The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll)

First topic message reminder :

Hopefully it will stop the arguments about Gib and we can tell Spain to pee off

Nore Staat wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Nore Staat wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:And Nore you still haven't provided any specifics as to which laws you think are impugning upon our sovereignty.

Remainer's that feign ignorance that being part of the EU does not impact on Britain's sovereignty and democracy do not trump my democratic right to vote out in the Referendum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/6198513/EU-is-Britain-still-a-sovereign-state.html

Again...which laws? I'm not doubting you, it's just you don't seem to know what exactly you're angry about.

I'm voting out.  I am not going to waste my time on this thread any longer.

Ok mate. Best of luck.

Duty281 wrote:

"We would lose our say on climate change regulations, trade regulations, the economy and security, meaning less influence on the world you and your family live in."

No we wouldn't. UN, WTO, Nato, Council of Europe etc.

I'll give you this one, I don't know why they are saying this.

Panic?

SecretFly wrote:Panic?

Well I think they meant to say that we'd lose our influence over EU laws, and by extension the ability to influence laws and regulations covering a larger portion of the world. I think. It's still a weak point and a bit of a stretch.

There are far better and more convincing arguments to be making, some of which they do make on the same page of the website.

Oh Dear. Bob Geldof is in on the action now.

Undoubtedly, the UK's role within the EU will now be essential for saving the African Continent from mosquitos, proselytising priests, dodgy Leaders, poachers, feral pet rabbits, Disneyland, Coke and rival Do-Good Celebs.

SecretFly wrote:Oh Dear.  Bob Geldof is in on the action now.  

Undoubtedly, the UK's role within the EU will now be essential for saving the African Continent from mosquitos, proselytising priests, dodgy Leaders, poachers, feral pet rabbits, Disneyland, Coke and rival Do-Good Celebs.

just watched it. farcical stuff meeting on the Thames like that, but kinda funny.

Ent wrote:The 2 billion isn't health tourism it's treating tourists who become unwell.

In or out the nhs needs to be better at reclaiming this money from these tourists insurance companies or their own government.

Even the eye watering sum of 2 billion pounds is a drop in the ocean for the nhs, nhs England's budget this year is approx 105 billion. And that doesn't include the percentage of public spending in ni, Wales, Scotland.

Health tourism is thought to cost a lot less.

Great, so the NHS doesn't mind wasting £2 billion. The tax payers don't mind either I take it? Would you mind if they scrapped the health cards and gave it to me? I mean it's just 2 billion, hospitals will have to continue with less beds but I'll be alright.

mikey_dragon wrote:

Ent wrote:The 2 billion isn't health tourism it's treating tourists who become unwell.

In or out the nhs needs to be better at reclaiming this money from these tourists insurance companies or their own government.

Even the eye watering sum of 2 billion pounds is a drop in the ocean for the nhs, nhs England's budget this year is approx 105 billion. And that doesn't include the percentage of public spending in ni, Wales, Scotland.

Health tourism is thought to cost a lot less.

Great, so the NHS doesn't mind wasting £2 billion. The tax payers don't mind either I take it? Would you mind if they scrapped the health cards and gave it to me? I mean it's just 2 billion, hospitals will have to continue with less beds but I'll be alright.

It is not wasted, it is spent treating tourists and ex pats who return home. This should be recouped from insurance companies or other governments which it currently isn't. Health tourism is a fraction of this and hard to quantify.

The point I'm raising is that even if the uk somehow regained all of this money by leaving the eu (it can't) it would be a drop in the ocean in the grand scheme of things and would not be a panacea for all the problems the nhs is facing.

It's a different political point but after a slowing in bed decreases under labour it has sped up again under the conservative gov. From 1988 to 1997 100k beds were closed. Under 13 years of labour 40k reduction so far in 6 years conservatives 28 thousand.

The nhs faces many many challenges, changes in ability to recruit staff, retain current staff and future funding are at risk in the event of an eu exit.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2013/04/Beds-Timeseries-2010-11-onwards-Q4-2015-16-9782.xls

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/bed-availability-and-occupancy/bed-data-overnight/

Forgot links above.

