Welsh Heineken Cup Predictions

So the draw has been for the Heineken Cup and after last season’s disappointment for the Welsh regions what chance do any of the regions have of European glory next season? Very little I’m afraid. Here are my predictions on each regions chance in Europe.

Pool 1
Castres, Munster, Saints, Scarlets
I feel for the Scarlets as they have been drawn a really tough group to try and qualify from. Scarlets coach Nigel Davies has said they must win all their home games to stand a chance of qualifying. Sorry Nige but it’ll take more than that to get your boys out of this group. The Scarlets front five at this level is weak. It was exposed last year and it will be this year. Last couple of seasons they took a couple of heavy beatings from Leinster and Leicester and I fear that it’ll be more of the same against Munster and Saints.The Scarlets have zero chance of winning this group and apart from maybe Castres away I certainly don’t see them winning at Thomond Park or Franklin's Gardens. Qualifying for the Amlin Challenge cup would be a great achievement in this group. Winning the pool would be nothing short of a miracle. Shame when you consider the Scarlets used to be the flag bearers for Wales in Europe.

Predicted final pool standings
1, Munster 2. Saints 3. Scarlets 4. Castres

Pool 2
Blues, Edinburgh, L.Irish, Racing Metro

The Blues have been handed the most favourable draw out of the regions. On paper this looks like a group the Blues are more than capable of winning and couple a seasons ago that may have happened but things have changed since then. The Blues now have an aging squad and the likes of Rush, Tito, Filse and Molitika are yesterdays men yet the Blues will hope they rediscover their form if they are to stand a chance in this group. I notice a lot of people tip London Irish to win the pool but I think a few people have underestimated the threat of Metro. They have a strong solid pack and they will be tough to beat at home. They will look at this group and fancy their chances of making the quarter finals. London Irish have underachieved in this competition so I don’t see them winning the group and Edinburgh will offer little threat in the pool and the Blues certainly wont fear them after beating them 4 times last season. I feel the Blues will beat all these teams at home but will slip up at either Metro or the Madejski Stadium. I feel the Blues will miss on out qualification from the pool unless they turn things around quickly but with no new faces coming in I don’t see how the Blues can improve on last year.

Predicted final pool standings
1. Racing Metro 2. Blues 3. L.Irish 4. Edinburgh

Pool 5
Treviso, Biarritz, Ospreys, Saracens

So now we move onto the perennial underachievers Ospreys. They like the Scarlets have been handed a tough draw. Coach Scott Johnson is well aware of the task ahead saying that his team is in for a “real arm wrestle” Very true. I don’t support Ospreys but when they fail in this competition it makes angry with all the quality and talent they have, the fact they have not at least made a semi final is quite frankly pathetic. Expectations will be lower this time though as a host of star players, Hook, Bryne, Phillips Collins have left the region meaning a more inexperienced and weaker team to compete in Europe. Having said that what difference does it make if these players are there or not? They can’t compete when they did have their stars available so what chance do they have without them? Not much I’d say. Ospreys do have an excellent home record in this competition but will definitely struggle on the road. It’s a straight battle between English champions Saracens and Biarritz for 1st place.

Predicted final pool standings
1.Biarritz, 2. Saracens, 3. Ospreys 4. Treviso

Overall verdict
Out of the 3 Welsh regions Cardiff Blues have the best chance of making the knockout stages. The rest unfortunately will not make it out of their pools. It seems that the Amlin Challenge cup will be the best chance of Welsh success in Europe next season. Good luck to all our Welsh regions. They’ll need it.

Difficult to argue with much of your logic

The only prediction I think may be tighter than you suggest is the Blues finishing above London Irish. I'd tip Irish to edge the Blues. Strong counter-attacking back three next season at Irish (Armitage, Ojo and Thompstone), and on paper the Hape/Ansbro combination makes sense.

The Blues to me are a side in need of transition. You brought in Parks but did not think to change the game plan to suit him. As you note, some worthy elder statesmen in the Blues side, but the clock is certainly ticking on several of them. Bradley Davies and Sam Warburton are class acts, but I wonder how much a heavy World Cup schedule will take its toll on those guys. They are two extremely key players for Wales now, and will certainly start the key games. May well be jaded next season.