AO 2016 - Day 2

First topic message reminder :

Order of Play - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/schedule/schedule7.html

Live Scores - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/index.html

Day 2 Preview - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/articles/2016-01-18/day_2_preview_aussie_pride.html

to all hitting the yellow fuzzy ball.

Nadal v Verdasco - will it be a repeat of 2009 fireworks?

Murray v Zverev promises to be interesting.

bogbrush wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Yes Haddie I said through last year that it seemed mental as in loss of confidence/belief and that seemed to be the case today.

Look at Konta today by comparison. She forged into the lead (had a wobble late in the second set) but overcame it and powered on to a win. That is because mentally she is in a great place and really believes. In comparison Rafa got himself ahead in the final set but it turned out to be a very different story as if he had belief issues and confidence.

Yes, and it was wrong all last year too.

This is not mental, it's physical. It becomes mental when panic sets in because he knows the physical advantage no longer exists; then you get bad shot selection.

I've always said this "mental strength" thing is mostly b****ocks; much of it is simply confidence that you can outhit / outlast the other guy that means you keep applying pressure. Mental strength when you know you're outmatched is a different thing entirely.

Your early post I do agree with to an extent about loss of 5% power but that degree is also missing mentally. I mean he was a break up in the fifth set and Nadal of old would have smelt blood and kept his foot on Verdasco's throat and seen the win out but he didn't. His serve fell apart in that fifth set at a key time - that isn't a physical issue but more a mental block like you get in tensing up.

bogbrush wrote:The problem is power. Nadal no longer has it, and he cannot impart the kick to the ball or the raw speed to take players out of their zone. It doesn't mean he plays WTA tennis, his game was always based on bludgeoning strength so take 5% off and he's 50% of the player.

This.

A great player at their peak can play 10% below their best and still win.

But when they decline by 10%, the effects are much larger.

When Fed's foot speed slowed a fraction, the impact on his timing and endurance was much more than fractional.

Rafa with just a bit less power is a significantly reduced player.

Once Djoko's movement and agility begin to fade, the impact on his game will be similarly large.

It's decline. It comes to them all eventually and it's come for Rafa now.

A lot of it is mental. Rafa is a winner. Like Sampras before him. It's not the competing, it's the winning. The moment they stop winning matches, the belief evaporates. When someone plays for the love of the sport, the motivation is totally different to one who plays to win.

bogbrush wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Yes Haddie I said through last year that it seemed mental as in loss of confidence/belief and that seemed to be the case today.

Look at Konta today by comparison. She forged into the lead (had a wobble late in the second set) but overcame it and powered on to a win. That is because mentally she is in a great place and really believes. In comparison Rafa got himself ahead in the final set but it turned out to be a very different story as if he had belief issues and confidence.

Yes, and it was wrong all last year too.

This is not mental, it's physical. It becomes mental when panic sets in because he knows the physical advantage no longer exists; then you get bad shot selection.

I've always said this "mental strength" thing is mostly b****ocks; much of it is simply confidence that you can outhit / outlast the other guy that means you keep applying pressure. Mental strength when you know you're outmatched is a different thing entirely.

Oh well that's it then the oracle has spoken, he who knows best..discussion over

legendkillarV2 wrote:A lot of it is mental. Rafa is a winner. Like Sampras before him. It's not the competing, it's the winning. The moment they stop winning matches, the belief evaporates. When someone plays for the love of the sport, the motivation is totally different to one who plays to win.

Exactly.

The physicality of it all never overcame him today. I mean he was leading 2-0 in the fifth set - how did he manage to get to that stage if it is ALL physical. When someone leads in the final set (and is a 14 times slam winner) and crumbles you have to question the mental side as in confidence and belief.

Wawrinka leading 7-6 6-3 and Tursonov retires injured. Good work out for Stan.

well at least Rosol won so I won't finish with no points at all in SB's game

good win too for OAP Hewitt against Duckworth. Night session match against Ferrer on Rod Laver wouldn't be a bad way to bow out, not that Hewitt will see it that way

agree with BB and HM. Rafa has started deteriorating physically. as simple as that.

his game was always based on power and chasing a ball down. sure he had the shots, the topspin, the angles etc, but to execute those he had to. chase the ball down first.

he has lost a fraction of his power and a fraction of his speed and that is telling against players who have brute power.

verdasco has bags of power and he has always troubled Rafa.

in fact Murray and Djokovic have gone the Rafa way of extreme fitness and chasing balls.

extremely fitness doesn't last.

right now it feels like Djokovic can win 20 slams. there's no one who can stop him.

we said the same of Federer a while back and then of Rafa.

time and age usually have the last laugh.

