The Future for the PRO12 - Part 3 - The Union Balldance

First topic message reminder :

I stepped out and she stepped in again
I stepped out and she stepped in again
learning to dance for Lanigan's Ball


In thinking about recent goings-on at union level within the PRO12, I was reminded of the lyrics of this old song as unions, corporate interests, private investors, Welsh benefactors, and sundry money-makers make their various moves on the PRO12 dance floor.  Scotland and Ireland seem to be bashfully eyeing up the investor lads on one side of the hall, fluttering their eyelashes, whilst on the other side, the Welsh bennys (as they're affectionately known ) are making tapes and throwing shapes, whilst secretly hoping eagerly that they might get a chance to sign the WRU's card for a dance or two.  Meanwhile, the Italians dither in the middle wondering where they should be but won't tell anyone that they don't know even the music.  

But for now the band has taken a break whilst the visiting Europeans and Anglo heavies make their way onto the floor to start their version of French/Anglo hopscotch involving a number of bulky partners, foreign tap dancers, celtic coaches, and comic millionaires.

It's a good a time as any for a quick cuppa and a chance to talk about where the PRO12 is going with all the plans for expansion to US and Europe suddenly gone quiet, some league quality improvements, big weekend derbies, more neutral officials, and what else is on the horizon for upcoming changes within the PRO12.

The looming spectre of dwindling money and funding ever more expensive teams for the future seems to be the next big issue and where that is all going to come from.   Hopes of improved TV deals, better sponsors and business supporters of the league remain a distant aspiration - although the recent appointment of a commercial director to work alongside Martin Anayi on securing the best deals possible seems to be a step in the right direction.  Some are holding their whisth on that one.

Ownership and financing of the teams themselves is the most urgent and vexing issue facing the four unions operating in the PRO12.  Over the last number of months, the SRU have been making a lot of noise and some news headlines with their plans to bring in private investment to its two Scottish clubs to help meet some of the ongoing costs involved.   The SRU says it can't continue to finance the two teams at current levels of revenue and costs, and they need to bring in private investors/business to meet a substantial portion of the costs in return for a stake in one or both of the two clubs.  How much that stake would be is not clear as the SRU would want to keep their hand in the two clubs responsible for generating its line of test players, but whether that would be a 51% stake or less remains to be seen.   A voting process in late 2016 saw members give the green light to the Scottish Union to pursue this path of identifying and securing potential investment but only time will tell if it will draw in any worthwhile investors.

Italian rugby seems to lurch from one crisis to the next with the FIR having to bail out both Treviso and Zebre in recent times with substantial commitments of money.  After the last crisis, which saw a number of players leave the two clubs, it is Treviso who have fared better with the backing of Bennetton, and it is Zebre who are staring down the barrel of closure at season end once again.  A new franchise, based in Rome, is being rumoured to be on the cards with the FIR willing to put financial support into its development.   For many within the PRO12, and without, the Italian project seems to be a wasted exercise and just amounts to weekly humiliation as opposition teams pile up the points, regularly taking home try bonus points in their victories. For others, the Italian involvement is a long game and one that has to be persevered with.    Yet, the FIR is still not a shareholder in Celtic Rugby, the company which manages the PRO12 - the latest filings with the Companies Registration Office in Dublin shows that the three Celtic unions remain the founding shareholders, and critically, the beneficiaries of any financial dealing that flow through it - particularly in relation to TV broadcasting deals such as Sky Sports.  This current season, it took until Round 6 before an Italian broadcaster could be secured for covering the home matches of Treviso and Zebre, and with crowds often hovering around 1,500-2,000, this didn't raise many eyebrows.  for the foreseeable future, Italian rugby will stay within the PRO12, and the FIR will continue to be a major stakeholder/financier in the teams.

Irish rugby has been dabbling with business support for a number of years now with the provincial teams drawing in sponsorships, player salary top-ups, and increasing financial support for the various provinces through different types of schemes devised by the individual branches.   Jamie Heaslip recently re-signed with Leinster on what's likely to be his final playing contract before retirement (at age 37).  One of Ireland’s most consistent and durable players, he’s also been one of the most consistently highest paid through his IRFU central contract, and a salary top-up through his Leinster club with a business sponsorship deal with Bank of Ireland.  

