Rome Masters 2016

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What a draw!

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/scores/current/rome/416/draws

Yeah, I had no idea what he was talking about turning "one week Asians". I thought he was talking about going on vacation or something, kind of figured it out on a closer reading of context.

I think Djokovic will calm down come RG time, it will be incumbent on his opponents to run him close long enough to make the pressure of the moment rise up. I think for him he has to just really focus from the beginning and get a lead. I think if he digs himself a hole or has a real barn burner then he will feel the pressure and it will impact his play. He might still squeak through but it makes things more touch and go in close matches or if he falls behind. If he can win all 7 first sets that obviously gives him the best chance. If an opponent can stay with him and build scoreboard pressure than I think he will get tense again and could very well lose because of it.

He was playing the whole of Rome like it was a HC and not a CC. He's got to put more PRESSURE on opponents to win these matches sitting back and retrieving like Murray tends to do won't be good enough at RG. I am sure he will increase the pressure on everyone in RG and stop with his 'mid court retriever' tactics.

lydian wrote: it has to be said, I just don't get the same highs as before. I wonder if there's a bunch of us who dined out during the golden period of tennis...say 2005-2012ish...and its just not the same since somehow. Or maybe our lives move on to the extent where tennis/sport just doesn't 'hit' the same as before.

This bit covers it for me. I think with age comes a certain maturity and I think that is a factor as well. The average age of posters is probably on the increase on the tennis forum of 606 v2 on the basis that many have been posting for years transitioning around the time that 606 closed and few new members coming on board to become regular posters.

Yes suspect so HB...I've been posting for over 10 years now about tennis - there's only so much you can say!

HM, HM; caaalm, you're stressing too much, Djokovic will win the French comfortably this year, trust me.
The only way he can be vulnerable is if he has a quarter and semi against Nishi and Nadal, and then is tired for a final against Murray. Other than that, he should be ok.

It Must Be Love wrote:HM, HM; caaalm, you're stressing too much, Djokovic will win the French comfortably this year, trust me.
The only way he can be vulnerable is if he has a quarter and semi against Nishi and Nadal, and then is tired for a final against Murray. Other than that, he should be ok.

Well, there's the curse right there!

I'm not stressing. I actually feel rather calm about the whole thing. I just know that, at this particular event, it's impossible for me to enjoy following it now.

It Must Be Love wrote:Djokovic will win the French comfortably this year, trust me.

Bookmarked

It Must Be Love wrote:HM, HM; caaalm, you're stressing too much, Djokovic will win the French comfortably this year, trust me.
The only way he can be vulnerable is if he has a quarter and semi against Nishi and Nadal, and then is tired for a final against Murray. Other than that, he should be ok.

Or they could give him Nadal followed by Murray, followed by Wawrinka all with crappy scheduling causing him to play 4 or 5 days in a row by making him the last match in each round, you know like they did to him last year and almost every year.

Classic Amrit jinxing.

lydian wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:Djokovic will win the French comfortably this year, trust me.

Bookmarked

+1.

Premature speculation me thinks...seen it end "ugly" on 606 before lol.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

lydian wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:Djokovic will win the French comfortably this year, trust me.

Bookmarked

+1.

Love the way people are bookmarking something he doesn't want to happen. I can only imagine how upset IMBL will be when Nadal wins and this "prediction" gets flagged.

One word of caution for Djokovic fans though, although I think it's very likely he wins, for me there's still 2 realistic ways he mucks it up:

a) As I said before, if he gets a bad draw and is tired for the final against Andy. He does have good stamina, but if he has a long QF and SF, then that could mean trouble. I don't think either Nadal or Nishi can beat Djokovic, but they can both tire him out. Andy is mentally flaky so it's a tough shot, but he is the player who can beat even a tired Djokovic.

b) Djokovic could lose his head. I don't think he will, and frankly I don't think we should read too much into Rome, but he has to be careful. The fact he's won the last 3 slams so comfortably should give him confidence, he has to have that in the forefront of his mind rather than the fact he hasn't won the FO before.

I've had a great track record with predictions recently, in fact I'm convinced that I'm on the verge of sending SkyBet into bankruptcy.
Yes, I made a few mistakes back in 2013, but unfortunately for SkyBet employees I've polished my crystal ball since then, big time.

IMBL, you are seriously underestimating Nadal IMO (Novak scraped past him at Rome, and he played well too) and just about anyone else too when you say Novak will win RG "comfortably"...thats almost implying he's not going to lose a set all event never mind "just" win the trophy. In fact what did you mean by that?

