Pro12 run-in to 2016 playoffs and placings

First topic message reminder :

Update:  After Round 21

Well you couldn't ask for a better final round to the regular season.  Every match has got something riding on it, with only two teams - Dragons and Cardiff - not able to benefit from either a play-off spot or a European Cup placing.

Glasgow now sit on top of the heap, displaying their cup-winning form of last season as they've hit the home stretch.  But they can still be overtaken by Connacht lying in second place.  Both sides want a home-semi-final let alone kudos of finishing at the top of the table.  The Sportsground will be rocking next weekend as the men from the west look to have their most successful season ever finish on a high.

Despite having more won more games than any other team in the league so far, Leinster are sitting in 3rd spot having been roundly trounced by Ulster at Ravenhill. 3 points behind Glasgow, the most they can hope for is second spot if Glasgow rule the day.  If Connacht win against Glasgow to gain 4 points and put them on 73, and Leinster get a try bonus point against Treviso, then Leinster will top the table by dint of more games won during the season.

But is a TBP or even a win against Treviso at RDS a foregone conclusion?   Connacht found out to their cost that Treviso are desperate to make the European placings, and now having got ahead of Zebre, want to remain there.   Zebre have a home match against the Dragons who have nothing to play for but pride.   Both teams have just won 4 matches this season, but Dragons have gained 10 LBPs in the course of the season.

Right in the middle of the table lies a double Welsh-Irish battle - with lots at stake for all four teams - Ospreys v Ulster and Munster v Scarlets. A win for Ospreys would put them level with Munster on 58 - although Munster have won 12 games to Ospreys 11.   It would also do their Welsh colleagues in Scarlets a favour who if they win their match could take the last play-off spot from Ulster.   And in turn, if Scarlets beat Munster, then Ospreys could go through into the last European spot, as their points difference would be better than Munster's.   Even if Munster beat Scarlets with a TBP, they can't overtake them in 5th place as Scarlets have two more wins than them currently.

Lastly, Edinburgh will be lying in wait, hoping for Ulster and Scarlets to do the business, and hope they can somehow get a TBP win against Cardiff who were knocked out of the running with their loss to Ospreys at the weekend.   5 points for Edinburgh would put them on 58 points equal to Munster, with 12 wins apiece but Edinburgh with the better points difference.

Think that covers all of the possibilities.   But feel free to add any in.

Kingshu wrote:Connacht Leinster Glasgow to make the top 3, (order prob, Leinster and winner of Connacht V Glasgow getting 2nd loser 3rd)

Scarlets, Munster and Ulster to fight it out for 4th

Seams reasonable

Very reasonable.

Of course there is a scenario where bot Connacht and Glasgow could finish 2nd and 1st respectively. Leinster get and lbp in Belfast and 5 v Treviso in Dublin with Glasgow and Connacht taking 5 each v Zebre and Treviso. Then in the Galway shoot-out Glasgow get a 5 pointer but Connacht get a lbp and a 4T bp. Hence:-

Glasgow top and Connacht 2nd

Gibson wrote:

Kingshu wrote:Connacht Leinster Glasgow to make the top 3, (order prob, Leinster and winner of Connacht V Glasgow getting 2nd loser 3rd)

Scarlets, Munster and Ulster to fight it out for 4th

Seams reasonable

Very reasonable.

Gibbo?

George Carlin wrote:

Gibson wrote:

Kingshu wrote:Connacht Leinster Glasgow to make the top 3, (order prob, Leinster and winner of Connacht V Glasgow getting 2nd loser 3rd)

Scarlets, Munster and Ulster to fight it out for 4th

Seams reasonable

Very reasonable.

Gibbo?

Gibbo??
Are you back?
Please be back!!!!

Gibson wrote:Leinster v Connacht Final. Meant to be. I'm there.

Think we may get overrun by sexy rugby. How ironic is that? I just love watching them play.

Logic tells us that Glasgow are the strongest team in the competition and on a form-roll. We'll take em out I reckon.

Connacht would be righteous  PRO12 Champions. Be superb for our league and a large  wake-up call for our lazy, backward-thinking, money at all costs, Home Unions.

