Monte Carlo

by sirfredperry Wed 12 Apr 2017, 10:01 am

Murray came thru an exhibition match with Fed on Monday but was still unsure if he would compete at Monte Carlo. He said afterwards that if he was not ready next week he would aim to play the week after that.
I'm tipping Rafa to have a good clay-court season and, of course, his big chance to gain points will come at RG. Twould be foolish to write off Djoko's chances. It would be nice to see del Po getting some more-favourable draws and getting his ranking up. Wonder if Fed will decide, after all, to fit at least one tournament in before RG. Can anyone see a player outside the big 4/5 making a move?

by Guest82 Wed 12 Apr 2017, 10:41 am

Thiem should make a move this clay season.

He wasn't too far off last year and the players above him have declined or are not in great form.

by sirfredperry Thu 13 Apr 2017, 4:28 pm

While we await the draw for Monte Carlo, we can express surprise at a result from Marrakech this week, where Tommy Robredo has beaten Dimi. After a bright start to the season Dimi has gone off the boil.

by Nadalnation Fri 14 Apr 2017, 2:11 pm

Hello

by **JuliusHMarx** Fri 14 Apr 2017, 2:16 pm

Nadalnation wrote:Hello

Hello and welcome!

by Guest82 Fri 14 Apr 2017, 6:44 pm

Djokovic v Nadal projected semi final at Monte Carlo.

Murray is in the draw, Muller or Robredo second round.

Murray v Cilic
Stan v Tsonga
Rafa v Dimitrov
Nole v Thiem

Projected quarter finals.

Edmund v Evans in R1. Winner to play Rafa

by sirfredperry Fri 14 Apr 2017, 7:43 pm

Good news for GB. One of Edmund/Evans makes the second round. Bad news. They'll then meet Rafa.
Good draw for Murray, in that he's avoided Rafa in his half.

by Guest Fri 14 Apr 2017, 9:26 pm

sirfredperry wrote:Good news for GB. One of Edmund/Evans makes the second round. Bad news. They'll then meet Rafa.
...

I see it as a win win opportunity for both of them. They get to fight it out over who gets the privilege of playing against Rafa in the next round. If they beat Rafa (no chance) they will instantly get world wide attention, lose and they had experienced battling against the all time king of clay on clay, a career highlight and something to tell their grandchildren.

by summerblues Sat 15 Apr 2017, 11:58 am

sirfredperry wrote:Can anyone see a player outside the big 4/5 making a move?

I think Zverev could do well. He has been playing well but had bad luck running into and being overshadowed by Kyrgios. His game translates well to clay.

Thiem should also do well, he is first a clay courter after all, but i am not convinced about his form.

Kyrgios might also do well. His game is better suited to HC or grass, but these days there is not that much difference between surfaces and there is nothing about his game that should specifically make it impossible to do well. We will have to wait until after MC with him.

by summerblues Sat 15 Apr 2017, 12:02 pm

Should Rafa and Zverev advance to meet, that could be a good match. It could tell us about Rafa's form (I am still unconvinced). Zverev should be able to test him - maybe even beat him - unless Rafa is near his best.

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 15 Apr 2017, 1:05 pm

Come on SB, all I hear from you are negatives about Rafa! If Rafa could beat AZverev on HC even when not playing his best, do you think he would lose to Zverev on clay? I have the feeling you're just wishing for Rafa to be beaten all the time!

by Haddie-nuff Sat 15 Apr 2017, 1:57 pm

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Come on SB, all I hear from you are negatives about Rafa! If Rafa could beat AZverev on HC even when not playing his best, do you think he would lose to Zverev on clay? I have the feeling you're just wishing for Rafa to be beaten all the time!

Spot on

by summerblues Sat 15 Apr 2017, 6:10 pm

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Come on SB, all I hear from you are negatives about Rafa! If Rafa could beat AZverev on HC even when not playing his best, do you think he would lose to Zverev on clay? I have the feeling you're just wishing for Rafa to be beaten all the time!

