AO draw

Projected QF:

Djokovic-Nishikori
Federer-Berdych
Wawrinka-Nadal
Murray-Ferrer

Djokovic opens against Chung
Federer may play Dolgo in Rd2 and Dimitrov in Rd3
Nadal opens against Verdasco,
Murray could play Tomic in Rd4

At first glance, the draw looks relatively balanced to me.  Murray's draw not too bad.

I love it the first slam signaling the start of the year, I had been going into withdrawals. I like to see a balanced draw and not be looking at one guy getting cupcakes (ie Federer for most of the new millennium) and one guy getting shafted. All those quarters look questionable to me from the perspective of the favorite they look like scare matches, which is what you want.

Okay Ferrer v. Murray looks like a nice one for Andy, the other three are all possibly tough matches.

Edmund vs Goffin potentially.

Hewitt vs Duckworth then Ferrer potentially. Ouch.

Great draw for Andy. Zverev is a dangerous R1 as you never know when a guy like that will suddenly step up. However, if he gets through that he should make the semis.

Born Slippy wrote:Great draw for Andy. Zverev is a dangerous R1 as you never know when a guy like that will suddenly step up. However, if he gets through that he should make the semis.

You are disregarding the biggest obstacle BS.

If Kim goes into labour then Andy is out of there.

Most balanced draw for some time.

Objectively, Djokovic is the favourite but my prediction is Murray.

I think he'll make the final, and I just don't think he can play 5 finals at the same event and lose them all! One has to go his way eventually.

Djokovic;
Rd 1 - Chung
Rd 2 - Dodig
Rd 3 - Seppi
Rd 4 - Simon/Karlovic
QF - Tsonga/Nishikori
SF - Federer
F - Murray/Wawrinka/Nadal

Federer:
Rd 1 - Basilashvili
Rd 2 - Dolgopolov
Rd 3 - Dimitrov
Rd 4 - Goffin/Thiem
QF - Berdych/Cilic/Kyrgios
SF - Djokovic
F - Murray/Wawrinka/Nadal


Nadal:
Rd 1 - Verdasco
Rd 2 - Becker/Sela
Rd 3 - Chardy/Gulbis
Rd 4 - Anderson/Monfils
QF - Wawrinka/Raonic
SF - Murray
F - Djokovic/Federer

Wawrinka:
Rd 1 - Tursunov
Rd 2 - Qualifier
Rd 3 - Sock
Rd 4 - Raonic
QF - Nadal
SF - Murray
F - Djokovic/Federer


Murray:
Rd 1 - Zverev
Rd 2 - Mannarino/Groth
Rd 3 - Joao Sousa
Rd 4 - Tomic/Fognini
QF - Ferrer/Isner
SF - Wawrinka/Nadal
F - Djokovic/Federer

These could well be wrong. Please correct if they are.

Murray defintely has the easiest of the draws. Djokovic & Nadal seems ok. Federer & Wawrinka have nightmares.

CaledonianCraig wrote:If Kim goes into labour then Andy is out of there.

I agree but I also think that he might be mentally distracted because of the imminence of the birth of his first baby .. Oz is a long flight home.. I hope Kim and his expectant son or daughter is not in too much of a hurry..Good Luck with both Andy

Murray's draw does look good with Nadal and Wawrinka prone to fluctuating form, which equally makes it tough.

Both Djokovic and Murray have tasty openers. Hoping the youngsters can give a good account of themselves.

Djoko has it so tough till the final

Cheung (#51), Dodig (#90), Seppi (#29), Simon (#15), Tsonga(#10) or Nishikori (#7), Federer (#3).

well as a Murray fan I'll take that. OK might be a tester first up, but his path to the semis features relatively few threats. Ferrer is the easiest of the QF opponents, and Feds landing in Djokovic's half suits him. Of course Kim is the great unknown, but hopefully a nice easy draw will mean relatively low levels of stress for her

Djokovic has a pretty untroubled path to the QFs, albeit will be interesting to see how Cheung goes. Then it gets a bit trickier.

