How will England evolve before they next play New Zealand?

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England next play NZ in the autumn of 2018. We can be confident that they will be ranked 2 and 1 in the world, but England will have home advantage. I expect this will be one of the most hyped games in the history of rugby. But how will England change between now and then? Obviously there will be injuries, loss of form, players coming from nowhere, etc, but here are some things I expect:

- England will get a lot better. We are still a young and inexperienced side, and I would have thought we would naturally get about 20% better over this timescale.
- Elliot Daly will be fullback. Mike Brown has been a great servant but is in decline, and Daly is a wonderful footballer. I think this might be Daly's long-term position for England.
- Jamie George will be hooker, Luke Cowan-Dickie will be the 'finisher' on the bench, and Itoje will be Captain. Hartley has been lucky in terms of not missing internationals, when he eventually does I think the case for change will be clear.
- Underhill will be in the matchday squad, and will quite possibly be the starting 7. England have some fantastic backrows at age-group level, but Underhill will come into contention before them and he may be able to push past Haskell. I think Robshaw will still be the starting 6 at this point.

What does everyone else think?

Sgt Pooly

Daly was our best winger in the 6 nations even though I doubted his suitability beforehand.

Rokodiguini is still largely unproven and whilst I'd hope he can make the step up, not convinced.

Yarde is a mediocre club winger, numerous wingers superior.

May - erratic. For some reason he just can't play well in the 6 nations.

http://rugby.statbunker.com/competitions/LeadingTryScorers?comp_id=525

No Yarde or May here.

Yarde's strike rate is pathetic.


Solomona breaks the myth that you need to be in a good side to score tries.

beshocked wrote:

Cyril wrote:Yeah, I definitely see Daly as a full back. He's got all the attributes.

Plus we've got plenty of wingers and the full-back position is very much up for grabs.

Have plenty of wingers but I'd say only 3 are good enough currently - Nowell,Daly and Watson.

If Daly is moved to FB that leaves England light on good wing cover.

I know May has a significant fan club but he's been dropped numerous times because he's not consistent enough.

Players are allowed a bad game or two but not having more indifferent/poor games than good.

I think that was down to his scrummaging actually....

Disagree with all that BS, quite happy with any our wing stock and I imagine it's one of our strongest areas. I can only think of NZ have more quality and depth.

Sgt Poorly Well you would - you are a champion of mediocre/poor players.

Comparing our wingers to NZ?

One of our strongest areas is clearly lock and I think that's an area we can match the Nzers.

Tell me what you disagree with.

You think Rokodiguini is experienced and proven at international level?

You think Yarde has a good strike rate?

You think May has been consistently good for England?

No,No,No.


Depth doesn't necessarily mean strength.

Yarde's strike rate for England is surprisingly good. 7 tries in 11 games (with 6 of those against RC sides).

1. I said it was ONE of our strongest areas.
2. I didn't compare, I said NZ had more quality and depth.

You just read what you want BS, it's pointless even debating with you.

I don't think Roko has had a fair crack at the whip.

Yarde isn't as bad as is made out...but not a starting wing for me.

May I like. He's got an x factor. Probably not a starter but a bench player definitely.

11 Watson
14 Nowell
15 Daly (When Brown retires)

I hope we don't miss Browns aggression and strength when he does retire,.

Cyril have to factor in club strike rate which is shockingly poor but yes - if you take Yarde's small sample at international level it's quite good.

I am talking more of strike rate in general. O

Sgt Poorly

Didn't answer the questions. If you disagree you need to say what with.

Some things are pointless to debate - agreed.

Geordiefalcon

I understand the fascination with May, he runs fast and he did have a good AIs but it's not enough IMO, not when he can't perform well consistently.

Yarde - I seriously don't understand the support of him, can you explain why you like him?

I agree about Roko - I don't think he's been given a fair go yet, personally I think he's merely a good club man but he needs a chance.

beshocked wrote:Cyril have to factor in club strike rate which is shockingly poor but yes - if you take Yarde's small sample at international level it's quite good.

I am talking more of strike rate in general. O

Sgt Poorly

Didn't answer the questions. If you disagree you need to say what with.

Some things are pointless to debate - agreed.

I ll put you on the spot then Beshocked.

Which wingers would YOU have in the squad...?

GeordieFalcon wrote:
I hope we don't miss Browns aggression and strength when he does retire,.

We will.

Whoever gets the nod to replace him will mean a change of tactics and we will need to play to their strengths.

Let's say Daly and Watson tour with the Lions -

Solomona,Wade,Nowell and Roko.

I don't like Wade defensively but he's a contrast to the likes of Nowell and Daly.