Hah! I am certainly wishing for Rafa to be beaten all the time and who knows maybe it is spilling into my analysis (we people tend to be biased) but I am saying what I honestly believe. I do think Zverev could give him a good fight. Here is in a little more detail how I see it:

1. When they both play their best, Rafa wins.

2. I think Rafa's play has been slightly overrated this season. He played quite well at AO (though still quite some way below his very best from a few years back), and he has been playing more poorly since then. Overall, I do not think he has been playing that much better than 2015/16.

3. Zverev has been playing quite well by his standards (obviously, his average standard is below Rafa's) and some tough draws hide that a little. He had a close match against Rafa at AO and he was beaten twice by very well playing Kyrgios (one of those matches was very close). He also won a small tournament. Clay is a good surface for him and with his height he should be able to handle Rafa's spin.

4. I would still make Rafa the favorite, but I would not be shocked at all if he lost, and I would think Zverev should at least be competitive.

Anyway, we will see soon enough if I am right. Maybe I am all wrong and Rafa just blows him away. Or maybe Zverev does not even make it that far.

by Haddie-nuff Sat 15 Apr 2017, 6:59 pm

Quote
4. I would still make Rafa the favorite, but I would not be shocked at all if he lost

Well how much of that could be said about any of the top players.. it all comes down to biased opinion... or in your case wishful thinking.
He may well not be at his absolute best but he is better than you make him out to be

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 15 Apr 2017, 7:16 pm

Exactly Haddie!

Rafa at less than 100% is still better than anyone except Djoko, on clay. So what with Zverev's height? Delpo is as tall and more powerful, still couldn't beat Rafa on clay when Rafa was < 100%.

Whether Zverev played well or not vs Kygrios had nothing to do with him on clay vs Rafa! Are we comparing Kygrios on HC to Rafa on clay??

Rafa when not playing his best still could reach three finals on the HCs including a slam and a Masters, what more when playing on clay?

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 15 Apr 2017, 7:22 pm

Of course SB's biased analysis was blinded by his total dislike of Rafa; just like those people's by their total dislike of Fed!

by Haddie-nuff Sat 15 Apr 2017, 7:38 pm

There are not many who would back their chances against Rafa on clay and that includes Fed !!

by summerblues Sat 15 Apr 2017, 10:18 pm

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Of course SB's biased analysis was blinded by his total dislike of Rafa

by Henman Bill Sun 16 Apr 2017, 2:29 am

All he said was

Zverev should be able to test him - maybe even beat him - unless Rafa is near his best

pretty uncontroversial and unbiased if you ask me.

I don't think you are letting your preferences bias your analysis SB - and if you are certainly only very slightly.

by Henman Bill Sun 16 Apr 2017, 2:39 am

Just reminding myself of the results from last season, Rafa won Monte Carlo defeating Thiem, Stan, Murray and Monfils, won Barcelona defeating Nishikori, but lost to Murray and Djokovic in the Madrid and Rome masters respectively. And then unfortunately injury at the FO. Wasn't too bad at all. Only needs a modest improvement to have a very good clay season, given Novak's form.

I think people like Kyrgios, Thiem, Federer, Murray, Zverev are capable of beating the current Rafa more so than the past Rafa. But on clay it needs either a really sub-par Rafa, or them on the top of their game, or for a best of three sets, maybe just playing really aggressively and getting a bit lucky with that. Unlikely but would not be a huge surprise if it happens.

by Haddie-nuff Sun 16 Apr 2017, 7:01 am

Henman Bill wrote:All he said was

Zverev should be able to test him - maybe even beat him - unless Rafa is near his best

pretty uncontroversial and unbiased if you ask me.

I don't think you are letting your preferences bias your analysis SB - and if you are certainly only very slightly.

It wasn't all he said though was it HB.. in your attempts to defend you resort to cherry picking

This is also what he said
Hah! I am certainly wishing for Rafa to be beaten all the time and who knows maybe it is spilling into my analysis

Not sure I call that unbiased Wink

by Born Slippy Sun 16 Apr 2017, 10:39 am

summerblues wrote:Should Rafa and Zverev advance to meet, that could be a good match. It could tell us about Rafa's form (I am still unconvinced). Zverev should be able to test him - maybe even beat him - unless Rafa is near his best.

Agree with this. I'd be surprised if Rafa lost to him but I'm very unconvinced that Rafa is anywhere near his best. I can see that being a very interesting match.

