Pro12 run-in to 2016 playoffs and placings

Update:  After Round 21

Well you couldn't ask for a better final round to the regular season.  Every match has got something riding on it, with only two teams - Dragons and Cardiff - not able to benefit from either a play-off spot or a European Cup placing.

Glasgow now sit on top of the heap, displaying their cup-winning form of last season as they've hit the home stretch.  But they can still be overtaken by Connacht lying in second place.  Both sides want a home-semi-final let alone kudos of finishing at the top of the table.  The Sportsground will be rocking next weekend as the men from the west look to have their most successful season ever finish on a high.

Despite having more won more games than any other team in the league so far, Leinster are sitting in 3rd spot having been roundly trounced by Ulster at Ravenhill. 3 points behind Glasgow, the most they can hope for is second spot if Glasgow rule the day.  If Connacht win against Glasgow to gain 4 points and put them on 73, and Leinster get a try bonus point against Treviso, then Leinster will top the table by dint of more games won during the season.

But is a TBP or even a win against Treviso at RDS a foregone conclusion?   Connacht found out to their cost that Treviso are desperate to make the European placings, and now having got ahead of Zebre, want to remain there.   Zebre have a home match against the Dragons who have nothing to play for but pride.   Both teams have just won 4 matches this season, but Dragons have gained 10 LBPs in the course of the season.

Right in the middle of the table lies a double Welsh-Irish battle - with lots at stake for all four teams - Ospreys v Ulster and Munster v Scarlets. A win for Ospreys would put them level with Munster on 58 - although Munster have won 12 games to Ospreys 11.   It would also do their Welsh colleagues in Scarlets a favour who if they win their match could take the last play-off spot from Ulster.   And in turn, if Scarlets beat Munster, then Ospreys could go through into the last European spot, as their points difference would be better than Munster's.   Even if Munster beat Scarlets with a TBP, they can't overtake them in 5th place as Scarlets have two more wins than them currently.

Lastly, Edinburgh will be lying in wait, hoping for Ulster and Scarlets to do the business, and hope they can somehow get a TBP win against Cardiff who were knocked out of the running with their loss to Ospreys at the weekend.   5 points for Edinburgh would put them on 58 points equal to Munster, with 12 wins apiece but Edinburgh with the better points difference.

Think that covers all of the possibilities.   But feel free to add any in.

As of today, there are 4 or 5 matches left of the regular season and six teams who have a reasonable shot at placing in the top 4.

Which do people think that the four qualifiers will be based on current form and run-in?

1. Connacht 

Played 18, Won 13, Drawn 0, Lost 5, 63 points

Games Left:
Ulster (A)
Munster (H)
Treviso (A)
Glasgow (H)

2. Leinster 

Played 18, Won 13, Drawn 0, Lost 5, 59 points

Games Left:
Munster (H)
Edinburgh (H)
Ulster (A)
Treviso (H)

3. Scarlets 

Played 18, Won 13, Drawn 0, Lost 5, 57 points

Games Left:
Cardiff (H)
Glasgow (H)
Dragons (A)
Munster (A)

4. Munster 

Played 18, Won 11, Drawn 0, Lost 7, 52 points

Games Left:
Leinster (A)
Connacht (A)
Edinburgh (H)
Scarlets (H)

5. Ulster 

Played 18, Won 10, Drawn 0, Lost 8, 51 points

Games Left:
Connacht (H)
Zebre (A)
Leinster (H)
Ospreys (A)

6. Glasgow 

Played 17, Won 10, Drawn 1, Lost 6, 51 points

Games Left:
Treviso (A)
Zebre (A)
Scarlets (A)
Zebre (H)
Connacht (H)

Ulster and Munster will lose out but will secure European places

Glasgow really do look like they have the best run in and unless the Italian teams really turn themselves around and quickly they should have 12-15 points in the bag.

Its along season, especially for all the internationals who played in the WC and a lot is going to come down to who has the legs and who can peak at the right time.