Taking the EQ element out I think those 3 are the current best performers.

You say you like X factor - Wade has it.

If only 3 wingers then Roko misses out for me.

Its essential to have a winger who has that x-factor.

Ok so you'd pick Wade over May. I have no issue with that as I think Wade is marvellous to watch...

Would you trust him in a defensive line against the top international sides?

No not at the moment but then again I wouldn't trust May or Yarde.

At least if Wade got to work with Gustard, maybe he could help him with his defence.

BS, you completely twist what I posted and then give very specific points that of course can be picked at.

May consistency - Yes he can be excellent or average, which players don't do this? With ball in hand/kick chase, he's a real threat. His defence is strong.

Yarde - Strong runner, fast and generally plays better for England than Quins. Not seen him look out of place in an England shirt, great option.

I would take these two wingers over any Irish winger, any Welsh option bar North/Williams and ahead of any Scottish winger.

You're complaining about our 3rd to 5th choice wingers, for gods sake man.

beshocked wrote:No not at the moment but then again I wouldn't trust May or Yarde.

At least if Wade got to work with Gustard, maybe he could help him with his defence.

But Yarde and May have proven they are good enough defenders. Theres been no calamitous defending from either of them. In fact I think May is a solid in defence.

And both Yarde and May have proved they can impress at Int level. Yes they may have the odd off game, but they have the quality required to mix it with the best. Do we have better options? Yes.....great.

We certainly do Sgt.

I love to see a monster come through...like a George North. But we just don't seem able to create them....and don't mention Banahan

It's fair to say England lack a really physical back in their first choice line up. It would've been Tuilagi of course, and then the next nearest is Teo on the bench.
But what they do have is bags of pace and a large number of players with all round footballing skills. If they do beef up the backs it will be at the expense of other areas of the game.

A fit and sparky Tuilagi with more time spent developing his ball handling skills could give England a very different dimension in both attack and defence.
But I suspect we are a long way off seeing that again.

Jones as general rule doesn't seem to like picking players just to fill a role, preferring to get the best players on the pitch doing what they do best and adapting the game plan around that. So I doubt we will see ano English North (cough) in the hear future unless someone comes out of nowhere and tears up the premiership.

It would be nice to have someone will days pace and skills, the try scoring ability of Watson, and the weight of a French prop after a heavy meal but contrary to the way the game was going 10 years or so ago we don't seem to be producing the lumps anymore.

Yeah I agree Gooseberry, Manu is the big loss. He had such physicality and size, and I believe Jones would have worked on making him a better handling player aswell.

Sadly I really don't have any hope of seeing him in an England shirt again.

Its harsh whenever someone comes through in a position we have genuine high hope of....they get crippling injuries.

Tom Rees - Openside
Richard Blaze - I recall he was a real physical lock style that we were waiting for at a time of few
James Simpson Daniel - Well known issues
Corbisieru - Just establishing himself as World Class!
Now Manu

GeordieFalcon wrote:Its harsh whenever someone comes through in a position we have genuine high hope of....they get crippling injuries.

Tom Rees - Openside
Richard Blaze - I recall he was a real physical lock style that we were waiting for at a time of few
James Simpson Daniel - Well known issues
Corbisieru - Just establishing himself as World Class!
Now Manu

"Whenever" is a bit strong... most of these players had promise but we've found genuine replacements for them. Losing Manu opened the door for Joseph, Corbs was a loss but we can hardly complain with Mako and Marler, JSD never achieved his potential but England aren't short of decent wingers, ditto locks.

Rees, I'll give you, was a tremendous loss. He could have been a fantastic player, in a position we have struggled to fill.

Harry Ellis as well, could have been a great 9 for England for a long time but injuries scuppered that.

1.Alex Corbisiero or Trevor Woodman
2.
3.
4.Richard Blaze
5.
6.James Forrester
7.Tom Rees
8.Dan Ward-Smith

9.Harry Ellis
10.Jonny Wilkinson - 4 years in what should have been his prime

11.
12.Stuart Abbott
13.Olly Smith
14.James Simpson-Daniel
15.Olly Morgan

Most wouldn't be relevant now anyway due to age but if it weren't for injuries a few of those names could have added a touch more joy during some barren years for England fans.

king_carlos wrote:1.Alex Corbisiero or Trevor Woodman
2.
3.
4.Richard Blaze
5.
6.James Forrester
7.Tom Rees
8.Dan Ward-Smith

9.Harry Ellis
10.Jonny Wilkinson - 4 years in what should have been his prime

11.
12.Stuart Abbott
13.Olly Smith
14.James Simpson-Daniel
15.Olly Morgan

Most wouldn't be relevant now anyway due to age but if it weren't for injuries a few of those names could have added a touch more joy during some barren years for England fans.