CaledonianCraig wrote:The physicality of it all never overcame him today. I mean he was leading 2-0 in the fifth set - how did he manage to get to that stage if it is ALL physical. When someone leads in the final set (and is a 14 times slam winner) and crumbles you have to question the mental side as in confidence and belief.

It's not physical decline in that he gets exhausted.

It's decline in that he has less power to call upon in every single shot and every single stride.

When the afterburners that a player has used his whole career in tight matches are no longer available, that puts much greater pressure on him.

So yes, it is partly mental... but that's a symptom rather than a cause. The cause is the physical condition.

HM I am not ruling out what BB said I did say earlier I can certainly see what he is saying about Rafa being 5% down physically on what he was but also the mental side is not the same as well - most definitely.

Isner kicks that annoying Janowic in the nuts, in 3.

Gooooodddd

He's a little down on power yes but there was a key point in the 5th at 2-3 on deuce. Rafa runs round and hits a fh inside in, and it wasn't nearly good enough and left himself open, he didn't commit to it enough.

In short he's not permanently boned, there's plenty room to still improve other areas, nreds to commit to his shots better

coolpixel wrote:agree with BB and HM. Rafa has started deteriorating physically. as simple as that.

his game was always based on power and chasing a ball down. sure he had the shots, the topspin, the angles etc, but to execute those he had to. chase the ball down first.

he has lost a fraction of his power and a fraction of his speed and that is telling against players who have brute power.

verdasco  has bags of power and he has always troubled Rafa.

in fact Murray and Djokovic have gone the Rafa way of extreme fitness and chasing balls.

extremely fitness doesn't last.

right now it feels like Djokovic can win 20 slams. there's no one who can stop him.

we said the same of Federer a while back and then of Rafa.

time and age usually have the last laugh.

Exactly and I said as much in a previous post.. and you don't think that he knows this and thus it affects him mentally..
really ???? I wouldn't put money on it

Haddie-nuff wrote:

coolpixel wrote:agree with BB and HM. Rafa has started deteriorating physically. as simple as that.

his game was always based on power and chasing a ball down. sure he had the shots, the topspin, the angles etc, but to execute those he had to. chase the ball down first.

he has lost a fraction of his power and a fraction of his speed and that is telling against players who have brute power.

verdasco  has bags of power and he has always troubled Rafa.

in fact Murray and Djokovic have gone the Rafa way of extreme fitness and chasing balls.

extremely fitness doesn't last.

right now it feels like Djokovic can win 20 slams. there's no one who can stop him.

we said the same of Federer a while back and then of Rafa.

time and age usually have the last laugh.

Exactly and I said as much in a previous post.. and you don't think that he knows this and thus it affects him mentally..
really ???? I wouldn't put money on it

Precisely. If you have a physical issue and are aware of it as sure as eggs are eggs it becomes a mental issue as well as in erodes away confidence and belief.

HM Murdock wrote:So yes, it is partly mental... but that's a symptom rather than a cause. The cause is the physical condition.

This is unlikely to get any better as Time marches on, despite all attempts to the contrary. A Time Machine is the only solution.

Forehando played a breathtaking match with some stunning forehands and accurate serving.

HM Murdock wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:The physicality of it all never overcame him today. I mean he was leading 2-0 in the fifth set - how did he manage to get to that stage if it is ALL physical. When someone leads in the final set (and is a 14 times slam winner) and crumbles you have to question the mental side as in confidence and belief.

It's not physical decline in that he gets exhausted.

It's decline in that he has less power to call upon in every single shot and every single stride.

When the afterburners that a player has used his whole career in tight matches are no longer available, that puts much greater pressure on him.

So yes, it is partly mental... but that's a symptom rather than a cause. The cause is the physical condition.

I'm not sure I buy this. This theory is heavily propagated by Federer fans who like to suggest that the loss of "power" is linked to a change in Nadal's training regime. I would be very surprised if Nadal has actually lost power at the age of 29 - power normally fades long after speed and I can't detect a significant dip in speed.

My impression is that the physical signs are probably caused by the mental concerns. He isn't as confident as he once was and so, when it gets tight, he doesn't hit through the ball as well. Its no coincidence that the real bad losses in the last few months have either come in finals or in slams. He needs to somehow find a way through one of these matches but its that he's really struggling with at the moment. He did nothing to stop Nando in the final set - just kept playing the same way and watching forehands fly past him.

