RG - The Finals

The women's final today and the men's on Sunday. Ostapenko will probably make too many UEs to win against Halep who is a great scrapper and should take the title.
   Rafa is clear favourite against Stan, who also had a long semi with Andy. But Stan has never lost a GS final and will not be overawed. He gave Djoko a set start in the RG final of 2015 and still won. But it's going to take one of Stan's special days to topple Rafa.
   A win tomorrow will put Rafa in a good position to be year-end number one. Whatever happens, it's going to be another big title won by a 30-something, with those in their fourth decade likely to chalk up a record number of tournament wins this year (I'm not sure what the 30-plus title record is).

sirfredperry wrote:... Rafa is clear favourite against Stan, who also had a long semi with Andy. But Stan has never lost a GS final and will not be overawed. He gave Djoko a set start in the RG final of 2015 and still won. ...

I would be interested in people putting a percentage onto their predictions.  I was impressed by Wawrinka in the manner in which he beat Murray.  He was able to conserve his energy with Murray - and took his reward in the fifth set when Murray was spent.

I am finding it hard to put a percentage on who I think is going to win.  When I consider Rafa as favorite - am I putting too much weight on Rafa's past performances up to 2014? Rafa is surely a different species of player now, compared to before.  Wawrinka always seems to raise his game when you don't expect it - beating a rampant Djokovic in 2015 for instance fairly easily.  Wawrinka peak performances have been in his late twenties and early thirties - he still seems to be at that peak level.  Rafa on the other hand is not as good as his peak - when he was winning or competing in all the slams.

I am really struggling - is it 50 - 50?  60 - 40 in favour of Rafa?  Surely not 70 - 30 in favour of Rafa.  I am thinking maybe something like 55 - 45 in favour of Rafa - but I really have difficulty calling it.

NNB - I'm prepared to stick my neck out and say it's actually 80-20 for Rafa. Mind you, I never expected Trump to beat Clinton, the UK to vote for Brexit and for Theresa May to fail to get a big majority in the 2017 General Election.
   As someone once said: "Forecasting is difficult, particularly forecasting the future."

I've seen the last couple of Rafa-Stan matches, when Rafa was out of form. Hard to get past the way Stan gave up after a couple of games of realising he couldn't deal with Rafa's forehand. He seemed to have no idea what to do. Stan's also probably the fittest guy on tour but even he will be feeling a 4.5 hour war at age 32.

Taking all that into account, I think it's going to be very one-sided tomorrow. I'm going for Rafa 6/3 6/2 6/1. He won't quite beat Borg's record of dropping 32 games in a slam but I think he will get close.

Enthralling first set of the ladies' final.

Enthralling second set of the ladies' final.

I wasn't planning on watching the whole match but it was a really engaging final with some amazing shot-making from Ostapenko.

I suppose the poor level of serving and number of breaks was not too much of a surprise but it's frustrating that Halep didn't deploy more variety with her groundstrokes - it was either passive flat swings or lofty moonballs 95% of the time. When most on the WTA tour deploy the relentless heavy hitting strategy, surely those who lack the natural power would do well to change things up. I mean even using a few more slices or drop shots could have helped to keep Ostapenko off-balance. I feel this lack of variety is a wider WTA tour issue though...

Still, an entertaining final and Ostapenko is a worthy winner - I hope she can maintain the form and attacking intent but also try to become a more rounded player; she certainly has great weapons to work with.

The ladies final, just hard hitting from the baseline, quite one dimensional play. They didn't even approach the net, not even one single time, no drop shot, no once in a while net rushing. It's like whoever hits harder and not missing would win. Ostapenko simply overpowered Halep, from both wings, even her returns were hit so hard, poor Halep didn't even have time to react to the ROS!

Ostapenko's FH is simply awesome, for a young lady she certainly has awesome power, and as a twenty year old, she certainly has nerve of steel, so calm in her first ever slam final!

I feel sorry for Halep, I thought she had it when she was leading in the second set, too bad it's not meant to be, and the no. 1 ranking too. How nice if she wins the slam title and then becomes no.1, just like Ana Ivanovic after winning the FO in 2008.

