AO 2016 - Day 14

First topic message reminder :

Order of Play - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/schedule/schedule19.html

Live Scores - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/index.html

Day 14 Preview - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/articles/2016-01-31/ao_analyst_how_murray_can_beat_djokovic.html

(Apologies for being tardy...)

No predictions from me, but Murray has his work cut-out if he wants the Norman Brooks Trophy.

Number of Comments/Views on 606v2 Tennis for each main AO day (as of this writing).

Day 1 - 19/500
Day 2 - 96/1324
Day 3 - 35/675
Day 4 - 33/542
Day 5 - 102/1578
Day 6 - 48/795
Day 7 - 251/2941
Day 8 - 120/1639
Day 9 - 93/1598
Day 10 - 115/1660
Day 11 - 254/3570
Day 12 - 128/2098
Day 13 - 39/565
Day 14 - ?/?

legendkillarV2 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Hmm he lost the set 6-1 just like Federer did but I didn't hear that word used then. Just saying like. Is Federer allowed to lose a set 6-1 and it cannot be called feeble?

Can't comment as I didn't see the match.

It's a given it wouldn't have been labelled feeble.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Hmm he lost the set 6-1 just like Federer did but I didn't hear that word used then. Just saying like. Is Federer allowed to lose a set 6-1 and it cannot be called feeble?

Can't comment as I didn't see the match.

It's a given it wouldn't have been labelled feeble.

I am sure the age factor would've been mentioned

legendkillarV2 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Hmm he lost the set 6-1 just like Federer did but I didn't hear that word used then. Just saying like. Is Federer allowed to lose a set 6-1 and it cannot be called feeble?

Can't comment as I didn't see the match.

It's a given it wouldn't have been labelled feeble.

I am sure the age factor would've been mentioned

Surely, to high heaven counter-balanced by one being seen as Jesus Christ whilst the other seen as a virtual non-entity? No?

legendkillarV2 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Hmm he lost the set 6-1 just like Federer did but I didn't hear that word used then. Just saying like. Is Federer allowed to lose a set 6-1 and it cannot be called feeble?

Can't comment as I didn't see the match.

Federal was feeble at the beginning of that match, although, to be fair, Novak's level was higher than today (almost God-like, in fact).

Great break by Murray to level at 3-3. Maybe he hasn't decided to give up yet.

And now Murray knows in his heart of hearts that the match is over, and therefore the pressure is off... And he starts playing superbly!

It really is between the ears with Andy.

This is anything but a feeble performance by Murray, he's doing everything he can.

Murray breaks! Could get interesting now. Novak is prone to the occasional meltdown and will undoubtedly get frustrated if Andy can nick a set.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Hmm he lost the set 6-1 just like Federer did but I didn't hear that word used then. Just saying like. Is Federer allowed to lose a set 6-1 and it cannot be called feeble?

Can't comment as I didn't see the match.

It's a given it wouldn't have been labelled feeble.

I am sure the age factor would've been mentioned

Surely, to high heaven counter-balanced by one being seen as Jesus Christ whilst the other seen as a virtual non-entity? No?

I steer clear of the comparitive narrative.

I think if Andy could sustain the heavy shots, he'd have so much more joy. It's the extreme fluctuations of sheer brilliance to not such brilliance in a short space of time. For once I would love him to take the front foot.

Nice! Andy ahead and Novak has something to think about. Definitely not a procession.

Going forward (as this is still lost) then Murray has to win more crunch points. For the last two sets here he has gone toe-to-toe with Djokovic and competed very well.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Going forward (as this is still lost) then Murray has to win more crunch points. For the last two sets here he has gone toe-to-toe with Djokovic and competed very well.

Think today he could've done more on the Djokovic first serve.

Andy doesn't need to be playing 10/10 as the commentators are suggesting. A solid 8 would be fine. That was another truly awful return game having got back ahead.

It is games like this one he has to learn to shore up in and close them out at the business end of sets as well.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Going forward (as this is still lost) then Murray has to win more crunch points. For the last two sets here he has gone toe-to-toe with Djokovic and competed very well.

Agreed. Just a shame about that first set...

At least he's making Nole work hard for the trophy now.

Andy keeps his nose in front. Can he turn the screw on Novak's serve?

Good morning everyone. Not a classic so far, judging from the score.

dyrewolfe wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Going forward (as this is still lost) then Murray has to win more crunch points. For the last two sets here he has gone toe-to-toe with Djokovic and competed very well.