Every time I see a list like that I think it is important to mention Nick Duncombe too.

Never rated Ward-Smith that highly tbh, reminded me a bit of a poor mans Spies. Similar with Simpson Daniel who seemed to get better each time he failed to make a squad due to injury.

lostinwales wrote:Every time I see a list like that I think it is important to mention Nick Duncombe too.

And sadly now Seb Adeniran-Olule. Two players of huge potential sadly lost at far too young an age.

You look at how Wilkinson breathed fresh life into his career with a move, would a move benefit Manu? I know Leicester has been a great home to the Tuilagi's, but at what point do they both accept it's mutually beneficial for him to go elsewhere?

An uninjured club season to prove himself capable of not breaking down would still see him with plenty of playing time, it would just be taking that first step.

Wilkos still wasn't ever the player he was. France did prolong his career by taking him out of the spotlight and retiring from tests early than he might have added another year.
Tuillagi is very young and had been looked after extremely well by a club that also enables him to stay close to his large extended family he live locally.
He did come close to moving to France after feeling hung out to dry by England over the assault charge.
If he did then it would 100% write off his England career till he returned.

What will breathe new life into him is staying fit and out of trouble for 6 months. That's the only way he's going to get back on track. If you look at his record the chances of that happening anywhere aren't too high

king_carlos wrote:1.Alex Corbisiero or Trevor Woodman
2.
3.
4.Richard Blaze
5.
6.James Forrester
7.Tom Rees
8.Dan Ward-Smith

9.Harry Ellis
10.Jonny Wilkinson - 4 years in what should have been his prime

11.
12.Stuart Abbott
13.Olly Smith
14.James Simpson-Daniel
15.Olly Morgan

Most wouldn't be relevant now anyway due to age but if it weren't for injuries a few of those names could have added a touch more joy during some barren years for England fans.

Of those I think Rees was the biggest loss. If he had fullfilled his potential and stayed fit he could have had a big impact on the SL side. Possibly Forrester too.

So given the picks for the two tours, perhaps England will look a bit like this by the time the All Blacks arrive:

Vunipola
George
Sinkler
Itoje
Kruis
Robshaw
Underhill
Vunipola
Youngs
Farrell
Nowell
Mallinder
Daly
Earle
Watson

LCD, Genge, ?, Lawes, A Curry, Maunder, Lozowski, Teo

A huge number of ifs of course - the biggest of which is can Mallinder get his defence to a decent level in the time available. If so then I think that 10, 12, 13 is beautifully balanced. Marler and Cole could easily still be the starting props, Hartley, Haskell, Ford, Joseph, Slade and May could all be involved. Lawes and Launchbury could be the starting locks, one or both of the Currys might be starting, Hughes or Zach Mercer might kick on and/or Solomona might fullfill his potential etc. Hell, Tuilagi might even get and stay fit! I think the two areas of weakness come across clearly as TH and SH. Now we have some young flankers everywhere else it looks like there will be plenty of choice.

DaveM wrote:So given the picks for the two tours, perhaps England will look a bit like this by the time the All Blacks arrive:

Vunipola
George
Sinkler
Itoje
Kruis
Robshaw
Underhill
Vunipola
Youngs
Farrell
Nowell
Mallinder
Daly
Earle
Watson

LCD, Genge, ?, Lawes, A Curry, Maunder, Lozowski, Teo

A huge number of ifs of course - the biggest of which is can Mallinder get his defence to a decent level in the time available. If so then I think that 10, 12, 13 is beautifully balanced. Marler and Cole could easily still be the starting props, Hartley, Haskell, Ford, Joseph, Slade and May could all be involved. Lawes and Launchbury could be the starting locks, one or both of the Currys might be starting, Hughes or Zach Mercer might kick on and/or Solomona might fullfill his potential etc. Hell, Tuilagi might even get and stay fit! I think the two areas of weakness come across clearly as TH and SH. Now we have some young flankers everywhere else it looks like there will be plenty of choice.

DaveM wrote:I think the two areas of weakness come across clearly as TH and SH. Now we have some young flankers everywhere else it looks like there will be plenty of choice.

Really? England have two Lions tightheads including one whos been amongst the top 3 in the world for most his career. Hes only 29, no propoesct of him not being around in 18 months.
The third/fourth choices are a bit thin on the ground yes.
SH too they have two very good options, both of who could have been on the Lions tour and both of whome should be around for the all blacks. Again yes the reserves called up are very raw (although that overlooks guys like Robson whos probably rightly upset), but its not a psoition that needs immediate replacement.

Flanker and fullback is the problem area. Lots of options but none that arre in any way proven, and we may not get to see much of the players likely to take on those positions (whoa re with the lions) on this tour. The guys being tried out for the most part have a long shot of getting capped again in the immediate future pending injury (if they do at all), perhaps with the excpetion of Underhill.

8 though is a real position of weakness. Behnind Vunipola they are left with a guy whos come up short when given chances so far.

Centers for a change are starting to show some depth with Slade likely to get a chance at last to add to Farrell and Teo as genuine optiosn. Im less convinced that Mallinder wil suddenly prove hes up to the starters job off the back of a couple of games on this tour.

Mallinder has a lot of the characteristics that made Twelvetrees an exciting prospect - I do hope that Mallinder is given a proper chance to showcase.

8 in the coming years we have mercer. Think Chisholm could play there. Clifford is probably seen more as an 8 by Jones and won motm there against Wales. Problem is as ever there are too many options for England and not enough games.

No 7&1/2 wrote:8 in the coming years we have mercer. Think Chisholm could play there. Clifford is probably seen more as an 8 by Jones and won motm there against Wales.  Problem is as ever there are too many options for England and not enough games.

Corbisiero said on his NBC podcast that the England pre-World Cup training camp had too many players. He felt that, a few months away from the tournament, players should have been clearer on the preferred combinations, and used the time to get more familiar with each other. Instead, he felt there was a lot of performance measurement with not enough time spent with ball in hand.

Separately, I was listening to Ben Darwin on the Green and Gold podcast talk about his sports analytics company. Darwin places a lot of value on cohesion, and finds ways to measure it. He suggested that England have one of the least cohesive set-ups, and so it tends to take us a long run of games to get in synch. By contrast, he thought the NZ structure means they come together quickly from a standing start.

This is just two ways of making a similar point. There are lots of good England players but not enough time to experiment with the best combinations while also giving a core of players a decent run together. The coach has to be a brutal selector but also astute, or lucky enough, to settle on a preferred core very early in a World Cup cycle.

Seems that Jones has decided to use this tour to spread his net wide, and get some young players aligned with the attitudes he wants to see in a potential England player.

Gooseberry wrote:

DaveM wrote:I think the two areas of weakness come across clearly as TH and SH. Now we have some young flankers everywhere else it looks like there will be plenty of choice.

Really? England have two Lions tightheads including one whos been amongst the top 3 in the world for most his career. Hes only 29, no propoesct of him not being around in 18 months.
The third/fourth choices are a bit thin on the ground yes.
SH too they have two very good options, both of who could have been on the Lions tour and both of whome should be around for the all blacks. Again yes the reserves called up are very raw (although that overlooks guys like Robson whos probably rightly upset), but its not a psoition that needs immediate replacement.

Flanker and fullback is the problem area. Lots of options but none that arre in any way proven, and we may not get to see much of the players likely to take on those positions (whoa re with the lions) on this tour. The guys being tried out for the most part have a long shot of getting capped again in the  immediate future pending injury (if they do at all), perhaps with the excpetion of Underhill.

8 though is a real position of weakness. Behnind Vunipola they are left with a guy whos come up short when given chances so far.

Centers for a change are starting to show some depth with Slade likely to get a chance at last to add to Farrell and Teo as genuine optiosn. Im less convinced that Mallinder wil suddenly prove hes up to the starters job off the back of a couple of games on this tour.

Yes, only having two credible candidates for TH and SH makes them problem positions. And even then Sinkler still has a lot to learn and Cole hasn't become the dominant player we would have hoped, and Youngs blows hot and cold and Care is probably past his best. Definitely areas where another couple of options would be very handy.

The fact that none of the flanker and fullback options are proven doesn't really concern me - the talent is obvious and I'm confident some of them will kick on. Similarly, there are contenders at number 8. Mercer is a fantastic talent.

Finally this tour won't be enough to make Mallinder a starter, but we don't play the All Blacks for 18 months.

A definite evolution will be the replacement of Hartley as captain. I am certain Itoje is the future and that his leadership will define the progress of the team especially as a totum for the new generation to mark as their own.

kingelderfield wrote:A definite evolution will be the replacement of Hartley as captain. I am certain Itoje is the future and that his leadership will define the progress of the team especially as a totum for the new generation to mark as their own.

Or Farrell. I predict he will come of age in the next two months and though i always think a skipper should be in the pack he is the real deal and one of the very few Home Nations players i wish Wales had on their side.

I don't think Farrell is a 'leader' in the traditional sense.