You would have fancied Connacht for that but playing in the Europeans might cost the as they are the only side left doing that. A weeks rest at this stage will do wonders for any team!

Well the Ospreys are in the minor Euro competition next year. Good luck to the Scarlets but I don't think they are consistent enough to win anything.

Cardiff would need to win the rest of their games and hope Glasgow and Edinburgh lose at least two games each, can't see it happening although stranger things have happened.

I always thought 6th place would go to an Italian side as far as The Champions cup was concerned, or is that the 'floating' 7th place?

BigGee wrote:Glasgow really do look like they have the best run in and unless the Italian teams really turn themselves around and quickly they should have 12-15 points in the bag.

Its along season, especially for all the internationals who played in the WC and a lot is going to come down to who has the legs and who can peak at the right time.

You would have fancied Connacht for that but playing in the Europeans might cost the as they are the only side left doing that. A weeks rest at this stage will do wonders for any team!

I have been thinking about that about Connacht and their away trip to Grenoble, i really think this could be their year in the pro 12, next season they will be marginally weaker, losing players such as Henshaw, Ah You and Muldowney. I think they should prioritise the pro 12 and send their seconds in the ECC tournament which lets be honest has limited value.

Glasgow play Connacht away.

Two very tough away games for Glasgow - Scarlets and Connacht. If Ulster can win their remaining 4 games, and Glasgow drop those 2, then it's possible that Ulster just pips Glasgow for 4th. We would need to beat both Connacht and Leinster at home, take 5 points from Zebre away and beat Ospreys away in the final game. Not that I think this will happen, but it's possible.

Dragons v Scarlets, although technically a home game for the Men of Gwent, is at a 'neutral' venue (Principality Stadium) on "Judgement Day"

VinceWLB wrote:

BigGee wrote:Glasgow really do look like they have the best run in and unless the Italian teams really turn themselves around and quickly they should have 12-15 points in the bag.

Its along season, especially for all the internationals who played in the WC and a lot is going to come down to who has the legs and who can peak at the right time.

You would have fancied Connacht for that but playing in the Europeans might cost the as they are the only side left doing that. A weeks rest at this stage will do wonders for any team!

I have been thinking about that about Connacht and their away trip to Grenoble, i really think this could be their year in the pro 12, next season they will be marginally weaker, losing players such as Henshaw, Ah You and Muldowney. I think they should prioritise the pro 12 and send their seconds in the ECC tournament which lets be honest has limited value.

That won't happen though, nor should it. A similar thing last year with Edinburgh, that they should prioritise a top 6 place over a cup final place. You can't disrespect a competition like that and its ok for us to say its not that important, to the Connacht players, who may never get another shot at any kind of final, you can bet it means an awful lot!

It will be very difficult to play on two fronts though, especially if they do make the final. Grenoble will be up for it at home and it will surely be a bruising game with some casualties.

I agree with Vince. I think Connacht have a real shot at winning the Pro12 if they finish in the top 2. If they focus on Pro12, I think they will.

Munchkin wrote:Glasgow play Connacht away.

Two very tough away games for Glasgow - Scarlets and Connacht. If Ulster can win their remaining 4 games, and Glasgow drop those 2, then it's possible that Ulster just pips Glasgow for 4th. We would need to beat both Connacht and Leinster at home, take 5 points from Zebre away and beat Ospreys away in the final game. Not that I think this will happen, but it's possible.

The way Ulster are playing I can see them losing at least 3 games and Zebre being a struggle

marty2086 wrote:

Munchkin wrote:Glasgow play Connacht away.

Two very tough away games for Glasgow - Scarlets and Connacht. If Ulster can win their remaining 4 games, and Glasgow drop those 2, then it's possible that Ulster just pips Glasgow for 4th. We would need to beat both Connacht and Leinster at home, take 5 points from Zebre away and beat Ospreys away in the final game. Not that I think this will happen, but it's possible.

The way Ulster are playing I can see them losing at least 3 games and Zebre being a struggle

We haven't been great, but think we will beat Connacht in a very tight game, and take 5 from Zebre. Playing Ospreys the week following our game against Leinster is the one I think we will drop. You could be right, but I predict Ulster will win 3 from 4, and finish 5th.

Sniff!

Sorry, PH, didn't see your thread earlier  

From an Ulster point of view I would be more wary of Cardiff than Edinburgh. I think Edinburgh will lose away to Munster and Leinster, with Cardiff losing to Scarlets, and possibly Edinburgh. Don't think either will make top 6, but Cardiff the most likely of the two, in my opinion.

With Glasgow claiming victory over Ulster, I would think Glasgow will finish in 4th. It's not a given as both Munster and Ulster could pip them, but don't think they will. Munster have two very tough games away to Leinster and Connacht. I can see Munster losing them both. Ulster have tough games against both these teams as well, but we get them at home, and think home advantage might just be enough to put them away (I hope).

For Ulster to take the forth spot we would need to win all four games, and hope that Glasgow drop points to both Scarlets and Connacht. I think Glasgow might lose to these sides, but I don't see Ulster beating Ospreys away in their final game. Who knows though? Stranger things have happened.

Looks like the top 3 all have favourable run-ins. The only change I see possible there is perhaps Scarlets getting 2nd spot. As for fourth spot, I've got a feeling that Glasgow might nick it. I'd be surprised if they allowed this season to be the first they haven't made the play-offs with that run-in. Blues might give a good account of themselves, but they'll be one of three Welsh teams outside the top 6.

How do Connacht hàve a favourable run in? Leinster Munster Ulster and Glasgow are 4 out of their 5 final games. Plus they have European cup on the middle of that hopefully they stay in the top two.


Glasgow will definitely finish strong. Should be getting 15 points from those Italian games.

Connacht have just played Leinster. They do have a tough run in, but have a chance of beating Munster and Glasgow at home. They are also still in the Challenge Cup, so have more rugby to play than most of the other Pro12 teams. Think they should put all their effort into making sure of a top 2 finish though.

The last two results for Glasgow give them a shot at the playoffs and the really crucial game is Scarlets away. Take anything from that game plus 15 points from the Italians and that should be enough.

The most crucial aspect of that last game against Connacht may be psychological. Glasgow could play them at the Sportsground on the last league game of the season and then at the same place the following week in the playoffs.

Same thing happened to Glasgow against Ulster last season and there's no doubt that winning the first game gave the Soapdodgers a real fillip for the knock-out match.

Connacht have two home games, plus an Italian team. Given their form I'd back them to win both their home games and get 5 points against Treviso. To me that seems favourable to Connacht. Their rise to the top has been a joy to watch.

George Carlin wrote:The last two results for Glasgow give them a shot at the playoffs and the really crucial game is Scarlets away. Take anything from that game plus 15 points from the Italians and that should be enough.

The most crucial aspect of that last game against Connacht may be psychological. Glasgow could play them at the Sportsground on the last league game of the season and then at the same place the following week in the playoffs.

Same thing happened to Glasgow against Ulster last season and there's no doubt that winning the first game gave the Soapdodgers a real fillip for the knock-out match.

Only this time it is Glasgow playing away. I can see it being a tight game, but I would give the edge to Connacht, at home.

Munchkin wrote:

George Carlin wrote:The last two results for Glasgow give them a shot at the playoffs and the really crucial game is Scarlets away. Take anything from that game plus 15 points from the Italians and that should be enough.

The most crucial aspect of that last game against Connacht may be psychological. Glasgow could play them at the Sportsground on the last league game of the season and then at the same place the following week in the playoffs.

Same thing happened to Glasgow against Ulster last season and there's no doubt that winning the first game gave the Soapdodgers a real fillip for the knock-out match.

Only this time it is Glasgow playing away. I can see it being a tight game, but I would give the edge to Connacht, at home.

Yes, so would I at the moment as they are in a groove at present.

