Rome Masters 2016

First topic message reminder :

What a draw!

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/scores/current/rome/416/draws

Ive pointed out previously HMM that he is a victim of his own success. He, his team, his fans and the world at large expect him to win every time he goes on court. The biggest tournament for him, and for his career, is fast approaching.. face it the pressure must be enormous. He has had some pretty rough matches leading up to it which has not helped.. he is hardly cruising at the moment and his mental resources must be running low. Maybe even a little self doubt is creeping in.. and that wont help. I would say that is a normal human response.

Haddie-nuff wrote:Ive pointed out previously HMM that he is a victim of his own success. He, his team, his fans and the world at large expect him to win every time he goes on court. The biggest tournament for him, and for his career, is fast approaching.. face it the pressure must be enormous. He has had some pretty rough matches leading up to it which has not helped.. he is hardly cruising at the moment and his mental resources must be running low. Maybe even a little self doubt is creeping in.. and that wont help. I would say that is a normal human response.

I don't think anyone can disagree with that.

No matter what the fitness levels or mental toughness is these resources will eventually run dry. In recent weeks it could be said that the signs are there that this is happening now with Novak.

^Haddie, I agree.

Sometimes he responds to pressure pro-actively and raises his game. Sometimes it makes him very passive.

If he plays aggressively, I rate his chances. If he slips into "wait for the opponent to miss mode" then he's toast.

In the assessment one can ask - is Djokovic winning by overpowering the opponent / being far better than his opponent. Or is he winning by his elastic ability - by responding after being significantly challenged. If he is winning by his elastic ability that suggests he is being pushed to the limit. And when someone is being pushed to their limits that is when they can break down or be beaten by the randomness of the game at the margins.

Yep even the strongest elastic can snap if its stretched too tight too often

Having read all the arguments, looked at the odds, the form, the pressure etc I have come to a definitive conclusion, that seems to be shared by most posters :-

Djokovic might win the French Open. Or he might not.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Having read all the arguments, looked at the odds, the form, the pressure etc I have come to a definitive conclusion, that seems to be shared by most posters :-

Djokovic might win the French Open. Or he might not.

Or most balanced and reasonable is admitting he is favourite but is not red hot favourite to a degree that he is unbeatable. I cannot fathom out how any player can be deemed unbeatable prior to a tournament he has never won.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Having read all the arguments, looked at the odds, the form, the pressure etc I have come to a definitive conclusion, that seems to be shared by most posters :-

Djokovic might win the French Open. Or he might not.

What odds can you get on that? Might be worth a flutter.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Having read all the arguments, looked at the odds, the form, the pressure etc I have come to a definitive conclusion, that seems to be shared by most posters :-

Djokovic might win the French Open. Or he might not.

Or most balanced and reasonable is admitting he is favourite but is not red hot favourite to a degree that he is unbeatable. I cannot fathom out how any player can be deemed unbeatable prior to a tournament he has never won.

These are the most balanced arguments I have heard yet

Well yes for sure HMM re this year.
But my point is he won the surfaces last year more like RG...slower and higher bouncing. This year he's had much more difficulty on them and won v.quick/low sliding Madrid.
Part of me thinks he's actually flattened his FH/BH out quite a lot over the past 2 seasons to up the groundstroke MPH so as a result these slower/higher surfaces pose a bit more of a challenge than they used to do.

Good post Barry - and lets not forget that Andy took him to 5 sets at RG last year...so even if Novak gets to the SF/F its not in the bag against guys he would have previously favoured against. I just think the 70% chance of the trophy BS states above is wildly optimistic with everything taken into account. He's been the run away favourite since 2011 now...that's 5 x RGs come and gone with no trophy, that must surely start to weigh on his mind when he knows the clock is also ticking.