But these adhoc business supports and extended sponsorships/player promotions and brand ambassadors do not fill the coffers of the branches sufficiently to grow and expand, it's sufficient only to pay the salaries of 2-3 players to keep them in place against ever higher competing offers from the TV-deal-enriched clubs in England and France.  As the IRFU pointed at the launch of its annual report last June, the IRFU cannot continue to be "the bank of last resort" for the provinces - following a €1 million plus bailout of Munster, and a €250k additional budget for each province to help them compete on player salaries.   A number of the provinces have sought quietly to persuade the IRFU to consider opening up the provinces’ branch company structures to allow private investors to take a stake in each of the provinces in return for continued investment over a period of time.  Until the last year, those overtures have been largely rebuffed with the occasional odd positive murmur about the need to keep control if such a development were to be envisaged.   It is rumoured that alongside the SRU’s current moves, the IRFU is also investigating how the branches’ structures could be altered to allow such investment in the future.  A variant of the NZRU model whereby they allowed private investors to take a stake in each of the five Super Rugby franchises is being considered, but the IRFU would want to maintain a controlling stake that gives them oversight and control in line with the current player management policy and protocols they have in place.  

As the IRFU have stated time and again, the revenues from the test game is what keeps the whole of Irish rugby afloat - interfering with or disabling that in some way is not something they would countenance.  Equally, the union recognises that costs will continue to rise in the PRO12 and wider club game with player salaries being biggest driver.   Their investment policy has switched from paying out large salaries to high-profile capped foreign players to investing in the domestic pathway development (€10m over the last 3 years) - with the emergence of some fine academy players across the provinces proving testament to this approach led by David Nucifora on behalf of the IRFU.

Nonetheless, the club game is getting bigger and more financially competitive so if a methodology can be developed to allow private investment takes its place at the table, it’s likely to happen over the next few years.  

But as two unions move across the dance floor looking for wealthy partners, the Welsh benefactors are being drawn (protestingly for some) from the other side by the WRU who have recently announced that they see the future of the Welsh game involving a marriage of both union and private investment funds.  As two unions prepare to step out, the Welsh union is preparing to step in again.   The Dragons region has been languishing in the shop window for the past year, gathering dust as various investor-type people amble up, take a poke and move off again without buying.   Martin Phillps was pushed recently in an interview to say that the WRU couldn't allow the region to fold, but he wasn't too specific in public as to what kind of support they might bring.  Equally, he was encouraged enough to say that increased union funding for the four regions seemed to be inevitable - but he didn't say what price they might extract for such investment.  Would the benefactors/shareholders be asked to move on, or move around the table to make more room for union faces to sit down?  

Whilst there are those who pine for a future whereby pure private investment and ownership rules the roost like their counterparts in England and France, the likelihood of that model being created and surviving does not seem to be on anyone's dance cards.   More likely, a marriage of convenience may be arrived at, wherein true love may never be expressed, but at least the two parties will be able to pay the mortgage together, and maybe afford a new extension or two in the near future to mix a few metaphors.

But for now, let the European hopscotch begin, and then the merry four-nation dance can begin again.

All together now:

Sixteen long years we spent in Dub-i-lin
Sixteen long years doin' nothing at all
Sixteen long years we spent in Dub-i-lin
Learning to dance at the PRO12 ball.

They stepped out, and they stepped in again......

Griff wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:

Griff wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:  That is their competition. Do the South African union even want to be part of the Pro12 ? Secondly why are South Africa dropping any of their franchises from the Super 14 ?

.

There are people in SA who are totally feed up with Super 18.
They don't want to give up franchises.
They bring the big bucks in terms of TV money.

The third, as yet unnamed team are one of the big 4 who are not being dropped but want to jump ship.

Genune question here, but does the S15 TV deal really generate a large amount of money? Yes, the SA audience is big and forms the majority (in the current S14 setup, due to SA population, etc.) but I've always been led to believe that SA loses players to Europe because they cannot afford to keep them. Percy Montgomery didn't come to Newport for the lifestyle, after all! So why do they struggle to generate enough to keep players? Their crowds are huge I thought?

So I would have thought that if SA teams wanted to join the Pro12 then it would be to tap into OUR TV deal, rather than us generating new increased funds by tapping into theirs?

Of the 3 big Southern Hemisphere team SA are the ones responsible for the big money with respect to TV - they subsidies the others.
However I do see you point but then again this is a classic win win situation.

The total package is far more attractive to Sky and the total value of the combined TV deal will be considerably bigger than adding together the existing SA and Sky deals
Also remember we are getting a big new sponsor - an Airline company which will also generate more income

That sounds good.  Wasn't arguing against bringing SA teams in, just wondering amount the amounts as 'big money' in the S15 might not be considered big money by us in the North if the migration of players is anything to go by (me assuming that they don't generate the sort of money we do which is maybe why they can't keep hold of them).  Without reading back over the bickering to find out, does anyone know what sort of money the S15 deal generates for the teams/unions?  I know it would be a different deal driven by UK Sky, but just interested as the S15 is THE premier club competition in the world arguably.

This. The lion's share of not enough is still not enough.

I posted that piece geoff because the belief seems to be that the Super Rugby tv money will not change if they lose teams, there will still be enough games to fill the schedules.

So while the SA tv market may be worth a lot of money, budgets may not be as free to splash the cash on the Pro12. A third team leaving may upset the balance in SA though, how free are the teams to jump ship with participation agreements in place? Would number 3 have to wait to join?

marty2086 wrote:I posted that piece geoff because the belief seems to be that the Super Rugby tv money will not change if they lose teams, there will still be enough games to fill the schedules.

So while the SA tv market may be worth a lot of money, budgets may not be as free to splash the cash on the Pro12. A third team leaving may upset the balance in SA though, how free are the teams to jump ship with participation agreements in place? Would number 3 have to wait to join?

SARU would have to sanction the 3rd team shifting I think.

I presume the Pro12 offering is a new TV contract for SA - so on top of Super Rugby (especially as the seasons only partially overlap).

It'll be interesting to see how they fit Curry Cup around it too. Also any Spinrgboks will be tied up with TRC in September impacting early season games

My understanding is SARU are fine with it.

If they can find a way of retaining all 6 teams they would be delighted

The rumours doing the rounds within the IRFU is that Super 15 will get what it gets now regarding TV money
but the new Pro14/15 will get considerably more than the existing Pro12 as it is seen as an exciting new package.
Bottom line there will be more TV money coming into rugby as a whole.
Now it may well be the lions share of that is coming from Sky rather than SA TV but so what - who cares where it comes from.
Sky would see this as a real boost to their rugby coverage especially if BT grab the entirety of the European package when it comes up for renewal in 2018 or 2019.
That seems to be something BT intend to pitch for

As for when it is played and how it fits in with other competitions - the whole world calendar is up for discussion from 2019 onwards so if it is a goer then it will be part of that overarching conversation.

geoff999rugby wrote:My understanding is SARU are fine with it.

If they can find a way of retaining all 6 teams they would be delighted

They might quibble about the 3rd team jumping ship Geoff. I'm sure they're delighted re. the Cheetahs & Kings. Especially if it helps bring a few more players home, or shifts some from the Kings/Cheetahs across franchises to help them compete with the NZ sides

Rumour firming up to suggest it will be a Pro14 next year.

Initially I thought it would be 18-19 but now the betting is on 17-18

I think we can assume Cheetahs and Kings

Seems crazy it happening so soon, any word on the format?

Not yet

I hope thats a case of you just don't know rather than Pro12/14/23 hasn't figured it out otherwise this has the potential to be a clu$ter£uck

I suppose hands are tied as they have to do it now if the teams will be cut from Super Rugby after this season otherwise they won't be playing for a year and losing money

A batpwp crazy league that is fighting the tide to just stay alive, rather than bite the bullett and lose the blazers.

Its about recognising that the Celtic nations, alone, do not attract the big bucks from sponsors or TV.

This deal will provide a lucrative Airline sponsor, including covering travelling costs, and a huge increase in TV money.
Still not at England or France levels but a lot lot closer.

geoff999rugby wrote:Its about recognising that the Celtic nations, alone, do not attract the big bucks from sponsors or TV.

This deal will provide a lucrative Airline sponsor, including covering travelling costs, and a huge increase in TV money.
Still not at England or France levels but a lot lot closer.

Fantastic news.

Mark Keohane, who is a well respected journalist in South Africa, has gone public stating Cheetahs and Kings are joining Pro12

geoff999rugby wrote:Mark Keohane, who is a well respected journalist in South Africa, has gone public stating Cheetahs and Kings are joining Pro12

Are these sides keeping hold of there best players ? Or will their best players be farmed out to other SA franchises ?

It will come down to money
Which teams can afford the better wages.
The Saffers will not want to be sub standard in the new Pro14

geoff999rugby wrote:It will come down to money
Which teams can afford the better wages.
The Saffers will not want to be sub standard in the new Pro14

That's Super 14 actually .

What way are the ownership structures in SA?

Are they franchised? Privately owned? Union run?

marty2086 wrote:What way are the ownership structures in SA?

Are they franchised? Privately owned? Union run?

SARU took over the Kings in 2015 from the 3 provinces supplying players to them (Eastern Province, Border & South Western Districts) after the team went broke. Cheetahs are owned by the Free State RU, which covers the Western half of the Free State province - it used to be a coalition covering the whole of Free State + Northern Cape Griquas

LordDowlais wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:Mark Keohane, who is a well respected journalist in South Africa, has gone public stating Cheetahs and Kings are joining Pro12

Are these sides keeping hold of there best players ? Or will their best players be farmed out to other SA franchises ?

That'll depend on the money. I'd guess if the pro12 got a good deal there won't be much diifference between what Cheetahs/Kings get and what the SA super rugby teams get.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/40448854

I think we can take it as a given it just remains to be seen whether or not we can get it sorted for 17-18 or we will have to wait for 18-19.

Obviously, as has been mooted, two North American teams join, next year, then it will be two conferences of 8 teams.
Play you own conference teams twice and the other conference teams once = 22 games, same as now

Well, looks like we are going to 14. Not sure I am happy about the extra 4 games a season though it looks like a conference system is being discussed. Certainly would be in favour of trying to get to 16 teams in that scenario for a 22 games season (8 in each conference; play twice in own conference and once against each team in the opposite).

A Canadian and an American team were being discussed but a German (Munich) and a Spanish (Madrid) team would make more logistical sense. Wonder how this will impact TV deals. Need to be looking to someone like BA, Ryanair or South African Airways to become a significant sponsor.

Great minds think alike (and post at the same time). Sorry Geoff

I am quietly excited about this. The Pro 12 needs a bit of a shake up and this might be just what is needed to provide it. Bringing in two top quality teams can only lead to the rest of the teams upping their game if they want to be competitive and anything that adds to the leagues budget and financial strength can only be a good thing. At the moment it is adapt or die, if it carries on as it is now, we will be a second class league in no time at all, we are currently hanging on by our shoe laces.

I would say they should just run with a full league of 14 for the first season and save the conference system for later if other teams join. A straightforward league is much is for everyone to understand and is fairer. There is enough slack in the system to cope with the extra games.

In the future there remain doubts about Italian participation and about other teams coming in. With a bit of creative scheduling, teams could go down to SA and play both their games down there in one go and there is talk of the SA teams playing some of their home games in London at Allianz Park, which taps into the London market as well (declaration of interest: I live in London).

I am really looking forward to seeing more details when they are announced.

I wonder if they will be eligible for the Champions Cup? That would put the cat among the pigeons...

I'm sure the SA teams will be pushing for it given that's where the money is.

RDW_Scotland wrote:I wonder if they will be eligible for the Champions Cup? That would put the cat among the pigeons...

I'm sure the SA teams will be pushing for it given that's where the money is.

Is it not just the winners who get the real windfall these days under the new regime?

I think it is obvious a team would play both games in SA together, if they have 2 away fixtures.