Open, no-fear, heads-up rugby. Well ahead of  the dire-to-watch, moneyed-up Frogs and English.

I'm an incurable romantic. Shoot me.

Believe.

Believe has returned.

Connacht lose to Treviso.

Glasgow put 70 points on Zebre with almost their entire first team rested.

The last game of the season between these two is going to be fascinating.

Y
Round 22 is looking tasty already. 

Treviso against Leinster.   Do they figure Zebre are bunched or need to play again like this evening?  Zebre are at home against the pish Dragons though.  Could go either way.  

Ulster and Leinster still to decide each other's fate. 

Glasgow sitting pretty on top of the pile but heading to the Wesht for a game of their lives. Connacht need to win - badly. 

Lots more to add in after tomorrow.

This last weekend is going to be absolute madness.  Munster vs Scarlets who are currently tied for 5th....1st place Glasgow away to 2nd place Connacht.  With Ulster vs Leinster and the Welsh derby day to come tomorrow.  Even Treviso and Zebre have something to play for.  Am I right in saying that the only team out of the running for the Champions Cup are Dragons and one of Treviso and Zebre?  As even the Ospreys in 9th can theoretically take 10 points from their last two games and if Munster take nothing against the Scarlets they would qualify....?  Add to that the fight for the playoff.....this is great stuff, really great stuff.

15:00 GMT next Saturday - I will buy a selection of the finest craft beers, a bottle single malt Irish and my favourite strawberry yoghurt and cereal bar flavoured e-liquid for my vaporizer (feel free to question my masculinity at this point), with a 6 way accumulator on my Bet365 account and let the good times roll

Treviso beat Connacht, what's that all about?

mikey_dragon wrote:Treviso beat Connacht, what's that all about?

Lam rotated a lot of players. He has been doing it all season and its worked well for them. Tonight it didn't work, its easy to criticise him for it, but he is building a squad, in fact the way he has approached this season he is almost creating two 15's for Connacht whilst at the same time sitting at the top of the table. With the Challenge Cup gone, he will pour everything he has now into beating Glasgow in Galway and if Ulster beat Leinster tomorrow, they will still take first place.

Yeah, you can't be too critical of Connacht or Lam.  There is much talk of hoped for fairy-tales at the end, but most of us know they're hard to come by in reality and take a lot of plain hard effort at the end.

The Connacht season shouldn't be judged by winning the thing - although I'm sure like all teams that's still the goal for Lam.  They may slide away from that final prize at the end but it will still have been an achievement to have come so far, to get to the Champions Cup without any help from their big brothers, and to have played the way they have done.

Lam is weighing up his strategy on the way in and decided he had to do some risking to give him the best shot at it.  They're still the outsider team by a long shot, in amongst some seasonal top flight basterdes.

Artful_Dodger wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:Treviso beat Connacht, what's that all about?

Lam rotated a lot of players.  He has been doing it all season and its worked well for them.  Tonight it didn't work, its easy to criticise him for it, but he is building a squad, in fact the way he has approached this season he is almost creating two 15's for Connacht whilst at the same time sitting at the top of the table.  With the Challenge Cup gone, he will pour everything he has now into beating Glasgow in Galway and if Ulster beat Leinster tomorrow, they will still take first place.  

I have noticed and it makes it difficult to tell what Connacht first XV is. Connacht certainly haven't dropped off in tempo whilst rotating though.

OP updated after this weekend's Round 21 matches.

Every game counts next week for something. Anayi will be grinning.

PH - good synopsis

(you might want to check Edinburgh's points though)

The Great Aukster wrote:PH - good synopsis

(you might want to check Edinburgh's points though)

Ok. They are on 53 points. A TBP win would put them on 58.

Pot Hale wrote:

The Great Aukster wrote:PH - good synopsis

(you might want to check Edinburgh's points though)

Ok. They are on 53 points. A TBP win would put them on 58.

So how do they get to 68 as posted in the OP!

The Great Aukster wrote:

Pot Hale wrote:

The Great Aukster wrote:PH - good synopsis

(you might want to check Edinburgh's points though)

Ok. They are on 53 points. A TBP win would put them on 58.

So how do they get to 68 as posted in the OP!

So you could have just said I made a typo in the OP.

