US presidential elections

Morning all,

So after the win in Iowa for Ted Cruz last night where do we see this going?

I'm thinking Clinton v Rubio. Lots of twists and turns still to come though.

Problem with polls is that a lot of time people will say either.
- What they think you want to see/hear
- What they're feeling AT THAT EXACT MOMENT

Very different on your own in that booth. It's why I don't think the elections are gonna be anything but close.

#prayforhilary

Maths clearly not the BBC's strong point

Democratic vote, 99% reported:
◾Hillary Clinton: 50%, 22 delegates
◾Bernie Sanders 50%, 21 delegates
◾Martin O'Malley, 1%, no delegates

LOL

Sky had it:

Clinton 49.9%
Sanders 49.5%
MOM <1%

Easier way to do it!

Feel sorry for Sanders, he's done fantastically well to get that close.

He seems like the only genuinely nice person in all of this.

The wonderful world of democracy: Rubio wins the Republican side by finishing third, and on the Democrat side everone loses. O'Malley was always going to get crushed by the rules in Iowa, but has decided to quit the race; Sanders really needed to win Iowa to stand a chance but almost certainly hasn't; and Clinton needed (and claimed) a win but it isn't immediately clear she has it.

How has Rubio 'won' the Republican side?

Find the US system pretty confuring tbh, but it seems far from clear cut who's winning what to me.

TopHat24/7 wrote:How has Rubio 'won' the Republican side?

He was expected to come a clear third and nearly took second place, and demonstrated that he can unite the 'establishment' voters, which was the biggest question surrounding him. The faster the number of candidates goes down, the better it is for Rubio, and he's probably a decent result in New Hampshire away from this becoming a three horse race.

ah ok, good points.

Spare a thought for Republican candidate Jim Gilmore, who got beaten in to last place by 'Other'. Twelve votes weren't enough to push him over 0.0%.

l*l out loud

Oh dear as soon as Clinton starts slipping the SEXISM card comes out..

Pathetic..

Former secretary of state Madeleine Albright "There is a special place in hell for any woman that doesn't vote for Hillary"..

Go away you pitiful old hag..

Hilary is definitely 'feeling the Bern'.

What did you make of Christie/Rubio, Truss?

He's a really good debater Christie as well as a scumbag..

Absolutely creamed him..

Not paid much attention to him but that was brutal and Rubio had no answer to him. It was cringeworthy watching him trying to force that tired Obama line in.

Two national polls show...

Clinton 48-45 Sanders
Clinton 44-42 Sanders....

Sanders was 30 points behind not long ago.......

Hillary will be getting dirty..

Hillary must be sweating this morning. Bernie wins big!

Must be the end for Christie, unless he hangs about to derail Rubio some more. Think Bush will build on his showing in New Hampshire. He's got more chance in the Southern States than Trump & Cruz.

Hillary has the big states sown up...........All about demography..

However the fact a so called loon is giving her a close race is concerning for the general...

Her negative ratings on things like trust are shocking...

The GOP have a great chance if they pick well............I've been surprised.... A couple of months ago I thought she'd walk it....Now I'm not so sure..

I was watching one of the US News Channels over here last night and they said Bernie could end up taking the 'Women over 45' vote and if he does, she's in big trouble.

She has too many clouds over her head for me, the emails, her apparent changes of opinion when public speaking; even her record on LGBT rights isn't great. She doesn't resonate with the 'everyday' people like Bernie does.

Did you see Bloomberg is plotting a run as an independent? Curtains for Hillary if that happens.

She only has to resonate against her opponent......

Bernie is a loon and she has 47% before she starts against the GOP.....

Women over 45 are a given for Hillary..

She plays well with ethnic voters...and America is far more multicultural than it's ever been..

But Bernie could be the man of the people, wanting to give back to the working people of America; i don't think Hillary will run away with it, Truss.

Truss you're hilarious sometimes. How is Bernie a loon?

Hillary has shown herself to be a duplicitous, untrustworthy turncoat who just says whatever she has to. Nobody truly knows what she believes.

She says she's anti-Wall Street but then takes over $3m as a "speaking fee" from Goldman Sachs.

Sanders, on the other hand, has an impeccable voting record, has never changed his stance on the important issues and, quite honestly, seems to be the only genuine person in this entire shower of candidates.

Yes, his ideas are different, but isn't that what America needs right now? All of the candidates bang on about the economy. What does is matter that the economy is growing when wages for the average American haven't risen since the 80s and have fallen in real terms? Executive pay has rocketed since then and ordinary, gullible Americans are far worse off now than they have been for decades.