Feds has some interesting looking matches in rounds 2 and 3, and then Berdych in the QFs who's cause him problems before. That could also be Kyrigios, if he gets his head screwed on properly.

From a Brit perspective, Edmund has drawn a very winnable first round, then potentially Goffin in round 2, which could be interesting.

legendkillarV2 wrote:Murray's draw does look good with Nadal and Wawrinka prone to fluctuating form, which equally makes it tough.

Both Djokovic and Murray have tasty openers. Hoping the youngsters can give a good account of themselves.

Yeah anyone would be happy with Ferrer as their quarter final. Think this is the year he drops away...lost in the 1st round last week and lost to Jack Sock today.

Isner doesn't have a great record of making it far in the slams either. Considering he never breaks serve he ends up playing long matches, which means he suffers over BO5. No one else worrying in that quarter either - F Lopez, Janowicz, Bedene (!), Steve Johnson, Lleyton Hewitt(!)

Nadal has an interesting draw. On paper up to the QFs they're all people he should beat, but if slightly off form there's plenty of the big hitter types in there to trouble him: Verdasco, Chardy/Gulbis, Anderson/Monfils.

Did anyone see any of Murray's Hopman Cup matches by the way? Just interested if there were any new strategies in play?

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Nadal has an interesting draw. On paper up to the QFs they're all people he should beat, but if slightly off form there's plenty of the big hitter types in there to trouble him: Verdasco, Chardy/Gulbis, Anderson/Monfils.

I think the likes of Verdasco/Gulbis/Chardy/Anderson can all take a set off him. Just don't see them beating him at the moment, unless he is seriously off his game.

I think Wawrinka is the biggest threat to him, but I see it unfolding like this - Sock beats Stan in rd 3, Raonic beats Sock in rd 4, Rafa beats Raonic in QF, Murray beats Rafa in SF.

On paper not bad for Andy. He should be reaching the semis and then he'll have a tough task to reach the final. But in all honesty, the only draw I was looking at is Novak's. He's the man everyone is struggling to beat. I was hoping he'd get Nish which he has, and I was desperately hoping he'd get Stan who always plays great in Melbourne.

I'm not confident Andy can beat Novak in these conditions. He can stay with him shot for shot for 2+ hours but ultimately gets outlasted as history tells us. So for him to win it, in my opinion, others need to take chunks out of him.

Not sure I see enough chunk takers in Novak's draw.

I think Rafa has a couple of potential banana skins but albeit he may not be vintage Rafa we know him to be a different animal over five sets so Im keeping my options open

I think Novak will be happy to have ended up in Fed's half rather than Stan's half.

On slower surfaces such as these, I think the Fed match up is relatively comfortable for Novak, especially over bo5.

Stan can be problematic on a slower surface and has caused Novak difficulty for the last 3 years.

A QF vs Nishikori is potentially difficult but it has been quite some time since we saw the best of Kei.

I think there's a good chance that it may be Tsonga who makes it to the QF, rather than Nishi.

socal1976 wrote:I love it the first slam signaling the start of the year, I had been going into withdrawals. I like to see a balanced draw and not be looking at one guy getting cupcakes (ie Federer for most of the new millennium) and one guy getting shafted. All those quarters look questionable to me from the perspective of the favorite they look like scare matches, which is what you want.

All draws would be cupcake for 25 year old Federer

HM Murdock wrote:I think Novak will be happy to have ended up in Fed's half rather than Stan's half.

On slower surfaces such as these, I think the Fed match up is relatively comfortable for Novak, especially over bo5.

Stan can be problematic on a slower surface and has caused Novak difficulty for the last 3 years.

A QF vs Nishikori is potentially difficult but it has been quite some time since we saw the best of Kei.

I think there's a good chance that it may be Tsonga who makes it to the QF, rather than Nishi.

I agree - think we will see Tsonga in the quarter final against Djokovic.

Dolgopolov is somewhat tricky for R2, Dolgopolov yes he hasn't really pushed on in recent years, but perhaps still a cut above a typical R2 opponent, and an eratic player as well, which could mean anything. Very entertaining draw for Federer being against young players that are nice to watch.