The big question is what will happen if Rafa and Novak play. Novak has destroyed Rafa time and time again on all surfaces but has been out of sorts for a while. I'm expecting Novak to dominate clay again this year but, if he's a little rusty, it may give Rafa a chance to rebuild his confidence.

by Belovedluckyboy Sun 16 Apr 2017, 11:51 am

Exactly Haddie. Henman Bill failed to pick up what SB had written, about wanting to see Rafa losing all the time!

by Belovedluckyboy Sun 16 Apr 2017, 11:57 am

BS, don't be too optimistic about Djoko! He called for trainer to attend to his right arm during practice session. I doubt he's fully recovered from his injury. He didn't look too convincing during D.C. tie against Spain.

I don't think you/we can use IW/Miami to gauge where Rafa is at when on clay; he did poorly last year at IW/Miami but won at MC and Barcelona beating some top ten players along the way. I think Murray and Kei at least played better last year than this year, there's no reason to believe that Rafa would do worse on clay this season given that the field doesn't look that strong this season imo.

by CaledonianCraig Sun 16 Apr 2017, 12:13 pm

If you were to give me money now to place a bet on who would win the French Open right now it would be on Rafa Nadal. Novak is going through the leanest form of his career, Murray is toiling with injury and they were the French Open finalists last year. This year (for those that say Rafa is not convincing them with his form) then he reached the final of the Australian Open on a hard court. This is clay. A surface that he has dominated like no other tennis player in the history of the sport with two of last year's form players off tune. That is why my money would be on Rafa.

by Haddie-nuff Sun 16 Apr 2017, 2:22 pm

I am not certain about Rafa but saying that I'm none too certain about Novak or Andy either, both have had layoffs with illness and injury so how you can say that Rafa is not up there with the hopefuls fails me. Like CC said he has made two finals on HC this season (not exactly his favourite surface) so he has every chance, and his fans every hope, that he can make the necessary improvements to go further this clay court season. He has had two encounters with Zverev and won both on HC so clay must be to his advantage

by sirfredperry Sun 16 Apr 2017, 5:22 pm

Ahead of Monte Carlo, Coric has just beaten Kohlschreiber in Marrakech final after saving a Championship point in the second set and being a break down in the third.

by Nadalnation Sun 16 Apr 2017, 5:30 pm

I think rafa is the favourite

Then novak then Roger then Stan.

I don't give Murray any chance of winning RG.

by Guest82 Mon 17 Apr 2017, 8:37 am

If the Zverev match at the AO was BO3 then he would have lost. I don't think it is biased to suggest that Rafa is favourite, but could potentially lose to a talented guy playing well.

I don't think anyone (bar Federer of course) has looked particularly secure to win every match this season. I really want to see a Rafa v Djokovic semi final, but wouldn't be at all surprised if one or both lost earlier.

by Belovedluckyboy Mon 17 Apr 2017, 10:43 am

If it's a slam and BO3, you think Rafa would let the third set slipped away?

by Belovedluckyboy Mon 17 Apr 2017, 10:46 am

Also it's clay we are talking about now, not HC; and I doubt on clay Fed would be secured to win every match he plays!

by Haddie-nuff Mon 17 Apr 2017, 11:01 am

Fed has won but played at times just ok, I would not have said on one or two occasions he looked secure.. no player is secure such is the game of tennis

by Belovedluckyboy Mon 17 Apr 2017, 11:57 am

Exactly Haddie, Fed almost lost to Berdych facing a MP, he certainly didn't look secured in that match!

by sirfredperry Mon 17 Apr 2017, 5:52 pm

I see Kyle Edmund beat Dan Evans in straight sets at MC today, even though Evans was a break up in the first set. Nice easy match next for Kyle, now....Rafa!

by Haddie-nuff Mon 17 Apr 2017, 6:07 pm

Fognini out.. is he not the most frustrating player to watch?.. he has patches of sheer brilliance followed by total lack of concentration.. tantrums and ambivalence .shame. he could, and should, be among the top players on tour but for his mind set. Shows how those at the top got there by controlling how they think and behave on court ..talent alone is not enough and they have proved it.

by Guest82 Mon 17 Apr 2017, 7:40 pm

Don't think Evans is very well suited to clay. Be surprised if he wins more than a couple of matches in the whole clay swing. Edmund is probably at his best on clay too. Obviously he won't win, but if he plays well Edmund can give Rafa something to think about.

Thought Fognini had turned a corner this season, but maybe not. That said PCB isn't an easy draw.

by Haddie-nuff Mon 17 Apr 2017, 8:04 pm

PCB wasn't his problem... HE was his problem as always

by sirfredperry Tue 18 Apr 2017, 9:39 am

Djoko in action today. I'm expecting a good run from Nole. Most, I guess, are hoping for a semi clash with Rafa.

by CaledonianCraig Tue 18 Apr 2017, 4:06 pm

sirfredperry wrote:Djoko in action today. I'm expecting a good run from Nole. Most, I guess, are hoping for a semi clash with Rafa.

Embroiled in a real scrap at present though. Novak won the first set 6-3 and was a break up in the second but errors began flowing and he handed the set to a very stubborn Simon 6-3. Now on serve at 2-2 in the third set.

by CaledonianCraig Tue 18 Apr 2017, 4:32 pm

Unbelievably, Simon is about to serve for the match leading 3-6 6-3 5-4. Djokovic just not being as mentally strong at times when he used to be a rock.

by CaledonianCraig Tue 18 Apr 2017, 4:36 pm

Simon blinks and chucks in a weak game and Djokovic lives on as we are back level at 5-5 in the final set.

by CaledonianCraig Tue 18 Apr 2017, 4:40 pm

Djokovic holds his nerve and serve to lead 6-5 in the final set. Simon will need to dig deep to hold serve here and force a tie-break.

by CaledonianCraig Tue 18 Apr 2017, 4:46 pm

And Djokovic comes good in the end to win 6-3 3-6 7-5. A win that is not too impressive form-wise but it may give Djoko that mental lift he is looking for. Great match which lasted almost two and a half hours.

by Haddie-nuff Tue 18 Apr 2017, 4:48 pm

And Simon can lose a match as good as Berdych Rolling Eyes

by sirfredperry Tue 18 Apr 2017, 4:51 pm

Wow. Djoko was close to defeat. Just the sort of match you want early in a tournament. It's a struggle, but you come through.

by Haddie-nuff Tue 18 Apr 2017, 4:55 pm

With a little help from Simon of course Wink

by CaledonianCraig Tue 18 Apr 2017, 5:05 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:With a little help from Simon of course

Sometimes that is all it takes. Winning a match you looked like losing or should have lost can sometimes be a better mental fillup than a mundane straight sets win when untested.

by slashermcguirk Wed 19 Apr 2017, 8:53 am

I agree CC, its amazing how often a player goes on to have a good tournament after having to fight to come through a match like that in the early rounds. Djokovic is still a mile away from where he needs to be but wins like this are important for confidence. Simon can be a tricky opponent even if he is well past his best. He has the game to frustrate players as he gets a lot of balls back, he always had very good balance and moves quick around the court. I think he was in the top 10 at one point, right?

Anyway, Novak still very much an outsider going on form but if he can get a few good wins under his belt hopefully some confidence will return. I cant get over how far his game has fallen vs his peak play early last year. I think back to Novaks semi final annihilation of Federer in the Australian open last year, one of the highest levels of tennis I have ever seen on a tennis court in the first 2 sets. A very different player to the novak we see now...........a mix of lack of confidence, lack of practise and motivation waning.

by sirfredperry Wed 19 Apr 2017, 9:25 am

Let's hope Andy can get through today. Faces a similar tricky opening match as Djoko. Hope that Edmund can at least give Rafa something of a match.

by Belovedluckyboy Wed 19 Apr 2017, 1:07 pm

Djoko's AO2016 SF and F, plus Doha final level of play simply not sustainable week after week. Ive seen Rafa playing like that on clay - FO2008, MC2010 - those level of play were simply unplayable. Fed too has his - like AO2007; Cincy 2009 SF and Final, and Wimbledon 2015 SF.

Since all those matches, Ive not seen them playing near those level.

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