Ireland are the form favourites for the 6Nations

With England's form bubble well and truly burst by the recent Euro match ups and their injury list resulting in a fracture to the squads integrity, it now has to be obvious that the better top down Irish organisation places them in pole position.
You're only as good as your last game and anyone who honestly analysed our win over Ozy knows much luck was expended that day, but realistically the game was considerably closer than score board suggested.
In the bigger picture the envelope of our current development has been reached and changes will result during and after this tournament. Hartley will fall as will others and our over reliance on forward domination above the ability to attack with pace and skill from deep and wide out. Brown will go and the backs will be challenged to deliver and lead our structure.
The dominance of Saracens has been the bell weather to this English revival and now, as is obvious to all, they like England are in transition to be able to progress and challenge further.
So the Irish will have this tournament, but if EJ knows his onions he'll allow bruised bodies to mend and will take an A/B squad away this summer and then start a fresh and beat the AB's in the autumn.

I'd still say that England are firm favourites and personally fancy them to take a grand slam. There is a question mark at 8 with us potentially missing our first 3 choices but other than that we look very well set for another good tournament.

I disagree with nearly every word of that.

Club form is not international form. The scoreline against Australia involved a bit of luck; the win did not. Eddie has already said that Hartley is his RWC Tournament Captain, and only a lengthy ban or long term injury is likely to change that. He has also said that he knows his 1st XV and most of his second string and is working on the third and fourths. Likewise, the consistency with which he has picked Brown suggests that he likes what he sees; it is not as if he hasn't had plenty of other options.

I don't think it's remotely a given that Ireland are favourites for the 6N. They don't have the depth to cope if they pick up a couple of key injuries, and they have to come to Twickenham, which has historically been as difficult a place for them to win as Dublin has been for England.

I do think that the squad that travels to South Africa will be a mix of A and B players, but because of injuries rather than resting players. The chance to give the squad the experience of winning another difficult tour and set them up to take the #1 spot if they beat the All Blacks (which I think is doable but I am less confident than kingelderfield seems to be) is not one I expect Eddie to pass up lightly.

"You're only as good as your last game and anyone who honestly analysed our win over Ozy knows much luck was expended that day, but realistically the game was considerably closer than score board suggested."

I don't agree with "you're only as good as your last game" as a sentiment, but in any case our last game was against Samoa.

I don't particularly expect a grand slam from England but I'm not too concerned either way. If there is going to be some churn in our starting 15 with players like Hartley, Cole and Brown coming under pressure then this is the right year for that to be happening.

In terms of the actual bookies odds...

England 1.8 (favourites)
Ireland 3.75
Scotland 10
Wales 10
France 11
Italy 1001

Also worth pointing out that EJ's standard England strategy seems to be to have a very confrontational team grinding the opposition down and taking any points on offer - and then to bring on the 'finishers' to up the tempo. What happened against Oz was that the finishers came on and Oz collapsed.

Points count the same any time they are scored. As for the Australian (non)scores, well you could say they were unlucky but not with the actual rulings. The actual way the game played out was very similar to the games in Oz.

Given the subsequent mauling by Scotland and now the latest drug scandal you have to wonder where the wallabies are at. We all know they can produce some very good players and teams but they have a lot of work to do. They also have some very good players unavailable (Fardy!) and I don't think Cheika is helping right now.

I`ve been missing for 8 weeks due to a computer crash and watched nearly all the matches concerned .
It is obvious under the current system matches can be lost or won on a Referees whim,a tmo`s decision.
What is plain that refs/tmos decisions have been inconsistent same offences getting,a red card,a yellow
card,just a penalty or nothing.
Ireland with Home advantage then they may well beat England but at Twickenham advantage must lie
with England injuries permitting.

I cannot see Ireland as favourites for the 6N myself. England are the favourites for me although I am not sure that they will get a GS.

Ireland, Wales and Scotland will fight it out for 2nd place with one of them getting the win against England to stop them winning the GS. I see very little between Ireland, Scotland and Wales except that Ireland may have the advantage of squad depth ahead of Wales. Scotland's squad depth may be the biggest issue for them.

France can be very good but I feel it may be too early for them to perform under Brunel.

