European Knockout stages - who's going through?

First topic message reminder :

After five rounds, the qualifiers for knockout stages have three teams nominated - Leicester, Saracens and Racing 92.

Currently, as it stands, the order of teams involved in qualification is:

1. Saracens 24
2. Leicester 23
3. Racing    22
4. Ospreys 16 +12
5. Toulon 16 +0
6.  Wasps 15 +73
7. Clermont 14 +30
8. Stade Français 14 +53
9. Saints 14 -11
10. Ulster 13 +7
11. Exeter 11 -19
12. Bordeaux Begles 11 -23

Ulster play Oyonnax first and need a TBP plus as many points as possible to build their low PD.
Toulouse play Saracens. Nothing in it for Toulouse. Saracens will want the TBP ideally to secure top spot and a potential home semi.
Bath then host Toulon, whilst Wasps host Leinster. Toulon need a TBP and a good improvement in their points difference to set a target for Ospreys in their match the following day against Exeter to get the final home quarter.
Leinster could do Ulster a favour if they can continue their winning form and beat Wasps in Coventry - not likely though.
Racing don't have much in the game against Glasgow in Rugby Park as they can't drop lower than 3rd spot.
Saints need to get the full five points against Scarlets and hope other results go their way.
Leicester will know the results of the Racing and Saracens games before they take the pitch. They could drop a place to third but would still have home advantage. State Francais need the win to ensure they get a best runner-up spot.
Exeter host Ospreys with the Welsh club looking to top their group and win a potential home semi-final.
Clermont, at the same time, will hope Exeter do them a favour and they can win at home against UBB.
Lots to play for still.

It's not more variety though, it's the same as the other league vs league fixtures. you can see them each year in the relevant league.

LordDowlais wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:And?

That means more variety. More interesting.

It's not really more variety though as the Pro12 sides play each other as often as the Aviva sides play each other.

LordDowlais wrote:Anyway I reckon if Ospreys win one game out of their remaining two they should be through.

But they wont because Bordeaux will play a weak team against Exeter and this will make the English side going through. What a great tournament this is.

That of course didn't happen before, and Exeter are obviously a below par team anyway.

So is it back to if your not winning, the competition isn't fair...

nathan wrote:So is it back to if your not winning, the competition isn't fair...

It's not so much about the fairness of it all for me, it is more about the lies and false promises we were fed by the PRL, that grates me. Oh and the fact I find it boring and mundane now as well.

VinceWLB wrote:But they wont because Bordeaux will play a weak team against Exeter and this will make the English side going through. What a great tournament this is.

Thats another lie we were peddled, everyone would take the competition more serious, no weakened teams. FFS what a load of bollox.

It's all on Ulster to stop it from being the first quarter-final lineup since 1998 with no Irish sides, I found out today!

Can we do it? I'll tell you on Monday.

beshocked wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:Apples and oranges.

I will take this tournament seriously again once there is a Salary Cap and that all teams are on equal footing.

There isn't a salary cap in Ireland..... Irish teams  have had an unfair advantage for years.


One reason the Irish clubs are struggling is because now Irish clubs actually have to qualify for the top tier European competition instead of being handed qualifications spots on a platter. This means they have to put more resources into the Pro12. They can no longer treat the Pro12 with contempt.

Firstly how is it unfair not having a salary cap?

Second the Irish teams have had restrictions placed on NIQ signings which are a balancing act in themselves

LordDowlais wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:But they wont because Bordeaux will play a weak team against Exeter and this will make the English side going through. What a great tournament this is.

Thats another lie we were peddled, everyone would take the competition more serious, no weakened teams. FFS what a load of bollox.

How did you think it would go? Why would teams risk players on dead rubbers?

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:But they wont because Bordeaux will play a weak team against Exeter and this will make the English side going through. What a great tournament this is.

Thats another lie we were peddled, everyone would take the competition more serious, no weakened teams. FFS what a load of bollox.

How did you think it would go? Why would teams risk players on dead rubbers?

Just pointing out another lie from that corrupt organisation that is the PRL.

LordDowlais wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:But they wont because Bordeaux will play a weak team against Exeter and this will make the English side going through. What a great tournament this is.

Thats another lie we were peddled, everyone would take the competition more serious, no weakened teams. FFS what a load of bollox.

How did you think it would go? Why would teams risk players on dead rubbers?

Just pointing out another lie from that corrupt organisation that is the PRL.

That's not at all libellous

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:But they wont because Bordeaux will play a weak team against Exeter and this will make the English side going through. What a great tournament this is.