Most of us agree he's the favourite...but how many feel he's going to win it "comfortably"! Well I don't...I even believe he'll be knocked out before he meets any of the big 4-5 because I have a feeling all is not well in Novak-land mentally.

lydian wrote:IMBL, you are seriously underestimating Nadal IMO (Novak scraped past him at Rome, and he played well too) and just about anyone else too when you say Novak will win RG "comfortably"...thats almost implying he's not going to lose a set all event never mind "just" win the trophy. In fact what did you mean by that?

Hey I never said he would never lose a set.
I think he'll win it like he won the US Open 2015.

lydian wrote:
Most of us agree he's the favourite...but how many feel he's going to win it "comfortably"! Well I don't...I even believe he'll be knocked out before he meets any of the big 4-5 because I have a feeling all is not well in Novak-land mentally.

OK we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. Even the young wildcards like Kyrgios are better suited to grass than clay, so I don't see it happening.

In general there is a rest day between matches during the Gland Slams so Djokovic should be fine.  How many people are going to challenge him over five sets.  As long as he is fit I have to put him down as a clear favourite.  Which is not hard to do given that he has double the points ranking of anyone else &  is the current holder of three slams, and reached the Final of RG in the last two years.

Sure he's gave, I just dispute he's going to win it comfortably.
Also, it's best of 5 but that doesn't mean he has to be beaten in 5.
Anyway, let's see

lydian wrote:IMBL, you are seriously underestimating Nadal

Amri is not underestimating Nadal.  He is jinxing, of course.

In fact, he is predicting Djokovic to win "comfortably" exactly because he knows Nadal has a chance.  I imagine he might even go and put some money on Djokovic, Andy and Kei, just for good measure.

All of a sudden, with Nole wobbling a little, this FO looks more open than it has been in years.

For a number of years we knew Rafa would win, and last year it was obvious Nole would lift the trophy, but this year it is less clear.

What are Nole's percent chances in your guy's opinion? I see him as 50/50 with the field, I know it isn't precise but I get a sense that his chances are about that. And if it is that high its an amazing accomplishment. Everyone on one side and Novak and the other at worst I would say he 2 to 5 or 1 to 3 at the worst. Interested in knowing everyone else's views and why?

My guesstimates are:

Nole ~ 50%
Rafa ~ 25%
Andy ~15%
field ~10%

Maybe a little less for Nole (45%?) but 50% close enough for rounding.

Nope SB, maybe in the past, but now I'm basing my predictions on logic and reason.
Note- I'm not saying it's a guaranteed win for Djokovic (he could lose his mind or get tired if he has 2 long matches before the final), but I think it's very likely he wins. When I said comfortably I did not mean without dropping a set, but it will be like USO 2015 where he dropped a few sets but was never in big danger.

Opponents:
Murray- Djokovic has won the last 4 Slam matches against Murray, and has a tremendous H2H record overall in the past 2 years
Nadal- Since Nadal declined in 2015, they have played 6 matches and all of them have been to Djokovic in straight sets.
Nishikori- The set he won against Djokovic in Rome was after Djokovic accidentally injured his ankle, apart from that he's not been that great this clay season, in fact in 2014 he was looking better. Not shown signs he's got the consistency to beat the big guns
Wawrinka- He could pull off a miracle like last year, his form before the FO is bad just like last year, however I see it as very unlikely for lightning to strike twice

So I think my analysis is backed up by the evidence. It's clear that Djokovic is the very clear favourite, and Murray has the best chance to beat him (as shown in Rome and even Madrid). Of course I'm hoping Nadal wins, and he's definitely in the top 3 favourites so it's not implausible he does win; but my predictions are not based on who I want to win or not.

summerblues wrote:My guesstimates are:

Nole ~ 50%
Rafa ~ 25%
Andy ~15%
field ~10%

Maybe a little less for Nole (45%?) but 50% close enough for rounding.

I can understand you putting Rafa above Andy; I would disagree because of Murray's straight sets win over Nadal in Madrid and the fact Murray has a better record than Djokovic.
But having Djokovic at 45% I just see as astonishing. He's won the past 3 slams, he lost in a freak match to God-Stan last year, if not for that he would have won 5 Slams in a row.
I remember you doing a thread basically mocking the idea of Djokovic winning 4 Slams in a row after he lost to Stan last year, I made clear that unless some new young stars shoot out of nowhere with Fedal declining it's very possible... and look where we are now.

