Monte Carlo Masters

First topic message reminder :

The draw is out for the third Masters tournament of the year:
http://www.protennislive.com/posting/2016/410/mds.pdf

Quarter finals if the top 8 seeds make it through:
Djokovic - Ferrer
Federer - Tsonga
Wawrinka - Nadal
Berdych - Murray

Federer opens against Bellucci or Garcia Lopez then likely Bautista Agut to get to the quarters. Not too bad a test after 2 months off.

Nadal has a really tough draw - probably R2 Rosol, R3 Thiem, QF Wawrinka (or Simon/Dimitrov), SF Murray (or Berdych/Raonic). If he can make it through that lot to the final, perhaps he will have the form to beat Djokovic there.

Fair play to you Craig for seeing the positives so clearly, but I can't help but feel frustrated. He just can't sustain his best anymore. We've seen it numerous times against Novak in the last 15 months or so. Now against Rafa. He had his foot on his throat and for some reason took it off.

Andy v Stan is Hewitt v Safin. Andy puts himself in position to win a lot more. Whereas with Stan you need a week in to see if he can be bothered to play.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Jermaine2015 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Jermaine2015 wrote:Murray's not a true contender for the French open. His meek collapse shows he unable to maintain a consistent level throughout a match. It's nigh on impossible to try and paint the lines relentlessly

We'd better rule out the reigning champion as a contender as well then considering how much more of a collapse that was.

Rule Stan out as much as you like. He's 2/2 in major finals. Tell me again how many times Murray has bottled it in major finals?

How many Masters titles does Stan have?

How many Olympic Golds does Stan have?

How many career titles does Stan have?

How many slam finals has he reached?

List is endless but what's the point.

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Reaching more finals means nothing if you get humped every time...

What an ending. It all happened there.

Fed would or crushed Nadal today

Perhaps a little perspective than posturing. Rafa, the 8 times champion, is playing like its 2013 again. He fell off a little , sure, but lets not get the pitchforks out, both have played brilliantly,

but its Rafa on clay. Playing properly...

As you know Danny I can often be negative about Murray and often am but there is plenty to take heart from here. A semi on clay after a very poor month or two and bossing the first set and a bit against Rafa (who despite haters) has played much more like his old self.

Jermaine2015 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Jermaine2015 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Jermaine2015 wrote:Murray's not a true contender for the French open. His meek collapse shows he unable to maintain a consistent level throughout a match. It's nigh on impossible to try and paint the lines relentlessly

We'd better rule out the reigning champion as a contender as well then considering how much more of a collapse that was.

Rule Stan out as much as you like. He's 2/2 in major finals. Tell me again how many times Murray has bottled it in major finals?

How many Masters titles does Stan have?

How many Olympic Golds does Stan have?

How many career titles does Stan have?

How many slam finals has he reached?

List is endless but what's the point.

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Reaching more finals means nothing if you get humped every time...

Very tame comeback. It means you are far more consistent at those tournaments than Stan was.

Rafa wins, Andy not bad, not bad, anyone expecting more of him on clay, is dreaming.

Lets hope Monf can save the day.

This is like the break point false logic. its better to be 2/15 than 2/2 on break points. In the former, at least youre making a lot of them, which shows youre doing better.

With titles, number of, is a much better indicator of a good player than efficiency, especially with a small number.

Against all that, great match from both, we have a clay court season to savour it seems.

Probably the result that Djokovic was hoping didn't happen. Should Nadal win the title and reclaim Barcelona, Rome could be a humdinger heading into Paris(note Madrid is less relevant as its conditions aren't similar to the other events)

Temp, as usually derailing a Live Match thread, with unimportant things,

temporary21 wrote:This is like the break point false logic. its better to be 2/15 than 2/2 on break points. In the former, at least youre making a lot of them, which shows youre doing better.

With titles, number of, is a much better indicator of a good player than efficiency, especially with a small number.

Against all that, great match from both, we have a clay court season to savour it seems.

Stan was a late developer. Pretty much a journeyman until Switzerland won the Davis cup. Since 2014, Stan's stats are considerably better.

usual*. Also dont worry. Monfils will be on soon and you can take another break when he starts losing...

The words Cherry, and Picking come to mind.
The AO and FO are slow surfaces, and ergo dont matter. Considering that, Murray is infinitely better than Stan.

temporary21 wrote:The words Cherry, and Picking come to mind.
The AO and FO are slow surfaces, and ergo dont matter. Considering that, Murray is infinitely better than Stan.

Sure he is...Murray is mentally weak ergo he's a chump.

