#1 Spot Chase

With Murray continuing to struggle (and Djokovic maybe resurgent?), the fight for #1 spot could heat up very soon and, instead of a 2-man show, it could be a brawl this time.

I thought that Andy's #1 spot was reasonably safe until after the USO, but it no longer looks that way.  He should be ok until Wimbledon, but after that anything could happen.  Here are the points that the top 5 have earned starting after Wimbledon last year, and through now.  So any points they will earn through Wimbledon will be additive to this:

(current rankings in parentheses):

1 (1) Murray - 6670 pts
2. (2) Djokovic - 5355 (can win another 400pts in Rome)
3. (4) Nadal - 5285
4. (3) Wawrinka - 4930
5. (5) Federer - 4045

If Murray wakes up and earns serious points at RG or W, he will be safe a little longer.  But if he continues to struggle, it now seems likely he would lose #1 ranking right after Wimbledon.

If any of Djokovic, Nadal or Warinka wins RG, they will have a very good chance to reach #1 after Wimbledon.  Also, after Wimbledon, we could have a stretch where all five are fighting for #1 spot for a while.

It's many years since the number one spot changed hands with any frequency. Since Fed took over in early 2004, all those who have reached the top have put in good runs once there. Could become quite exciting.

How many weeks wil Murray have had if he loses it after wimb?

If I am counting it correctly, 33.  Mind you, I still think it is by some distance the likeliest scenario that he will keep it until after the USO.  In order to lose it after Wimbledon he would have to perform miserably not only at RG but also on grass (and even then it is not entirely certain).  I expect that more likely than not, he will start getting some results before then.

That's not a bad haul if it is to be his only run

Looks like things will get interesting after FO.