I switched onto the BBC radio coverage in the third set only to discover what sounded like a hyena trying to mate with a chimpanzee - so quickly turned it off. Right pair of squawkers they are - so I am steering clear of it all.

Halep inferred she was unwell - stomach cramps - maybe female issues.

Had to watch with the sound turned down due to the shrieking but an enthralling match. Too many errors from Osta for it to be a classic and Halep must be kicking herself after chucking away winning positions in both the second and third sets.
   Osta was quite happy to hit UEs when she could also hit so many winners. But Halep just couldn't take the young Latvian out of her comfort zone. As has been noted above, there were no slices or drop shots. I would love to see an all-guns-blazing Osta playing someone like Radwanska, who would slowball, slice, dice and mix it up. 
   But this girl has real power and seems unafraid. She's a GS winner - and that's something.

For tomorrow - good luck to Stan (he will need it).  I expect he will lose in straight sets but if anyone can beat Rafa this year, it is him.

Born Slippy wrote:I've seen the last couple of Rafa-Stan matches, when Rafa was out of form. Hard to get past the way Stan gave up after a couple of games of realising he couldn't deal with Rafa's forehand. He seemed to have no idea what to do.

I kind of tend to agree that Stan may quickly find that he does not know how to handle Rafa's shots and cannot hit through him, and might even fold.  I am just not sure I would rely too much on their recent matches to infer it.  Stan had played some stinkers vs Nole too outside slams, but he always played much better in slams (after 2012).

Looks as if its going to be dry and bright in Paris which will undoubtedly help Rafa. I don't think he'll actually need much help as I think he'll be lifting the trophy for the 10th time this afternoon.
   Just where is there left in Paris that they haven't taken him to for the winner-with-cup pics they have on Monday morning? You win it once and it's the Eiffel Tower, twice may be Notre Dame. But the 10th time?

Born Slippy wrote: ... Taking all that into account, I think it's going to be very one-sided tomorrow. I'm going for Rafa 6/3 6/2 6/1. He won't quite beat Borg's record of dropping 32 games in a slam but I think he will get close.

You should put money on it - Rafa to win and dropping only 6 games in the process.  Personally I don't see any evidence for it.  It might possibly happen but I see it as a very very low probability outcome.

sirfredperry wrote:Just where is there left in Paris that they haven't taken him to for the winner-with-cup pics they have on Monday morning? You win it once and it's the Eiffel Tower, twice may be Notre Dame. But the 10th time?

Photo-shoot in Mallorca?

I will go for a scoreline along the lines of 7-5 6-4 6-2 for Rafa.

Funny career Wawrinka has achieved, a journeyman for many years and then suddenly it all clicked. If he was more dedicated earlier in his career he may well have won 5/6/7 majors.

Not to suggest that 3 isn't a great career

Nadal finding resistance. New scenario. Now we will know if all the ease untill today can turn agasint him

I think Nadal has settled better in the early part of the match.

All Wawrinka's Majors have come under Norman. Norman also coached Soderling when Soderling achieved career best numbers in 2009-2010. Credit is due Norman, too.

The only other time Wawrinka did anything significant was 2008 with Federer and then again in DC.

Born Slippy's prediction is on track for the first set.

Not looking good for Wawrinka  - and it seems to be going the way BS predicted.  Nadal just looks like he has this under control, while Wawrinka looking a bit confused and not playing brilliantly.

If Nadal rolls over Wawrinka - they need to preserve Nadal just for the slams in future (maybe just Australian Open and French Open) - because without injury Nadal can keep going for a few years.

so far, Nadal in absolute control

Watching this it is a very fair assessment to say that Rafa is so far ahead of even the very best on clay unlike the margins of even Roger has over others on grass or Novak has had in Australia. Frighteningly superior. It is now a matter of time before he wins No 10. An unreal achievement that I never thought I'd live to see in my lifetime.

well this is a woeful final already. what an anti climax!

To be fair to the girls, Nadal is probably outdoing them in the grunting department - but in a lower register.   Apart from this have to be really impressed with Nadal.