Jermaine2015 wrote:
Stan was a late developer. Pretty much a journeyman until Switzerland won the Davis cup.

Awkward.

Well somebodys sore that Nadal won... maybe go outside and not worry about tennis for a while...

The how many Olympic golds does Wawrinka have was also a little awks

temporary21 wrote:Well somebodys sore that Nadal won... maybe go outside and not worry about tennis for a while...

Rather see Nadal regain form then lose to King Roger at Paris...than see Murray get humped by Djokovic again.

Tennis must hurt you almost everyday. Go do something productive, other than stink out this place with a bunch of WUM whinging

kingraf wrote:The how many Olympic golds does Wawrinka have was also a little awks

Okay take that away if you wish but I await someone showing me where Stan's stats out do Murray in any way shape or form. Jermaine has a pop at Murray for choking and says Wawrinka is better yet Wawrinka was blown off court yesterday by the same 'out of form' Rafa yesterday. Jermaine needs to go figure out why?

temporary21 wrote:  Tennis must hurt you almost everyday. Go do something productive, other than stink out this place with a bunch of WUM whinging

Tennis hurt me? Why is if a drug? I can just watch replays of federer battering Murray at Wimbledon on loop...

CaledonianCraig wrote:

kingraf wrote:The how many Olympic golds does Wawrinka have was also a little awks

Okay take that away if you wish but I await someone showing me where Stan's stats out do Murray in any way shape or form. Jermaine has a pop at Murray for choking and says Wawrinka is better yet Wawrinka was blown off court yesterday by the same 'out of form' Rafa yesterday. Jermaine needs to go figure out why?

Stan's already won Monte Carlo, probably saving himself for Madrid and Rome to complete his collection.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

kingraf wrote:The how many Olympic golds does Wawrinka have was also a little awks

Okay take that away if you wish but I await someone showing me where Stan's stats out do Murray in any way shape or form. Jermaine has a pop at Murray for choking and says Wawrinka is better yet Wawrinka was blown off court yesterday by the same 'out of form' Rafa yesterday. Jermaine needs to go figure out why?

Forget about him, hes not thinking, he just needs to hit puberty and find something more worthwhile...

Jermaine the Gerry - Lots of laughs!

Great match today, Andys first set performance and Rafas second and third would for sure give Novak something to think about.

temporary21 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

kingraf wrote:The how many Olympic golds does Wawrinka have was also a little awks

Okay take that away if you wish but I await someone showing me where Stan's stats out do Murray in any way shape or form. Jermaine has a pop at Murray for choking and says Wawrinka is better yet Wawrinka was blown off court yesterday by the same 'out of form' Rafa yesterday. Jermaine needs to go figure out why?

Forget about him, hes not thinking, he just needs to hit puberty and find something more worthwhile...

OH ITS GERRYSA! I wondered what his second account was after the Moeen ali comment

temporary21 wrote:OH ITS GERRYSA! I wondered what his second account was after the Moeen ali comment

Ah yes it all makes perfect sense now. Even has a double bluff on the Moto GP thread.

I don't think Jermaine is Gerry. Barely enters the cricket forums and I think he registered (and started commenting) before Gerry got kicked off.

Oh dear, so Gerry still looms large...
ill get bak to the tennis now. Tsonga has started pretty darn slowly, 2 breaks down, but hes pulled one back

temporary21 wrote:Oh dear, so Gerry still looms large...
ill get bak to the tennis now. Tsonga has started pretty darn slowly, 2 breaks down, but hes pulled one back

I have a sneaky feeling Monfils will come through.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

temporary21 wrote:OH ITS GERRYSA! I wondered what his second account was after the Moeen ali comment

Ah yes it all makes perfect sense now. Even has a double bluff on the Moto GP thread.

Double bluff? Only think that's comparable with myself and GarrySA is motogp. Even then my knowledge about motogp supercedes his vastly. But you keep up the conspiracy theories...

Monfils crushing Tsonga currently.

Good to see Nadal in a Clay final.

laverfan wrote:Good to see Nadal in a Clay final.

Looked as good as I have seen him for quite some time as well. Well played to him.

Monfils with the chance of a first masters, played very well this week

Had to go off and slum it at a birthday bar-b-q in the wonderful Spanish sunsine...so only saw the commencement of the match.. Rafa was broken and Andy looked good so I thought heh ho.. that is it once more. Imagine my deiight when I came home to find he had won.. not any easy match as I could tell so am I to believe that Rafa has found some of his old form.??? Well he has Montfils tomorrow and I love him so it will be a good final for me.
Vamos Rafa

Take a gander at the highlights, it was the best hes played in two years

Good to see Rafa back to something like his best. Should bt Monfils which will give him heart for the clay-court season.
Haven't really learned my lesson from last year, when I tipped Rafa to win the French, as I'm going with him again this year.

