Slam seedings

An update on the likely Slam seedings midway through the clay season:

For the 'big four' (can we still call them like that?), the masters 1000 events are nice to win but mainly a means to manoeuvre themselves into a favourable position for the events that really count: the Slams.

• Murray is still miles ahead of the rest and will be #1 seed at both RG and Wimbledon
  
• Djokovic' #2 seed at Wimbledon is at risk. Unless the Djoker suddenly finds his form, Nadal is likely to overtake him. Even the bonus points from Wimbledon 2015 won't help.
  
• Rafa, who is hoovering up all the clay season points like in the good old days, has pretty much secured himself a top 4 seeding at both RG and Wimbledon. In fact, with Djokovic losing points every week, Rafa even has a real chance to be #2 seed at Wimbledon!
  
• Federer has dropped out of the top 4 and thus might get a brutal RG draw. But his chances of a Wimbledon seeding are better: thanks to the grass bonus points from 2015 and 2016, he will most likely overtake Wawrinka. Theoretically he could even get ahead of Djokovic and Rafa, but only if he outperforms them both at RG.
  

Wawrinka doesn't seem too concerned about collecting points at the 1000-level and just hopes he can hit another purple patch during the Slams!

Federer might be better off playing Rafa in the quarter finals at RG. He'll have less miles on the clock at this point.

Nowhere else to put this.
Federer out of the French No injury reason he's just putting most his eggs in a Wimbledon sized basket

Who goes 4th seed? Stan I guess?

Fed was fifth seed anyway. Stan will be 3rd or 4th depending on his and Rafas performance in Rome.

Nishikori or Goffin will likely benefit from a top 8 seed

Surprising as he recently stated he will play the French and not just to "show up" but to try and do some damage.
Hopefully no concrete worries with regard to injury!

I guess he never really intended to play it. Just kept the sponsors happy and his options open.

He's been posting videos of him practicing on hard courts

I feel vindicated in suggesting Roger Federer miss Roland Garros and the whole clay court swing to focus on the grass season and hard court season.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/39930092

I also made the suggestion for Rafael Nadal to miss the short grass court season to prepare for the hard court season and preserve his joints and his career.  But that suggestion was considered as ludicrous by someone.

temporary21 wrote:Nowhere else to put this.
Federer out of the French   No injury reason he's just putting most his eggs in a Wimbledon sized basket

Who goes 4th seed? Stan I guess?

When I suggested Roger Federer miss RG my reasoning was why waste time practising and adjusting for one clay court tournament which is going to be gruelling on the body and risk tweaking something or causing a further injury that will shorten his career. He would have to habituate his body for the clay - for one gruelling tournament, and then the change to grass conditions - would put a further shock on the body - as he readjusted to completely different conditions. With grass and the hard courts he can play to keep the points short and be off the court in double quick time. With the clay he might be dragged into energy sapping matches.

Maybe he was thinking about the no 1 ranking but reckons he's gonna have to go big he rest of the year now to get it

Either way it's still a stacked rg

I think Federer might have said he has no interest in the number one ranking - he is just trying to keep healthy to attack a few more big tournaments. If he wins big tournaments on the grass and hard courts - that will probably give him the number one ranking - but I don't think that is a target of his.

Would Federer withdraw from the French (the 2nd most important event in tennis on par with the USO) if he thought he'd have a reasonable chance to win it? I don't think so. So the reason must be he thinks he doesn't have a reasonable chance. Dropping to #5 in the rankings reduced his chances and maybe it's not a coincidence the announcement came on the same day that happened.

True, RG is a tough tournament for a 35-year old. But look at 30-year old injury-prone Nadal, who plays such a physical game (unlike Federer) and is on target to win MC-Barcelona-Madrid-Rome-RG!
Even with the lack of practice on clay, Federer would probably have safely cruised through the first week at RG. Of his last 11 appearances he failed to reach the QF only once. But the second week is when it gets tough. Having to beat Djokovic, Murray or Nadal just to reach the semis is a bit too much too ask. If those guys could slug it out and Federer could take them on in the semis or final it would be a different case.

Of course one could argue that Federer won the AO as #17 seed, so seeding is not all that relevant, but that was an anomaly as both Murray and Djokovic lost early (which they hardly ever do in Slams) and Nadal was still gaining back confidence (which he has done by now!).

I wouldn't back Murray and Djokovic to make the quarter finals of RG at the moment. Depending on the draw, Djokovic will likely lose to the first half decent player he plays.

Murray could be even worse. He just lost to Coric!

In the AO fed got a slice of luck in the quarters

Instead of a slug fest against Murray after 5 sets with nishikori he got a near walkover with mischa

Not to take anything away of course. But it was a slice of luck that if wasn't the case he may have run out of gas

He isn't nearly as likely to avoid Djokovic or Murray in rg

temporary21 wrote:In the AO fed got a slice of luck in the quarters  

Instead of a slug fest against Murray after 5 sets with nishikori he got a near walkover with mischa

Not to take anything away of course. But it was a slice of luck that if wasn't the case he may have run out of gas

He isn't nearly as likely to avoid Djokovic or Murray in rg

Nothing else in their performances this year would suggest either Murray or Djokovic would trouble Federer.

Murray lost to Coric and Ramos-Vinolas this clay season. Djokovic has gone life and death with Simon, Almagro and PCB.

Federer probably thought that he'd be really underprepared for Clay if he did play RG and in the end, is it worth it?

They don't go down quickly either though

They fight. You can't take that away from them. They sap your energyvaway

prostaff85 wrote:An update on the likely Slam seedings midway through the clay season:

For the 'big four' (can we still call them like that?), the masters 1000 events are nice to win but mainly a means to manoeuvre themselves into a favourable position for the events that really count: the Slams.

• Murray is still miles ahead of the rest and will be #1 seed at both RG and Wimbledon
  
• Djokovic' #2 seed at Wimbledon is at risk. Unless the Djoker suddenly finds his form, Nadal is likely to overtake him. Even the bonus points from Wimbledon 2015 won't help.
  
• Rafa, who is hoovering up all the clay season points like in the good old days, has pretty much secured himself a top 4 seeding at both RG and Wimbledon. In fact, with Djokovic losing points every week, Rafa even has a real chance to be #2 seed at Wimbledon!
  
• Federer has dropped out of the top 4 and thus might get a brutal RG draw. But his chances of a Wimbledon seeding are better: thanks to the grass bonus points from 2015 and 2016, he will most likely overtake Wawrinka. Theoretically he could even get ahead of Djokovic and Rafa, but only if he outperforms them both at RG.
  

Wawrinka doesn't seem too concerned about collecting points at the 1000-level and just hopes he can hit another purple patch during the Slams!

Federer's RG withdrawal hasn't changed the situation much: he is still likely to be #4 seed at Wimbledon, unless Wawrinka wins RG. Others' chances to overtake him are mostly theoretical.
But obviously at Wimbledon there are many dangerous players outside the top 4: Kyrgios, Raonic, Dimitrov, Tsonga, Zverev to name a few. Federer still needs some luck with the draw.

With the Nadal-Wawrinka final in Paris, Federer has now dropped out of the top 4 for Wimbledon seeding. He needs to do well in Stuttgart/Halle to overtake the loser of the RG final and secure a top 4 seeding.