Thats another lie we were peddled, everyone would take the competition more serious, no weakened teams. FFS what a load of bollox.

How did you think it would go? Why would teams risk players on dead rubbers?

Just pointing out another lie from that corrupt organisation that is the PRL.

That's not at all libellous

How is it libellous ?

LordDowlais wrote:

wayne wrote:With the injury news coming out of our camp I expect us to lose both I'm sorry to say.

That would be the most likely outcome wayne. Are you going Friday night ?

Lord, I was really rough (nasty cough, phlegm) last Friday, but I was still there, I'll be there Friday dim problem

LordDowlais wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:But they wont because Bordeaux will play a weak team against Exeter and this will make the English side going through. What a great tournament this is.

Thats another lie we were peddled, everyone would take the competition more serious, no weakened teams. FFS what a load of bollox.

How did you think it would go? Why would teams risk players on dead rubbers?

Just pointing out another lie from that corrupt organisation that is the PRL.

That's not at all libellous

How is it libellous ?

You can't see how calling someone corrupt isn't libellous?

marty2086 wrote:
You can't see how calling someone corrupt isn't libellous?

You only have to see what has gone on with the salary cap to come to that conclusion, it is almost FIFA esq.

LordDowlais wrote:

marty2086 wrote:
You can't see how calling someone corrupt isn't libellous?

You only have to see what has gone on with the salary cap to come to that conclusion, it is almost FIFA esq.

That's the problem we don't actually know whats gone on, its conjecture

A number of posts here I totally agree with to name a few- LD, Aukster and ...Cyril!...

LordDowlais wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:But they wont because Bordeaux will play a weak team against Exeter and this will make the English side going through. What a great tournament this is.

Thats another lie we were peddled, everyone would take the competition more serious, no weakened teams. FFS what a load of bollox.

we don't know that yet and it's Bordeaux policy to always rotate a bit all the time this year (including in the T14) so next weekend team might include the likes of AAC, who knows - and in any case this would have been worst 3-4 years ago with the likes of Castres who didn't even put up a fight after the first round. however the calendar (ospreys playing Clermont home first and Exeter away last) could well suit Exeter.
all I heard last week was how Glasgow should rest players vs Racing to concentrate for the next game etc and you giving me some sh*t because a team already out of the comp might consider giving game time to some squad players in round 5 ?!

In the new competition the sensible thing for clubs with no chance of qualifying is to field weakened teams. In the old competition the positioning in the group counted towards their overall European seeding so there was still some incentive to get results.

The only saving grace for some sides is that they might want to put on a show at home, so Bordeaux say might put a fairly strong team out against Exeter, but it would be stupid for them to do so in the final round away to Clermont. Same logic would apply to Oyonnax, Leinster and Munster.

The Great Aukster wrote:In the new competition the sensible thing for clubs with no chance of qualifying is to field weakened teams. In the old competition the positioning in the group counted towards their overall European seeding so there was still some incentive to get results.

The only saving grace for some sides is that they might want to put on a show at home, so Bordeaux say might put a fairly strong team out against Exeter, but it would be stupid for them to do so in the final round away to Clermont. Same logic would apply to Oyonnax, Leinster and Munster

Are you implying that Munster have a strong team right now?

Sure it's only a blip Billy!

Here's my prediction for the quarters:
Racing 92
Saracens
Clermont
Leicester
Toulon
Wasps
Northampton
Stade Français

Exclusively Franglo - Racing 92 will win with Carter reminding everyone of the proper world order.

Ireland was always more far more passionate about the Heineken Cup than any other country. Whenever there was a big European game coming even the casual fan would be talking about it in Belfast/Dublin/Limerick.

In any other European country you simply wouldn't get this level of interest outside the Six Nations. In Wales there's always been an ambivalence towards the regions and a greater focus on the national team. In England and France the respective leagues had at least equal status with the Heineken.

It's no surprise that the buzz around the tournament is gone now the provinces are struggling.

theslosty wrote:

It's no surprise that the buzz (In Ireland) around the tournament is gone now the provinces are struggling.

Slight edit, hope you don't mind

Pretty sure that there is a buzz in England and France about the tournament.

I said it on another thread but my interest in the tournament has waned due to Munster not performing, not because I feel the tournament is bad.

I can't agree Billy. There is absolutely no chance French teams view the tournament in the same light the provinces do. Their away results and half-empty stadia tell you as much.

The English teams have begun to take the tournament more seriously but the fans don't have a love for the tournament the way Irish supporters did. Having lived in both England and Ireland there is a much greater interest from the average Joe in Ireland. The Aviva takes at least equal priority in England as shown by Quins filling Twickenham for one of their recent league games. When Irish teams made the knockout stages supporters travelled in huge numbers whereas the last couple of finals have struggled to sell tickets.