I would not be too surprised to see Monfils go down 6-1 6-2 to Nadal. He is so dysfunctional in big matches.

Just watched the highlights on YOU TUBE Nadal v Murray.. all I can say is
WOW!!!! what a match.. no prisoners taken.
So good to see Rafa in such good form.. never thought I would see it ever again
Now go for it Rafa !!!

I suspect Rafael Nadal is nowhere near his best (his Wimbledon record seems to reflect a permanent change).  But he still might be good enough to beat everyone else on the clay (apart from perhaps Djokovic).

Very good tournament from Rafa's perspective.  He beat Thiem-Wawrinka-Murray in succession.  That is about as difficult a route as he could possibly have at RG before getting to face Djokovic.  This is a better result than he had all year last year on clay.

As I said before, I think his goal for the tournaments before RG should be to make it obvious that Nole and he are the two best guys on clay this season.  If he can do that, then who knows, anything can happen.  Nole may feel pressure when they meet at RG, or he may lose to someone early, and Rafa might be able to win.

It looks like my hopes of Rafa dropping out of top 10 by YE are likely gone

Oh how sad.. my heart bleeds

Danny_1982 wrote:It's so frustrating watching him reach that level of play, then fail to sustain it. It's not just that it dropped 5%, that can happen to anyone, but his intensity vanished. He dropped 2 metres virtually the moment the second set started.

That's the time to play with more intensity than ever! Makes me think back to Lendl, mental giant. And he is the only one who has managed to get that sustained intensity from Andy, and consequently the big wins.

Murray was the same under Lendl and before. It's rise-tinted to suggest Andy suddenly became a mental giant with Lendl there. Against the best players you can pretty much guarantee he will have a period where he lets them back into the match.

Had he started the second set strongly, I suspect Rafa's fragile confidence would have kicked in. Instead, Andy became far too passive and lost a match he should have won. There are no positives for him to take from that display. It's a devastating defeat for the forthcoming months.

Looking at possibilities for French Open seeding, the following are the live ranking points with anything dropping up to and including Rome deducted.    

1	Novak Djokovic	14550
2	Andy Murray	6835
3	Roger Federer	6925
4	Stan Wawrinka	6010
5	Rafael Nadal	4415 (4915 MC win)
6	Kei Nishikori	3495
7	Jo Wilfried Tsonga	3265
8	David Ferrer	2470
9	Tomas Berdych	2580
10	Richard Gasquet	2545
11	Milos Raonic	2560
12	Marin Cilic	2625
13	David Goffin	2380
14	Gael Monfils	2415 (2815 MC win)
15	Dominic Thiem	2330
16	John Isner	1965
17	Roberto Bautista Agut	1880
18	Gilles Simon	1855
19	Kevin Anderson	1740
20	Nick Kyrgios	1515

It's very close between Murray and Federer for 2nd seed - to remain 2nd for the French, Murray needs to outscore Federer by 90 points. I'm not clear on whether Federer is playing Madrid, Rome or both so not sure how difficult that task is. Even if Federer plays both, Murray does have the advantage of second seeding at both, thus knowing he will avoid Djokovic - though they could end up with Nadal in their quarter anyway. Wawrinka has an outside shot of overtaking both for second.

Nadal could overtake Wawrinka for the fourth seed and a win tomorrow certainly helps that.

The eighth seed slot is wide open - anyone from Ferrer at 8 to Thiem at 15 has a reasonable shot. If Monfils did somehow win tomorrow, he'd be pole position.

It's where Nadal falls in the draw that's most of interest, especially if he is seeded 5 rather than 4.

Now that Djokovic lost and Nadal is playing well again is it safe to comment on him without Rafa's famously acid-tongued Momma Bear on this site clawing our eyes out for making benign observations?

Haven't had a chance to comment since I record all these matches. Really enjoyed Fed v. Tsonga I thought Fed played pretty well despite losing. Murray let himself down but you have to hand it to Nadal he really did up his level of aggression in the second set. Rafa is trusting his BH more and in particular I was impressed with his down the line BH. Every time he used it he hurt Murray. That shot along with Rafa's first serve is going to be crucial for him to retooling his game. That is the shot that this going to help him either win the point out right by hitting into the open space righties leave on their FH side or it will force the RH to hit the next ball to Rafa's BH. In effect, a good BH down the line for Rafa will set up his running FH on the next ball and he won't need to do as much work constantly selling out his court positions to generate a FH.