Nore Staat wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Nore Staat wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:And Nore you still haven't provided any specifics as to which laws you think are impugning upon our sovereignty.

Remainer's that feign ignorance that being part of the EU does not impact on Britain's sovereignty and democracy do not trump my democratic right to vote out in the Referendum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/6198513/EU-is-Britain-still-a-sovereign-state.html

Again...which laws? I'm not doubting you, it's just you don't seem to know what exactly you're angry about.

I'm voting out.  I am not going to waste my time on this thread any longer.

Before you go .... one more thing to consider...

Please vote remain.

Otherwise, I have to
1. Explain the decision to everyone in my village in Germany. They think it's rather bizarre that the UK would do something so against its interests, and it will stretch my German to explain it - especially as I can't explain it in English.
2. Probably take German citizenship, to ensure I have all the travel and work rights the EU confers. I will of course continue to support England rugby - and not German rugby.
3. Buy the beers after my next football evening. In Euros!

Sorry if you think these are scare stories. Let's stay.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen

The Sandal Bomber wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen

What's that? A lie by a Leave campaigner, who'd have thunk it.

The Sandal Bomber wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen

Cynical bullying by some Guardian jobsworth (and I'm no fan of Gove).

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-defends-his-disputed-claim-about-the-eu-destroying-his-fathers-business-a7084301.html

They should probably try headlining with some of the benefits of the EU...oh yeah, there aren't any!

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen

Cynical bullying by some Guardian jobsworth (and I'm no fan of Gove).

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-defends-his-disputed-claim-about-the-eu-destroying-his-fathers-business-a7084301.html

They should probably try headlining with some of the benefits of the EU...oh yeah, there aren't any!

Are you ever going to answer why you endorsed that open europe report when it's success hinged on getting rid of so many workers rights?

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen

Cynical bullying by some Guardian jobsworth (and I'm no fan of Gove).

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-defends-his-disputed-claim-about-the-eu-destroying-his-fathers-business-a7084301.html

They should probably try headlining with some of the benefits of the EU...oh yeah, there aren't any!

Are you ever going to answer why you endorsed that open europe report when it's success hinged on getting rid of so many workers rights?

A complete untruth.

I quoted the 'between 0.8% worse off and 0.6% better off' figure that Open Europe thought was most likely. High-scale deregulation, i.e. getting rid of many workers' rights, led Open Europe to offer a figure of up to 1.6% better off.

The former was the one I quoted, which does not mean getting rid of many workers' rights, not the latter, which would.

I think the financial markets have already shown the Open Europe figures to be rather on the optimistic side. Just the threat of Brexit has led to a 10% fall in the value of the United Kingdom.

All global financial markets are currently in decline, and this is nothing to do with the prospect of the people of the United Kingdom heroically slaying the European Union.

I mean, we could be talking about this instead:

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/15/germans-largest-bank-says-massive-uk-grown-brexit-bbc-remainers-silent/

They forget to mention that the FTSE has already fallen more than other indices despite a wekended Sterling so not a big surprise if it'll also bounce back more. Obviously a further weakened sterling post brexit will drive stock prices up.
But even if a defacto devaluation of the Sterling may be good for exporters it may not be good for the cost of your yearly trip to Torremolinos and all your imported goods. Something that will hit the lower class relatively harder.
And Duty281, yes the global markets are currently in decline due to the risk of a Brexit.

The FTSE should be up, given how much of it is based on foreign earnings, and how much the pound has fallen on Brexit fears.

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen

Cynical bullying by some Guardian jobsworth (and I'm no fan of Gove).

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-defends-his-disputed-claim-about-the-eu-destroying-his-fathers-business-a7084301.html

They should probably try headlining with some of the benefits of the EU...oh yeah, there aren't any!

Are you ever going to answer why you endorsed that open europe report when it's success hinged on getting rid of so many workers rights?

A complete untruth.

