PGA Tour: "I Know It's Time, But I Never Wanted It To End": Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).That may be Arnold Palmer's requiem to Masters participation, quoted by Jim Nantz yesterday as an epitaph for "Mr Palmer", but it's also pretty much how I felt about Sunday's Ryder Cup denouement.
It seemed an uphill task for Europe ever since Rory and Sully capitulated, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in their Friday morning foursomes match, losing 15, 16 & 17 with water balls and other ugliness to fall 1 Down.

2).The post-mortems have been written and it's not worth going over them again. Except to say how sad it was to see Westwood's extraordinary Ryder Cup career fizzle out, lw1 looking as utterly dejected as he was defeated on Sunday evening, hardly a fitting end that he should stroke/jab the losing putt. Hopefully he'll be back and winning tournaments again but that was not a pretty sight.

3).And a word about Hazeltine - despite Rose's protestions about course set-up, presumably by a Yorkshireman though clearly to LoveIII's instructions, I thought the course looked pretty good, well worthy of another Major Championship. Justin Rose will look back on a season where not much went right except for one Golden moment, and his putting last weekend was as poor as his "ball striking" was good. Course set-up is a two-way street and I would have thought that Le Golf National offered plenty of chances for Europe to exact revenge. If they're good enough and don't over-read putts like they did all last weekend long.

4).And Sergio & Phil: Magnifique.
Patrick Reed may have enjoyed two devastating 5-under-par in four holes streaks, but Sergio's match with Phil was as good as Round 4 of The Open at Troon. Congrats to both.

5).The thinking golfing press in the US is clearly concerned that the rush to sell tickets has caused crowds to be too big; perhaps things went over the edge this time round, but Bethpage in 2024 could take things to a new level if authorities can't/don't/won't figure this out. Not my original thoughts, but those expressed by the Golf Channel.

6).This week sees the web.com Tour Championship, the fourth tournament of the wTF series which constitutes a quasi-Q-School where 25 PGA Tour cards will be earned.
But Hurricane Matthew is likely to ruin the best laid plans and we haven't yet seen how the Tours will resolve the dilemma of much-delayed play if the forecast of heavy rain and strong winds prevails. After all, the newly minted Tour members are expected to be in the Napa Valley of California for Tour action on Thursday, Oct 13th. Watch this space.  

7).There will be some Europeans earning their cards, led by Andrew Johnston (a mildly amusing Beef ad for Arby's already interrupting golf broadcasts) and Gonzo. There's still the chance that Mansfield's Greg Owen, Sweden's Norlander and Mr.58, Stephan Jaeger, among others, might join them.

8).And certainly joining them will be Ben An, Danny Willett, Jon Rahm, Rafa C-B and Soren Kjeldsen.
Hopefully the European Tour and Ryder Cup gurus will ensure they get their arms around all those who could conceivably be eligible for Europe Ryder Cup play. Fingers crossed on that.

9).The third tournament in the wTF series was won "handsomely", though apparently somewhat toothlessly, by Grayson Murray, about whom I knew nothing. But here's a nice piece about him and his famous caddie, Mike Hicks:
http://www.pgatour.com/webcom/news/2016/09/25/grayson-murray-mike-hicks-nationwide-childrens-hospital-championship.html

Hopefully Murray's dental deficiences will be rectified by the time he tees it up on Tour as he'll likely be on TV a lot, even if just to show someone who pounds it out there as far as anyone.

10).Talking of which (driving distance not missing teeth), Congrats to Thomas Pieters. He's sure to be on the PGA Tour's radar in the hope that he'll bring his act to the US while his name and performance last week are still on viewers' minds. Even in defeat, good things come and it's time to embark on another 6-year stretch of Ryder Cup possession, hopefully with Rory & Pieters, an accidental partnership, leading the way.
Well done USA, Allez Europe.

That's interesting further analysis (that I couldn't be bothered doing myself ), thanks for the extra colour on the FEX change Robo.

Roller_Coaster wrote:That's interesting further analysis (that I couldn't be bothered doing myself  ), thanks for the extra colour on the FEX change Robo.

You're welcome... only thing I haven't gotten my head around is if the change will have any effect on the dual tour Euro's.  Seems that it's all "relative" as everybody's getting lower points for lower finishes, so the dual tour guys shouldn't be penalized any more than the full time guys just because they're making less starts.  I'm sure there will be some individual "winners" and "losers" with this change based on their specific distribution of placings... but not sure if, on average, # of starts by itself will be at any advantage or disadvantage from the past system. Somebody like GPB might be able to model some scenarios and determine if that's really the case or not.

One impact is for the players on major medicals.

For example Poulter has 10 tournaments to earn 218.4 FEX pts which was the 2016 Standard. He has to average 22 pts a tournament

In 2016, 49th place earned 22 pts. Now 36th place in 22 pts. That is a much tougher hurdle for the players to regain there tour card.

Fortunately for Poulter, he can still regain his tour card by earning $348,000 which theoretically should be easier with increasing purses.

GPB wrote:One impact is for the players on major medicals.

For example Poulter has 10 tournaments to earn 218.4 FEX pts which was the 2016 Standard.  He has to average 22 pts a tournament

In 2016, 49th place earned 22 pts.  Now 36th place in 22 pts.  That is a much tougher hurdle for the players to regain there tour card.  

Fortunately for Poulter, he can still regain his tour card by earning $348,000 which theoretically should be easier with increasing purses.

Good point... it seems to me it would be only fair that medicals should be based on the PAST system. I'll see if I can verify if the medical thresholds are based on old or new system.

Already inquired in the Medical extensions blog.

GPB wrote:Already inquired in the Medical extensions blog.

Oops.... OK... I missed that and already posted there and to my contact in PGAT membership...

No problem.

In the past (and this year), you can still regain your card by earning enough money. And that was based on the money list of the year a player goes out on medical.

As purses generally go up each year, the money standard gets easier with each passing year.

For anyone who hasn't seen it here is Tigers "vulnerable game" in action at a clinic yesterday.

https://twitter.com/stevelutton/status/785939737508929536

"...Veteran Members who are age 45 or older at any point during the current season, or Dual Members of both the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions..."

Can't imagine that there is a Dual Member of both the PGAT and PGAT Champions that is not a Veteran Member age 45 or over.

My first impression of the changes is favorable. I like the removal of the cut loophole. And players having to play different events.

The new FEX point system should encourage players that make the cut on the number to not mail it in on the weekend and try to keep the hammer down. But I think the difference between making the cut and missing the cut just got smaller which I don't think is a good thing.

What do you think should be worth more points in these 5 tournaments. IMO, Hypo#2 should be worth more pts

1. 4 Missed Cuts and a Solo 25th
2. or 5 Made Cuts and all finishes are Solo 55th

In the new system

Hypo#1 is worth 35.5 pts.
Hypo#2 is worth 30 pts.

In last years system

Hypo#1 is worth 46 pts
Hypo#2 is worth 80 pts

The FEX page of the PGATour has the new changes but I have seen any formal announcement.

http://www.pgatour.com/fedexcup/fedexcup-point-distribution--pga-tour-season.html

Its going to more difficult for a non-member to earn STM status.

GPB wrote:The FEX page of the PGATour has the new changes but I have seen any formal announcement.

http://www.pgatour.com/fedexcup/fedexcup-point-distribution--pga-tour-season.html

It must have been announced or discussed somewhere because I was aware there would be changes to the point allocations to "emphasize higher finishes"... even thought I didn't know exactly how that would be done until I saw this year's Tour regs.

And as far as you're two scenarios, I'm not sure I have an opinion on which is better... mainly because I don't think it really matters. I don't know this for sure... but I sense the point allocation changes have a lot less to do with regular season and a lot more to do with the playoffs and further reducing volitility. I have read/heard comments from players over recent years to the effect that they thought the extreme movements within the playoffs were de-emphasizing the regular season too much, and the value of lot of good season long work was being lost with the volatility of the playoffs.

This past season we saw some of that dealt with by going from 5x to 4x on playoff points... and my guess is this change will result in even less up and down movement throughout the playoffs standings except for maybe those top-10 spots which are still VERY subject to volatility. And since about $20 million of the FE money is actually a re-allocation of players retirement funds, I can understand that point of view.

GPB wrote:Its going to more difficult for a non-member to earn STM status.

How is that? I've been playing with scenarios and I can't figure out how this either negatively affects either dual tour players or those going for STM because it all seems "relative". Yes... the guy non-member playing less events will be getting less points for his lower finishes... but then so will all the full time guys as well. So while the guy going for STM might have less points... the bar he's gonna need to be above should be significantly lower.

Robo:

I haven't done any simulations but my guess is that players in 20th-25th positions going into the BMW are going to be more vulnerable of falling out of the Tour Championship with the new point system allocation.

IMO, the new point system is more volatile in the playoffs.

GPB wrote:Robo:  

I haven't done any simulations but my guess is that players in 20th-25th positions going into the BMW are going to be more vulnerable of falling out of the Tour Championship with the new point system allocation.

IMO, the new point system is more volatile in the playoffs.

That would be interesting to see... I guess the only way to really know would be to re-run a few BMW's under both point systems and see how it works out.  Something I don't have the time to do.

One thing I did do though.... I was wondering about how a STM situation may work.   My guess is STM might actually be easier to gain than harder because usually  STM is gained on a few very high finishes in less events... and since places 1-14 don't change points from last year they're still getting higher value

So I looked at #125 (Seung-Yul Noh) on the Season FE Points list and recalculated his points based on the new formula.  He finished with 454 points under the old system, and I have him right around 337 points under the new system. (about a 25% decrease).  I haven't done enough others to know if Noh is representative of how much the floor will drop next year or not.

Then I looked at Jon Rahm who finished with 481 non-member points in 7 events and using the new points he would still get 465. (a reduction of less than 4%)

So anyway... Rahm would have made his FE bar by 27 points under the old points system... he makes it by almost 130 under the new system (assuming Noh were still #125 with his 337, which I don't know is accurate)

And again... I don't know that Rahm is representative of the other STM cases... but I "sense" in general STM candidates loose LESS a % of their points because they are likely to have a higher percentage of high finishes.

One would expect quality of starts to be rewarded more richly under the new system, rather than quantity. That may suit "international" golfers who tend to compete less often on the PGA Tour. Surely?

kwinigolfer wrote:One would expect quality of starts to be rewarded more richly under the new system, rather than quantity. That may suit "international" golfers who tend to compete less often on the PGA Tour. Surely?

The more I get into this, the more it appears that way to me as well...

I was talking about getting STM status for the 2016-17 season only. SYN's 454 points is a bigger hurdle with 15% fewer points allocated to every tournament.

The hurdle is somewhat mitigated by the fact that high finishes are required to get STM.

Going forward, from the 2017-18 season and on-ward, I agree, the STM hurdle should be easier.

Emiliano Grillo wins RoY.

One would expect quality of starts to be rewarded more richly under the new system, rather than quantity. That may suit "international" golfers who tend to compete less often on the PGA Tour. Surely?

Considering that Int'l Golfers who compete less often on the tour are playing Majors, Players & WGCs, I agree.

One would hope it's the quality of finishes that is rewarded richly

Roller_Coaster wrote:One would hope it's the quality of finishes that is rewarded richly

That rules out any English players then...

Finishes too Roller_ . . . . . .

I see Poults is driving for dollars in Macau, sharing the first round lead. Wish he was playing at The Grove, second there at the WGC all those years ago.

kwinigolfer wrote:I see Poults is driving for dollars in Macau, sharing the first round lead. Wish he was playing at The Grove, second there at the WGC all those years ago.

As one of the four "Hosts", Poulter should not be playing a competing event to the British Masters. The Tournament Director and sponsors are probably not happy with Poulter. Wasn't he the official host last year?

GPB - I'm sure the sponsors are not "happy" but if Poulter was/is that important to them, they should have made it worth his while!

(Also, I do know someone who is in biz with Poulter and the far east is where this specific opportunity is ... so there may be more than just this weekend of golf for IJP.)

Poulter should have never signed as a tournament host then IMO. He has an obligation to the tournament.

And Yes, I am sure this trip includes marketing the butt ugly IJP clothing line.

GPB wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:I see Poults is driving for dollars in Macau, sharing the first round lead. Wish he was playing at The Grove, second there at the WGC all those years ago.

As one of the four "Hosts", Poulter should not be playing a competing event to the British Masters. The Tournament Director and sponsors are probably not happy with Poulter.  Wasn't he the official host last year?

Always thought Poulter was a pillock. This pretty much confirms it.

Maybe he needs a new Ferrari?

I didn't realize there was a set rotation of hosts for the British Masters... I thought it was a one and done kind of thing... didn't realize that should be some kind of lifetime obligation.

I have no problem with Poulter resuming his play in Macau... and if he has other business there...alll the more reason.

Just caught the tail end of a Casey interview where obviously the RC question had been asked. I know he's not the most likeable character but you could tell that he hurt by not being eligible. I must admit I do have sympathy with his view (to a point). Does anyone think his inclusion would not have benefitted Team Europe? If the selection criteria is to be changed how about a "Casey Clause" So... keep the current automatic 9 selection, then have a clause that says anyone in owgr 20 or better gets an automatic pick too (the vast majority in owgr top 20 would be in the 9 automatic picks anyway), then it's Captans picks.

McLaren wrote:

GPB wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:I see Poults is driving for dollars in Macau, sharing the first round lead. Wish he was playing at The Grove, second there at the WGC all those years ago.

As one of the four "Hosts", Poulter should not be playing a competing event to the British Masters. The Tournament Director and sponsors are probably not happy with Poulter.  Wasn't he the official host last year?

Always thought Poulter was a pillock.  This pretty much confirms it.

Who cares? He did his duty at Woburn, no reason for him to go to all the others just because he "hosted" Woburn.

super_realist wrote:

McLaren wrote:

GPB wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:I see Poults is driving for dollars in Macau, sharing the first round lead. Wish he was playing at The Grove, second there at the WGC all those years ago.

As one of the four "Hosts", Poulter should not be playing a competing event to the British Masters. The Tournament Director and sponsors are probably not happy with Poulter.  Wasn't he the official host last year?

Always thought Poulter was a pillock.  This pretty much confirms it.

Who cares? He did his duty at Woburn, no reason for him to go to all the others just because he "hosted" Woburn.

Don't imagine Lukey will be best pleased at him but, in the early stages of coming back from Injury I suppose he has to pick his battles. Don't think it's a big deal he's not there although it would probably have been better for European cameraderie if he had been.

Where do we think Westwood will take it next year? Close House? Archerfield? Worksop? Or maybe Hollinwell

He was talking about Close House but haven't heard anything for ages. And where will Rose go? Walton Heath perhaps??

I don't like the opting in / opting out idea re Casey, certainly don't think much of automatic picks just because someone is in the owgr Top 20. But the powers that be probably have to have some wiggle room if more players make their homes over here. Would Casey have been chosen by Clarke over LW, TP & MK? Doubt it.

I'm a huge admirer of Casey's golf, but he's a bit of a diva (just like Poults).

IMO the best thing for Europe RC interests would be along with Jacklin's comments. It should be the best Euros period. Imo that could be achieved by allowing up to 2 of the captain's picks to be non ET members. That still means 10 must be ET members which allows Pelley to at least mostly keep his golden handcuffs in place. And for now at least, I do understand why the ET needs those handcuffs.

How do you determine "the best Euros"? Just asking . . . . .
Who were the best this time around? Likely that everyone would have a different view on that.

Best Euros is still up to the captain. All I'm suggesting is if there's a non ET member Euro player out there the captain thinks can benefit his team... there needs to be a way to get that player on the team.

Bottom line for me is, I strongly believe at least some Euro players make decisions detrimental to their careers just to make the RC... primarily dual touring when I think single touring would benefit them better... and I think it's a shame.

Ah, Yes.
But you still have to adopt a criteria and it would not be good for any sense of continuity if each "captain" used different methods to judge his best. Unless you subscribed to 12 Captain's picks.

And: I strongly believe(!) that at least some Euro players make decisions detrimental to their careers just to play on the PGA Tour. At the very least a two-way street.

I have always believed that

Membership has its privileges (like being eligible for the RC team)

and its obligations. (Membership on the Tour)

I don't think playing 5 non-co-sanctioned events is that onerous. These dual tour guys play 25-28 tournaments a year. That is about 50% of the weeks.

I know people who travel 40+ weeks a year and make far less money. BUCK UP.

Doesn't Casey still have a residence in England?

I used to travel more than "40 weeks a year" and made far "far less money". F*CKed up, not buck up!.

kwinigolfer wrote:Ah, Yes.
But you still have to adopt a criteria and it would not be good for any sense of continuity if each "captain" used different methods to judge his best. Unless you subscribed to 12 Captain's picks.

And: I strongly believe(!) that at least some Euro players make decisions detrimental to their careers just to play on the PGA Tour. At the very least a two-way street.

A captain should be able to use his judgement.. period.

And I 100% agree with your comments re PGAT isn't right for everyone... Especially for the more marginal player that thinks he can dual tour. IMO many would be far better off choosing one or the other

It's going to be a tight squeeze to get the Safeway action finished by Sunday evening, with light rain Friday followed by heavier rain borne on stronger winds on Saturday and possibly Sunday.
Only eleven hours of "sunlight" and, for some, a flight to Kuala Lumpur in prospect. Wouldn't it work better if the two Asian tournaments were staged before any US new season tournaments? Even if the Tour DID have to reduce the size of the Silverado field.

GPB wrote:I have always believed that

Membership has its privileges (like being eligible for the RC team)

and its obligations.  (Membership on the Tour)

I don't think playing 5 non-co-sanctioned events is that onerous.  These dual tour guys play 25-28 tournaments a year.  That is about 50% of the weeks.

I know people who travel 40+ weeks a year and make far less money.  BUCK UP.

Doesn't Casey still have a residence in England?

that's my whole point... I don't believe the RC should be a tour vs tour thing... If I did then IMO PGAT euro members should be ineligible and vice versa.  I believe it should be USA vs Europe... Wherever those players may live or tour.  And that would include the other way as well.  If say a David Oh was tearing up the Japan, Asian or Euro tour and not a PGAT member, he should still be eligible for a captain's pick.

robo,
But you have to remember it's the PGA Of America Team vs the European Tour Team - I know that's loud and clear, but still worth bearing in mind as either side looks for tweaks. You know as well as I do that David Oh would never get a "pick" if he wasn't a Tour player.

Lights out scoring at Johnny Miller's place.

kwinigolfer wrote:robo,
But you have to remember it's the PGA Of America Team vs the European Tour Team - I know that's loud and clear, but still worth bearing in mind as either side looks for tweaks. You know as well as I do that David Oh would never get a "pick" if he wasn't a Tour player.

Lights out scoring at Johnny Miller's place.

But it's not the PGA of A team vs the European team...
Otherwise Paul Casey or Carl Pettersen could play for us.

And perhaps Oh was a bad example. But what if say Chase Koepka won 3 decent ET events in the months leading up to the selections?  IMO he should be eligible. That doesn't mean he would necessarily be selected, but IMO he shouldn't be ineligible for consideration.

Edit:. &$#@$ spell check... It's Chase Koepka, not Casey

The LA Tournament has a 144 player field and it is typically played when there is less daylight than now.  8 weeks after the Winters Solstice vs 9 weeks prior to the solstice for this week.

I have no idea what other courses are available in the Napa Valley, but the tour could go to a second course (like San Diego and Sea Island) for Rounds 1&2 and have a 156 player field.  Looks like about 4 WTF did not get into the field.  (Munoz, Dahmon, Percy, Wilkinsin)

Better yet, they could just play faster.  Last tee time was 2 pm today and sunset is about 6:30.  If it is business as usual on the PGATour, there is NFW that the last group is going to finish 18 holes in 4.5 hours.

In three weeks time I doubt if they get 132 players around TPC Summerlin.

===========

Incidentally, I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere, the 2017 Wells Fargo tournament is being played in Wilmington NC (Eagle Point).  And Wilmington was in Hurricane Matthew's path of destruction.

Seen some tweets about the Sea Island and Hilton Head courses but I would guess that Eagle Point could have had as much damage (or more).

==========

Edit: Did anyone else notice that Rahm's is still projected at #148 in the FEX list, as of 6:30 pm Napa Time.

robo,
You misquoted me, "European Tour Team".

Sounds as if this week's SAS action is good to go.

"Europe" in stead of ET will not happen anytime soon. But I beleive alliowing ONE captains pick (making it 4 in total like the US) to be a non ET member may happen sooner than later.
Even though Bjorn is a big ET man and has been the players committee chair for ages his ego should be big enough to do what it takes to ensure he gets the strongest team he can for 2018, regardless of whether it's in the ET's interest or not.
(Assuming Bjorn will get the gig.) The lack of depth in this years team was clearly a decisive factor and we can not allow that to happen in the long run.

Can't argue with that!

64 Thursday, 73 Friday. Whatever next for Ian Poulter, now T11 but only three strokes off the Macau lead.

They confirmed on the American broadcast just now that Westwood would be hosting at Close House next year...

Kwini... got out to The Woodlands 1st stage qualifier for just a bit yesterday... just long enough to watch the son of friends or ours, Fred Wedel play a few holes... and another guy living here by the name of Taylor Dio. Man... both these guys looked so good... but don't they ALL anymore. Incredible the talent that's out there these days. They're both T20 and 1 ahead of the number needed to advance going into the final round, but I probably won't get out there at all today.

GPB... I was wondering a bit more about potential "volatility" in the playoffs due to the FE point change.  I don't really have the ability to easily auto-model it, nor the time to do it manually.  But... you had mentioned that you thought #25 going into the BMW would be more vulnerable than less.  From the few I spot checked... it seems to me yes and no.

Depending on where you place #25's finish in the BMW, it does appear as though he's generally MORE vulnerable to get passed by the next roughly 10-12 guys immediately behind him at the start (#26-35)... but then probably less vulnerable to those after that.  Again, it moves all over the place depending on where you put #25's finish in the BMW... so I can't say for certain even the above is correct.

But on the STM's... IF the floor drops to the 350 points range for equivalent #125... from my checking non-member qualifying for STM MIGHT generally be easier... The guys I checked who made it would have made it by a wider margin.  BUT... more than I expected of the guys who were close and didn't make it still wouldn't have.  I would still expect a net gain, but not a huge gain.

BUT, any gain of players by STM via FedEx points under this new points scheme might be mitigated by the loss of players not gaining STM via top-125 money list... especially for WGC and Major qualified Euro's.  Low finishes in those no cut WGC's are way less valuable in new FE Points scheme than they were, and the generous lower finish WGC money doesn't count any more.

Thanks for The Woodlands update, robo; not familiar with young Fred but I see Sean Jacklin's still plugging away and an Englishman named Kelvin Day (had a w.com card 2015) is just outside the qualifying number after 54 holes. Wotsit with Cory Whitsett, I thought he was good??!!

On the other side of the these young guns are good ledger: We followed a threesome at Hartford last year including Heath Slocum. He hit some shots that would be out pf place in the Club Championship, just awful, almost embarrassing.