However, the thing is (and it's almost unique to Glasgow) is that only at this late point in the season is Glasgow getting all of its first team together again. That means it's hard to generalize about past results being an indicator of future ones.

First, the World Cup where they lost more players than any other NH club, then the winter period where they had masses of injuries, then the Six Nations where they were again plundered. I have to say that the game against Ulster last weekend was the first time that the first choice 23 from last season was together again. Lots of players (Dunbar, Bennett, Strauss, Naka) were rusty as hell but still started to put together some quality play and it was enough to pull away against a very good Ulster side.

So this strange confluence of events means that if it came to the playoffs with Glasgow sneaking into 4th; this is one of those years where 1st may well fall to 4th. It's been a strange year for Soapdodgers fans with q patchwork quilt of new names and shuffled packs - the largest squad that the franchise has ever had.

Don't get me wrong - I am not underestimating the scale of the task. Connacht have cohesion, momentum and confidence and will certainly be favorites on the last week.

The real key issue for me is can Edinburgh make it into the top six - especially without displacing Glasgow I thiunk they can but we need better than we showed today

TJ wrote:The real key issue for me is can Edinburgh make it into the top six - especially without displacing Glasgow  I thiunk they can but we need better than we showed today

For Edinburgh to get top 6 they will almost certainly need to take points off from Leinster and/or Munster, that is only going to be to Glasgow's advantage. If Edinburgh make it, then Glasgow will be there with them.

I hope so it would be a good boost for Scottish Rugby. However I would put Edinburghs chances as less than 50 / 50

BigGee wrote:

TJ wrote:The real key issue for me is can Edinburgh make it into the top six - especially without displacing Glasgow  I thiunk they can but we need better than we showed today

For Edinburgh to get top 6 they will almost certainly need to take points off from Leinster and/or Munster, that is only going to be to Glasgow's advantage. If Edinburgh make it, then Glasgow will be there with them.

They also need to play a lot better than they did today against "the 3rd Italian team"

Scarlets and Munster don't have Italian teams to play the rest of the 5 teams do.

https://www.606v2.com/t62594-pro12-run-in-to-2016-playoffs-and-placings

Can you do your merging thing, George?

Griff wrote:

BigGee wrote:

TJ wrote:The real key issue for me is can Edinburgh make it into the top six - especially without displacing Glasgow  I thiunk they can but we need better than we showed today

For Edinburgh to get top 6 they will almost certainly need to take points off from Leinster and/or Munster, that is only going to be to Glasgow's advantage. If Edinburgh make it, then Glasgow will be there with them.

They also need to play a lot better than they did today against "the 3rd Italian team"

It is hard to believe they can play much worse!

Pot Hale wrote:https://www.606v2.com/t62594-pro12-run-in-to-2016-playoffs-and-placings

Can you do your merging thing, George?

All done.

BBC reporting Scarlets as 'cementing 3rd place'. Without doing the maths, and assuming the wording is not misleading (but knowing the Beeb they could have mistyped), does that then suggest that the top 3 are uncatchable and only one place remains (for the playoffs)?

Think Glasgow will get 3rd at the least. The key game is Scarlets away and they should be able to win that with all their players back. Not a guarantee though.

Glasgow's biggest problems are in the scrum and only Connacht look to have the kind of pack to bring that to light. Think 14 from Italian sides and 5 from Scarlets/Connacht matches at a min. 70 will be enough for 3rd if they beat Scarlets/lose to Connacht and 4th if they lose to Scarlets/beat Connacht.

As for cementing 3rd, Glasgow should be at most 2 points behind Scarlets after the game in hand and have the chance to play them after so the BBC has not looked closely at the schedule. Would Scarlets fans prefer away to Connacht or Leinster? Cause 4th might be going away to the Sportsground and 3rd to the RDS quite easily....

From the Beeb:

"Centre Josh Matavesi's try had given Ospreys an early lead before DTH van der Merwe replied for Scarlets.

The result cements Scarlets' position in the top three, and leaves the Ospreys in ninth place - a long way off European Champions Cup qualification."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/35873236

Maybe they mean than Ospreys can't catch them as next Welsh region, but Blues are current.y 2nd region so not sure they meant that,

Yep, looking at the maths and standings I think the Beeb need to reword their match report. They're far from safe. Only 5 points clear of Munster!

Griff wrote:BBC reporting Scarlets as 'cementing 3rd place'. Without doing the maths, and assuming the wording is not misleading (but knowing the Beeb they could have mistyped), does that then suggest that the top 3 are uncatchable and only one place remains (for the playoffs)?

I don't think we have even cemented our place as the best region yet. Theoretically, if we lose all our remaining games and the blues win all bar the Ospreys game with four try bps, and the osprey win all theirs with four try bps, we could end up 3rd region. I know it is unlikely, but it is still possible.

By 'cementing their position', I think they just mean they've made their position more solid and not that they've guaranteed top three. It's poorly worded.

Hazel Sapling wrote:Think Glasgow will get 3rd at the least. The key game is Scarlets away and they should be able to win that with all their players back. Not a guarantee though.

Glasgow's biggest problems are in the scrum and only Connacht look to have the kind of pack to bring that to light. Think 14 from Italian sides and 5 from Scarlets/Connacht matches at a min. 70 will be enough for 3rd if they beat Scarlets/lose to Connacht and 4th if they lose to Scarlets/beat Connacht.

As for cementing 3rd, Glasgow should be at most 2 points behind Scarlets after the game in hand and have the chance to play them after so the BBC has not looked closely at the schedule. Would Scarlets fans prefer away to Connacht or Leinster? Cause 4th might be going away to the Sportsground and 3rd to the RDS quite easily....

Not sure what that means when we bossed Leinster and Ulster in the front row 2 weeks in a row ? Also ruled lineout so happy to disagree with you there too if thats what you were getting at ? We have our big guns back with some very useful replacements to call upon - i.e. the ones who did for Leinster. The Warriors are taking a huge squad to Italy for the back to back games so will be interesting to see who gets on the plane.

BBC rugby website, re rugby Pro 12, is and always has been an utter joke (a bit like the BBC tbh:roll: ). They know feck -all about Pro 12 rugby and I get the impression they don't really care. Exception re BBC as a whole, being Alba, and Hugh Dan the Heedrum Hodrum Man. Brlliant as ever on Friday esp. re Tommy Seymour's try .

Slainte HD

I think Glasgow will do it (i.e. make the play-offs). Not only do they have momentum but also have three games against Italian sides: could easily be 15 points right there.

I don't see Edinburgh doing it (making the top 6). I think we'll take 4 points of Zebre and Cardiff at Murrayfield (our backs are not in the zone for scoring tries so 5 pointers are out of the question) but that won't be enough. It's going to come down to Munster away and I don't see Edinburgh winning that. I don't give us a prayer against Leinster. We've just dropped too many points this season.

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:  Exception re BBC as a whole, being Alba, and Hugh Dan the Heedrum Hodrum Man.   Brlliant as ever on Friday esp. re Tommy Seymour's try .  

Slainte HD

He is brilliant - I really enjoy the Alba rugby shows - and I bet the Heedrum Hodrum man is amused by his rise from total obscurity to a cult figure.

I reckon we need 68 points to get 4th spot. If, and its not guaranteed as the tries have not exactly flowed this season, we get 15 v Treviso & Zebre x2 giving us 66, then we need something from Scarlets and Connacht. 2 LBPs perhaps !!! Who knows ? Whatever Big Ts 80+ try at Ravenhill and Hoggy's spectacular, monster kick on Friday could be very important. Luvvies could do us a favour by upping their game v Munster and Leinster but on the evidence of yesterday not very likely. Dickinson and Nel look done in tbh.

From a Glasgow perspective, I think things are coming together at the right time. Players back from injury, no more international commitments, Scotstoun becoming (sort of) playable again. Three games against the Italian teams should add further momentum and then its about trying to pick up points against the Scarlets and Connacht, which will undoubtedly be tough.