This discussion is not just about the French Open. It is also looking at the possibility that more fundamental forces are afoot that could give rise to tectonic shifts in tennis as we yet know or understand it.

lydian wrote:Well yes for sure HMM re this year.
But my point is he won the surfaces last year more like RG...slower and higher bouncing. This year he's had much more difficulty on them and won v.quick/low sliding Madrid.
Part of me thinks he's actually flattened his FH/BH out quite a lot over the past 2 seasons to up the groundstroke MPH so as a result these slower/higher surfaces pose a bit more of a challenge than they used to do.

Re: the forehand, I think he's flattened it a bit too. But I think he'd gone too far down the topspin path in 2013-2014, so I see this change as him reverting to normal.

What struck me in Madrid and Rome was that I saw very little adaptation to the surface. It was just Novak's HC game transposed to clay. The drop shots he was hitting were 1) poorly executed and 2) done seemingly because he'd run out of ideas in the rally rather than as a tactical ploy.

He also seemed to not be totally comfortable in his movement. He spent a lot of time banging the clay out of his shoes and was moaning a lot about the surface in the Rome final (not entirely without justification but Murray dealt with it much better).

None of which is necessarily disastrous. It's perfectly possible to play oneself into form during the two weeks of a slam (Rafa's done that plenty of times).

Sure, he'll adjust during the championships and the first few rounds shouldn't be affected.
But its those small %'s that make the difference against the top guys...and less spin tends to mean less control, so he may take a while to reinstall that bit when needed.
Historically Novak had quite flat shots...even though he has a Western grip...he then tried to up the spin as you say and this brought a lot of success but against Nadal it didn't work so he had to flatten his game out, and its got a little stuck there this year. So I see it a little different in that he actually needs it more...not reverting to type as such.

Nore Staat wrote:Averaged Over 13 betting odds and normalised to 100% for 13 top odds players to win the French Open (rounded to nearest integer).

Novak Djokovic 51 %
Rafael Nadal 18 %
Andy Murray 13 %
Stan Wawrinka 5 %
Kei Nishikori 3 %
Roger Federer 2 %
Dominic Thiem 2 %
Gael Monfils 1 %
Nick Kyrgios 1 %
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1 %
Tomas Berdych 1 %
Milos Raonic 1 %
David Ferrer 1 %
David Goffin 0 %

I think Djokovic will win but I think Nadal, Federer and Nishikori offer value bets here. Perhaps not quite enough for me to actually bet though, I don't really bet these days unless something really stands out. If I could get 6-1 (Nadal) or 50-1 (Fed, Nishikori) at a bookmaker I already have an account with I'd get the credit card out.

Novak Djokovic 51 % - about right
Rafael Nadal 18 % - I would have guessed more like 20-25%
Andy Murray 13 % - I would have thought 7-10%.
Stan Wawrinka 5 % - maybe 4%
Kei Nishikori 3 % - maybe 4%
Roger Federer 2 % - maybe 4%

The long shot bets, Nishikori and Federer, perhaps rely on one of the big two suffering a surprise defeat, and then one above average performance when it really matters. Could happen.

Henman Bill wrote:Novak Djokovic 51 % - about right
Rafael Nadal 18 % - I would have guessed more like 20-25%
Andy Murray 13 % - I would have thought 7-10%.

You think that Djokovic is 5-7 times more likely to win than Murray?

I think the odds being quoted for Murray are surprisingly long. I think he's got a great chance. I'd personally say he has a better chance than Rafa (depending on the draw, of course).

I think I'll go with Lydian's suggestion of moving this discussion to a separate RG thread. See my latest comments on there.

Haddie-nuff wrote: someone remind me... didn't they say he would win it comfortably last year.??!!!

The thing that astounds me most is that his supporters seem to be more confident than he is.
He knows this is the one that eludes him, and because of that its the one he wants most.
The one that Rafa has dominated in the past and the one that Federer has ...
Poor old Ken Rosewall the same happened for him.. he never could win Wimbledon.

The smug "comfortable" win is a bit O.t.t. if he does win it.. he is gonna have to fight for it
He has some strong contenders to go through.. and he needs just one bad match on the way to the final to snooker his chances and again its 5 SETS

Just remember how many chickens you have... but don't count them

Only person selecting Djokovic to win "comfortably" is a Nadal fan in IMBL. Murdock has been on the record saying he probably will never win RG. I have said he probably will win it at some point in his career, and is the strong favorite this year but certainly not unbeatable and there are several other top contenders that can win and I wouldn't be surprised. So no Djokovic fan is making him out to be unbeatable you are just making up that straw man and running with it. So far can't think of any Djokovic fan here (Murdock, Me, or slasher) claiming anything approaching a comfortable win for Djokovic.

But you know if you really want to pretend that we are saying that so that you can rail against our "smug" attitude go right ahead, whatever will improve your mood. I only have two eyes and I don't want any of them clawed out come this French open, so you go right ahead believing in this fictional world where smug Djokovic fans are predicting "comfortable" wins for him; and you Haddie voice of reason railing against this "smug" belief that actually no Djokovic fans hold. If this fiction will make your temper tolerable for the remainder of this French open then go ahead and believe what you like, even if you just made it up.

Thanks HB

Djokovic fans on this forum have not been smug at all- in fact they're ridiculously humble.

It Must Be Love wrote:Djokovic fans on this forum have not been smug at all- in fact they're ridiculously humble.

Yes, I just find it a bit amusing how not only Djokovic has become smug and arrogant according to some, but his fans have also become smug and arrogant. And the evidence for this that exactly zero Djokovic fans have stated that he will have a comfortable win at RG. Djokovic will never get a fair shake from some who need to not like him and his tennis to somehow validate their love for Fed or Nadal. But then 11 slam titles and 200 plus weeks at number one has away to ease the pain of not being the hero of the myopic. In fact, part of me loves the fact that despite doing nothing to deserve it he has to win every single big match as the road team, and he still does for the most part. Nothing like the groan of disappointment from the crowds when Novak beats their hero once again, or the funeral dirges that will be sung on 606 post any big tournament win by him at this stage are like the sweetest music to my ears.

It Must Be Love wrote:Djokovic fans on this forum have not been smug at all- in fact they're ridiculously humble.

H u m b l e  really ???  I am obviously missing something the only word I agree with is "ridiculously"

Haddie-nuff wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:Djokovic fans on this forum have not been smug at all- in fact they're ridiculously humble.

H u m b l e  really ???  I am obviously missing something the only word I agree with is "ridiculously"

Well you could fill up an encyclopedia apparently with things that you are missing. If I were you I wouldn't highlight this portion of the thread and the bold face lies you made up to smear Djokovic fans. You claimed that we were predicting comfortable wins for Djokovic and that our predictions were "smug" and "OTT". In fact you just lied and made up. Not a single, not one Djokovic fan came in here and claimed he would have a comfortable win. Either retract your lie, or stop pretending like your fantastical flights of fancy are reality. The only person who predicted a comfortable Novak win was IMBL, a Nadal fan.

So I repeat where is your evidence of ANY Djokovic fans predicting a comfortable win, either produce that evidence or retract your nasty smears and dishonest lies. If anyone is acting ridiculous it is you, who tries to broadbrush Djokovic fans when the only one claiming a "comfortable" win is IMBL a nadal fan. If you want to make up positions for me or other Djokovic fans and then rail against your own strawman let me tell you its going to be a very "uncomfortable" RG for you on here. Some people don't care to have you make something up and then attack them as "smug" based on your own delusional rantings.

If you could go to the trouble of actually replying to a post in less than 50 lines I might take the trouble to read it as it is .. frankly I cant be bothered what you think your whistling down the wind . zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

You lied to smear Djokovic fans on this thread. Not a single Djokovic fan claimed he would have "comfortable" win that was IMBL a Nadal fan. So either retract your smear and lie or produce evidence of a single Djoko fan predicting a "comfortable" win.

So I didn't want to tax your reading comprehension Haddie, is 40 words or less enough for you to figure it out?

Here Haddie=Liar=proven;are you better with equations?

Your opinion means nothing to me whatsoever... it matters to only one person that I can see and that is . yourself

Rome is finished - all roads now lead away from Rome.