2017 Predictions

What do people think? Suggest responses follow a pattern of:

Slam winners;
YE top 5;
One to watch (who we should all keep an eye on for big improvements); and
Other (any other zany prediction you wish to make).

I will then try and summarise collective thoughts in this article.

AO: Djokovic
FO: Nadal
Wimbledon: Raonic
USO: Del Porto

YE top 5: Djokovic, Nadal, Del Potro, Raonic, Murray

Sasha Zverev to make at least one slam semi and break into top 10.

Australian Open: Andy Murray

French Open: Novak Djokovic

Wimbledon: Andy Murray

US Open: Stan Wawrinka

Year Ending Top 5: Murray, Djokovic, Raonic, Wawrinka, Nadal

One to Watch: Juan Martin Del Potro - I can see him possibly reaching a slam final. Upcoming player I will say Kyle Edmund to maybe get near to top 20.

AO - Djoko
French - Nadal
Wimbledon - Djoko
USO - Murray

Y-ending top 5 - Djoko, Murray, Nadal, Raonic, Wawrinka

One to watch - Taylor Fritz. Big American who has already broken into top 100.

Other - Last season for Fed? Hope not, but an average year could see him bowing out at Basle in the autumn.

Oddly enough I'm expecting a rejuvenated/slightly reinvented Nadal.

AO Djokovic vs Murray...Djoko W
RG Nadal vs Wawrinka...Nadal W
SW Murray vs Nadal...Nadal W
US Djokovic vs Murray...Djoko W

Ok...a little rose tinted yes but generally when Nadal is on form Murray doesn't do well against him. But Murray could avoid him.

In absolute reality...I'd say Djoko gets 2, Murray 1, Nadal/Wawrinka the other. Then all major change from 2018...

Lol Lydian,

Do you really think Rafa's gonna win W?

AO - Murray
FO - Djokovic
W - Federer
USO - Murray or possibly a new slam champ

AO - Murray
FO - Djokovic
W - Murray
USO - Raonic

YE top 5:
1 - Djokovic
2 - Murray
3 - Raonic
4 - Thiem
5 - Del Potro

One to watch - slightly biased, but I'm hoping Kyle Edmund can really push on. Slam QF or two would be nice.

AO: Wawrinka
RG: Murray
Wimbledon: Federer
USO: Djokovic

1) Murray 2) Djokovic 3) Federer 4) Raonic 5) Wawrinka

Murray I believe can have another strong season however I don't see him being dominant in the way previous #1s have done. His clay court game has improved immensely in recent times and as such I can see the RG title being a big target.

Djokovic is far from finished. I think there were a number of factors that plagued him after winning RG but the old Novak is still within him. He's always taken good care of himself physically so I don't see why this is necessarily the start of his decline. Nevertheless, he has always been a confidence player, without it he is flaky. I wouldn't be surprised if it takes him another 6 months to rebuild that confidence before hitting form towards the end of 2017.

Stan of course is a bit of an enigma but he certainly has belief in himself to win the big tournaments and if he can do it in New York I don't see why not in Melbourne. I don't think he'll find any consistency outside the slams though.

It is on Federer where I seem to differ from the rest of the forum. Admittely Wimbledon is a romantic pick, but I'm still optimistic he can challenge Andy and Novak. Before his bathtub incident earlier this year, I thought his level in Melbourne was the highest I'd seen from him in a long time (it required a "God-mode" Novak to take him out) and even at Wimbledon he nearly made the final despite clearly not being 100%. I don't think he'd still be in this game if he thought he couldn't compete any longer.

Raonic appears the best of the rest to me and could do well in the rankings but think he'd need a bit of luck to win a slam. As for Nadal, I'd never write the guy off but his last slam SF was in June 2014 and I'm not sure the fire is still there. No one will want to see him in their draw for RG but I don't think 2017 will be much different to 2016 for Rafa. We'd all love to see Del Potro back close to his best but there's still too much uncertainty over injuries for me to place him at the top table.