It will be interesting to see how Toonie manages his squad over the next two games, Hogg especially has played a lot of rugby, I expect to see some canny rotation and the Tombola getting an extra spin out in Italy.

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:

Hazel Sapling wrote:Think Glasgow will get 3rd at the least. The key game is Scarlets away and they should be able to win that with all their players back. Not a guarantee though.

Glasgow's biggest problems are in the scrum and only Connacht look to have the kind of pack to bring that to light. Think 14 from Italian sides and 5 from Scarlets/Connacht matches at a min. 70 will be enough for 3rd if they beat Scarlets/lose to Connacht and 4th if they lose to Scarlets/beat Connacht.

As for cementing 3rd, Glasgow should be at most 2 points behind Scarlets after the game in hand and have the chance to play them after so the BBC has not looked closely at the schedule. Would Scarlets fans prefer away to Connacht or Leinster? Cause 4th might be going away to the Sportsground and 3rd to the RDS quite easily....

Not sure what that means when we bossed Leinster and Ulster in the front row 2 weeks in a row ?  Also ruled lineout so happy to disagree with you there too if thats what you were getting at ?

Must have missed that game, the Glasgow v Ulster game I saw had parity in the set piece.

The Great Aukster wrote:

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:

Hazel Sapling wrote:Think Glasgow will get 3rd at the least. The key game is Scarlets away and they should be able to win that with all their players back. Not a guarantee though.

Glasgow's biggest problems are in the scrum and only Connacht look to have the kind of pack to bring that to light. Think 14 from Italian sides and 5 from Scarlets/Connacht matches at a min. 70 will be enough for 3rd if they beat Scarlets/lose to Connacht and 4th if they lose to Scarlets/beat Connacht.

As for cementing 3rd, Glasgow should be at most 2 points behind Scarlets after the game in hand and have the chance to play them after so the BBC has not looked closely at the schedule. Would Scarlets fans prefer away to Connacht or Leinster? Cause 4th might be going away to the Sportsground and 3rd to the RDS quite easily....

Not sure what that means when we bossed Leinster and Ulster in the front row 2 weeks in a row ?  Also ruled lineout so happy to disagree with you there too if thats what you were getting at ?

Must have missed that game, the Glasgow v Ulster game I saw had parity in the set piece.

Yes, the stability of the scrums on Friday night was great to watch. Except of course for the scrum that yielded the last minute penalty. Henderson is a great player, but he essentially doesn't push that whole scrum.

The Great Aukster wrote:

21st Century Schizoid Man wrote:

Hazel Sapling wrote:Think Glasgow will get 3rd at the least. The key game is Scarlets away and they should be able to win that with all their players back. Not a guarantee though.

Glasgow's biggest problems are in the scrum and only Connacht look to have the kind of pack to bring that to light. Think 14 from Italian sides and 5 from Scarlets/Connacht matches at a min. 70 will be enough for 3rd if they beat Scarlets/lose to Connacht and 4th if they lose to Scarlets/beat Connacht.

As for cementing 3rd, Glasgow should be at most 2 points behind Scarlets after the game in hand and have the chance to play them after so the BBC has not looked closely at the schedule. Would Scarlets fans prefer away to Connacht or Leinster? Cause 4th might be going away to the Sportsground and 3rd to the RDS quite easily....

Not sure what that means when we bossed Leinster and Ulster in the front row 2 weeks in a row ?  Also ruled lineout so happy to disagree with you there too if thats what you were getting at ?

Must have missed that game, the Glasgow v Ulster game I saw had parity in the set piece.

I would say Glasgow edged it - but did not dominate

EST wrote:From a Glasgow perspective, I think things are coming together at the right time.  Players back from injury, no more international commitments, Scotstoun becoming (sort of) playable again. Three games against the Italian teams should add further momentum and then its about trying to pick up points against the Scarlets and Connacht, which will undoubtedly be tough.