^ What is your explanation for why a player, who throughout his career has been lauded as being one of the mentally toughest players ever, is suddenly getting nervous? In early round matches against lower ranked players?

HM Murdock wrote:^ What is your explanation for why a player, who throughout his career has been lauded as being one of the mentally toughest players ever, is suddenly getting nervous? In early round matches against lower ranked
players?

Where have you been this last year HM.. the discussion has rambled on with everyone's theories as to what has happened if you had read the many articles and interviews with Rafa you were lead to believe he didn't know either.
If we, or more precisely he, knew the answer there would be more hope of a "cure". A sudden loss of confidence in ones own ability after years of being at the top of your game/profession is not something just tennis players suffer with.
Psychological problems affect us all at some stage in our life.

The difficulty in re-discovering form after injury - scars of having lost a few early matches in slams in the last year?

Having watched him destroy Stan a couple of times at the end of last year (to the extent that Stan basically gave up he had so little chance), I am struggling with the concept that physically he is now unable to beat much lower ranked players. Its also notable that these defeats appear to be coming just in slams (only Fed, Stan and Novak having beaten him in other events since the US).

Nadal quote after losing today:

"The game is changing a little bit," the world number five said after only his second career loss in the opening round of a grand slam tournament.

"Everybody now tries to hit all the balls. There are no balls that you can prepare the point. The game has become a little bit more crazy in this aspect.

So no more waiting for the opponent to make UE's as Nadal used to grind and wait?

End of Nadal this.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:

coolpixel wrote:agree with BB and HM. Rafa has started deteriorating physically. as simple as that.

his game was always based on power and chasing a ball down. sure he had the shots, the topspin, the angles etc, but to execute those he had to. chase the ball down first.

he has lost a fraction of his power and a fraction of his speed and that is telling against players who have brute power.

verdasco  has bags of power and he has always troubled Rafa.

in fact Murray and Djokovic have gone the Rafa way of extreme fitness and chasing balls.

extremely fitness doesn't last.

right now it feels like Djokovic can win 20 slams. there's no one who can stop him.

we said the same of Federer a while back and then of Rafa.

time and age usually have the last laugh.

Exactly and I said as much in a previous post.. and you don't think that he knows this and thus it affects him mentally..
really ???? I wouldn't put money on it

Precisely. If you have a physical issue and are aware of it as sure as eggs are eggs it becomes a mental issue as well as in erodes away confidence and belief.

OK, but that makes the problem and solution a physical one.

I said this; the mental follows the physical. Take Djokovic; when he knows he can't run as hard, or stretch so well, he'll feel the pressure and someone might say he's mentally less secure, the problem would be his hamstrings or stamina, or whatever.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

HM Murdock wrote:^ What is your explanation for why a player, who throughout his career has been lauded as being one of the mentally toughest players ever, is suddenly getting nervous? In early round matches against lower ranked
players?

Where have you been this last year HM.. the discussion has rambled on with everyone's theories as to what has happened if you had read the many articles and interviews with Rafa you were lead to believe he didn't know either.
If we, or more precisely he, knew the answer there would be more hope of a "cure". A sudden loss of confidence in ones own ability after years of being at the top of your game/profession is not something just tennis players suffer with.
Psychological problems affect us all at some stage in our life.

Dare I let this one go by?

^Haddie, I'm just surprised that we have an athlete, with a history of physical ailments, a few months shy of turning 30, with a style of play widely recognised as being physically demanding, with a decade of the wear and tear of top level tennis behind him... and many think there's a greater chance the problems are mental rather than physical.

For me, it would be more of a surprise if his level didn't start dropping by now.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Verdasco played some great stuff. The way it panned out I think is symptomatic of Rafa's last year and a bit. Players who now get into tight scraps with him in the past saw him as an invincible superman and the belief hinder them. Now Rafa has lost that aura and Verdasco kept belief where in the past it may have evaporated.

Spot on CC. Players now THINK they can beat Rafa. Like sharks, they sense blood in the water. I've never been a great Rafa fan, although I admire him enormously. But I'm disappointed he's lost. To me, he's the only one likely to give Djoko a run for his money this season. The clay-court season this year is going to be crucial.
How about another upset tomorrow, with Dolgo beating Fed ? It's on Rod Laver court but it's not a night match. Fed rarely loses at night and as he has said the day-time conditions at Melbourne are quite different.

temporary21 wrote:That would have been a hell of a stupid way to do it tbh

Or a brilliant double bluff??????????????