Mine own executioner

Supreme stuff from Rafa Nadal. It is just a case of completing the coupe de gras.

He has truly earned his title "The King of Clay" but OMG he is so ruthless

the best ever to play on clay

I have to go somewhere for now. I apologise to Born Slippy for doubting his prediction.

Impressive win and record coming up for Nadal.

I do think Wawrinka was the second best player in the tournament - I just didn't expect Nadal to be so far ahead of him.

Agree re Nadal and the grunting. If there is a line to be blurred between being competitive and cheating than Nadal blurs it.

The above aside - he's some player on clay. Scary good.

Well done champ...

Fabulous win for Rafa. Only his 2008 win compares to the dominance of this display and my view is that his level was a step higher here. Moves him up to Number 2 in the grand slam list. 35 games lost all tournament.

It was never in doubt for me. As soon as I saw Rafa finding form in Australia it told me the French Open was in his pocket. Many congratulations Rafa for bouncing back from the brink of oblivion and refinding the champion's touch in a slam event. Arise ten times French Open winner - Rafa Nadal.

Incredible
the best hes played since the 08 demolition of Federer.

He made Stan Wawrinka, the biggest hitter on tour, play defensive the entire match.
He took him to bits

la decima... imo the greatest single achievement in tennis.
102-2. The greatest slam record ever.

The man derided as a dirt monkey... the complete performance. Noone else can play like that.

If grunting and time between points matters more to you than all that, then you are no fan of sport.

Hope you enjoy this Haddie, youve earned it honey.

Signing out.

Wow, simply wow. I thought the 2008 Nadal was the greatest player I'd seen on clay. But the 2017 version superseded not only 2008 but also 2010.

Third tIme Nadal has won Roland Garros without relinquishing a set. Scary great, could easily add another couple of Roland Garros' before he's done.

Congrats Rafa, amazing to get to 10th RG title. I expected it would be fairly straightforward, but not this one-sided. Stan never had a chance.

BS, how come you mixed up the first two sets in your score prediction?

temporary21 wrote:Incredible
the best hes played since the 08 demolition of Federer.

He made Stan Wawrinka, the biggest hitter on tour, play defensive the entire match.
He took him to bits

la decima... imo the greatest single achievement in tennis.
102-2. The greatest slam record ever.

The man derided as a dirt monkey... the complete performance. Noone else can play like that.

If grunting and time between points matters more to you than all that, then you are no fan of sport.

Hope you enjoy this Haddie, youve earned it honey.

Signing out.

Thanks temp

Well done - still don't like him at all as a player but it's undeniably a great sporting achievement.

I remember watching Sampras winning US Open 2002 to go to 14 out miles out on his own: who'd have thought that within fifteen years two players would have exceeded his slam tally, and a third only two behind?

summerblues wrote:Congrats Rafa, amazing to get to 10th RG title.  I expected it would be fairly straightforward, but not this one-sided.  Stan never had a chance.

BS, how come you mixed up the first two sets in your score prediction?

sb

Yes haddienuff your man has done it. Pleased for you. Get the bubbly out and enjoy Rafa standing at the top of tennis again. Supreme achievement by Rafael Nadal.

Thanks CC yes us fans are very proud of him

Born Slippy wrote:
Taking all that into account, I think it's going to be very one-sided tomorrow. I'm going for Rafa 6/3 6/2 6/1. He won't quite beat Borg's record of dropping 32 games in a slam but I think he will get close.

What's the lottery numbers this week?

Not a fan of Nadal and didn't watch the finals but by the sounds of it, this was an amazing performance. I'll check the highlights as soon as I can. Congrats to Nadal like someone said the best on this surface more so than anyone is on any surface. With the way the world is today and the way people are growing up, I doubt we'll see a player like this again for a while, if ever.

Another great final for Rafa. It has been incredible to see the consistency of his play over the past two weeks.

I sincerely hope the resurgence continues into Wimbledon! 6 years is far too long for him (a double champion) to have failed to get past the 4th round. With the depth/power and supreme confidence back, we know he can play to a high standard on the grass and it will make Wimbledon so much more interesting to have him involved deep into the 2nd week of the tournament