PGA Tour: JustIn Time: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).Justin Thomas won convincingly at Kapalua and is in the form of his life; just like Hideki Matsuyama, the man he beat. Each player won on the "Asian" swing and go again this week, at Waialae Country Club and the Sony Open. Thomas has already shot a round of 61 at Waialae, though Hideki has yet to score a top 75 in four trips.

2).So: How good is Justin Thomas? His PGA Tour career was launched amid hyperbolic hoo ha (played his first PGA Tour event at age 16) but stalled when he struggled to "graduate" from the web.com Tour.
Since then, though, it's been a steady trajectory up the leaderboards and rankings. But the fact is that he's yet to win a full field event and has sometimes looked more likely to bottle winning opportunities rather than grasp them with both hands.
His Sunday experiences have shown both sides of his game:
~Shooting up leaderboards to earn "backdoor" top tens . . . . . .
~ . . . . but just as often relinquishing contending positions.
Not dissimilar to a young Duval and look what happened when he finally won one!

3).Thomas hits it as far as he wants, wildly sometimes but that increasingly won't matter on most courses he plays. His iron game is better than Tour average, but his short game about average, all a bit Dustin-esque.
Davis Love made no secret of the fact he wanted Justin to earn his way on to last year's Ryder Cup Team, but he came up short.
He has a good Walker Cup under his belt and is in prime position to play on Stricker's Presidents Cup Team. He'll be in all this year's Majors and WGC's so learning to compete and contend there may be his next step. Nothing better than a PGA Championship 18th and yet to contend in any WGC so far. But he's already tied Rickie Fowler in Tour wins and you'd think he should add to them this year, and be an owgr Top Ten fixture for at least the coming season. Only 23 and the golfing world at his feet.

4).Stricker's Presidents Cup Team will doubtless be a strong one and Dustin & Justin have already created some distance between them and the field in the qualifying table. Next eight automatic places currently filled by:
Spieth, Reed, Berger, Moore, Steele, Piercy, Chappell, Snedeker, with Koepka #11 and Jimmy Walker & Phil close behind.

5).Golf Digest has had a bad editorial year, but there have been a couple of interesting issues so far in 2017. "January" featured the blow-by-blow account of the Stenson/Mickelson duel at Troon and "February" has a short but compelling interview with Pete Cowen. It also has some intriguing lists:

6).Their selection of the Top 100 US Golf Courses is always fascinating reading. The Top 10 is largely unchanged from two years ago, but Pine Valley leapfrogs Augusta National as it reaches #1. The other Top ten:
Pine Valley, Augusta Nat, Cypress Point, Shinnecock, Oakmont, Merion, Pebble Beach, National GL, Sand Hills, Winged Foot. Other notables include:
Seminole (13), Muirfield Village (15), Oak Hill (20), Riviera (24), Erin Hills (44), TPC Sawgrass (51), (Shotrock's) Aronomink (78), Kapalua (112), Harbour Town (127).

7).And Golf Digest's "Money" list is also published, with Rory at the head of the field with $49+M.
On course earnings Top 5:
McIlroy: $17.5M
DJohnson: $12.7M
Day: $8.8M
Reed: $8.3M
Scott: $8.2M

8).Off-course earnings:
Palmer: $40M
Woods: $34.6M
Mickelson: $33.5M
McIlroy: $32M
Spieth: $24M

9).Waialae CC should see fine weather throughout this week's Sony Open, mostly very light winds and scoring will be low, possibly very low, showers possible but golden showers probably not.
It's a horses-for-courses, fairways and greens, Par-70, so it's predictable the sort of player who will finish well, not so easy to pick which ones will ride a hot putter, a la Russell Henley a few years ago, to victory.
I like Jason Dufner to have a good each-way kind of week, but the field is strong led by Spieth and Matsuyama, plus of course Justin Thomas. Russell Knox, Justin Rose and Paul Casey lead Team GB.

10).Much is made of golfers who finished "High" school in 2011, Spieth, Grillo, Berger, Patrick Rodgers, not to mention other hot-shots who have so far not broken through. (No idea about corresponding golfers from other parts of the world who may or may not have even stayed in school until the age of 18.)
And Justin Thomas is another one, linked as mates and golfers inextricably with Jordan Spieth and time will tell if he proves to be sufficiently successful to create his own superstar identity. Jury still out in my opinion, but these guys are only 23 so, to paraphrase Counting Crows: "It's all a lot of oysters", but how many pearls?

No, I haven't lived in Vermont (or the Northeast) since the 1970's.

I guess 1998 was the year of the massive ice storm? I have suffered through some minor ones here in the South and Midwest. We had storm here about 6-7 years ago that knocked out power for 5 days and one in Mississippi that knocke power out at my house for 7 days.

Ice storms wrecks havoc with the loblolly pine trees in the South. Loblollies have very soft wood.

A couple of years ago I was in the "Mother of all Ice Storms" for us. 22F and raining for 4 hours. I walked outside and it sounded like gunshots as trees of ALL types were losing major limbs. We were without power for almost a week and crews came in from all over to help fix things. Snow I can handle (Kwin and I shared some of the same heavy snow events). Ice scares the heck out of me!

Exactly. Like a firing range! Tops of all the trees from here to Montreasl (and doubtless much further) all lopped off. Bad for people, worse for trees, and not good for golf courses.

The posse are still at least two strokes behind Thomas, Gonzo trying hard to keep up.

Justin Rose turning into a latter-day Lord Baltimore as he moves into second place, leading the chasing group.

Paul Casey can spend his weekend sunbathing unless he birdies his final four holes.

McLaren wrote:

Super

What's a George Michael finish?

A walk in the park...

84 years ago today (Jan 13, 1934) Augusta National officially opened.

A lot of trees have been planted in the last 84
years.

Vintage Aerial Photo of ANGC:

GPB - KWINI - Agree that to put golf history in perspective you need to look at as many factors as you can.  

IMO the problem with using either Z-scoring or score vs field average for a single round, you have a bunch of players at the bottom of the field who are non factors to the accomplishment, yet they're greatly affecting the field averages and standard deviations.

IMO, if we're going to take a statistical look at the sub-60 scores, it's probably better to compare them to the other players who were actually playing well that day and forget about the rest of the players. IMO this isn't perfect either because of varying field strengths, course difficulties and # of players in each round, but it's better than a full field comparison.

Here are the sub-60 rounds compared to the scoring average of the #2-25 and #2-15 other top rounds of that day.

SC - D25   -  D15  
59 - 9.29  -  8.29  -  Jim Furyk       -  2013 BMW Championship*
59 - 8.92  -  8.29  -  Al Geiberger    -  1977 Memphis
59 - 7.71  -  6.86  -  David Duval     -  1999 Bob Hope*
58 - 7.67  -  6.93  -  Jim Furyk       -  2016 Travelers Championship*
59 - 6.50  -  5.79  -  Chip Beck       -  1991 Las Vegas*
59 - 6.50  -  5.71  -  Paul Goydos     -  2010 John Deere Classic
59 - 6.35  -  5.85  -  Stuart Appleby  -  2010 Greenbrier Classic*
59 - 5.75  -  5.21  -  Justin Thomas   -  2017 Sony Open in Hawaii


But even at that... you need to look at all the other factors.  

Looking at the above and taking into account what I've been able to learn about these various rounds... Geiberger's & Furyk's 59's (not Furyk's 58) are probably the two best sub-60 rounds. IMO there are factors where you can make a case for either.

Furyk's 58 and Duval's 59 are probably the next best... and again you can make a good case for either.

And while NO sub-60 sucks... I'd have to probably rate JT's and Chip Beck's as the lesser of the 8 rounds above.  Beck comes up higher in the sort, but I know his round played on a the new "Sunrise" course, and from all accounts, was by far the easiest of the 3 courses in use that week. Unfortunately I don't have the course by course scoring breakdown, but my quasi-informed best guess is it would likely move to the bottom of the list if we had the numbers.

EDIT NOTE: If I were to compare the above in a SINGLE list... I'd probably use the scoring averages of the Top-25 for players scores above who were PRE CUT... and use Top-15 for those who were post cut or limited field like Furyk's BMW. I've added an * to those that fit that category It's still hard to rate Beck in this manner, because we don't have his field on his course that day AND there would have been only 50-52 players on that course that day, but he has an * as well.

GPB wrote:

Vintage Aerial Photo of ANGC:

Awesome photo

Very cool. Thanks robo.

Were Nike clubs properly shit? Seems you don't need a year to get used to switching to other brands.

I'm sure they were perfectly good clubs Mac, which performed as well as any other, certainly at the level any of us are at.

Personally, I just don't rate Nike as a specialist in anything in particular and I just don't think they understood how clubs are sold very well, nor do I rate how their clubs look especially.

So, I prefer to buy gear that suits my eye better, hence why I've never had Nike clubs and I've got no Nike gear.

CareerBuilder Field in Palm Springs.

Mickelson (has not WDed yet)
Reed
Zach
Francesco
Kjeldson

Along with Frankie and Soren, Other Euros include Rahm, Laird, Cejka, Lingmerth.

Re: Evaluating Sub 60 round (and other great rounds)

Clearly there will be some subjective analysis of which is the "Best Sub 60 round". You can cherry pick which an objective metric. Z-Score, SG-Total, Avg of the Top 25, Top 15, or several others

You can even look at the scores in a vacuum. Which theoretical 59 is better, the one with a better SGP or a SG-TtG

On a pure ball striking performance, Duval's 59 might be the best 59. It was said that he was stuffing every approach shot. Who knows what his SGP and SG-TtG was that day.

Lots of ways to parse the data. Every analysis has its advantages and disadvantages. But one that that the Z-Score and SG-Total is that it is able to identify great rounds using readily available data.

Did anyone actually remember that Ken Duke actually had one of the great rounds of the 2015-16 season? I didn't. His third round 65 at the Players had a Z-score of 3.25, a SG-Total of 10.25.

I think most people realize that the Players has least diluted and deepest field in golf. 99.2% of the field is a Top 50 player or an active PGATour Card Holder. And it was the third round, where the players that were not on form were filtered out of analysis.

GPB wrote:On a pure ball striking performance, Duval's 59 might be the best 59. It was said that he was stuffing every approach shot.

I watched his final round on TV. He didn't have many, if any long putts. When describing his round afterwards he had difficulty in explaining the putts as they were so short.

I'm never wrong wrote:

GPB wrote:On a pure ball striking performance, Duval's 59 might be the best 59.  It was said that he was stuffing every approach shot.

I watched his final round on TV. He didn't have many, if any long putts.  When describing his round afterwards he had difficulty in explaining the putts as they were so short.

Yep, domination of the golf course should be factor when judging the super low rounds.

Sometimes we are not seeing the forest because of the trees.

GPB wrote:Re: Evaluating Sub 60 round (and other great rounds)

Clearly there will be some subjective analysis of which is the "Best Sub 60 round".  You can cherry pick which an objective metric.  Z-Score, SG-Total, Avg of the Top 25, Top 15, or several others

I certainly agree that subjectivity needs to be included in looking at these type things for perspective sake. It's the way I look at all records. And I realize different people will have different opinions as to which subjective factors are the most important.  But I wouldn't call it "cherry picking" though, because to me that term implies choosing the metric which most closely produces a pre-determined or desired outcome.  I don't do analysis that way.  

For instance, when I was adding JT's data to my "59s spreadsheet" I "was hoping" JT's 59 would come out higher on the list... but it IS what it IS, and IMO JT's belongs near the bottom, if not the bottom of the list.  (Again, not to take ANYTHING away from his great round, he kicked butt and being on a list of just 8 players is pretty awesome.)