I agree with Lydian it will be 2018 when we finally see the old Big 4 step down and pass the baton to the likes of Raonic, Thiem and Zverev.

I'm also optimistic about Federer - he's ageing so well.

If he can stay fit he's a major threat at W and the USO

AO - Murray or Djoko
FO - Nadal
Wimbledon - Murray or Raonic
USO - Delpo or Cilic

1) Murray 2) Djoko 3) Nadal 4) Raonic 5) Stan

AO: Murray bt Djokovic
RG: Djokovic bt Thiem
W: Murray by Federer
US: Del Potro bt Murray

1) Murray
2) Djokovic
3) Del Potro
4) Raonic
5) Federer

To watch - Khachanov, Fritz, Kozlov, Shapovalov

emancipator wrote:Lol Lydian,

Do you really think Rafa's gonna win W?

AO - Murray
FO - Djokovic
W - Federer
USO - Murray or possibly a new slam champ

Lol, ditto re Fed and Wimb.
I think we both hope our guys can have one last push for a slam.
For Nadal, RG obviously his best chance.
If I'm honest I do wonder if Nadal is a busted flush now, too many off times and comebacks and slower now by a good yard. It's a wonder these guys are still near the top because for Nadal and Federer, their 10 year younger versions would murder them!

emancipator wrote:I'm also optimistic about Federer - he's ageing so well.

If he can stay fit he's a major threat at W and the USO

I don't think fitness is the issue, I'm suspecting he's going to be a fair bit slower having been out of action and time is marching on. Faster surfaces and that serve may take him far though, after all Pete was noticeably slower when he won US2002.

theslosty wrote:
Djokovic is far from finished. I think there were a number of factors that plagued him after winning RG but the old Novak is still within him. He's always taken good care of himself physically so I don't see why this is necessarily the start of his decline. Nevertheless, he has always been a confidence player, without it he is flaky. I wouldn't be surprised if it takes him another 6 months to rebuild that confidence before hitting form towards the end of 2017.

Djokovic is a curious case.

With his appointment of the "guru" and his new "I love everyone" focus, promoted by Pepe Imaz...have you seen the guy?, I really wonder what's going on with his motivation and head to even have a guy like this in his corner. Look at this guys home web page:



What is Djokovic thinking? Clearly he feels he's led a life that's not been "wholesome" for him as a person, so he's taken this radical approach. What is clear is that he's come to some kind of crossroads and questioning life and his place in it. That's all well and good if you're Joe Average on the street, or even Joe Average tennis player, but I'm not convinced this philosophy is compatible with having an absolute ruthless focus required for being a slam winning tennis player.

In physical terms, he looks like he's lost a fair bit of muscle to me, looking thinnner and with more sunken eyes. I've seen photos comparing now to 18 months ago and it's clear to me. So for me all is not well with his training and focus. He's also well on the way to 900 matches now, he doesn't seem to have the same desire as before and with this new "love, peace man" approach I wonder if his best days are behind him.

Something has fundamentally changed inside him. So reckon he'll win at best 1 more slam. I can even see him retiring from the sport at this rate. That said, the field isn't as strong as it used to be either so the bar to success has been lowered vs yesteryear and the "Big 4" so who knows what he can still achieve from 80% desire and focus vs his peak.

I don't know is switching to a vegan diet the cause for him thinning down. He's also suffering from injuries I think. I do feel he's starting his physical decline as six years of non stop playing at a high level will take its toll on the body. After achieving the career slam, his motivation may have waned a little and coupled with physical injuries, may have affected his mindset and approach towards his career. According to him he also had his personal issues (that hopefully were resolved by now).

I think Delpo, Cilic and Raonic will be dangerous at the slams in 2017; I do hope the big four can have at least one more good year in 2017 before the big four is no more.

To be pretty obvious the 'big four' was disbanded by 2015 as since then Nadal and Federer have ceased to be regulars at the business end of slams.

Federer's last four slam results are F, F, SF and SF. It took Djokovic to beat him in three of those. If he comes back in that form he will still be a threat at the business end of slams.

A good range of predictions here. I actually think this is a very tough year to predict given Novak's questionable form, Andy's unknown reaction to being top dog and Fedal's recoveries from injury. That said, I find it hard to see anyone other than the big 4 plus Stan winning a slam. I'm going for:

Oz - Murray def Wawrinka : my head really says Novak here but I think it's so crucial for the rest of Andy's career to win here that I can't pick against him.

French - Novak def Andy : I think this is too tough a matchup for Andy on clay. If Novak is back (as I expect him to be) he's clear favourite for the French.

Wim - Andy def Fed : Fed played his best ever match at Wimbledon to beat Andy in 2015 and if he can get back to that level again he will be very tough to stop. Query though whether at nearly 36 he will be able to get through Novak and Andy if required.

US - Novak def Zverev : I'm picking Zverev to be the first youngster to make a slam final but Novak to just have too much for him.

YE Top 5

1. Novak
2. Andy
3. Federer
4. Del Potro
5. Zverev

Other predictions:

- Kyrgios to make a slam SF and be in the top 10 at year end (or, if he takes a different route, get defaulted from a match and banned)

- Rafa to be competitive on clay but lose to Novak or Andy at the French. No titles off clay.

- Kozlov, Tsitsipas and Duckhee Lee to be top 100. Fritz to reach the top 40. Khachanov to be top 20 and make a slam QF.

- Hopefully, Kokkinakis to recover from his injuries and be top 50 year end. Sad to see such a promising player (and the only young Aussie ironically who doesn't seem a complete Kokk) miss an entire year at his age.

Born Slippy wrote:Federer's last four slam results are F, F, SF and SF. It took Djokovic to beat him in three of those. If he comes back in that form he will still be a threat at the business end of slams.

But Nadal has not - hence no longer a big four.

mm predicting a losing finalist is too hard. It's one thing - and hard enough - to predict who will be the best player in a given slam quite another to predict the losing finalist. The losing finalist is not necessarily the second best player at the tournament, but just the best player in the other half: it depends on draw. Half of your predictions for finalists will be invalidated the second the draw is made. I think just predicting the winner is hard enough.

Still, for those of you bold enough to predict the finalist I'll give you bonus points if your finalist pick loses to the eventual winner in a tight semi or quarter.

Australian Open - Murray
French Open - Djokovic
Wimbledon - Murray
US Open - Raonic

I am not fully convinced Murray can win both the AO, and Wimbledon, but if I think he will get at least one slam and if I predict him for those two I'll likely get at least one right.

I predict Djokovic will fail to make the semi at the Australian Open, before eventually pulling it together to have a good clay season.

I think at least one slam will be won by a youngster (I include the likes of Nishikori as youngsters) or a surprise player. I've gone for Raonic at the US Open in my specific predictions, but it could just as easily be Nishikori or one of the younger generation.

1 Murray
2 Djokovic
3 Nadal
4 Raonic
5 Thiem

I think Nishikori and Zverev and Del Potro are the other contenders for the top five.

Del Potro to win a masters and/or reach a slam final, but just to run out of steam physically and come up short of winning a slam. He can get in the top 5 rankings as well if he wants, but I'm hoping he's smart enough to find the excuses to skip a couple of masters and so on, and stay in shape. His playing style hasn't changed much and the wrist could flare up again if he over plays.

For Federer, I predict this will be the year where the body cannot keep up with the talent, another injury, and no slams, but maybe a final or a semi final. Finishes season ranked 6-8.

I am not really confident of my preditions, though. I think this year will be more open, so harder to call.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:I don't know is switching to a vegan diet the cause for him thinning down. He's also suffering from injuries I think.  I do feel he's starting his physical decline as six years of non stop playing at a high level will take its toll on the body.  After achieving the career slam, his motivation may have waned a little and coupled with physical injuries, may have affected his mindset and approach towards his career.  According to him he also had his personal issues (that hopefully were resolved by now).

Interesting how Djokovic wins all four slams on a vegan diet, and no-one on the forum mentions that as a possible role in his success. But now he's in decline, it gets listed by someone as a possible reason for decline. This a typical of the bias that vegan diets have to face because they are new and challenging traditions and the mainstream.

Actually, it's easy to thrive on a vegan diet and there are many examples of everything from vegan ultrarunners to vegan bodybuilders.

Huh? No where in my post did I mention that he was in decline because of his vegan diet! I said he's thinning down because of the vegan diet when someone mentioned he looked thinner these days. Could you read carefully and not made any unnecessary assumptions??

Not sure this should be on the predictions thread but here is a good piece on Murray, including the info that he was perceived as having good court craft AT THE AGE OF SIX.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/sport/2016/11/andy-murrays-grumpy-anti-genius-has-fuelled-his-rise-top

lydian wrote:

emancipator wrote:Lol Lydian,

Do you really think Rafa's gonna win W?

AO - Murray
FO - Djokovic
W - Federer
USO - Murray or possibly a new slam champ

Lol, ditto re Fed and Wimb.
I think we both hope our guys can have one last push for a slam.
For Nadal, RG obviously his best chance.
If I'm honest I do wonder if Nadal is a busted flush now, too many off times and comebacks and slower now by a good yard. It's a wonder these guys are still near the top because for Nadal and Federer, their 10 year younger versions would murder them!

Slight difference.

Fed's gone F,F,SF at W for the last three seasons and, had it not been for Djokovic having one of the most dominant runs in tennis history, would have had 2 W titles in that period - Rafa hasn't been past the 4rth round since 2011!

I can understand making a case for Rafa at the FO - he'll always be a contender there, but W? Don't see it.

Agree with Born Slippy that Federer is a contender at W and the USO if he can stay fit, albeit I take Lydian's point that he may be slower (likely will be), but then Fed has been slow now for a number of years. However, he more than anyone else can compensate for the loss of speed on the baseline because he has the ability to take the ball so early on a consistent basis and thus dictate play a la Andre Agassi.

Well 2016 wasn't too shabby - historic achievement for Djokovic in winning French Open, Murray's v successful reignited partnership with Lendl propelling him to Wimbledon, Olympic Gold and year end number 1, more brilliance from Wawrinka, this time at US Open, Del Potro's exploits for his country at Olympics and Davis Cup and the blossoming of Thiem's talent. And lets not forget Nadal's doubles Gold medal triumph in the Olympics, Raonic turning into a more rounded player (and genuine slam contender) and Nishikori putting in another decent year.

Onto 2017, and what should be a massive opportunity for Murray. The Aus Open is a title he really should have won already and with his confidence sky-high back with Lendl, I think he'll take it next year. Moving on to the French Open, unless injury/loss of form/lack of confidence is a major issue, Djokovic has to be a strong favourite. Murray has really improved on clay last 2 or 3 years but I still think Djokovic is too far ahead of him on the surface. Nadal of course could still win it but he's not the player he was and there's probably 4 players in the draw who could beat him. If Nadal loses early at Roland Garros I think he'll call it a day and retire from the game. Wawrinka would probably be 2nd favourite for me but of course more likely to lose en-route to the final than the other top players.

Grass is probably Murray's best surface and I can't really see anyone beating him at Wimbledon unless someone has an absolute red-hot performance. Federer, if uninjured, could reach the semis. US Open feels very open to me - any one of Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Cilic, Del Potro, Nishikori or Raonic could win it - I'll go for Del Potro.

AUS OPEN: Murray to defeat either Nishikori or Del Potro
FRENCH OPEN: Djokovic to defeat Thiem or Murray, or Wawrinka to defeat Djokovic or Thiem
WIMBLEDON: Murray to defeat Djokovic or Raonic
US OPEN: Del Potro to defeat Nishikori or Raonic

I reckon Federer will lose in quarters at Aus Open, 3rd or 4th round at French Open, reach semis at Wimbledon, and quarters at US Open, and will qualify for year end ATP finals before calling it a day in 2018. Nadal will retire before end of 2017 unless he wins or reaches final at Roland Garros. I reckon Zverev and Thiem will both win a Masters title each, and that Kyrgios won't be a factor most of the year, but make a good run at either Wimbledon or US Open. France to win the Davis Cup.

Why would Rafa retire in 2017? He's already stated that he'd like to play for years to come. He enjoys competing - that may be enough for him. Besides, the tour isn't exactly red hot at the moment. A couple of the top dogs slip up, Rafa finds some consistency, and suddenly he's got every chance of more titles (just not W

I find these premature speculations about early retirement bizarre. They're baseless - it's not like Rafa has indicated that he's looking to retire soon. We had the same predictions about Federer from at least 2014 - and he's still playing 3 years later.

Forgot to put up my prediction for top 5 at end of year...

1. Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Raonic
4. Thiem
5. Wawrinka

Fed and Rafa are the difficulties when it comes to making predictions for 2017. For 2016 no one could foresee that Rog would hardly play and that Rafa would also have a shortened season.
For 2017, everyone is unsure just what sort of comebacks these two can/will make. If Rafa plays anything like a full season, I think he will be top five, in that he's likely to rake in a goodly number of clay-court points.
Despite what some are saying, Rog faces, I think, a tougher time than Rafa. He's been out for longer and he's five years older. But if the Swiss can play reasonably regularly and is pain free then he could well be top five as well.

Rafa wont retire anytime soon. Its strange that in the past most people including his fans thought that when Rafa failed to win anything big, he might retire. Nowadays, it looks like Rafa is more and more like Fed, ie he enjoys playing and competing despite not winning any majors.

I do feel that Rafa still can win on clay, may not dominate but can win some big titles like MC or Madrid and a good chance at RG like Stan and Djoko. If he desires, he can play more clay events like Hamburg plus some 250 events so remaining in top ten or top eight or even top five is very possible.

If Fed plays well enough he still can do well on quicker courts like Dubai, Halle, Wimbledon, Cincy, USO, Shanghai, Basel, Paris - good enough to get a good ranking maybe. His best chance for a slam is still at Wimbledon but Murray may be a tough opponent there, together with Djoko, Raonic and Cilic.

re Rafa's retirement I think he said once his last tournament would be in Madrid or Barcelona whenever he retires.

Difficult year to predict. Old top is slowly falling apart, yet new guys are not yet stepping up, which leaves many possibilities.

My guesses:
AO: Raonic
FO: Murray
W: Cilic
USO: Nishikori

It is all kind of random to be honest, banking on Nole falling apart rather than regrouping and somewhat randomly picking second tier players - especially Cilic and Nishi are just my random additions.

YE top 5:
1. Murray
2. Raonic
3. Nishikori
4. Djokovic
5. Nadal

One to watch: Kyle Edmund. I am not saying he will ever become a world beater but sometimes I feel he is a little underappreciated. He is among the youngest guys in top 50 and has been improving nicely. Why not top 20 by YE?

A few more:
- Fed reaching no slam finals
- Rafa likewise
- Kyrgios either reaching top 7 or dropping out of top 50
- Goffin out of top 20
- Ferrer retiring
- Zverev in top 10

I think that Murray & Djokovic will share out the slams; 2 each. Don't know who wins which though.

Year end top 5
Murray
Djokovic
Raonic
Del Potro (if injury free)
Nishikori

Just too hard to predict this time around. Too much uncertainty over Djokovic now and Nadal and Federer on the wane. You would have to think this is a chance for Murray to at least win a couple of slams. Hard to imagine that Murray could go the rest of his career without winning the Oz open.

My Tips:

Oz open Murray (outsider bet, Nishikori)
French Wawrinka
Wimbledon Murray
US Open Federer (just have a feeling he might just have a fairytale win at the end of his career like
Sampras did)

If Djokovic returns to form this year then you could maybe throw him in for the French open

Just a thought but has anybody won all the grand slams twice or more? If Djokovic was to win the French open in 2017, would that make him the only player to have won all slams at least twice, anybody know off the top of their head rather than have to go to the hassle of researching!

slashermcguirk wrote:Just a thought but has anybody won all the grand slams twice or more? If Djokovic was to win the French open in 2017, would that make him the only player to have won all slams at least twice, anybody know off the top of their head rather than have to go to the hassle of researching!

Certainly nobody has completed that feat in the open era and I'd guess it is a fairly safe bet that nobody has ever done it.

EDIT Rod Laver has done it. 3 Australian Opens, 2 French Opens, 4 Wimbledons and 2 US Opens.

Thanks CC...........good old Rod Laver, I should have known he would have done it ! I suppose it would still be amazing to be the only player in the open era to do it.

slashermcguirk wrote:Thanks CC...........good old Rod Laver, I should have known he would have done it ! I suppose it would still be amazing to be the only player in the open era to do it.

It would certainly be a feather in his cap. I know Novak has spoken about his motivational issues but setting goals like these or even Rafa then Roger's slam totals should be the sort of thing he should be aiming for just to keep his focus/interest in the sport. I think it would help him greatly.

Nadal for the FO. If his wrist is ok he will do well at the FO. Djoko no longer the player he was of 2015; furthermore Nadal has/had the tendency to do well, played more aggressively at the FO, regardless of how he fared at the clay masters (Djoko beat him at MC2013, Rome 2014 yet come the FO, he beat Djoko both times). He's unlucky to have his wrist injury that he had to pull out of the FO this year when he was playing well again on clay.

Andy Murray has just been voted BBC Sports Personality of the Year for 2016 - third time he's won. Frankly, it would have been astonishing it he'd not won given the year he's had.

Well, some of those predictions are looking a little out of sink

emancipator wrote:I'm also optimistic about Federer - he's ageing so well.

He is, isn't he?  Hopefully you are right about his Wimbledon

The season is still young, but there is only one player now with a chance to win the CYGS.

emancipator wrote:Well, some of those predictions are looking a little out of sink

Yes, the big imponderable about 2017 was how Rafa and Rog would do in their comebacks. I would still have fancied Rafa for the French even if he had not done well at Melbourne. The good news for the other top guys is that Rafa is up to 6th in the rankings and could be higher by the start of the clay-court season, so they won't have to face him so early in the spring tournaments.
With 2,000 points already in the bag, Fed can cherry pick his tournaments this year, so he can peak for the big ones. Like Murray over the next few weeks, Fed will only have to win a match to see his points tally improve.
Dimi was mighty impressive at the AO and could be a big threat this year. Similarly A Zverev. What about Djoko? He's got a stack of points to defend between now and the end of the French. A poor run (even getting to semis will see a big points loss) and he could be out of the top four.
Amazing how things can turn round. After the French last year, all the talk was of Djoko's dominance. Since then three different guys have won Slams.

summerblues wrote:Difficult year to predict.  Old top is slowly falling apart, yet new guys are not yet stepping up, which leaves many possibilities.

...

A few more:
- Fed reaching no slam finals
- Rafa likewise
...

Rafa 2/2

this thread shows how predictions are many times difficult to make... who would have thought...

really astonishing from roger and rafa

will 2018 bring something similar to those absent now?

Fascinating to read the predictions almost a year on. The imponderables were how to judge Rafa and Rog's form and fitness.
   Of course, those forecasting what might happen in 2018 will have a similar problem as no one has a good idea how the absentees - Andy M, Djoko, Stan, Nishi - may do.
   Full marks to those who predicted another Wimbledon triumph for Fed in 2017. I reckon it was always going to be a safe bet to opt for Rafa for the French. 
   Taking a deep breath, I'm now going to forecast that Djoko will win a Slam in 2018.

My predictions were absolute rubbish. THe prediction above that Rafa and Fed would not reach a slam final was also somewhat unfortunate. Rafa to have a good year and win two slam, good one from Lydian.

I demand some credit for predicting Shapovalov as one to watch.

Credit must go to Guest82 for predicting Shapovalov as one to watch.