It Must Be Love wrote:Of course I'm hoping Nadal wins, and he's definitely in the top 3 favourites so it's not implausible he does win

Fair enough.

It Must Be Love wrote:Nope SB, maybe in the past, but now I'm basing my predictions on logic and reason.
Note- I'm not saying it's a guaranteed win for Djokovic (he could lose his mind or get tired if he has 2 long matches before the final), but I think it's very likely he wins. When I said comfortably I did not mean without dropping a set, but it will be like USO 2015 where he dropped a few sets but was never in big danger.

Opponents:
Murray- Djokovic has won the last 4 Slam matches against Murray, and has a tremendous H2H record overall in the past 2 years
Nadal- Since Nadal declined in 2015, they have played 6 matches and all of them have been to Djokovic in straight sets.
Nishikori- The set he won against Djokovic in Rome was after Djokovic accidentally injured his ankle, apart from that he's not been that great this clay season, in fact in 2014 he was looking better. Not shown signs he's got the consistency to beat the big guns
Wawrinka- He could pull off a miracle like last year, his form before the FO is bad just like last year, however I see it as very unlikely for lightning to strike twice

So I think my analysis is backed up by the evidence. It's clear that Djokovic is the very clear favourite, and Murray has the best chance to beat him (as shown in Rome and even Madrid). Of course I'm hoping Nadal wins, and he's definitely in the top 3 favourites so it's not implausible he does win; but my predictions are not based on who I want to win or not.

Astute analysis and I do agree with most of what you are saying. But slams are still 7 single elimination matches. If you look over the last two years he has won 4 slams (before this year) so about 50 percent. Of course you would like a bigger sample size but we just don't have that luxury when talking about the form of a champion. Plus you do have to say he has failed at the hurdle quite a few times

someone remind me... didn't they say he would win it comfortably last year.??!!!

The thing that astounds me most is that his supporters seem to be more confident than he is.
He knows this is the one that eludes him, and because of that its the one he wants most.
The one that Rafa has dominated in the past and the one that Federer has ...
Poor old Ken Rosewall the same happened for him.. he never could win Wimbledon.

The smug "comfortable" win is a bit O.t.t. if he does win it.. he is gonna have to fight for it
He has some strong contenders to go through.. and he needs just one bad match on the way to the final to snooker his chances and again its 5 SETS

Just remember how many chickens you have... but don't count them

IMBL on one hand I see where you are coming from but on the other I don't. Like most I would still make Novak as favourite but you try to back things up by saying he has won the last three slams without stopping to think that these were slams he had won before. Novak has tried and failed on many occasions to win in RG and I would hazard a guess thst he has went into RG in better nick mentally and physically than he does this year.

It Must Be Love wrote:

summerblues wrote:My guesstimates are:

Nole ~ 50%
Rafa ~ 25%
Andy ~15%
field ~10%

Maybe a little less for Nole (45%?) but 50% close enough for rounding.

I can understand you putting Rafa above Andy; I would disagree because of Murray's straight sets win over Nadal in Madrid and the fact Murray has a better record than Djokovic.
But having Djokovic at 45% I just see as astonishing. He's won the past 3 slams, he lost in a freak match to God-Stan last year, if not for that he would have won 5 Slams in a row.
I remember you doing a thread basically mocking the idea of Djokovic winning 4 Slams in a row after he lost to Stan last year, I made clear that unless some new young stars shoot out of nowhere with Fedal declining it's very possible... and look where we are now.

I think we know where WE are... the question is where are YOU. IMBL you must be on a wind up.. otherwise can I have some of what you are taking because it certainly elevates you from the real world.  There is not a poster here who would be foolish enough not to agree that  Novak is the favourite..
That does not make him unbeatable.. we have seen that in the last two tournaments. You have made a good case and a good job of convincing yourself.. but the rest of us are not buying it.

Averaged Over 13 betting odds and normalised to 100% for 13 top odds players to win the French Open (rounded to nearest integer).

Novak Djokovic 51 %
Rafael Nadal 18 %
Andy Murray 13 %
Stan Wawrinka 5 %
Kei Nishikori 3 %
Roger Federer 2 %
Dominic Thiem 2 %
Gael Monfils 1 %
Nick Kyrgios 1 %
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1 %
Tomas Berdych 1 %
Milos Raonic 1 %
David Ferrer 1 %
David Goffin 0 %

That really is not telling us anymore than we already know NS
Foregone but even at the Grand National the favourite does not always win

Agree with HN and CC, yes ORDINARILY Djoko might be 50% fave but this is RG...the one he desperately wants and now goes in with doubts from the clay swing...he "only" won Madrid which is NOT representative of RG surface at all.

Also, RG is notoriously hard for older guys to win it...only Agassi, Wawrinka and Gomez have been over 29yo winners since 1980 (when for me modern game started).

in fact, since 1980 only 9 guys over 29yo have won a slam (that's 15 out of ~140 slams won) period. And you might call Agassi and Wawrinka late bloomers (Agaasi accounts for a 1/3 of the 15). The list also has 3 one-offs....Goran, Korda and Gomez.

If Djokovic doesn't do it this year, then only 6 guys over 30yo have done it...again including 2 late career one-offs.
Which is why 17 GS is probably beyond him too.

This is why the pressure is building for Novak...what he's trying to do as a 1st win at RG >29yo is real tough and his chances are dropping rapidly if its not this year. I wonder if he knows that...

Of course the age odds make it tough for Nadal and Murray too...but common-sense says one of them will win it...doesn't it?

I would have given Djokovic a greater than 50% chance let's say 60% chance - but I guess that is a minor quibble.  Surprised at how low Federer's chances are compared to some of the others - except clay will have to be gruelling for him if he is going to beat the likes of Djokovic, Nadal, and maybe a few others - and Federer doesn't really have the strength any longer to keep going with those guys on this type of surface for best of five.

paraphrased from lydian wrote:...  in fact, since 1980 only 15 out of ~140 slams have been won by guys over 29 yo ...  

29 and over or 30 and over?  Astonishing fact no matter what.  Djokovic may break the mould but history tells us when they "fall" they fall suddenly and hard. In fact looking at the demographics there is a good chance the stats will change - but I reckon once Djokovic ankles give way he will be gone - Djokovic MK 0.5

If you put it on paper yes of course Novak does.. but it doesn't come down to that in the final analysis does it..? Stan proved that last year. Frankly even when Rafa was playing at the top of his game and it seemed that he had a strangle hold on the FO I was never as confident as you Novak fans profess to be every time he defended it. Look what happened when he finally lost it to Soderling.. nothing is that certain

Love the way the only person stating Novak is a large favourite is a Nadal fan and another Nadal fan is accusing Djokovic fans of being over-confident!

Personally, I think Novak would win around 70% of the time. I'd give Rafa 15% prospects, Murray 5% and the rest of the field the remaining 10%.

As for Lydian's stats, I'm curious how many players over 29 have previously gone into RG as the dominant number 1 and acknowledged best player on clay with their main competition all being older than them? It feels like that stat is utterly redundant in this case.

29yo and over NS for the 15/141 stat...
30 yo tends to be the slam cliff for sure.
Agree on his ankles, and movement generally.
Nadal is already slower...Fed obviously...that's when the slams dry up...they have the ability, just not the speed anymore.

Outliers tend to be amazingly fortuitous draws (Korda, Gomez) or guys with massive weapons (Goran, Wawrinka, Sampras, Agassi - and he's probably best ball striker of Open Era) which can make up for loss of foot speed. I don't quite count Djokovic as having massive weapons so once the speed goes then I agree slams will dry likely up. When will that be...who knows but it tends to happen suddenly.

The best player on clay? Well straight away that is up for debate since he has never won RG? If we are talking over the years then no ends up that accolade goes to Rafael Nadal. If we are talking about the here and now then on results this season then apparently Murray leads the way.

Sure BS....we also know players are sustaining peaks for longer.

Only 2 out of those 15 were won by someone at #1 ranking...Agassi...Fed got #1 after Wimb12.

But does it matter with Djokovic being #1 before/now...we're looking to 29 and beyond.

BUT the age facts remain...and even the mighty dominant Federer only won 1 more slam after 28y 5m!

CaledonianCraig wrote:The best player on clay? Well straight away that is up for debate since he has never won RG? If we are talking over the years then no ends up that accolade goes to Rafael Nadal. If we are talking about the here and now then on results this season then apparently Murray leads the way.

The best clay on clay now. I don't think that's in debate really, unless you think Andy is favourite for the French?

Born Slippy wrote:Love the way the only person stating Novak is a large favourite is a Nadal fan and another Nadal fan is accusing Djokovic fans of being over-confident!

Personally, I think Novak would win around 70% of the time. I'd give Rafa 15% prospects, Murray 5% and the rest of the field the remaining 10%.

Well I go on the words of one of the greatest leaders of our time

"The one unchangeable certainty is that nothing is unchangeable or certain"

A bigger man than either you or William Hill  

JFK no less

socal1976 wrote:What are Nole's percent chances in your guy's opinion? I see him as 50/50 with the field, I know it isn't precise but I get a sense that his chances are about that. And if it is that high its an amazing accomplishment. Everyone on one side and Novak and the other at worst I would say he 2 to 5 or 1 to 3 at the worst. Interested in knowing everyone else's views and why?

I think it's easier to work the other way.

What are the chances of someone other than Novak, Andy or Rafa winning? I'd say Nishi probably has about a 5% chance. Stan looks out of form and Federer looks injured, so I'm not going to consider them as special cases for this event. I'd say the non-Nishi field probably has a 5% chance, so that's a 10% chance for "the field".

The next most likely winner is Rafa. I'd put his chances at around 20%.

So that means there is 70% chance of the winner being Novak or Andy. If we end up with numbers that make Novak twice as likely as Andy and three times as likely as Rafa, then I think we are being to generous to Novak. I also think Andy's chances are distinctly better than Rafa's. So overall I'd say:

Novak ~ 40%
Andy ~ 30%
Rafa ~ 20%
The rest ~ 10%

Of course, the draw can shift these around a bit but that's about how I see it.

Maybe not quite as rich as William Hill though

Calder106 wrote:Maybe not quite as rich as William Hill though

Well lets face it he was hardly a pauper was he

But then William Hill makes his money from the likes of certain Novak fans

In terms of who will be the next "new" grand slam champion - Nishikori is raising his head above the parapet. With regard Djokovic his clay season performance has been less than impressive compared to what we might have expected given his ranking points and and recent performance in the grand slams. One just is beginning to suspect that maybe his efforts, especially his astonishing Masters level effort, is just beginning to take its toll on his body. One suspects Nadal is getting back to a decent form, Murray may be heading back to something of a peak form, Nishikori is progressing ...

Exactly Nore, Novak was the dominant #1 going into this clay season and looked at what has happened.
Compare this to last year...he was the dominant #1 going into that clay season and won MC and Rome.
Maybe things are just starting to slip a little...

lydian wrote:Exactly Nore, Novak was the dominant #1 going into this clay season and looked at what has happened.
Compare this to last year...he was the dominant #1 going into that clay season and won MC and Rome.
Maybe things are just starting to slip a little...

Maybe my post on another thread would have been better here:

This time five years ago, Djoko was going into RG having beaten Nadal at Madrid and Rome and it looked very likely that RG would be his 3rd slam and first away from Australia.

It seems extraordinary that the RG odyssey for Djoko continues; he's now a year older than Federer was at RG 2009. Each time he's gone into RG with the edge over Nadal, he's run into a Swiss guy playing lights out tennis, Federer in 2011 and Wawrinka in 2015. He's probably got no more than 2-3 more chances, he's looking tense, and Murray's win in Rome can't be helping his nerves....

Born Slippy wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:The best player on clay? Well straight away that is up for debate since he has never won RG? If we are talking over the years then no ends up that accolade goes to Rafael Nadal. If we are talking about the here and now then on results this season then apparently Murray leads the way.

The best clay on clay now. I don't think that's in debate really, unless you think Andy is favourite for the French?

No I don't think Andy is favourite but do think he is the form player this season on clay (going by results). How does that work I hear you say? Well Andy has always struggled mentally to cross the winning line in slams plus this is clay but I don't want to downplay his chances too much.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

Calder106 wrote:Maybe not quite as rich as William Hill though

Well lets face it he was hardly a pauper was he

But then William Hill makes his money from the likes of certain Novak fans

Family money he

Would have thought that anyone who was putting say £20 on Novak before every tournament since the beginning of 2014 would be sitting nicely in profit at the present. That said the odds on he is currently for the FO seems a bit prohibitive. The draw may change that but he will still be short odds.

lydian wrote:Exactly Nore, Novak was the dominant #1 going into this clay season and looked at what has happened.
Compare this to last year...he was the dominant #1 going into that clay season and won MC and Rome.
Maybe things are just starting to slip a little...

His performances during last clay season were scratchy though. He took 3 sets to beat Bellucci, Almagro and Nishi in Rome and was less-than-convincing in the MC final against Berdych.

I don't see a great deal between the two seasons really.

The MC result stands out as odd but when a player plays his first clay court match just 10 days after winning the IW-MI double, I think an upset is always on the cards.

The big difference as I see it is that last year he finished in Rome playing his best tennis and in a good place mentally. This year he finished in Rome looking tired and irritable.