But the economy is growing, so everything is alright.

He's a socialist in a country where socialism is a dirty word....

You don't have to tell me about Clinton....

She's no more than scum............But she's Democratic scum with a chance of winning..

Which is preferrable to the alternative..

GOP would love Bernie to be the nominee.......They'd swallow the center ground.

Alistair wrote:Must be the end for Christie, unless he hangs about to derail Rubio some more. Think Bush will build on his showing in New Hampshire. He's got more chance in the Southern States than Trump & Cruz.

Agree on Christie, he needed 10% to stay in. Not so sure about Bush, he did just enough to hang around but he still isn't providing much return on the massive investment he's been getting.

In other news, Jim Gilmore's still running. Full results aren't in yet, but he's currently got over 10 times as many votes as he did in Iowa. That's still 0.0% though, and not quite enough to beat Paul, Huckabee or Santorum (who have all dropped out).

Spot on, Pr4wn. My thoughts exactly.

Just seen an interesting stat that says the old and the wealthy voted for Hillary in NH, everyone else voted Bernie.

Lowland, i think the Southern states will be where Jeb's campaign either gains steam or completely derails. You could argue that he's the more appealing choice to the demographic down there, and if he can't swing those votes, he's doomed. He'll be hoping Rubio loses more momentum and has another poor showing in front of the cameras.

Well done to The Don.

Listening to Trump, he's hilarious!

"We're going to make stuff better". That's pretty much all he says. Absolutely no explanation as to how he'll do it, extremely thin on real policy and he shows a startling lack of understanding of how the political process works.

Pr4wn wrote:Listening to Trump, he's hilarious!

"We're going to make stuff better". That's pretty much all he says. Absolutely no explanation as to how he'll do it, extremely thin on real policy and he shows a startling lack of understanding of how the political process works.

Yeah, but Obamacare went bad. Really biggly.

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Listening to Trump, he's hilarious!

"We're going to make stuff better". That's pretty much all he says. Absolutely no explanation as to how he'll do it, extremely thin on real policy and he shows a startling lack of understanding of how the political process works.

Yeah, but Obamacare went bad.  Really biggly.

'45, 35, 55, it's a mess'.

Alistair wrote:Lowland, i think the Southern states will be where Jeb's campaign either gains steam or completely derails. You could argue that he's the more appealing choice to the demographic down there, and if he can't swing those votes, he's doomed.

I very much doubt Southern primaries are going to go for Bush over Cruz and Rubio, unless New Hampshire completely breaks Rubio.

Pr4wn wrote:Listening to Trump, he's hilarious!

"We're going to make stuff better". That's pretty much all he says. Absolutely no explanation as to how he'll do it, extremely thin on real policy and he shows a startling lack of understanding of how the political process works.

Well the idea is to be thin on policy because people tend to examine it.....

He isn't going to repeal healthcare none of them are.....

He isn't going to stop muslims coming into America...

He isn't going to make America better because he has no idea how to "work" Congress.....

But If MCCarthy can convince parts of America the Communist menace is taking over......Trump can probably convince Apple pie-ers to put him up against Hillary..

Isn't Sanders doing better in the polls vs all the Republican candidates than Clinton is?

Would obviously prefer Clinton to a Republican, but would much prefer Sanders. Clinton seems to change her view to adapt to what she thinks people want to hear, so it's hard to know what she really thinks about anything. Her endorsing of some pretty crass comments on women voting for Sanders was poor, and her voting record shows she favours war, wall street, harsher prison sentences, etc. Not really my cup of tea. Her campaign for the nomination - which she seems to have taken as a given until recently - overly focussed on "I'm a woman so all women must vote for me" IMO, which is a poor argument.

Sanders by contrast has consistent views, and his message seems to be resonating much better with the voters. I still fear Clinton's overwhelming financial backing could be enough for her to carry the day, but the fact it's getting so close is at least an encouraging sign. If people do get out to vote I think Sanders has a genuine chance.

Also, Bloomberg is a non-starter. Sanders would make mincemeat out of him in any debate.

Mind you, if there's one thing this election needs it's another billionaire. It takes a billionaire to know what America needs.

He's behind Hillary in the national vote and she hasn't even started sticking the boot in yet....

She's been complacent....

Sanders can't win a general...Because as soon as the GOP start saying he wants to spread the wealth there will be hell to pay.....

The GOP want Hillary to move left to deal with Bernie.....So they are happy to leave him alone....

Sanders hasn't been attacked yet and he can't beat Clinton in the big States..

Anti-establishment can only go so far..

Sad but true.