I quoted the 'between 0.8% worse off and 0.6% better off' figure that Open Europe thought was most likely. High-scale deregulation, i.e. getting rid of many workers' rights, led Open Europe to offer a figure of up to 1.6% better off.

The former was the one I quoted, which does not mean getting rid of many workers' rights, not the latter, which would.

0.8 worse off if they don't pursue the deregulation, and 0.6 better off if they do. That different from "Between -0.8 to 0.6" So you want us to leave, suffer a short term disaster, a difficult medium term so in about a dozen years time we can have a slight loss or a slight gain (if half our rights taken away)?

No thanks.

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen

Cynical bullying by some Guardian jobsworth (and I'm no fan of Gove).

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-defends-his-disputed-claim-about-the-eu-destroying-his-fathers-business-a7084301.html

They should probably try headlining with some of the benefits of the EU...oh yeah, there aren't any!

Are you ever going to answer why you endorsed that open europe report when it's success hinged on getting rid of so many workers rights?

A complete untruth.

I quoted the 'between 0.8% worse off and 0.6% better off' figure that Open Europe thought was most likely. High-scale deregulation, i.e. getting rid of many workers' rights, led Open Europe to offer a figure of up to 1.6% better off.

The former was the one I quoted, which does not mean getting rid of many workers' rights, not the latter, which would.

0.8 worse off if they don't pursue the deregulation, and 0.6 better off if they do. That different from "Between -0.8 to 0.6" So you want us to leave, suffer a short term disaster, a difficult medium term so in about a dozen years time we can have a slight loss or a slight gain (if half our rights taken away)?

No thanks.

It does beg the question, which workers' rights would we be prepared to give up?

superflyweight wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen

Cynical bullying by some Guardian jobsworth (and I'm no fan of Gove).

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-defends-his-disputed-claim-about-the-eu-destroying-his-fathers-business-a7084301.html

They should probably try headlining with some of the benefits of the EU...oh yeah, there aren't any!

Are you ever going to answer why you endorsed that open europe report when it's success hinged on getting rid of so many workers rights?

A complete untruth.

I quoted the 'between 0.8% worse off and 0.6% better off' figure that Open Europe thought was most likely. High-scale deregulation, i.e. getting rid of many workers' rights, led Open Europe to offer a figure of up to 1.6% better off.

The former was the one I quoted, which does not mean getting rid of many workers' rights, not the latter, which would.

0.8 worse off if they don't pursue the deregulation, and 0.6 better off if they do. That different from "Between -0.8 to 0.6" So you want us to leave, suffer a short term disaster, a difficult medium term so in about a dozen years time we can have a slight loss or a slight gain (if half our rights taken away)?

No thanks.

It does beg the question, which workers' rights would we be prepared to give up?  

Gender equality of course, how can you in this age of enlightenment pay my concubines an equal wage to mine? It all ends up in my pocket but still, its the principle of the thing.

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen

Cynical bullying by some Guardian jobsworth (and I'm no fan of Gove).

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-defends-his-disputed-claim-about-the-eu-destroying-his-fathers-business-a7084301.html

They should probably try headlining with some of the benefits of the EU...oh yeah, there aren't any!

Are you ever going to answer why you endorsed that open europe report when it's success hinged on getting rid of so many workers rights?

A complete untruth.

I quoted the 'between 0.8% worse off and 0.6% better off' figure that Open Europe thought was most likely. High-scale deregulation, i.e. getting rid of many workers' rights, led Open Europe to offer a figure of up to 1.6% better off.

The former was the one I quoted, which does not mean getting rid of many workers' rights, not the latter, which would.

0.8 worse off if they don't pursue the deregulation, and 0.6 better off if they do. That different from "Between -0.8 to 0.6" So you want us to leave, suffer a short term disaster, a difficult medium term so in about a dozen years time we can have a slight loss or a slight gain (if half our rights taken away)?

No thanks.

It does beg the question, which workers' rights would we be prepared to give up?  

Gender equality of course, how can you in this age of enlightenment pay my concubines an equal wage to mine? It all ends up in my pocket but still, its the principle of the thing.