It will be interesting to see how Toonie manages his squad over the next two games, Hogg especially has played a lot of rugby, I expect to see some canny rotation and the Tombola getting an extra spin out in Italy.

He's got Murchie fit I think so I'd imagine he'll get a game at some point. Pretty handy replacement. I suspect/hope we're in Sean Lamont last hurrah territory as well so he'll throw everything at this end of season.

funnyExiledScot wrote:

EST wrote:From a Glasgow perspective, I think things are coming together at the right time.  Players back from injury, no more international commitments, Scotstoun becoming (sort of) playable again. Three games against the Italian teams should add further momentum and then its about trying to pick up points against the Scarlets and Connacht, which will undoubtedly be tough.

It will be interesting to see how Toonie manages his squad over the next two games, Hogg especially has played a lot of rugby, I expect to see some canny rotation and the Tombola getting an extra spin out in Italy.

He's got Murchie fit I think so I'd imagine he'll get a game at some point. Pretty handy replacement. I suspect/hope we're in Sean Lamont last hurrah territory as well so he'll throw everything at this end of season.

I think you are right fEs, I would almost be tempted to give Hogg the two games in Italy off; Murchie as a solid (if utterly unspectacular) replacement. The Lamont one is interesting, played the whole game on Friday night (I think) and again didn't let anybody down. The two Italian games are tailor made for Big T to run over some Italians low on morale, so i would mix and match him, Lamont, the Selkirk Pixie and Hughes and give Seymour some down time.

EST wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:

EST wrote:From a Glasgow perspective, I think things are coming together at the right time.  Players back from injury, no more international commitments, Scotstoun becoming (sort of) playable again. Three games against the Italian teams should add further momentum and then its about trying to pick up points against the Scarlets and Connacht, which will undoubtedly be tough.

It will be interesting to see how Toonie manages his squad over the next two games, Hogg especially has played a lot of rugby, I expect to see some canny rotation and the Tombola getting an extra spin out in Italy.

He's got Murchie fit I think so I'd imagine he'll get a game at some point. Pretty handy replacement. I suspect/hope we're in Sean Lamont last hurrah territory as well so he'll throw everything at this end of season.

I think you are right fEs,  I would almost be tempted to give Hogg the two games in Italy off;  Murchie as a solid (if utterly unspectacular) replacement.  The Lamont one is interesting, played the whole game on Friday night (I think) and again didn't let anybody down.  The two Italian games are tailor made for Big T to run over some Italians low on morale, so i would mix and match him, Lamont, the Selkirk Pixie and Hughes and give Seymour some down time.

Lee Jones was my MoM v Leinster 2 weeks ago and is on great form.   If the warriors are taking 30 odd players to Italy then I fully expect the Toonster to take him too.

Connacht Leinster Glasgow to make the top 3, (order prob, Leinster and winner of Connacht V Glasgow getting 2nd loser 3rd)

Scarlets, Munster and Ulster to fight it out for 4th

Seams reasonable

Just read that Connacht have 3 Fly Halves out for the next 2 weeks at least.

Another injury crisis for them and at such an important part of the season.

I was just thinking if Ulster lost 3 flyhalves we'd be down to playing Winsor and I'd have no hope of reaching the play offs.

Hopefully Connacht can cope with it for the Munster and Ulster games and one or two of the three come back for the final run in.

At this stage I'd give up on the European Rugby Challenge Cup put out the Connacht Eagles in this game, as the only positive about it is a place in the RCC and Connacht have pretty much wrapped this up. Silverware would be nice but making the playoffs and having a better seeding for the RCC next year are much more important.

Gonna be a tight run in and some odd similarities to the premier league actually. Connacht (Leicester)out on top, more established teams (Arsenal, Man united, Man City, Tottenham) with mixed form all season, last seasons winners Glasgow (Chelsea) way down the ladder for most of the season but climbing back. Weird!

Personally I think Connacht will finish 2nd, Leinster 1st, Glasgow 3rd and Scarlets 4th.

Leinster vs Scarlets final.