Agreed. Just a shame about that first set...

At least he's making Nole work hard for the trophy now.

Second set was the crucial one. 5-4 up and 15-30 - mugged up. 5-5 40-0 - mugged up. 5-6 30-40 up (with Novak teetering) - mugged up.

Andy has been playing good aggressive stuff, but this is a game to give nothing away in. A cheap BH error and Novak gets the perfect start.

Born Slippy wrote:

dyrewolfe wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Going forward (as this is still lost) then Murray has to win more crunch points. For the last two sets here he has gone toe-to-toe with Djokovic and competed very well.

Agreed. Just a shame about that first set...

At least he's making Nole work hard for the trophy now.

Second set was the crucial one. 5-4 up and 15-30 - mugged up. 5-5 40-0 - mugged up. 5-6 30-40 up (with Novak teetering) - mugged up.

That's basically it in a nutshell BS.

Feel the screw will be applied by Novak.

Born Slippy wrote:

dyrewolfe wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Going forward (as this is still lost) then Murray has to win more crunch points. For the last two sets here he has gone toe-to-toe with Djokovic and competed very well.

Agreed. Just a shame about that first set...

At least he's making Nole work hard for the trophy now.

Second set was the crucial one. 5-4 up and 15-30 - mugged up. 5-5 40-0 - mugged up. 5-6 30-40 up (with Novak teetering) - mugged up.

Yeah - agonising and unbelieveable he couldn't take advantage at least one of those times. But that first set wouldn't have helped Murray mentally...and he really needs to be right in the head to play well.

summerblues wrote:Good morning everyone. Not a classic so far, judging from the score.

Quality has been ok, but too one-sided to really get the juices flowing.

Far, far too many easy errors from Murray. Dumping mid court forehands into the net, halfway up.

Probably the lowest standard Slam final for a long time.

The first set was an abhorrent nightmare and one I'd choose to ignore. The latter two sets are more comparitive of what I'd expect in terms of competitiveness.

Great serving.

bogbrush wrote:Far, far too many easy errors from Murray. Dumping mid court forehands into the net, halfway up.

Probably the lowest standard Slam final for a long time.

It may just be me but Murray's errors are coming at a time when he is looking to play a key shot in the rally. No real pressure on the execution of the shot but pressure on the shot at that moment if you see what I mean.

Well played Andy and he's guaranteed at least a TB now. Still thinks that this could get interesting if Andy can nick the 3rd. Novak not exactly on fire. Should Andy roll the dice in this game or keep it tight?

Good stuff from Andy to keep this set competitive. That's a real positive as in the past he'd have just gone away after letting the second set get away.

Hope he gets this in the tie break, just for belief really. But I expect Novak will get it as he's so superior mentally.

Love that play. Shame we're seeing it for the first time now!

bogbrush wrote:Far, far too many easy errors from Murray. Dumping mid court forehands into the net, halfway up.

Probably the lowest standard Slam final for a long time.

Careful. The one match a year brigade will disagree

Easy miss again just at the wrong time.

What a time for a DF!

bogbrush wrote:Far, far too many easy errors from Murray. Dumping mid court forehands into the net, halfway up.

Probably the lowest standard Slam final for a long time.

You're probably in a very small minority with that opinion (though yes Andy made some unnecessary errors).

First set was a no-contest but the second came down to some pretty small margins and the third is panning out the same way.

Double faults killing Andy. Berate him or credit him for trying to be aggressive on the second serve? Take your pick.

I'd be interested which is worse. Possibly Cilic / Nishikori because he was knackered.

Look at the tie break. Terrible,

Aargh, gets to the crunch and Andy wilts. Why is he nervous at 2-0 down? Does that mean he still thinks he could win it?

CaledonianCraig wrote:Double faults killing Andy. Berate him or credit him for trying to be aggressive on the second serve? Take your pick.

Trying to force the issue. Admirable. Shame it wasn't there from the off.

Congratulations Novak on joining Roy Emerson as a record six times winner of the Australian Open and nets his 11th slam taking him level with greats of the sport such as Borg and Laver (I think it is). Three adrift of Rafa and six adrift of Federer.

For Andy what can he take from this? Another slam final racked up (now level with Boris on that count) and maintained his No.2 ranking (but by March that will be gone). Time to lick his wounds and go home to enjoy the birth of his first child.

bogbrush wrote:I'd be interested which is worse. Possibly Cilic / Nishikori because he was knackered.