In Ireland if a province had a big European game coming up the bars would be bunged and there would be a real excitement around the city. For many fans there'd be a greater buzz around the HCup than the 6N. You can't say the same for Saracens for instance, most Londoners would be oblivious even if they reached the final. The competition with Premier League football is a factor but it is just obvious to me.

I would love to agree with you losty, I really would but having travelled to many games my experience was not of only us Irish bringing the atmosphere but that of a combined atmosphere.

I make no excuses for myself when I say that I have sour grapes that Munster have under performed and that is the reason why I am not enjoying this tournament.

I'd like to see the Ospreys make the quarters, hell when was the last time a Welsh team made it through? It used to be standard practice to have a couple of teams through, these days only the Ospreys get close, always winning their home games and losing all their away ones

Shifty wrote:I'd like to see the Ospreys make the quarters, hell when was the last time a Welsh team made it through?  It used to be standard practice to have a couple of teams through, these days only the Ospreys get close, always winning their home games and losing all their away ones

2011/2012 season and believe it or not it was the Blues that made it to the quarters that year.

2008/2009 season was the last time a Region got to the Semis and again it was the Blues, lost in the penalty shoot out.

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:But they wont because Bordeaux will play a weak team against Exeter and this will make the English side going through. What a great tournament this is.

Thats another lie we were peddled, everyone would take the competition more serious, no weakened teams. FFS what a load of bollox.

How did you think it would go? Why would teams risk players on dead rubbers?

Just pointing out another lie from that corrupt organisation that is the PRL.

That's not at all libellous

How is it libellous ?

You can't see how calling someone corrupt isn't libellous?

You cannot libel an organisation.

I'm kinda hoping that a number of English teams make it through.

Teams like Wasps, Exeter would be good to see going through.

It would be great for the comp if Toulon didn't make it through.

rodders wrote:A number of posts here I totally agree with to name a few- LD, Aukster and ...Cyril!...

rodders, I know you probably feel ok, but it's probably better to check with a medical professional

TJ wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:But they wont because Bordeaux will play a weak team against Exeter and this will make the English side going through. What a great tournament this is.

Thats another lie we were peddled, everyone would take the competition more serious, no weakened teams. FFS what a load of bollox.

How did you think it would go? Why would teams risk players on dead rubbers?

Just pointing out another lie from that corrupt organisation that is the PRL.

That's not at all libellous

How is it libellous ?

You can't see how calling someone corrupt isn't libellous?

You cannot libel an organisation.  

Yes you can.
http://www.slatergordon.co.uk/media-libel-and-privacy/faqs/

Q. Who Can Sue for Defamation Libel or Slander?
A. Any legal entity can sue for defamation including individuals, companies and partnerships.

theslosty wrote:
The English teams have begun to take the tournament more seriously but the fans don't have a love for the tournament the way Irish supporters did. Having lived in both England and Ireland there is a much greater interest from the average Joe in Ireland. The Aviva takes at least equal priority in England as shown by Quins filling Twickenham for one of their recent league games. When Irish teams made the knockout stages supporters travelled in huge numbers whereas the last couple of finals have struggled to sell tickets.

I would not read too much into special games at Twickenham over the festive period. Lots of people are just desperate to escape the mother in law.

rodders wrote:

Shifty wrote:Nothing has really changed between either tournament, and to be fair what the English and French wanted was a fair representation between 3 different leagues.   

Actually quite a lot changed.

The ERC rankings used previous results and rewarded consistency in Europe over a number of seasons - so team who previously had done better received higher ranking and more favorable pools. Now this is based on league position - whereas the old rankings favoured teams like Munster, Leinster, Toulouse now the top league teams are benefiting, which tend to be those with big squads and financial resources.

The money previously was distributed evenly among the unions - now the pro12 are getting proportionally a lot less of the pot, which is stretching the financial gap between the AP/Top 14 and pro12.

There are issues specific to the Irish provinces but as a general this new competition certainly is more weighted towards teams with more money than the previous one, and as the rewards are also bigger and proportionally distributed to such teams too then a vicious circle has been created - similar to soccer in the 1990s, that won't be stopped now but will accelerate in coming seasons.

Not for the Welsh teams ,were still crap

rodders wrote:
The ERC rankings used previous results and rewarded consistency in Europe over a number of seasons - so team who previously had done better received higher ranking and more favorable pools. Now this is based on league position - whereas the old rankings favoured teams like Munster, Leinster, Toulouse now the top league teams are benefiting, which tend to be those with big squads and financial resources.

The old system favoured teams who qualified each year which for some Pro12 teams was either guaranteed or virtually guaranteed.

Surely the Pro12 has top league teams just like AP and Top 14?  Munster, Leinster and Ulster have bigger budgets than any of their Pro12 rivals so what is stopping them being at the top of the league.

rodders wrote:
The money previously was distributed evenly among the unions - now the pro12 are getting proportionally a lot less of the pot, which is stretching the financial gap between the AP/Top 14 and pro12.

The Pro12 are now getting the same as AP and Top14 with the guarantee that they cannot get less than previously if the tournament is financially unsuccessful. So the Pro12 now get the same as the other leagues or possibly better. Unfair?

rodders wrote:
There are issues specific to the Irish provinces but as a general this new competition certainly is more weighted towards teams with more money than the previous one, and as the rewards are also bigger and proportionally distributed to such teams too then a vicious circle has been created - similar to soccer in the 1990s, that won't be stopped now but will accelerate in coming seasons.

How is it more weighted to teams with money than the previous tournament?

The truth is that Munster and Leinster are just not as good teams as they were a few years ago. That happens. Leicester used to be just about the strongest team in Europe. They went downhill and are now starting to recover. That is the nature of sport.

The Irish dominated for a few seasons. Then the French. I hope we English get a turn someday. If we do I have no doubt things will change again.

Exiledinborders wrote:

rodders wrote:
There are issues specific to the Irish provinces but as a general this new competition certainly is more weighted towards teams with more money than the previous one, and as the rewards are also bigger and proportionally distributed to such teams too then a vicious circle has been created - similar to soccer in the 1990s, that won't be stopped now but will accelerate in coming seasons.

How is it more weighted to teams with money than the previous tournament?

The truth is that Munster and Leinster are just not as good teams as they were a few years ago. That happens. Leicester used to be just about the strongest team in Europe. They went downhill and are now starting to recover. That is the nature of sport.

The Irish dominated for a few seasons. Then the French. I hope we English get a turn someday. If we do I have no doubt things will change again.

Its more weighted because Clermont, Saracens and Toulon are among, if not, the biggest spenders and because of the success that is bringing them the prize money they are gaining is boosting not only their bank balances but the income of their players. Mourad admitted that some of his players can double their money through bonuses based on success

Exiledinborders wrote:
The truth is that Munster and Leinster are just not as good teams as they were a few years ago. That happens. Leicester used to be just about the strongest team in Europe. They went downhill and are now starting to recover. That is the nature of sport.

The Irish dominated for a few seasons. Then the French. I hope we English get a turn someday. If we do I have no doubt things will change again.

Well that is all true - that is why I say there are specific issues within the Irish set up and also specific issues at each province which go a long way to explain why both have struggled in the last few seasons in Europe - and these aren't down to any change in format to either Europe or the pro12 as suggested by Beshocked. In a nutshell neither team is as good as they were and other teams have got stronger - which is cyclical and Leicester is a good example, as is Wasps.

That being all said this can't be seen in total isolation to what is happening in the wider European game - the growing gap in budgets and rapidly increasing salaries and the impact this is having on club rugby, and the new format is a contributor to this.

Of course Saracens are playing to the salary cap so that can't be happening. Cough, cough.

marty2086 wrote:

Exiledinborders wrote:

rodders wrote:
There are issues specific to the Irish provinces but as a general this new competition certainly is more weighted towards teams with more money than the previous one, and as the rewards are also bigger and proportionally distributed to such teams too then a vicious circle has been created - similar to soccer in the 1990s, that won't be stopped now but will accelerate in coming seasons.

How is it more weighted to teams with money than the previous tournament?

The truth is that Munster and Leinster are just not as good teams as they were a few years ago. That happens. Leicester used to be just about the strongest team in Europe. They went downhill and are now starting to recover. That is the nature of sport.

The Irish dominated for a few seasons. Then the French. I hope we English get a turn someday. If we do I have no doubt things will change again.

Its more weighted because Clermont, Saracens and Toulon are among, if not, the biggest spenders and because of the success that is bringing them the prize money they are gaining is boosting not only their bank balances but the income of their players. Mourad admitted that some of his players can double their money through bonuses based on success

What prize money?

The following article with Tony Rowe of Exeter indicates there is no prize money. I must say I was surprised when I saw Rodders talk of prize money because everything I had seen previously indicated that the money was being distributed evenly between the three leagues.

http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Financial-rewards-slim-pickings-rugby-8217-s/story-28174688-detail/story.html

True the top teams play more matches and therefore get more gate receipts but that was true in the old HC. Where is this new advantage for French and English clubs?

To be fair, Irish fans have a cheek when they criticise others for the wage bills, when they are at the same of the English, and closer to the French when you consider the outside payments for players like Johnny Sexton, anyway it has nowt to do with this thread, so perhaps we should not be talking about it.

I reckon if Ospreys can beat Clermont they will progress with a losing bonus point against Exeter.

Exiled he doesn't actually mention prize money, twice they mention financial gains from progressing to the knockouts but don't clarify it.

Under what they are stating you get the same for losing all 6 pool games as you do for winning the thing

LordDowlais wrote:To be fair, Irish fans have a cheek when they criticise others for the wage bills, when they are at the same of the English, and closer to the French when you consider the outside payments for players like Johnny Sexton, anyway it has nowt to do with this thread, so perhaps we should not be talking about it.

I reckon if Ospreys can beat Clermont they will progress with a losing bonus point against Exeter.

And yet you did?

Just for my understanding does the money paid by the WRU to players on the central contracts (or direct contracts is it, not sure on exact wording) count in peoples thoughts on wage bills?

No 7&1/2 wrote:Just for my understanding does the money paid by the WRU to players on the central contracts (or direct contracts is it, not sure on exact wording) count in peoples thoughts on wage bills?

Yes.

marty2086 wrote:And yet you did?

Just pointing out that the Irish should not be-moan what the English and French pay their players when they themselves have always paid the their own players the same as them. But I will leave it there now as I do not want to de-rial the topic.

Cheers, just wanted to make sure the full wages paid to the player are included not just what the clubs paid direct from their own accounts.

LordDowlais wrote:

marty2086 wrote:And yet you did?

Just pointing out that the Irish should not be-moan what the English and French pay their players when they themselves have always paid the their own players the same as them. But I will leave it there now as I do not want to de-rial the topic.

Reverting to type there LD, chuck out a quip and then if anyone bites its on them

Considering the French, especially the bigger clubs have a bigger wage bill than the English clubs either the Irish have similar wages bills to the French or the English but how can they have the same as both?

as Geoff has stated on these boards before, and he is better informed than most, the Irish aim to keep pace with the top level of the AP. Most of whom have struggled to keep pace with Saracens, who are alleged to have broken the cap and at lease entered a grey area when it comes to taxes too, its worth mentioning them which is not moaning contrary to your description.

marty2086 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

marty2086 wrote:And yet you did?

Just pointing out that the Irish should not be-moan what the English and French pay their players when they themselves have always paid the their own players the same as them. But I will leave it there now as I do not want to de-rial the topic.

Reverting to type there LD, chuck out a quip and then if anyone bites its on them

Considering the French, especially the bigger clubs have a bigger wage bill than the English clubs either the Irish have similar wages bills to the French or the English but how can they have the same as both?

as Geoff has stated on these boards before, and he is better informed than most, the Irish aim to keep pace with the top level of the AP. Most of whom have struggled to keep pace with Saracens, who are alleged to have broken the cap and at lease entered a grey area when it comes to taxes too, its worth mentioning them which is not moaning contrary to your description.

Ah so I misread this post from right at the start of this thread then

VinceWLB wrote:Apples and oranges.

I will take this tournament seriously again once there is a Salary Cap and that all teams are on equal footing.

marty2086 wrote:Reverting to type there LD, chuck out a quip and then if anyone bites its on them

Yeah that's me.

I do not care if I do not get any response, I am just pointing out the hypocrisy.

Exiledinborders wrote:The truth is that Munster and Leinster are just not as good teams as they were a few years ago. That happens. Leicester used to be just about the strongest team in Europe. They went downhill and are now starting to recover. That is the nature of sport.

Toulon were nowhere in Europe until they bought success by recruiting the best players. All the French sides have tried to followed suit creating a bidding war. The economic climate has changed with player contracts spiraling upward in recent years meaning that money is indeed now the determining factor on how competitive a team will be.

The Pro12 sides can no longer compete for the best players, either because they can't afford to or additionally in Ireland's case because they have a quota on imports. The Pro12 teams don't cover massive populations that someone might want to sell broadband into, and so generate big sponsorship. In short the market demand has risen for players but the means to pay for that has not and will not keep pace in a financially challenged league like the Pro12.

The gulf will keep increasing until the ERC Cup is won by a French team every year. From a Pro12 perspective the future is bleak unless the top teams can convince the top French and English clubs to sign up to a European Super League, while their credibility and history still has some market appeal.