or Djokovic to win it, or b) any of the other 126 players to win it, I would still go Nadal or Djokovic.

Well I suppose Nadal is the third best outdoor hard player of the last 10 years. That's not too shabby. Still, brave to pick anyone but Novak to win both. Anyway, who cares, one year from now we will be looking at this article, some of us will be entirely wrong, some of us will be partly wrong....so may as well by wrong with style I suppose.

This is some of the 606v2 predictions for 2013

https://www.606v2.com/t39290-from-2012-into-2013-where-do-we-stand

Henman Bill. I presume it's me that your picking out as being "wrong with style" but how do you know who will be wrong and who will be the most way out wrong? None of the predictions for rankings and slam winners are wrong now

hawkeye wrote:^ I used the last two years to help guess the ranking but obviously not just that to guess slam winners. Although every year since 2011 has had someone winning a first or second slam. In fact 2009 did too and actually so did 2008. That's one of the reasons I guess there may be a surprise winner and I gave my reasons as to why I thought it could be at the FO.

You don't think Nadal is good on outdoor hard? How many other players have completed the American Masters US Open sweep?

Ok let me ask a more pertinent question.

How many players have done the AO and USO double in the same year?

Fed. Novak only last year, unlikely that he'll repeat. If Nadal wins the AO then he has a good chance of winning the USO too because he's better at the USO than the AO.

I think Nadal may not do well at the Olympics which I read the surface there resembles the Cincy surface, and I feel he should skip Cincy next year and rest up for the USO, for he like Fed intends to play doubles and mixed doubles too at the Olympics.

If both Fed and Novak want an Olympic gold its in 2016 so they may go all out to get one, it can be in singles or doubles and I feel they will go further than Nadal at the Olympics.

I think it depends on who's fresher by the USO; of course Murray and players like Cilic or Stan may also win it.

^ My speculation was based on the possibility that Nadal may miss some tournaments during the middle of the year. Nadal has played a full year this year and I can't see him completing a full schedule next year as it's rare for him to play just one full year. I think the only years that Nadal has played a full schedule was 2007, 2011 and this year. If that is the case then he has never played two back to back full years.

Missing the middle of the year would leave him fresh at the US.

Haha! I am convincing myself anyway

I dont think Nadal missed anything in 2010 except pulling out of Paris Masters, but, I feel thats more to rest his troubled shoulders and prepared for the WTF. I would consider that as playing for a full year. He also didnt play at Paris Masters in 2011.

Those troublesome seasons are 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2012 and 2014. 2006 and 2013 were comeback seasons after long injury breaks but he didnt go on injury breaks during those two seasons.

So its 2004/2005 out with injuries; 2006/2007 no injury; 2008/2009 out with injuries; 2010/2011 no injury; so its two years back to back with injuries followed by two years without injury and the pattern continued for eight years. Thereafter its one year with injury followed by one without, from 2012 to 2015.

I hope 2016 he breaks this latest pattern!

I guess fairy tales can happen.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:I dont think Nadal missed anything in 2010 except pulling out of Paris Masters, but, I feel thats more to rest his troubled shoulders and prepared for the WTF. I would consider that as playing for a full year. He also didnt play at Paris Masters in 2011.  

Those troublesome seasons are 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2012 and 2014.  2006 and 2013 were comeback seasons after long injury breaks but he didnt go on injury breaks during those two seasons.

So its 2004/2005 out with injuries; 2006/2007 no injury; 2008/2009 out with injuries; 2010/2011 no injury; so its two years back to back with injuries followed by two years without injury and the pattern continued for eight years.  Thereafter its one year with injury followed by one without, from 2012 to 2015.  

I hope 2016 he breaks this latest pattern!

Nadal did have injury breaks in 2006, 2010 and 2013.

2005 - Didn't play after Madrid indoor (this has now been replaced by Shanghai) Missed Paris and WTF. It was discovered he had a congenital foot problem and he was told that would end his tennis career. Luckily it didn't but the foot problem is thought to have caused his knee problems

2006 - Didn't play until February missing AO

2007 - No injury breaks

2008 - Retired injured in Paris 1000. Missed WTF and DC final

2009 - Knee problems after losing in RG. Missed Wimbledon

2010 - Retired injured in AO. Didn't play until March

2011 - No injury breaks

2012 - Didn't play after Wimbledon. Missed US Open, 4 Masters and WTF

2013 - Didn't play until February. Missed AO

2014 - Didn't play after Wimbledon until China Open. Then played Shanghai and Basil against advice from ATP doctors as suffering from appendicitis. Didn't play after Basil. Missing US, 3 Masters and WTF

2015 - No injury breaks

I certainly hope that 2016 breaks the pattern but it would be like a fairy tail if it did.