You're still far too enlightened if you tease them with the idea that the money might actually belong to them in the first place.

BONJOVIFAN#1 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen

Cynical bullying by some Guardian jobsworth (and I'm no fan of Gove).

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-defends-his-disputed-claim-about-the-eu-destroying-his-fathers-business-a7084301.html

They should probably try headlining with some of the benefits of the EU...oh yeah, there aren't any!

Are you ever going to answer why you endorsed that open europe report when it's success hinged on getting rid of so many workers rights?

A complete untruth.

I quoted the 'between 0.8% worse off and 0.6% better off' figure that Open Europe thought was most likely. High-scale deregulation, i.e. getting rid of many workers' rights, led Open Europe to offer a figure of up to 1.6% better off.

The former was the one I quoted, which does not mean getting rid of many workers' rights, not the latter, which would.

0.8 worse off if they don't pursue the deregulation, and 0.6 better off if they do. That different from "Between -0.8 to 0.6" So you want us to leave, suffer a short term disaster, a difficult medium term so in about a dozen years time we can have a slight loss or a slight gain (if half our rights taken away)?

No thanks.

It does beg the question, which workers' rights would we be prepared to give up?  

Gender equality of course, how can you in this age of enlightenment pay my concubines an equal wage to mine? It all ends up in my pocket but still, its the principle of the thing.

You're still far too enlightened if you tease them with the idea that the money might actually belong to them in the first place.

That's the thing, you let em think they're independent and you support that and they'll stick their fanny in your face with all the enthusiasm of Rowley going to a car boot sale. You need to learn from me, serial Dave, then you won't have to kill prostitutes anymore.

Does the open Europe report mean -0.8 to + 0.6 than now by 2030 or by current 2030 predictions.

If the economy only grows by 0.6% in 15 years we are royally Frak.

Ent wrote:Does the open Europe report mean -0.8 to + 0.6 than now by 2030 or by current 2030 predictions.

If the economy only grows by 0.6% in 15 years we are royally Frak.

Most of the figures are for a couple of percentage points off the "business as usual" growth rates. So growth if 2% per year if the UK remains, 0% per year on Brexit, for 5 years.

It doesn't sound like much , but in terms of government finances, it makes the £30 billion per year hole. That won't be filled in one "emergency budget", but filled it will need to be. I'd like to hear Gove's proposals for filling the hole.

Nore Staat wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:And Nore you still haven't provided any specifics as to which laws you think are impugning upon our sovereignty.

Remainer's that feign ignorance that being part of the EU does not impact on Britain's sovereignty and democracy do not trump my democratic right to vote out in the Referendum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/6198513/EU-is-Britain-still-a-sovereign-state.html

Nore Staat wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:

Nore Staat wrote:

The Sandal Bomber wrote:And Nore you still haven't provided any specifics as to which laws you think are impugning upon our sovereignty.

Remainer's that feign ignorance that being part of the EU does not impact on Britain's sovereignty and democracy do not trump my democratic right to vote out in the Referendum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/6198513/EU-is-Britain-still-a-sovereign-state.html

Again...which laws? I'm not doubting you, it's just you don't seem to know what exactly you're angry about.

I'm voting out.  I am not going to waste my time on this thread any longer.

PATHETIC

And Leave is surely favourite now:

Ipsos MORI PHONE POLL:

Remain 47% (-11)
Leave 53% (+11)

What a swing, what an absolute battering for Remain.

I think this makes it 8 out of the last 10 polls have shown a lead for Leave, with 3 Leave leads on 4 telephone polls.

Duty281 wrote:All global financial markets are currently in decline, and this is nothing to do with the prospect of the people of the United Kingdom heroically slaying the European Union.

I mean, we could be talking about this instead:

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/15/germans-largest-bank-says-massive-uk-grown-brexit-bbc-remainers-silent/

You are one of the most ignorantly stupid people that I've seen posting in favour for leave.

"£100bn wiped off the value of Britain's biggest companies (FTSE 100s) in four days as Brexit fears roil markets".