As to SA home games my bet is at the start and end of the season the games will be in SA but in the middle of the season, at the height of the summer they will be in Europe.
Way to hot to play in SA in Jan and Feb

It will be North American rather than European teams for one simple reason - money

I'm not against this by any means, but it is a little bizarre! It's possible that our league is maybe a few years off extinction under the existing model with the money the French and English get is so vastly above what the Pro12 demands. The rugby played in the Pro12 is far more enjoyable to watch than in the other two and hopefully with this comes a bit professionalism in the presentation of the product.

Hopefully in the coming weeks we hear a bit more about the structure and the schedule particularly over the Six Nations that will allay our fears.

Perhaps it is a bit of a gamble and I'm sure we all hope it pays off, so get some steaks on the brai.

RDW_Scotland wrote:I wonder if they will be eligible for the Champions Cup? That would put the cat among the pigeons...

I'm sure the SA teams will be pushing for it given that's where the money is.

In the short term probably not as it is marketed as a European cup but longer term, why not. It would potentially bring more interest and improve the quality all round, especially in the Challenge cup where there are some glaring miss matches with some of the minor teams.

marty2086 wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote:I wonder if they will be eligible for the Champions Cup? That would put the cat among the pigeons...

I'm sure the SA teams will be pushing for it given that's where the money is.

Is it not just the winners who get the real windfall these days under the new regime?

There is still useful money for knock out teams - the money came in handy this year for Munster

Only side note with the SA teams is that they are struggling financially at the moment. It is a gamble for them to join up with the NH for money and out of kilter with the rest of the SA season, though that may draw other Super team fans during their offseason (Stormers, Lions, Sharks, Bulls).

Structurally this coming year will be a bit of a botch before we move to a full conference system  in 18-19 with 22 games each

The SA teams may be struggling but I understand there is significant extra TV money from Sky and SA TV

Given that the new rule is Top 7 Pro 12 teams - regardless of country - they could argue that they should be in it.

I'm not sure the home unions would be too happy about that!

The SA teams will surely struggle especially towards the end of the season having to play Super Rugby then into the ProXX

geoff999rugby wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote:I wonder if they will be eligible for the Champions Cup? That would put the cat among the pigeons...

I'm sure the SA teams will be pushing for it given that's where the money is.

Is it not just the winners who get the real windfall these days under the new regime?

There is still useful money for knock out teams - the money came in handy this year for Munster

It's not the money pot is once was though, it can and should be a cash cow for everyone

its not but it is not insignificant

If anything it gives pale British rugby fans a cracking excuse to get singing-drunk on a beach in the middle of December.

I see they're talking about one potential approach being two conferences of seven. Not sure about how much I like that in principle,but fourteen regular season games then some playoff games would be a good way to bring the sheer number of games under control.

It wont be reduced like that for all sorts of reasons - Play the other conference teams twice and yours once gives
22 games which is as now.

It really is a mess, if it is a straight up league system next season and more games surely that means that teams will need to do some more recruitment?

But as I say there is a very simple way to make it 22 games - exactly as now

There will not be a significant reduction or a significant increase in the number of games

How the 2 conferences are split will be the interesting bit
Putting 2 Welsh and 2 Irish in both conferences and 1 each of the other countries would retain all internal derbies bar one each, per team, for the Welsh and Irish (under my suggestion)
So Ulster lose a game against Munster
Connacht lose a game against Leinster
Dragons lose a game against Scarlets
Cardiff lose a game against Ospreys

Don't see the problem to be honest
That is a small price to pay to put us on a different level as a league

Interesting development. I know that his is pro 12 but I'd echo some of the thoughts along the lines of how does this affect Europe. There's no decision yet on the format as far as I've read. Will it be a sa team in each of the 2 conferences if they go down that route. How will it be decided who goes in their group if travel costs are considered and he 2 sa teams are in the same group. I'm sure this is giving someone a headache right now.

Geoff there may well be some resistance in some quarters to that set up, it will hopefully only be for a year though.

I welcome the long term change and understand the urgency is enforced by the Super Shambles, you wait and the two SA teams will probably either lose their players or go bust without revenue coming in for a year.

One benefit some may have missed out, if the SA teams can get some decent income coming in could we see a few SA stars from the other teams coming to play ProXX in the Super Rugby off season?