Born Slippy wrote:I'm not sure I buy this. This theory is heavily propagated by Federer fans who like to suggest that the loss of "power" is linked to a change in Nadal's training regime. I would be very surprised if Nadal has actually lost power at the age of 29 - power normally fades long after speed and I can't detect a significant dip in speed.

It is a natural loss of power, unrelated to training. He started playing the Pro tour at 15, unlike many others. (Please do not instigate a war with the "Federer fans" classification . SoCal will have a field day otherwise). Endurance and instantaneous power are completely different. Wish Lydian was here! Nadal has made changes to his racquet, is playing a different schedule. Perhaps it is not blindingly obvious, but it is there.

Born Slippy wrote:My impression is that the physical signs are probably caused by the mental concerns. He isn't as confident as he once was and so, when it gets tight, he doesn't hit through the ball as well. Its no coincidence that the real bad losses in the last few months have either come in finals or in slams. He needs to somehow find a way through one of these matches but its that he's really struggling with at the moment. He did nothing to stop Nando in the final set - just kept playing the same way and watching forehands fly past him.  

Mental and physical aspects go hand-in-hand together. If you drop mid-court balls more often, and get pounded, it is not good for your confidence.  It is a slow cycle. I am just happy to see him play.

Nadal was up a break in the fifth, BTW, and had a chance for double-break.

Nadal surged to a 2-0 lead in the fifth set, making a similar forehand down the line for a winner that Verdasco had missed in the previous game to be broken.

Nadal had a break point in the following game with Verdasco serving at 30-40 that surely would have put Verdasco away for good.

In hindsight, it was by far and away the most important point of the 362 they played.

Hanging on by a thread, Verdasco attacked like a man possessed, crushing three consecutive aces to Nadal’s backhand wing – all of them painting the line.

That made four aces in the game, including one on the opening point that also went to the backhand.

http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/articles/2016-01-19/verdasco_sends_nadal_packing.html

bogbrush wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:

HM Murdock wrote:^ What is your explanation for why a player, who throughout his career has been lauded as being one of the mentally toughest players ever, is suddenly getting nervous? In early round matches against lower ranked
players?

Where have you been this last year HM.. the discussion has rambled on with everyone's theories as to what has happened if you had read the many articles and interviews with Rafa you were lead to believe he didn't know either.
If we, or more precisely he, knew the answer there would be more hope of a "cure". A sudden loss of confidence in ones own ability after years of being at the top of your game/profession is not something just tennis players suffer with.
Psychological problems affect us all at some stage in our life.

Dare I let this one go by?

Well Im glad you have acknowledged that  you have a problem.. when you are not in denial you have a better chance of dealing with it.. you should feel a whole lot better now

Tell you what, now they're past Rd 1, Federer has a right sticky draw. From here on he plays only proper players, starting with Dolgo.

Could be interesting, you can't rule out an upset here.

So are we saying that one of the if not fittest player the game has seen is dead in R1 of a Slam??

The guy had a chance for a double break in the 5th and we are saying his body just gave up? No adrenaline in the tank?

That's a new one on me.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:

HM Murdock wrote:^ What is your explanation for why a player, who throughout his career has been lauded as being one of the mentally toughest players ever, is suddenly getting nervous? In early round matches against lower ranked
players?

Where have you been this last year HM.. the discussion has rambled on with everyone's theories as to what has happened if you had read the many articles and interviews with Rafa you were lead to believe he didn't know either.
If we, or more precisely he, knew the answer there would be more hope of a "cure". A sudden loss of confidence in ones own ability after years of being at the top of your game/profession is not something just tennis players suffer with.
Psychological problems affect us all at some stage in our life.

Dare I let this one go by?

Well Im glad you have acknowledged that  you have a problem.. when you are not in denial you have a better chance of dealing with it.. you should feel a whole lot better now

legendkillarV2 wrote:So are we saying that one of the if not fittest player the game has seen is dead in R1 of a Slam??

The guy had a chance for a double break in the 5th and we are saying his body just gave up? No adrenaline in the tank?

That's a new one on me.

If anyone said that it wasn't me.

My point about his physicality is that he no longer has the same power. That goes from the first shot.

I agree some of the power has dropped, but even more worringly the intensity has gone. I'd say that's probably a bit more mental.

He lost to a player who is renowned for a choke.

Haddie, bb. Friendly warning, I am still here... Let's not have the usual post rafa stuff eh? Also if fed goes out, let's please not have THAT postmortem either

Fed dog tomoz right? I might have to stay up for that one...

legendkillarV2 wrote:So are we saying that one of the if not fittest player the game has seen is dead in R1 of a Slam??