Sadly, Italy will again be the team that grabs the wooden spoon.

eirebilly wrote:I cannot see Ireland as favourites for the 6N myself. England are the favourites for me although I am not sure that they will get a GS.

Ireland, Wales and Scotland will fight it out for 2nd place with one of them getting the win against England to stop them winning the GS. I see very little between Ireland, Scotland and Wales except that Ireland may have the advantage of squad depth ahead of Wales. Scotland's squad depth may be the biggest issue for them.

France can be very good but I feel it may be too early for them to perform under Brunel.

Sadly, Italy will again be the team that grabs the wooden spoon.

Not so sure about Italy getting the spoon. I wouldn't be surprised if they got a scalp as they are performing in fits and bursts, especially as France are an utter mess right now.

Wales always seem to pull something out of the bag for the 6Ns, they can have a dire autumn and tour but hold their own in that tournament - I just hope Scotland catch them cold in Cardiff. If we do I can see Scotland potentially challenging for the title, though I can't see us beating Ireland away from home. If our forwards aren't the walking wounded by the England match we can compete and potentially get a scalp at home though England would have to have an off day, which isn't out of the imagination.

In balance, I would say it's fair to put the favourites' tag on England to be honest, I don't think it'll be a Grandslam year. Ireland second and Scotland third. We have to remember BPs come into play too.

This being said I put a tenner on Scotland to win it at 16/1 so I wouldn't trust my judgment for a second!

Same as last year, I have it down to home advantage being the edge between Ireland and England, so have to go with England this year.

The biggest question mark for me is the trip to Murrayfield....I think Scotland are going to be very hard to beat at home.

mid_gen wrote:Same as last year, I have it down to home advantage being the edge between Ireland and England, so have to go with England this year.

The biggest question mark for me is the trip to Murrayfield....I think Scotland are going to be very hard to beat at home.

I wouldn't worry about us, we're systematically destroying all our props, by the time the 6 nations roll round we'll be playing a bunch of teenagers, and anyone who's brought their boots to the stadium.

EWT Spoons wrote:

mid_gen wrote:Same as last year, I have it down to home advantage being the edge between Ireland and England, so have to go with England this year.

The biggest question mark for me is the trip to Murrayfield....I think Scotland are going to be very hard to beat at home.

I wouldn't worry about us, we're systematically destroying all our props, by the time the 6 nations roll round we'll be playing a bunch of teenagers, and anyone who's brought their boots to the stadium.

This is what worries me about Scotland, the squad depth. They are a very good side but a few injuries and they will struggle. Still think that they will be in the fight for second though.

Scotlands squad depth is much better than it used to be. However we have used up all our props already!

England favourites, Ireland to push them hard, Scotland 3rd, No grand slam

England are definitely favorites. All their important games are at home in GB.

Ireland are still in development stage with a lot of young, largely untested players to be fielded during the Championship - they should beat France and Italy, but the GB teams will probably be a step too far. It will be good experience for Keatley, Farrell, Aki, Leavy, McGrath, Carbery, Jas Ryan, Stockdale, Scannell, Conan to prepare them for the Australian tour and the November games against NZ.

For me, really hard to identify a particular best team going into the tournament. Seems like England, Ireland, and Scotland (barring any injury due to their lack of depth) could win this one. France and Wales seem a bit off the pace for this year.

The All Blacks have seen directly how good Scotland and Ireland can be. England have a fight in front of them to repeat.

Ireland looking sharp for sure but I'd still have England as the favourites and they're also motivated in the fact that if they win again this year they will be the first team to win the 6N 3 times in a row and bring their 6N tally up to 7 wins putting them 2 ahead of France who have on the tournament 5 times.

Personally I think it will be a tussle between England, Ireland and Scotland with France being the dark horse this year. Wales have injury issues and I also feel they're in a period of altering their style of play. Italy I can't see winning a match but if I had to pick one they could win it would be Scotland at home and it will also be there last match/chance to pick up a win.

Wales will surely be much improved by the time the six nations comes around and the Scarlets are still one of the form teams of the pro 12 and still in the mix in Europe. Their November form is usually meaningless when the 6N comes round.

On England greatness awaits if they do win the 6N as no team has ever won it three years in a row. I think they have a chance but I wouldn't be surprised if they lose to Wales.

Scotland are definitely a challenger but a smaller squad will make it hard for them to get over the line. 3rd is my guess.

Ireland should challenge. If they beat France away in the 1st game I fancy them to win the next three home games v Italy, Wales and Sotland and take it to a final St Pats day showdown in London which they would absolutely relish.

Overall form in November isn't going to be the most reliable predictor as for example Ireland faced quite weak opposition and Wales are traditionally weak in November but not necessarily in the 6N.

Collapse2005 wrote:Wales will surely be much improved by the time the six nations comes around and the Scarlets are still one of the form teams of the pro 12 and still in the mix in Europe. Their November form is usually meaningless when the 6N comes round.

On England greatness awaits if they do win the 6N as no team has ever won it three years in a row. I think they have a chance but I wouldn't be surprised if they lose to Wales.

Scotland are definitely a challenger but a smaller squad will make it hard for them to get over the line. 3rd is my guess.

Ireland should challenge. If they beat France away in the 1st game I fancy them to win the next three home games v Italy, Wales and Sotland and take it to a final St Pats day showdown in London which they would absolutely relish.

Overall form in November isn't going to be the most reliable predictor as for example Ireland faced quite weak opposition and Wales are traditionally weak in November but not necessarily in the 6N.

Nothing is impossible but at the current time Wales winning at Twickenham would be a huge upset. Injuries will affect all teams, and there will be scares along the way but I am not worried about any of the home games (well maybe Ireland but they are much tougher on their own patch) and the away games are Italy France and Scotland.

Italy will probably be boring as hell and we'll have loads of negative press afterwards. France is a basket case and I don't think they can turn things around fast enough, and that leaves Scotland, a team showing massive improvements but one that is more vulnerable to injuries than most and one we absolutely humbled last year.

We should win, quite possibly with a slam, but it is the 6N and anything can and does happen.

You have Ireland away this year. No?

The England/Ireland game is at HQ.

Cyril wrote:The England/Ireland game is at HQ.

Ireland have 4 wins 6 losses in their last 10 6N games in Twickers. Only SA and NZ have better records in England in recent years.

If its for a championship Ireland will relish it.

Last win was 2010 so pretty meaningless to go back that far. As above its the 6ns all teams are capable of beating each other but no ireland recent record if looking only at results isn't good.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Last win was 2010 so pretty meaningless to go back that far. As above its the 6ns all teams are capable of beating each other but no ireland recent record if looking only at results isn't good.

Maybe but excluding the 2012 test when Ireland got slaughtered in the scums most games have actually been pretty close.

Ireland still well capable of raising their performance for a one off game. Toughest game I think but at least it's at home this time.

I agree which is why even looking at results will only tell you so much let alone picking out the last 10 at Twickenham.

I think if we're honest then we would accept that our 2017 form and performances were not as good as 2016, and that our 2017 RESULTS have led many to have an artificial appreciation of where we're at.
Intrinsic to this has been the number of injuries and fatigue we have had to suffer, as well as the fact that the game has evolved from 2016 with the Law changes still to be fully realised and with the southern hemisphere implementation undoubtedly carrying the most weight in the games immediate development. Surely it is now obvious that possession is the dominant factor and kicking will continue to diminish as a strategic weapon.
Pressure will now come to bare and real results will be the order of 2018.

Not really. England are one of the very best at present.

kingelderfield wrote:I think if we're honest then we would accept that our 2017 form and performances were not as good as 2016, and that our 2017 RESULTS have led many to have an artificial appreciation of where we're at.
Intrinsic to this has been the number of injuries and fatigue we have had to suffer, as well as the fact that the game has evolved from 2016 with the Law changes still to be fully realised and with the southern hemisphere implementation undoubtedly carrying the most weight in the games immediate development. Surely it is now obvious that possession is the dominant factor and kicking will continue to diminish as a strategic weapon.
Pressure will now come to bare and real results will be the order of 2018.

bare pressure, so much more fun than bear pressure

kingelderfield wrote:I think if we're honest then we would accept that our 2017 form and performances were not as good as 2016, and that our 2017 RESULTS have led many to have an artificial appreciation of where we're at.
Intrinsic to this has been the number of injuries and fatigue we have had to suffer, as well as the fact that the game has evolved from 2016 with the Law changes still to be fully realised and with the southern hemisphere implementation undoubtedly carrying the most weight in the games immediate development. Surely it is now obvious that possession is the dominant factor and kicking will continue to diminish as a strategic weapon.
Pressure will now come to bare and real results will be the order of 2018.