There is more money on the way through TV and sponsors - everyone will agree to that.
Travel seems to be covered by the Airline sponsor

As to Europe either there in or out.
If they are in then maybe pro12 will get 8 slots or, and this seems more likely to me, they are out and
it will be the top 7 European based teams.

Having the non European teams in Europe would cause all sorts of problems
Extra travel costs for the French and English.

Playing in SA in their summer and next year USA in winter is not practical
Blomfeintein in January can go over 30C and averages 83mm of rain
Port Elizabeth has over 80 percentage humidity in January and is also be in the upper 20s C
As to USA - some of their city winters are beyond cold

You cant play rugby in those conditions

The Pro12 can get round that by front and back loading their home fixtures that flexibility is not possible in Europe with games in
December and January

I think doing it your way Geoff, Ulster would lose say a home game against Munster and an away game against Connacht, but gain a home game against Cheetahs and an Away game against Southern Kings (or what ever they may rebrand to)

Fair enough swap if it means we can keep up with the English and French Leagues better.

marty2086 wrote:
...
One benefit some may have missed out, if the SA teams can get some decent income coming in could we see a few SA stars from the other teams coming to play ProXX in the Super Rugby off season?

It's possible. Currently quite a few of them go and play in the Japanese league (it's a ~ 12 game season over Oct-Jan/Feb which fits nicely), I went to a game in Osaka in late 2015 where Etzebeth, Pollard, Kriel & Brussouw turned out for the Red Hurricanes.

However anyone trying to play both ProXX & SuperXX would run into the fixture clashes in Feb-May. Possibly early season injury jokers or International cover in the AIs (depending on the new European seasaon structure) could work though

marty2086 wrote:Geoff there may well be some resistance in some quarters to that set up, it will hopefully only be for a year though.

What resistance do you forsee ? - with North America joining the set up it is guaranteed to be conferences and in order to maintain conferences of an equal standard a small number of local derbies will have to go.
Will not stop the arranging of big show piece matches in Dublin and Cardiff and to be honest derbies are not what they were anyway.

Players will not be playing both Super 15 and Pro14/16 I would be as certain as I can be of that

geoff999rugby wrote:There is more money on the way through TV and sponsors - everyone will agree to that.
Travel seems to be covered by the Airline sponsor

As to Europe either there in or out.
If they are in then maybe pro12 will get 8 slots or, and this seems more likely to me, they are out and
it will be the top 7 European based teams.

Having the non European teams in Europe would cause all sorts of problems
Extra travel costs for the French and English.

Playing in SA in their summer and next year USA in winter is not practical
Blomfeintein in January can go over 30C and averages 83mm of rain
Port Elizabeth has over 80 percentage humidity in January and is also be in the upper 20s C
As to USA - some of their city winters are beyond cold

You cant play rugby in those conditions

The Pro12 can get round that by front and back loading their home fixtures that flexibility is not possible in Europe with games in
December and January

I wonder long term, if USA/CAD teams and SA teams join would dropping out of the ECC be in the best interests for the PRO 12, if SA/USA and CAN cannot take part in it?

If we move to conference, it could get interesting quick on how the split is done. Ireland and Wales would need to be in separate conferences if they are to be kept together. There should be 12 teams that are well established (4 Irish/Welsh, 2 Scots/SA) and 4 emerging teams (Italy/USA/Canada). Should mean 6 established teams and 2 emerging teams per conference. Personally I would split the Welsh and the Irish up as mentioned above.  

As for weather, American football is played September to Feb and Pats/Giants/Browns/Bills/Packers/Bears to name a few have no problem playing in winter (well maybe the Browns do but that is more organisational failure than weather related). They will need a pitch similar to Scotstoun to play. Putting a team in NYC and Toronto should be the goal. Sadly, the better rugby teams in the US are in Cali which is even further for travel otherwise San Diego have just lost the Chargers and would probably take to a rugby team in droves.

If we are at 14 this season and it is deemed too many with no new teams forthcoming (to get to conferences), could we see Italy folding down to 1 team and Wales losing a team or are we sure the Italians will fully withdraw?