The guy had a chance for a double break in the 5th and we are saying his body just gave up? No adrenaline in the tank?

That's a new one on me.

I agree .. new one on me.. weird interpretation :headscratch

temporary21 wrote:Haddie, bb.  Friendly warning, I am still here... Let's not have the usual post rafa stuff eh?  Also if fed goes out, let's please not have THAT postmortem either

Fed dog tomoz right? I might have to stay up for that one...

Lighten up temp.. for my part at least it was purely banter.. Cant speak for the other party

temporary21 wrote:Fed dog tomoz right?

You're so gangsta, temp.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

temporary21 wrote:Haddie, bb.  Friendly warning, I am still here... Let's not have the usual post rafa stuff eh?  Also if fed goes out, let's please not have THAT postmortem either

Fed dog tomoz right? I might have to stay up for that one...

Lighten  up temp.. for my part at least  it was purely banter.. Cant speak for the other party

For once (well, there are previous times) I wholly agree with Haddie.

I've not read a post on this thread that should incur moderator wrath. I take it you're back in the chair again?

temporary21 wrote:Haddie, bb.  Friendly warning, I am still here... Let's not have the usual post rafa stuff eh?  Also if fed goes out, let's please not have THAT postmortem either

Fed dog tomoz right? I might have to stay up for that one...

If Federer goes out I'd expect a major PM and i'd be here to participate. Isn't that pretty much what a tennis discussion forum is for? What else do we talk about, their favourite colour?

I must be on the wrong forum.. bb agreeing with moi

There will be no or  should the maestro get beaten
I cannot mock the elderly
But if we get  comments such as how beautiful he is in victory I cant promise I wont

Should we be so surprised at the Rafa result? In some ways yes, in that Verdasco is now 32 and Rafa appeared to be in reasonable form and fitness.
BUT IN SOME WAYS NO, in that Rafa has ALWAYS been susceptible to someone blowing him away. As far back as 2008, with Rafa later that year capturing the number one spot, JWT smashed him off the park in Melbourne. More recently we've seen Rosol and Dustin Brown do the same to him at Wimbledon.
Have just watched the Rafa post-match interview. What was disappointing, and Rafa said this himself, was that he felt in good nick.

Haddie-nuff wrote:I must be on the wrong forum.. bb agreeing with moi

There will be no or  should the maestro get beaten
I cannot mock the elderly
But if we get  comments such as how beautiful he is in victory I cant promise I wont

Sick buckets at the ready.

I didn't see any of it so I will check highlights, I will guess that Nadal's unlimited stamina was not with him today like it hasn't been since 2014. His knee is better than its been for years so can't use that excuse.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:I must be on the wrong forum.. bb agreeing with moi

There will be no or  should the maestro get beaten
I cannot mock the elderly
But if we get  comments such as how beautiful he is in victory I cant promise I wont

Sick buckets at the ready.

I promise not to describe Federers game as 'beautiful' if you promise not to overboard with Andy and use words like 'hardest working' or 'quite skilful'.

bogbrush wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:I must be on the wrong forum.. bb agreeing with moi

There will be no or  should the maestro get beaten
I cannot mock the elderly
But if we get  comments such as how beautiful he is in victory I cant promise I wont

Sick buckets at the ready.

I promise not to describe Federers game as 'beautiful' if you promise not to overboard with Andy and use words like 'hardest working' or 'quite skilful'.

OK OK promise but would I be allowed a little or a or is that pushing it too far

I'd rip it if I were you!

This is now six straight slams that Rafa went out before SF.  That is quite unusual, though not entirely unheard of.  I looked at the slam results from other open era greats to see if any of them had similar barren stretches somewhere between their first and last slam win.  Two of them did:

Agassi entered 13 slams between his 1995 AO win and 1999 FO win.  They included a stretch of 6 slams (USO97-AO99) in which he failed to reach SF.  In fact, he never got past Rd4 in those six slams.

Becker also had a six-slam stretch in which he failed to make SF - USO91-FO93.  this was a part of 15-slam slamless span before he won his final slam (AO96).

Nevertheless, it is pretty rare for a player to go as long without a SF as Rafa has gone so far, and then return to slam winning ways.

To me, this year's clay court season will be critical.  If Rafa is back to near his best, and either comes away as the best player on clay this year - or at worst a close second to Novak - then I can see him recovering his form and having another couple of productive years.  If, on the other hand, his clay court season is no better than last year, then I am inclined to think it will be downhill from there.