"Investors offloaded risky equities in favour of safe-haven assets"

"Investors are fearful of the heightened prospect of a Brexit, which would worsen an already fragile global growth situation"

You just don't get it, and you have no reply to the below. Yet you leavers are living in some world that obviously doesn't involve intelligence.

The EU does not have any obligation to trade with us just because of our exports. What is of more risk to the EU states? The EU putting up trade barriers and tariffs to our exports (where they will likely land grab as much as they can as a result - financial sector springs to mind.. just the 17% of GDP) or letting us have access to the single market for free and not have to either pay in or abide by the rules? I'll answer - they'll simply make a massive example of us so no other nation attempts to leave. They would hammer us so hard up the arse our economy will not just fall over it will disintegrate. The pockets of EU states who support leaving the EU as well will simply be scared shi*less by what happens here.

The funny thing is after everything goes t|ts up it will be people like you that will be left in the wasteland that was once Great Britain. The rest of us will have long since departed for sunnier economic climates and will make you all well aware that you solved immigration because noone in their right mind would emmigrate to third world country!

If the polls are accurate (and let's face it, they've been wrong in the recent past) then leave have a disturbing lead.  I honestly cannot see the benefits of leaving the EU.  Everything I have read or argument I have heard in favour of leaving, has been based on some very loose points and really compared to the benefits of being in the EU seem rather meaningless.  However, I am fully in favour of remaining so perhaps that is selective on my part.

I'm far from  an expert on this (I doubt anyone can honestly claim to be, given the variables) but I do know that from my own perspective, if the UK votes to leave then the company I work for (massive multinational) is predicting a very bleak future and huge numbers of jobs being lost.  We're not releasing this info purely because it's not our place to influence one way or the other, but if we're predicting this then a number of organisations in the same industry will likely be in a similar boat.  Will be interesting to see how it all pans out, but chances are if we leave the EU there are going to be a lot of folk out of work a year or two down the line (will take a while to downsize or relocate).

Now I'm not trying to scare monger or threaten folk, as people should vote what they believe to be the right thing, but I expect that if the UK votes to leave then unemployment will sky rocket.

On a lighter note, we should all vote to stay in the EU because finally roaming charges are being scrapped as of next year on mobile costs in the EU.  It would really annoy me if we left just when you can use your phone in the EU without fear of bankruptcy when your next bill comes in

Is Australia a third World Country?

New Zealand?

EWT Spoons wrote:On a lighter note, we should all vote to stay in the EU because finally roaming charges are being scrapped as of next year on mobile costs in the EU.  It would really annoy me if we left just when you can use your phone in the EU without fear of bankruptcy when your next bill comes in

If you totted up the maximum possible average 'cost' of EU membership to each UK citizen, it'd probably still add up to less than what each saves on EU roaming charges!

SecretFly wrote:Is Australia a third World Country?

New Zealand?

Have they ever been part of the EU? You're insinuating that even though they're outside of the EU they do just fine.... Yet have they ever been part of the EU and been chastised/rogered for leaving it?

I really can't wait for this referendum to be over, am overly tired trying to debate with people whose mental intellect is somewhere near a 12 year olds.

Coxy001 wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Is Australia a third World Country?

New Zealand?

Have they ever been part of the EU? You're insinuating that even though they're outside of the EU they do just fine.... Yet have they ever been part of the EU and been chastised/rogered for leaving it?

I really can't wait for this referendum to be over, am overly tired trying to debate with people whose mental intellect is somewhere near a 12 year olds.

You're overcooking the 'Atlantis sinking into the Cold Northern Atlantic' bit, Coxy.  That's what I'm responding to.  If you claim it's the Leavers that act like the 12 year olds, then go easy on the picture book allusions to plagues, famine, pestilence and poverty.

Coxy001 wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Is Australia a third World Country?

New Zealand?

Have they ever been part of the EU? You're insinuating that even though they're outside of the EU they do just fine.... Yet have they ever been part of the EU and been chastised/rogered for leaving it?