In 2011 he injured his thigh during AO vs Ferrer. He didnt play any event during Feb that year. In 2007 he had knee tendonitis during USO. He knees were tapped up while playing against Ferrer there, that match was played right into the early hours of the morning close to 2am. He fell and had difficulty getting up as his knees were hurting. I remember that match even after so long! He still came back to play at Madrid so in that sense there's no injury break.

In fact 2015 was the best year where injury was concerned yet he had his worst results since 2004.

Hopefully he's as healthy and injury free as his 2015 in 2016 but results wise, back to his winning ways again!

Belovedluckyboy wrote:In 2011 he injured his thigh during AO vs Ferrer.  He didnt play any event during Feb that year.  In 2007 he had knee tendonitis during USO.  He knees were tapped up while playing against Ferrer there, that match was played right into the early hours of the morning close to 2am. He fell and had difficulty getting up as his knees were hurting. I remember that match even after so long! He still came back to play at Madrid so in that sense there's no injury break.

Also in 2009 Nadal "played on one leg" during the Rotterdam final. He did still get his usual results going into Madrid so it's often forgotten that there was much speculation that he was not playing well. In the interviews he gave during this period he didn't sound happy and indicated that all was not well. Nadal beat Djokovic in the Madrid semi but it was obvious that all was not well and then lost meekly to Federer the next day. In retrospect his loss at RG shouldn't have been such a shock.

In 2014 he had a back injury during the AO final. Not an injury break as such but it did deny him a chance to compete fully in a slam final.

Yes I remember that US Match with Ferrer. The difference between watching Rafa play when fit and watching him play when injured is stark. As a fan it's horrible to watch him playing injured and I wish he wouldn't do it.

I still expect Djokovic to be pretty dominant in 2016. He appears to be managing his schedule well and has taken a good break after the WTF. Doesn't play again until Doha. Was meant to play some part in the IPTL but pulled out to rest. Most of the other top players have played at some stage in it during December. So Djokovic would appear to be in a good place to start the new season fresh. The others are going to have to raise their levels if they want to beat him rather than him dropping away.

Never been one for predictions..especially in tennis
Will Nadal win another slam.??? Not sure that even he is prepared to predict that .but one thing I think I can safely say it wont be for want of trying
http://www.ibtimes.com/rafael-nadal-news-can-rafa-win-grand-slam-titles-again-2016-2232502

HAPPY NEW YEAR RAFA

AO novak
French Nadal
Wimbledon Murray
Usa open novak

AO Azarenka
FO serena
Wimbledon serena
Uso serena

OG Azarenka
OG novak

Now we've reached the end of 2016 (save for the DC final) it's fun to look back on the above posts to see how we thought this year would go.
  Most expected Djoko to do well and clearly no one foresaw what effect injuries were going to have on Fed and Rafa. One or two were spot on with Murray winning Wimbledon.
  Twould be fun to start a 2017 predictions thread, although existing topics cover that to some extent.

I think HB and SB get best marks for slam predictions. Both got the first three winners right and went for non Djokray winners of the US. Guest82 gets massive plus points though for predicting Novak would fall away after winning the first two slams. 

No one went for Andy at YE1 and Fed/Rafa's absence from the top 5 ruined all our picks.

As for worst prediction: HE predicting that Murray would be closer to number 10 than number 1 gets my vote!

Thanks for reminding us about this. It's all a good laugh anyway.

Will keep an eye out for the 2017 predictions thread - been a long time since the men's game had so much uncertainty:
1 - Now Andy has reached #1, will he become a dominant player (2 or 3 slams and a good haul of other tournaments), or is he likely to fade away as age catches up with him as well?
2 - Is Novak's decline since RG the beginning of the end, or a temporary blip that he will turn round now that he has been passed for the #1 spot (if it is a motivational issue, this could kick him back into a more focussed state)
3 - What are Federer and Nadal going to be like on their returns from extended lay-offs?
4 - Are the likes of Raonic and Nishikori ready to step up and challenge (building on some good performances this year), or will it be younger guys (Thiem / Pouille / Kyrgios) that rise to the top?
5 - Is there someone (Zverev?) amongst the real youngsters who will make a big jump to top 5?
6 - Are any others of the over 30s going to fade from the top 10 in the way that Ferrer has and Berdych looked to be on the edge of doing at times this year?

It is of course worth remembering that Cilic is the youngest player to have won a GS and an MS1000 event (he's 5 days younger than Del Potro, both are 28), so it isn't as though the younger guys have any experience of winning big tournaments - surely this can't continue much longer - at least this year has (finally) seen someone younger than Djokovic winning an MS 1000 title.