Yes, balanced draw. Good result with Nadal and Warwinka coming together since although Rafa is 5th over the last 12 months in recent months he's really been 4th and Wawrinka 5th.

Rafa has a bit harder R1, with echoes of a classic match here 7 years ago. He does have some tricky matches but I think he can make the semi.

Thing with Murray may not work out as you think, he might hit freely and play unexpectedly well and build through the tournament. I think he will reach the final (at least).

Henman Bill wrote:Dolgopolov is somewhat tricky for R2, Dolgopolov yes he hasn't really pushed on in recent years, but perhaps still a cut above a typical R2 opponent, and an eratic player as well, which could mean anything. Very entertaining draw for Federer being against young players that are nice to watch.

Yes, balanced draw. Good result with Nadal and Warwinka coming together since although Rafa is 5th over the last 12 months in recent months he's really been 4th and Wawrinka 5th.

Rafa has a bit harder R1, with echoes of a classic match here 7 years ago. He does have some tricky matches but I think he can make the semi.

Thing with Murray may not work out as you think, he might hit freely and play unexpectedly well and build through the tournament. I think he will reach the final (at least).

I think the Dog tends to start the season well, has done well in Australia before. Maybe his illness leads to him getting tired over the course of a season. Agree he's a difficult round 2 draw for anyone.

Dimitrov seems to have started the season well, playing at his full potential he is a top ten player. So a tough draw if he's playing well.

Thiem/Goffin then Berdych or Kyrgios. I wouldn't be surprised if Fed doesn't make the semi finals.

Think he should (and does) aim to peak for Wimbledon/Us Open. He has more chances there.

As long as the other big players, especially Djokovic, are still in the draw, that's probably fair.

It's been pointed out that Murray (amid odds of 256-1) has been drawn to meet the lowest-possible seeds at each stage (32nd seed, 16th, 8th and 4th).
  I thought he might struggle to match his runner-up spot from last year, but he now has a good chance to reach the final.

I think we can safely pencil in a Murray novak final. As long as Kim doesn't go into labour. What will happen if she goes into labour on the eve of the final? What would you do if you were in such as position? I would fly home.

Udjkbrown2001 wrote:I think we can safely pencil in a Murray novak final. As long as Kim  doesn't go into labour. What will happen if she goes into labour on the eve of the final? What would you do if you were in such as position? I would fly home.

I would have Mrs LK in the players box and if she went into labour during the final, I'd call one of the longest MTO's in history.

Wonder if Djoko might actually get some day-time matches at the AO this year. Both Fed and Kyrgios are in his half of the draw and might get the night matches.
They reckon it's only extreme heat that can derail Djoko these days and the Australian (with its night schedule and, for Nole, suitable court speed) is set up ideally for him as his record in Melbourne shows.

legendkillarV2 wrote:

Udjkbrown2001 wrote:I think we can safely pencil in a Murray novak final. As long as Kim  doesn't go into labour. What will happen if she goes into labour on the eve of the final? What would you do if you were in such as position? I would fly home.

I would have Mrs LK in the players box and if she went into labour during the final, I'd call one of the longest MTO's in history.

Well that would depend. As sure as eggs are eggs if you played Federer in the final you'd forfeit at the drop of a hat and head back to the UK. ;-)

Re the scheduling (see my 3.34pm post) I see that Djoko has, indeed, got a day match on day one, with Fed, Tsonga and Kyrgios getting night games.

sirfredperry wrote:It's been pointed out that Murray (amid odds of 256-1) has been drawn to meet the lowest-possible seeds at each stage (32nd seed, 16th, 8th and 4th).
  I thought he might struggle to match his runner-up spot from last year, but he now has a good chance to reach the final.

That's a fantastic spot!

Here's a teaser: how many GS tournaments does it take for the chances of one of the top two seeds to get such a draw at least once to be greater than 50%? (feel free to use a calculator or Excel or whatever...)