I really can't wait for this referendum to be over, am overly tired trying to debate with people whose mental intellect is somewhere near a 12 year olds.

Most interesting thing anyone has said on the whole subject

SecretFly wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Is Australia a third World Country?

New Zealand?

Have they ever been part of the EU? You're insinuating that even though they're outside of the EU they do just fine.... Yet have they ever been part of the EU and been chastised/rogered for leaving it?

I really can't wait for this referendum to be over, am overly tired trying to debate with people whose mental intellect is somewhere near a 12 year olds.

You're overcooking the 'Atlantis sinking into the Cold Northern Atlantic' bit, Coxy.  That's what I'm responding to.  If you claim it's the Leavers that act like the 12 year olds, then go easy on the picture book allusions to plagues, famine, pestilence and poverty.

Am just pointing out that the leave campaign have been very vocal that we export a lot to mainland Europe. The rather large doomsday scenario is that these exports go down the drain (due to land grabbing, tariffs, barriers and so forth). In this scenario - "now, we are fuc*ed Tommy".

Coxy001 wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Is Australia a third World Country?

New Zealand?

Have they ever been part of the EU? You're insinuating that even though they're outside of the EU they do just fine.... Yet have they ever been part of the EU and been chastised/rogered for leaving it?

I really can't wait for this referendum to be over, am overly tired trying to debate with people whose mental intellect is somewhere near a 12 year olds.

You're overcooking the 'Atlantis sinking into the Cold Northern Atlantic' bit, Coxy.  That's what I'm responding to.  If you claim it's the Leavers that act like the 12 year olds, then go easy on the picture book allusions to plagues, famine, pestilence and poverty.

Am just pointing out that the leave campaign have been very vocal that we export a lot to mainland Europe. The rather large doomsday scenario is that these exports go down the drain (due to land grabbing, tariffs, barriers and so forth). In this scenario - "now, we are fuc*ed Tommy".

If tarrifs are applied. That isn't close to being certain.

Munchkin wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Is Australia a third World Country?

New Zealand?

Have they ever been part of the EU? You're insinuating that even though they're outside of the EU they do just fine.... Yet have they ever been part of the EU and been chastised/rogered for leaving it?

I really can't wait for this referendum to be over, am overly tired trying to debate with people whose mental intellect is somewhere near a 12 year olds.

You're overcooking the 'Atlantis sinking into the Cold Northern Atlantic' bit, Coxy.  That's what I'm responding to.  If you claim it's the Leavers that act like the 12 year olds, then go easy on the picture book allusions to plagues, famine, pestilence and poverty.

Am just pointing out that the leave campaign have been very vocal that we export a lot to mainland Europe. The rather large doomsday scenario is that these exports go down the drain (due to land grabbing, tariffs, barriers and so forth). In this scenario - "now, we are fuc*ed Tommy".

If tarrifs are applied. That isn't close to being certain.

Example:

China imposed a 47% import tariff on certain types of steel fairly recently. Duty has wrongly (how many times have we all said that) said that under WTO rules no state can impose penalty tariffs, yet to protect national interests they are allowed to impose pretty much whatever tariffs they want. What would there to stop the EU pushing through tariffs that make pretty much all our exports beyond expensive to sell that demand falls off the radar? The simple answer is, as evidenced, not a damn lot.

What happens then? BMW start crying, so the EU then gives them a nice big lump of money to build a new factory/expand current ones. They then stop crying and then start smiling and within a couple of years have shut their UK manufacturing base.

It is a very, very real scenario.

I don't think it is. Why would any Euro nation want to penalise a country they rely on for export? Why would any Euro nation impose tarrifs when free trade is a benefit to both?

I Repeat IF the UK leaves, they will still be slap/bang in Europe with too many intrinsic relationships formed at all levels - both business and personal - to be ignored or snubbed.  

IF the UK leaves, it's the EU itself that may (hopefully!) be forced to reassess a lot of things in order to re-stabilise the Project and therefore, in the process and in time, allowing or perhaps even inviting the UK back in.