Hang on - you made the typo, then didn't bother to check what you had written, then accuse me of not being succinct as if "check Edinburgh's points" is less clear than you "made a typo in the OP".

I'll think twice before complimenting a post of yours in the future.

The Great Aukster wrote:
I'll think twice before complimenting a post of yours in the future.

Get her...

The Great Aukster wrote:Hang on - you made the typo, then didn't bother to check what you had written, then accuse me of not being succinct as if "check Edinburgh's points" is less clear than you "made a typo in the OP".

I'll think twice before complimenting a post of yours in the future.

It is less clear. That's the point, ya grumpy git. I didn't say you weren't being succinct. Just vague.....

Everyone gets excitedly cocky when they stuff old Leinster, eh???

Down! Down boys! Yiv had yisser meat and bones. Time for a kip to digest it all.

Apologies PH, I hadn't realised how much easier it is scanning through 500+ words for a typo than be directed specifically to the mistake.

Anyway Notch is right (as usual) it is much more conducive to a friendly forum to call people names than observe antiquated social niceties. Thanks for the lesson, I'll try to bear that in mind in future.

The Great Aukster wrote:Apologies PH, I hadn't realised how much easier it is scanning through 500+ words for a typo than be directed specifically to the mistake.

Anyway Notch is right (as usual) it is much more conducive to a friendly forum to call people names than observe antiquated social niceties. Thanks for the lesson, I'll try to bear that in mind in future.

No need for apologies, as no harm or offence committed, GA.

Calling people names like 'grumpy git' is half the fun on this forum. The other half is seeing whether people take it seriously or not, and can respond in kind.

Nice summary. Thanks. Ya grumpy old gits

TJ wrote:Nice summary.  Thanks.  Ya grumpy old gits

See? That's much more like it. Thanks youngfla'

Well, best of luck to you all out there today.

Right, lets do it!

7-7 in Swansea
7-3 to Munster in Limerick

Ulster and Ospreys are both looking to attack from everywhere. It would be incredibly entertaining if I wasn't so tense!

Top notch try from munster

Ulster score their second after a superb line by... Rory Best?! :rem:

Ospreys 7-14 Ulster

Munster living a very charmed life. Scarlets have been better in pretty much every aspect of the game. A beautiful piece of individual skill (whilst on the back foot) is all that Munster have done so far. Scarlets handling letting them down.

Great stuff Ulster

Connacht still leading against Glasgow after a lovely close-in piece of attacking play, finished off by Bundee Aki.

And just like that, Munster get their first real attacking platform and score. 14-6 after 26mins.

Iain Henderson is finally looking like his old, super physical self which is good news from an Ireland PoV.

Ospreys are winning the penalty count and have worked themselves into good positions but we've won several turnovers deep in our own 22. Good work from Henderson especially.

Leinster putting the hammer down at the RDS - 17-0 up now.

As expected, Zebre have turned on the pressure against Dragons and now lead 17-3. They're on course to overtake Treviso and get the Euro spot.

Rory Scannell gets over for Munster and it's 14-6 to Munster against Scarlets.

Penalty for Ospreys 5m out from Ulster line.

They go for scrum.

They win it, Ulster defend like mad and win a penalty to relieve pressure.

Scarlets kick another penalty and close the gap to 5 points on Munster at Thomond.

14-9.

Edinburgh got an early burst against Cardiff, but the Blues have clawed back some of the deficit, it's now 12-7.

Munster, when the get possession, look decent but other than that its all the Scarlets. Munster indiscipline costing them but Scarlets handling costing them.

14-9 34mins

Matavesi scores for Ospreys, Biggar adds the extras- it's 14-14.

And Ospreys stretch the Ulster defensive line. Matavesi dummies two of the Ulster players and manages to get his outstretched arm and ball on the line.

All square at 14-14

Connacht have been unlucky with two try attempts, getting pinged at the last moment.

Still 7-0. McGinty improving game by game and starring the side well. Ironic that he's already capped for USA.

What a try by Trimble!!!! Unbelievable running, kick and recollect

Scarlets fans must be going spare and pulling their hair out. So many handling errors in excellent positions. To be fair, its the handling errors that are keeping Munster in the game I feel.