Look at the tie break. Terrible,

I think Murray-Djoko matches can be deceptive. They both smother the court so well that errors are likely to come. You're probably not far wrong though. I'd agree that Cilic-Nishi was worse and what about that French Open where Ferrer got to the final (or does that count as too long ago)?

Great victory for Djokovic. Looming ever closer to Nadal and Sampras.  

Tough luck, not injured Raonic would of crushed Djoko today.

Good fight from Andy, he needs Lendl back.

Congrats Nole. Well done.

I am glad I did not wake up for this match.

Jahu,

I do not know I quite agree Raonic would have crushed Djoko (), but yeah, too bad he got injured. I did not see him at all, but he beat Stan and was beating Andy, so presumed he was playing well.

SB, I swear Milo would crush him, that would be a national fight, tiny Montenegro vs Serbia, it would be bloody and patriotic war.

Maybe next time

BS was right he has improved his serve and is hitting the backhand with more authority. I was impressed with Murray. He had Novak on the ropes in the second set and was attacking the second serve and actually moving into the court. The margins were very thin for most of the match. I think he can build confidence with how he finished. Problem for Murray is he can't hit threw Novak without making a lot off errors. He has to rev his game to 7000 or 8000 rpms for four or five hours and he eventually pops a gasket. Meanwhile Novak attains the same or higher level with less effort. Murray just seems to burn so much energy to stay close that you feel even if it went four five at some point Novak would break him down physically.

Congrats to Novak! A deserved winner. What an awesome 12 months he's had.

As a Murray fan, I'm not overly disappointed with this one, as I had very low expectations in the first place. Although Oz is Andy's most consistent slam, I actually think he currently has more chance at every other slam, mainly due to Novak's total dominance in Australia.

In regards to the Novak conundrum, I think Murray is getting too fixated with strategy. I think his first concern should be simply to play well, as the reason for his recent losses are more to do with execution than anything else. If he starts playing well and still losing, then he can start obsessing about strategy.

I also think a major factor in the current lopsided H2H is that Murray has no confidence anymore that he can go long against Novak. Since his return from injury, he's been burnt a number of times by fading dramatically after 2 or 3 gruelling sets. As a result, I think Andy believes he has to get out in front and play with relentless aggression, which adds pressure and could help explain (although not excuse) his dodgy start today.

I think this physical inferiority complex affects Roger in a similar way. Somehow, they both have to trick themselves into believing the first set isn't so crucial to their chances, as, perversely, the belief it is crucial actually makes it a lot harder to win. A good example of this effect was the drubbing Andy got against Roger at the WTF 2015. Due to the group points system, Andy had to win the first set and I think the pressure of this got to him and he never settled as a result.

As for Novak, the world is his oyster now. He looks to have no serious challengers at the slams and the calendar slam looks a distinct possibility (although, as last year showed, it's a bit too early to get carried away about that). The French Open could be key, as this is the only event where Novak has any kind of psychological demons to contend with. However, even if the French continues to elude him, you'd still fancy him to clear up everywhere else. The rest of the field has to hope that Novak gets obsessed with completing the slam collection and takes his eye off the ball elewhere. I wouldn't bank on it though.

Novak is a mental giant. He is just rock solid when it matters. Murray can match him and stay with him for spells, but is so up and down emotionally that you just feel the outcome is inevitable. His error count was so high, but it wasn't the high risk shots he missed!

We also need to remember that Novak has lost 1 match in 6 years here. And that was by a piece of paper to Stan. It would be easy to slate Andy, but apart from Stan I don't see anyone else with much to shout about on this court.

Novak is firmly amongst the greatest ever, and the others need to work out how to knock him off this perch.

Good posts by Danny and autograph. If I was Murray fan I wouldn't feel too bad. This was the acid test playing Novak on this court on current form and really was a couple of points at the end of the second set from making it much tougher. We know with the lopsided record lately he was not the favorite. But I think if he bottles what he did in sets 2 and 3 and can bring that four or five sets at the USO or wimby where Novak is a little less dominant he can beat him.


For Novak he is again one slam away from holding all four slams at once and winning 4 in a row. A truly gigantic accomplishment, if there wasn't enough pressure already for him at Rg. But he was so poised and his game looks as good or better than last year if that is possible. His calm in pressure situations was huge except for the back to back doubles in the second set.