The UK leaving would be an opportunity for the EU to re-evaluate a thing called Pragmatism.  The UK is in Europe.  IF it leaves, it certainly then won't be the last Nation to be coaxed or goaded to allow similar referendums in other Nations with even less than favourable views of the EU project as it stands.

IF the UK stay, the sky won't fall in.
IF the UK Leaves, the sky won't fall in.  BUT - because it is a true difference, the impulse can be seen as an opportunity for actually a better EU.

The UK staying in, to me, offers no such opportunity.  People become blasé and get on with their lives; and the EU chugs along as before, annoying the hell out of those that dislike it, drawing indifference from those that don't care.

Great post Fly.

If the UK leaves, then the EU will probably reform, but we won't be at the table to reform it.

Hero wrote:If the UK leaves, then the EU will probably reform, but we won't be at the table to reform it.

Yes, we want reform so we're going to give up any say in how things are run. Great stuff.

Ent wrote:

Hero wrote:If the UK leaves, then the EU will probably reform, but we won't be at the table to reform it.

Yes, we want reform so we're going to give up any say in how things are run. Great stuff.

What happens when you want change from inside?  You're told to shut up, you're in the minority, you're not going to stop the majority from progressing, you're sneered at ... by your very 'friends/partners/allies' (This has happened to the UK, for the younger posters here who might not recall or know about)

I don't see any motivation to make the changes necessary within EU to ease the growing Nationalist frictions (namely the EU accepting LESS central powers - LESS governmental controls)  
I don't see any desire within the EU bureaucratic leadership to accept the concept of watering down the complete EU project back to what it started out as - an economic cooperative pact between equal neighbouring Nations with common values.

Let some Remain voter tell me how the UK is going to bring about substantial structural changes to the EU from within the EU that it couldn't manage for as long as it's been part of the EU.  
Personal Nation-specific Special Vetos is no version of a truly reformed EU - it's just each European Nation looking out for itself and its own interests - ironically, the very instinct that the Remain voters claim should have no part of a Modern EU.

Munchkin wrote:I don't think it is. Why would any Euro nation want to penalise a country they rely on for export? Why would any Euro nation impose tarrifs when free trade is a benefit to both?

Did you read my last two posts?! I'll spell it out for you AGAIN, which do you think the EU is more likely to do:

Scenario 1) We leave. They give us completely free access to the single market with no (or low) tariffs, no blockers and we don't have to pay anything and don't have to accept freedom of movement. As a result the far right numpties across Europe see this happening and there is a massive drum being hit for "Why on earth do we have to be bound by rules, pay for membership when GB get it all for free????". The possibility of the EU disintegrating in this scenario is very high as other states would hold their own referendum to leave with the case study being GB having the best of both worlds.

Scenario 2) We leave and the EU, to make a massive example of us, tariffs and block us up the arse with trade deals. They sacrafice the short term issues of losing out on our exports for the greater long term stability of the EU. "Oh but I hear you say, we have the likes of BMW etc here" - well the EU could or would quite simply chuck a big wedge of cash for ze Germans to relocate their manufacturing plants to mainland Europe from GB. Again, short term pain of having to manufacture here but long term stability for the EU. In this scenario we are totally screwed as the EU flexes it much bigger muscles than we have individually and does a massive smash and run land grab.

Or are you not able to read more than 3 lines without getting distracted?

If the EU would be forced into reforms by a Brexit, why didn't Cameron succeed in his reform demands earlier this year. The EU understood the pressure Cameron was under to deliver these reforms, and they understood that a failure to deliver these reforms may provoke a UK withdrawal from the EU.

In the event of a Brexit the EU will be forced to reform, but there's little evidence to suggest that any meaningful reform will happen if Remain wins the day.

SecretFly wrote:...blasé....

If we leave there will be a tariff on using words like that.

Yeah... but sure none of you use it too much anyway Julius

Anyway, I've heard a lot of choice words used here in this thread that you'll all be able to put a tariff on going the other way: