Wimbledon Day 9 (Wednesday)

Men's quarters today. The big surprise, of course, is that Rafa does not feature. A scan of all the Wimbledon posts/threads would probably reveal that most thought he would not only reach this stage but could well win the whole thing. All things pointed to another SW19 triumph for the Spaniard. He was fit, confident and in form. 
   Reckon Murray will get past Querrey but what about Rog? It will be tough against Raonic but I'm still to be convinced that the big Canadian moves that well on grass, despite his good Wimbledon record. I don't think either Murray or Fed have been that convincing so far, so both are due a stand-out performance.
   Asking a lot of Muller to follow up such a brilliant display against Rafa with a triumph over Cilic, while I think Djoko will beat Berdych.

I'd expect Murray to win perhaps in four sets and that would see him seal the No 1 spot for a few more weeks but don't see him winning his 3rd Wimbledon title. He is carrying too much baggage fitness and form-wise. As for Federer I'd take him to win in perhaps three or maybe four sets. Raonic has had a long route through to the QF's with lengthy matches and struggles, has had injury problems and isn't in the form he was last year. I see it being a case of after the Lord Mayor's show for Muller and see Cilic doing a clinical job on him and winning in straight sets perhaps 7-6 7-5 6-3. Djokovic should have too much for Berdych (he normally does) so would take him to win in three tight sets though if Berdych can stay strong he may make a match of it.

I think Querrey will be in positive mood, having shown that his good run to the QF's here last year was not a one-off or some sort of quirky happening. But overall Murray should have too much for him, even without a stellar performance.

Raonic v Federer is less predictable. Safe to say Raonic has long dispelled any theories that he lacks variety and doesn't have a game for grass - it's simply irrational to think this about anyone who has already made a Wimbledon Final. In his match v Zverev, Milos saved 14 out of 17 BP's ..... clear evidence that he's not easily broken. And Zverev himself did play well, with 17 aces of his own and 50 winners in all. Beating Zverev in a 5 set battle will have given Raonic added confidence to tackle Fed, who has lost their previous two meetings.

Normally I'd agree we could expect to see something of a negative fallout after the sort of surprise win that Muller had over Rafa. BUT ...... there were such a calmness about Muller throughout the match that I question how much it actually took out of him. He looked tired rather than drained at the end, and will be ready for another fight. That said, Cilic does have a better pedigree (albeit not remotely as good as Rafa's ....!!) and has looked very, very strong in his run to the quarters. So I will take Cilic in four.

Finally, the Djokovic v Berdych match is about the easiest to call on past evidence. A reasonably comfortable win for Djokovic, with Berdych (possibly) managing to stretch him to four sets.

Raonic Fed will be straights to Fed, unless Raonic pulls some better form out of nowhere
Cilic Muller will be straights to Marin. Mullers had a fab run but itll end here

Murray will win in 4 sets v Querrey I reckon, hes too good a returner

Djoko v Berd would be obvious if not for this arm injury, but ill still take Djoko in 4.

Given Murray and Noles injuries, the only legitimate threat to Federer now is Cilic. Though be in no doubt he is a proper serious threat

sirfredperry wrote:It will be tough against Raonic but I'm still to be convinced that the big Canadian moves that well on grass, despite his good Wimbledon record.

Are you ignoring what Twain thinks - Shania Twain impressed by Raonic ? 

Murray v Querrey - Difficult to look past Andy. I have long thought that he and Federer are the two best returners of the very big serves (Djokovic is better across the field, but seems to me to be slightly weaker against the giants), and generally he's just a better player than Querrey - a 7/10 Murray performance should be enough.

Raonic v Fed: Well, Milos won last year, but this year looks to be playing worse and Fed playing better, plus MR is coming off a 5 setter while Fed had little difficulty with Dimitrov. All the indicators point to Federer, although it would be no surprise for Raonic to pick up a set.

Cilic v Muller: An apparently very much in form Cilic against a Muller who must be physically and mentally jaded after the epic against Nadal. Recent grass court form had Cilic winning in 3 sets at Queens. Surprisingly though this was only their 2nd career meeting, with their first being in 2016 indoors and with Cilic winning in 2 tie break sets. Everything points to Cilic having a reasonably easy day.

Djokovic v Berdych: Until a year ago, a simple Djokovic victory (25-2 h2h must count for something). Now we have a Djokovic in uncertain although perhaps improving form and with some question marks over a sore shoulder, against a Berdych who also hasn't shown much form recently and is coming off a 5 set victory over Thiem. I think the result will tell us quite a bit about whether Novak has his head back in place. Interstingly, although the H2H is overwhelmingly in Djokovic's favour, Berdych won their one meeting on grass - the 2010 semi final here.

sirfredperry wrote:Men's quarters today. The big surprise, of course, is that Rafa does not feature. A scan of all the Wimbledon posts/threads would probably reveal that most thought he would not only reach this stage but could well win the whole thing. All things pointed to another SW19 triumph for the Spaniard. He was fit, confident and in form. 
   
.............................................................

Well I was indisputably in the Rafa "could win the whole thing" group. I had him as firm favourite - and the bookies too had him there after his early round showings. He was looking in better shape, and far more confident and enthused, than he has ever looked in week one.

I really was VERY surprised by his defeat. Once he was into the decider, with the momentum of having won the previous two sets, I was convinced he would come through. But it was not to be, and I'm struggling to think that Rafa will ever again be seen among the favourites at any future Wimbledon. He himself didn't even seem too sure that he would actually want to compete here again - although perhaps that was just a sign of his depressed mood in the immediate wake of a loss which he clearly was having difficulty in explaining.

Yes, Rafa did seem very low after his defeat. He probably reckoned this was his year for Wimbledon. Like some others I still though he would turn it round deep into that fifth set against Muller. But when the final two MPs came up I thought he couldn't keep on saving them and that this was the end.
   Does anyone think that against the big servers, Rafa - among the Big 4 - makes too few good returns, or am I being a little unfair? As far back as 08 at the AO Rafa was taken apart by a big-serving s-and-v performance by JWT and there have been a number of shock Wimbledon exits since. Would Murray, Djoko or Fed have found themselves two sets to love down against Muller?

sfp

With Rafa I don't think it's necessarily the big servers per se, but players that can take time away from him generally, especially on quicker courts. His dominance on clay comes from the fact that no-one can hit through him (other than an inspired Robin Soderling), whereas on the quicker surfaces the balance tilts slilghtly towards an aggressive opponent. Obviously, being a big server helps to either get some cheap points or to set up a dominant position in the rally, and I agree that relative to the very best Rafa is an inferior returner - not bad by any means, but at the elite level the margins between success and failure are slim.

It was still definitely a surprise that Muller pulled things round in the 5th, especially as it got so deep.

@ dummy half - in terms of Rafa's early showing here this year - and not least the fact that he was fully fit coming into the tourney - it really was a very surprising loss.

And yet ...... on the other hand, perhaps it doesn't deserve the same 'shock' headline as his previous early defeats. I say that because Muller is by far the most highly ranked (no. 26) of his series of recent Wimbledon conquerors, and Rafa did come back from two sets down.

Rafa's previous defeats could be considered far more of an upset - and it's an ongoing pattern that none of the other Big Four have come remotely close to suffering, either at Wimbledon or at ANY Slam.

Brown : ranked 102 (won in 4)
Rosol :  ranked 100 (won in 5)
Darcis : ranked 135 (won in 3)
Kyrgios: ranked 144 (won in 4)

Credit I think must go to Muller. He absolutely deserved that final set, and had almost all the chances

The match was all about his excellent play, Nadal played well but it was just one of those days.

Given Muller is now a break up on Cilic, the result certainly wasnt a a shock

Murray playing a lot better thus far today, coming into the net.
Slow 1st serve, but he is getting it in a lot

and Muller beats Cilic by a double break i the 1st set...

my my...

temporary21 wrote:and Muller beats Cilic by a double break i the 1st set...

my my...

But why the sense of surprise ......... ??

If he can take three sets from a multi-Wimbledon winner named Rafa Nadal, he can take sets from Cilic too.

Typical Murray - gets a set and a break up and looks totally in charge and just hands the break back. Frustrating.

Because of the comedown after such a match
and that i think cilic is playing better than Nadal

lags

I agree with your main point - certainly a loss to Muller on grass is not close to the same level of 'shock result' as say Rosol or Brown (my recollection is that Rafa was carrying an injury when he lost to Darcis, and subsequent performances have shown that Kyrgios is a LOT better than #144). Muller is a decent player and grass is probably his strongest surface.

It was something of a surprise result given Rafa's form on clay and on how he looked in the first three rounds - I thought if we were going to see 'poor on grass' Rafa, Khachanov would have made more impact, but that performance and result made it look like we had the Rafa that could be a serious threat. Wasn't to be.

Cilic with a worldie passing shot to take the second set

Murray two sets to one up but clearly all is not well with his game. From my point of view wrap up the win here and safeguard the No 1 slot and everything else at this Wimbledon will be a big bonus. He's missing shots he'd normally make in his sleep, taken a lot off his serve and just doesn't look comfortable in himself.

Yeah Murray just doesn't look quite right, could be the hip still. TBH it's much the way he's looked the whole year, just never quite comfortable on court.

His own fault to some extent though. He looked great in the second set and was in total control before switching off mentally and throwing the set away. Win that set and he is already off court now and not labouring around injured.

Murray basically giving up on a set. Not something you see very often. Looks horribly impaired out there, no idea why he hasn't called the trainer TBH.

His hip finally gave out
heck of an effort to make it to the quarters.
I believe he keeps the no 1 ranking unless Novak wins

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Murray basically giving up on a set. Not something you see very often. Looks horribly impaired out there, no idea why he hasn't called the trainer TBH.

Well as it is an injury he had going in I do believe he cannot get treatment on it.

temporary21 wrote:His hip finally gave out
heck of an effort to make it to the quarters.
I believe he keeps the no 1 ranking unless Novak wins

Agreed.

One to try to forget and move on. Take time out if necessary and give the hip chance to heal and hopefully regain full mobility and fitness. Well done to Sam though - his first slam semi.

No shame really.
He came in injured and has run his hip into submission.

Still makes the Quarters and probably keeps his ranking

temporary21 wrote:No shame really.
He came in injured and has run his hip into submission.

Still makes the Quarters and probably keeps his ranking

Agreed again but no doubt the brain dead will soon be out in force.

ofc ofc.
I do wonder, i was in twitch chat and similar sorts of behavior was going on. Turns out the person had Autism, and it was the only way he really communicated in his life.

Turns out its very common in internet chats, and it would explain a lot

Poor Murray, that looked painful

I'm not sure he's ever recovered from last year's exertions where he played an (at times) stupid amount of tennis. He's not getting any younger, and maybe his body could do with a rest. Might not be the worst thing for him to take some proper time out of the game and get it right again, didn't hurt Fed or Nadal.

Well
The only thing hes missed out on in his career would be an AO title

other than that, all that exertion means hes achieved almost everything he could ask for, a LOT more than I thought he would.

He deserved a proper break thats for sure

Well done Querrey. Saw his chance and took it. Played some good tennis as well. As BS says Murray could easily have won it in three if he didn't play a very poor service game at 4-3 up in the second set. Agree with those who say he should take some time out now to try and get properly fit.

Pretty the end of Andy Murray as a contender for the slams. He was always a level behind the likes of Djokovic, Nadal and Federer. With the latter refinding themselves in 2017, Murray's faint hopes of getting 5-6 majors are gone.

Well if Djoko can take the title he'll be back at number one. Long way to go but it could happen. Meanwhile, Cilic has been taken to a 5th set by marathon man Gilles Muller.
   So one of Querrey, Cilic or Muller will now make the final.

no way novak beats federer with a dodgy arm.
Be his best ever achivement if he did

Cilic 4-0 in the fifth

Can't believe Sam Querry is in the semi-finals! First new slam semi-finalist since Thiem at RG2016 and second since Nishikori at USO2014.

https://twitter.com/BenRothenberg/status/884887799463374848

Cilic looks to be joining him too.

temporary21 wrote:no way novak beats federer with a dodgy arm.
Be his best ever achivement if he did

Eh .... Rather OTT I'd say !!

First of all .... we have no definitive info at this point as to just how 'dodgy' Novak's arm actually is.

And can beating a 36 year old (in a couple of weeks) really rank as a "best ever achievement" by someone who has spent as long at Number One as Novak has.... ?? We're hardly taking about some one-off potential giant-killing act by a journeyman.

because age is a number.
Roger has too much pedigree to my mind

Well one match s a semblance of a competition

Surprised to see Federer up two sets in an hour.

hes as much a favourite now as Serena is at Wimbledon.
Noones even giving him a game

laverfan wrote:Surprised to see Federer up two sets in an hour.

He's handing out a tennis lesson to Raonic - I am not very surprised just on a comparison with a very close match last year.  Federer is fitter and more comfortable with his equipment and in better form, Raonic is in worse form and has not pressed on from what looked to be a relatively promising upturn last year.

Fed has always been a massively superior player, and it's showing.

laverfan wrote:Surprised to see Federer up two sets in an hour.

Really ?

Begs the question as to just how surprised you would have been to see Raonic up two sets in an hour ...

Federer has this in the bag, Novak has gone

only Cilic represents a danger now

Novak pulls out

temporary21 wrote:only Cilic represents a danger now

"only" Cilic?

I'd say he's a more substantial danger than that.

Berdych gets a chance at a slam I thought he would never get again.
I wonder if hell just throw his arm at it against Roger

Barry, the "only" references that I think hes the one (and only) player that might beat Roger.

If he can up his game from today I think hes got a more than fair chance of that

Cilic vs Querrey
Federer vs Berdych