Amazing how scoring records are coming down though... I was doing some research trying to nail down more facts on Chip Beck's 59. In the process I found a 1991 Seattle Times article about his 59 that also listed the only 8 scores of 60 that had been shot at that time.  http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19911012&slug=1310530

Now there are 8 SUB-60 rounds... and as of today there have been 33 scores of 60 shot by 31 different players. Phil Mickelson and Zach Johnson have 2 each. FOUR 60's were recorded in 2016 alone.

Also... Justin Thomas set the PGA Tour record for low first 36 hole total score.with his 123 (17-under).  But the under par record for the first 36 holes is 20-under 124 on a par-72 course by Pat Perez (2009 Hope) and Jason Day shot 18-under (124) for his first 36 holes on a par-71 course (Conway Farms-2015 BMW)

GPB wrote:

I'm never wrong wrote:

GPB wrote:On a pure ball striking performance, Duval's 59 might be the best 59.  It was said that he was stuffing every approach shot.

I watched his final round on TV. He didn't have many, if any long putts.  When describing his round afterwards he had difficulty in explaining the putts as they were so short.

Yep, domination of the golf course should be factor when judging the super low rounds.  

Not sure I understand why that would be. The objective is to shoot the score, and in that respect it doesn't matter how.   While I agree the better ball striking rounds are more impressive to watch, in the end it's just not better than another by someone who didn't knock it as close but putting out of his mind.

An aside to Duval's 59....  I happened to be in Orlando for the PGA Merchandise show that year, and one of my best buds was a rep for Hilfiger.  I was in their booth as Duval was finishing that round and they had it up on screens all around the place. As you might imagine those guys were going nuts.  But the funniest part of it was maybe a dozen times I heard something to the effect of "Tuck in you f***ing shirt !!!!"

IMO, shooting a 59 by making a 4 "Ocean-Goers" and holing 220' of putts is less impressive that someone shooting 59 and holing nothing longer than 10'.

JMO....I also like Pistachio Ice Cream.

82 players make the Sony cut. Going to be slow round later today with 82 players on a small golf course. MDF cut after Round 3.

robopz wrote:
An aside to Duval's 59....  I happened to be in Orlando for the PGA Merchandise show that year, and one of my best buds was a rep for IZOD.  I was in their booth as Duval was finishing that round and they had it up on screens all around the place. As you might imagine those guys were going nuts.  But the funniest part of it was maybe a dozen times I heard something to the effect of "Tuck in you f***ing shirt !!!!"

Ironically, IMO, the flapping shirt tail makes that moment even more iconic. Sure it make him look sloppy, but Duval was never in danger of being best dressed on tour.

super_realist wrote:I'm sure they were perfectly good clubs Mac, which performed as well as any other, certainly at the level any of us are at.

Personally, I just don't rate Nike as a specialist in anything in particular and I just don't think they understood how clubs are sold very well, nor do I rate how their clubs look especially.

So, I prefer to buy gear that suits my eye better, hence why I've never had Nike clubs and I've got no Nike gear.

It just seems Rory has easily transitioned to his new set but couldn't when he moved to Nike.

GPB wrote:Ironically, IMO, the flapping shirt tail makes that moment even more iconic.  Sure it make him look sloppy, but Duval was never in danger of being best dressed on tour.

I'm not sure if it wasn't more his body type. Izod goods were pretty classy in those days but Duval with his long trunk and short legs was always kinda "dumpy looking" no matter what he wore.  But perhaps  a lot of that is on Izod for not fitting him properly. They should have had him in tall man shirts with longer tails that he could keep in. His shirt was out a lot, not just that day.

And here's his post round interview where he goes through his hole by hole... Wow, it was an incredible ball striking day, including as he calls them "kick-ins" on his first 4 par-3's. (He made four 2's on the 5 par-3's)

http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=9836

GPB wrote:82 players make the Sony cut.  Going to be slow round later today with 82 players on a small golf course.  MDF cut  after Round 3.

Not often you hear this... but Jordan Spieth can't putt his way out of a paper bag right now... He's minus-2.9 Stokes Gained Putting this week... 79th out of the 82 players who made the cut. If he putts even average he's in 2nd or 3rd place with a legitimate shot this weekend... but now... barring JT totally puking it up (which ain't gonna happen)... and with so many other good players ahead of him he'd have to pass too.... pretty much NO chance...

And JT going for 3 wins in 5 PGAT starts in the season (3 out of the last 4)... Wow... Great stuff there.... Hideki who?

robopz wrote:

GPB wrote:82 players make the Sony cut.  Going to be slow round later today with 82 players on a small golf course.  MDF cut  after Round 3.

Not often you hear this... but Jordan Spieth can't putt his way out of a paper bag right now... He's minus-2.9 Stokes Gained Putting this week... 79th out of the 82 players who made the cut. If he putts even average he's in 2nd or 3rd place with a legitimate shot this weekend... but now... barring JT totally puking it up (which ain't gonna happen)... and with so many other good players ahead of him he'd have to pass too.... pretty much NO chance...

And JT going for 3 wins in 5 PGAT starts in the season (3 out of the last 4)... Wow... Great stuff there.... Hideki who?

Yes, i've noticed that, after all my glowing compliments he's gone to the dogs. I've totally put the mockers on him.

Yup, Just the week to wonder aloud if Thomas has the Right Stuff and tip Dufner as a good e.w. investment.

MDF after Round 3, Top 70 and ties play Round 4.
Had my doubts about that rule, but think it's worked very well, though still wish there was just a little more FedEx point credit for playing Round 3.

Strange Phenomena in the OWGR between Spieth and Matsuyama.

Spieth is fractionally ahead of Matsuyama going into this week, but Jordan has to finish at least 13th in order to keep ahead and that is if Hideki finishes 52nd or worse.

This is due to the recent hot streak of Hideki, winning 4 out 6 tournaments in the last 3 months and finishing 2nd in the other two. Many of his points are not subject to attrition yet. 231 of his 490 gross points have been earned in the last 3 months.

Conversely only 5% of Spieth's Gross points have been earned in the last 3 months. (56 out of 962)

If Spieth finishes 5th, Hideki can finish solo 10th and edge ahead of Spieth in the rankings.

kwinigolfer wrote:
Had my doubts about that rule, but think it's worked very well, though still wish there was just a little more FedEx point credit for playing Round 3.

I agree and the new FEX schedule is better in that regard than the old one.

Also, the "Amateur in the Top 70 loophole" rule has been straightened out. It is now straight Top 70 and ties, and no longer Top 70 Professional and Ties.

82 players make the Sony cut.  Going to be slow round later today with 82 players on a small golf course.  

Just about to be a logjam developing on the first and tenth tees. Makes a bit of a mockery of the slow-play police.

Seamus Power & Gonzo (+6 over a 5-hole stretch has derailed him) fighting to make the Top 70 - they both need it.

McLaren wrote:

super_realist wrote:I'm sure they were perfectly good clubs Mac, which performed as well as any other, certainly at the level any of us are at.

Personally, I just don't rate Nike as a specialist in anything in particular and I just don't think they understood how clubs are sold very well, nor do I rate how their clubs look especially.

So, I prefer to buy gear that suits my eye better, hence why I've never had Nike clubs and I've got no Nike gear.

It just seems Rory has easily transitioned to his new set but couldn't when he moved to Nike.

It's not like this is the first week he's used them Mac, Nike left the industry a long time back in terms of this season. He's had most of autumn and most of the winter to get used to them.
I also think the ball is a big deal in this too.

A couple of cool Justin Thomas-related facts from the GC website:

~Tied the Tour's 54-hole scoring record, set at the 2010 John Deere by Stricker who had Jimmy Johnson as his caddie. So does Thomas.

~Ernie Els set the Hawaii (TOC, Sony) scoring record at -47; Thomas currently -39. Nothing a 61 wouldn't fix.

Chez Reavie -6 after 8 holes, including a hole-in-one. Still 2 x short Par-5's to play. 59 watch? #thisisgettingridiculous

Chez Reavie - your local brasserie. (I liked when you pulled that joke kwini. )

Spieth's putter is back to normal. 54 ft of putts holed after 3.

kwinigolfer wrote:Chez Reavie -6 after 8 holes, including a hole-in-one. Still 2 x short Par-5's to play. 59 watch? #thisisgettingridiculous

Wow. -7 after 9, and he has still missed 3 putts of 10, 12 and 15 ft.

Peds,
Leeds supporters would call his bijou bistro Chez Revie . . . . . . .

But now he's -9 after 13; just another five to make up.

Don't think anyone (on PGATour) has had a sub 60 score with a hole-in-one.

That record would stand.

Incredible performance by Justin Thomas in paradise.

PGATour record of 253. 7 shot win.

McLaren wrote:Were Nike clubs properly Poopie?  Seems you don't need a year to get used to switching to other brands.

Swear filter must have a context feature. Talking about Nike clubs - allow the profanity to stand.

Roller_Coaster wrote:

McLaren wrote:Were Nike clubs properly Poopie?  Seems you don't need a year to get used to switching to other brands.

Swear filter must have a context feature. Talking about Nike clubs - allow the profanity to stand.

Wow. I'm sure I could see the "Poopie" in Mac's post (literally rather than figuratively for a change ) then when I quote it, it reverts to the filtered alternative.

Anyone know how far into the fedex play offs JT is guaranteed to go already? Looking at last seasons regular season points list JT is good for a top 10 finish before the play offs begin already.

Justin keeps this up and next year's TOC will be pretty boring.

Roller_Coaster wrote:

Roller_Coaster wrote:

McLaren wrote:Were Nike clubs properly Poopie?  Seems you don't need a year to get used to switching to other brands.

Swear filter must have a context feature. Talking about Nike clubs - allow the profanity to stand.

Wow. I'm sure I could see the "Poopie" in Mac's post (literally rather than figuratively for a change ) then when I quote it, it reverts to the filtered alternative.

Yeah Roller, I noticed the same. I think the mods allow Mac to talk Poopie otherwise his posts would have no content.

The Olympic Course scheduled to host the Golf Events in Tokyo in 2020 has a Male-Only Membership.

With all the controversy at ANGC, Muirfield, Troon, St Georges in the last 10-15 years about male only membership how can the IGF not properly vet the host golf course properly.

This is has got Peter Dawson's DNA all over it.

That sounds like a political comment . . . . . . . .
Sure he's a pompous d1ckhead, but surely others contribute to the interests of Golf in the Olympics?

Gpb

Good point, and you are probably correct that Dawson has cocked this up. No doubt there will be a token female member added prior to 2020.

Peter Dawson is the Head Honcho of the IGF and they are the ones that run Olympic Golf.

I fought to impulse to make a "Mean Girl" spelling of his name.

It looks as if Paul Casey has somehow been added to the Bob Hope field.

Olypmic golf: It continues to look as if the Rio course is being left to the elements - what a waste, and certainly hasn't done much to promote golf in Brazil.

Casey must have registered late Friday after missing the Sony Cut.

raycastleunited wrote:

Roller_Coaster wrote:

Roller_Coaster wrote:

McLaren wrote:Were Nike clubs properly Poopie?  Seems you don't need a year to get used to switching to other brands.

Swear filter must have a context feature. Talking about Nike clubs - allow the profanity to stand.

Wow. I'm sure I could see the "Poopie" in Mac's post (literally rather than figuratively for a change ) then when I quote it, it reverts to the filtered alternative.

Yeah Roller, I noticed the same. I think the mods allow Mac to talk Poopie otherwise his posts would have no content.

Nah. Mac's being naughty (and he knows it) in using a trick to avoid the swear filter. Pretty sure he's been told about it in the past, but may be wrong. Not overly bothered with the word used, but I'd draw the line at some words etc being jemmied in this way.

Controlling the media... hmmm..
No. Mac's account must have been hacked by super in an attempt to influence the forum to downvote him.