Pr4wn wrote:Also, Bloomberg is a non-starter. Sanders would make mincemeat out of him in any debate.

Mind you, if there's one thing this election needs it's another billionaire. It takes a billionaire to know what America needs.

It's more about what Bloomberg's presence would do to Hillary's chances.

He won't run against Hillary.....

He doesn't want Sanders and he hates Trump..

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/nh/Dem

makes for some interesting reading.

For all the talks of Clinton having the Black/Latino vote sewn up, she only splits their vote with Sanders in NH (50% Clinton, 49% Sanders). The only demographic where she could be considered dominant are the over-65's (55-44) and those earning over $200k (53-46). The younger voters overwhelmingly support Sanders, so if they do turn out to vote in the other states it could be very very close.

A problem for Clinton could be these lucrative speeches she gave for Goldman Sachs...Apparently someone in the room said she sounded like a major shareholder..

For someone proposing to be anti Wall street if a transcript gets out she could be in trouble......She says she's thinking of releasing the transcripts...

That means over my dead body..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:A problem for Clinton could be these lucrative speeches she gave for Goldman Sachs...Apparently someone in the room said she sounded like a major shareholder..

For someone proposing to be anti Wall street if a transcript gets out she could be in trouble......She says she's thinking of releasing the transcripts...

That means over my dead body..

That came up in the debate on Saturday, when Bernie said she changes her views and opinions based on the Company paying her to speak. She won't release it, but while she says that, people will think she has nothing to hide.

The Clintons are very dirty....

Blackmail, lies, dodgy deals...

Bernie won't have a fair fight with a Clinton..

This was the scale of Trump's win. Trump won men, women, every age group, every ideology, people who had and people had not gone to college, and every single age bracket. And he won those groups by huge margins. Men, 3-to-1 over the second-place finisher. Women, 2-to-1. Voters under 30, 2-to-1. Nearly 4-in-10 of those who hadn't attended college -- but also a third of those who had.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/09/donald-trump-godzillas-across-new-hampshire-which-bodes-well-in-future-states/?postshare=6901455075123896&tid=ss_tw

Very dodgy, but Clinton doesnt seem to have the wit and charm her husband has which generally blinds people to a person's borderline sociopath ways. Surely that's gonna trip her up sooner or later? Bill got away with being allegedly a woman abusing, cash siphoning weed smoker because he was, real slick really. Hilary Clinton is about as slick as a back road

Duty281 wrote:This was the scale of Trump's win. Trump won men, women, every age group, every ideology, people who had and people had not gone to college, and every single age bracket. And he won those groups by huge margins. Men, 3-to-1 over the second-place finisher. Women, 2-to-1. Voters under 30, 2-to-1. Nearly 4-in-10 of those who hadn't attended college -- but also a third of those who had.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/09/donald-trump-godzillas-across-new-hampshire-which-bodes-well-in-future-states/?postshare=6901455075123896&tid=ss_tw

But he won't win the state in a million years, so this is irrelevant.

That's like quoting Sanders' figures in Alabama.

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:This was the scale of Trump's win. Trump won men, women, every age group, every ideology, people who had and people had not gone to college, and every single age bracket. And he won those groups by huge margins. Men, 3-to-1 over the second-place finisher. Women, 2-to-1. Voters under 30, 2-to-1. Nearly 4-in-10 of those who hadn't attended college -- but also a third of those who had.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/09/donald-trump-godzillas-across-new-hampshire-which-bodes-well-in-future-states/?postshare=6901455075123896&tid=ss_tw

But he won't win the state in a million years, so this is irrelevant.

That's like quoting Sanders' figures in Alabama.

That as maybe, but it's enjoyable for the period that it lasts, however fugacious.

Very few States do matter..All about Ohio..Florida and Pennsylvania..

Missouri has a great record of voting for the eventual winner..Only once in over a hundred years has the State gone to the loser..

Alistair wrote:

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Listening to Trump, he's hilarious!

"We're going to make stuff better". That's pretty much all he says. Absolutely no explanation as to how he'll do it, extremely thin on real policy and he shows a startling lack of understanding of how the political process works.

Yeah, but Obamacare went bad.  Really biggly.

'45, 35, 55, it's a mess'.

Trump's a shoe-in then isn't he? Seems to have been a recent job requirement for GOP candidates to have no idea how to string a sentence together and/or to talk bollox.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The Clintons are very dirty....

Blackmail, lies, dodgy deals...

Bernie won't have a fair fight with a Clinton..

Prove it. Just because they're smooth, doesn't make them corrupt. That said, perception is all in this race so if everyone thinks she's slime...