I'm happy. I don't think there's a big difference in terms of 2016 vs 2017. The six nations in 2016 weren't exactly vintage performances. If anything we are more clinical now. We've managed to be better than our opposition in 22/23 matches, that'll do nicely. As you say we've also done this against a backdrop of injuries and Lions fatigue, testing our squad depth. So again, that's a good thing.

As for your comment about possession, I believe it is the case that NZ media coverage doesn't even display those stats, such is their take on how important they are. I believe they favour stats like line breaks, as a more reliable KPI. Regardless of that though, I'm genuinely interested as to what you've based that assumption on?

England possession against SH opposition in 2017

ARG 39
ARG 42
ARG 37
AUS 43
SAM 56

Who cares what the NZ media say. They are desperately biased.

That said of course winning is the main stat that counts.

With a defence like England's, possession isn't a game changing stat. 51% when destroying Scotland, 43% and conceding 6 points vs Australia, only 56% vs Samoa and I doubt anyone thinks that was close.

Scottrf wrote:With a defence like England's, possession isn't a game changing stat. 51% when destroying Scotland, 43% and conceding 6 points vs Australia, only 56% vs Samoa and I doubt anyone thinks that was close.

Something else that is worth banging on about (especially in the Oz games) is that when we do move the ball and manage not to knock on/ fwd pass etc the moves go very fast. We just don't do the ball going from side to side thing holding on to the ball for ages very much (and when we do it can go badly). I think it is one of the reasons why we are considered to be more forward dominated with poor backs when in reality (at the moment!) we score a lot of tries and most of those are through the backs.

I think England's backs have progressed significantly under Lancaster and Jones. The back line for approx. 10 years prior was a shambles. It is pretty good now. Good mix of forward and back play.

lostinwales wrote:

Scottrf wrote:With a defence like England's, possession isn't a game changing stat. 51% when destroying Scotland, 43% and conceding 6 points vs Australia, only 56% vs Samoa and I doubt anyone thinks that was close.

Something else that is worth banging on about (especially in the Oz games) is that when we do move the ball and manage not to knock on/ fwd pass etc the moves go very fast. We just don't do the ball going from side to side thing holding on to the ball for ages very much (and when we do it can go badly). I think it is one of the reasons why we are considered to be more forward dominated with poor backs when in reality (at the moment!) we score a lot of tries and most of those are through the backs.

Good point. Seems to be a shift in mindset from Lancaster.

If it's not on, don't force it. Kick it away and don't be scared of letting the opponents come to you. Let them make the mistake. It does mean you have to take your chances when they arise though and to date we've been very good at that. For me, it's not always pretty but it's very impressive.

The most impressive thing about England under Eddie is that they have shown that they can win playing in several different styles, and they can change it up during the course of a game, especially when the bench come on.

That makes them very hard to beat because you can't prepare for the style of play they will bring, and very hard to defend against late in the game when legs and brains are tiring and the team start playing a very different game.

For instance, Danny Care will probably always be on the bench because his skill set works best in the late stages when there are cracks for him to exploit with his running and short kicks. But what a nightmare to defend against.

For me, the big difference between England in 2016 and 2017, and the reason we struggled in the 6 Nations, was not having the optimal back 5 of the pack. No Kruis, Robshaw or Haskell, and Itoje out of position, weakened both the setpieces and the breakdown.

This season, Kruis has lost form, but we should be able to field something like Lawes, Itoje, Robshaw, Haskell (or Underhill) and Billy, and that should make for a more balanced pack. England should be much harder to beat as a result.

For me, the toughest game is probably Scotland at Murrayfield, assuming they don't have an injury crisis.

Given the fixtures, Ireland have a great chance for the tournament, as I can't see them losing any Dublin game. In Paris first up, is the usual anyone's guess with a massive french pack being competitive but potentially running out of steam second half and Sexton's territorial kicking and general experience winning out.
England also have a favourable fixture list despite three away games and being at home for the final match is a pleasant change with the bench continuing to play an important role. EJ's tactics clearly being to target the 13 channel where Wales, Scotland & Ireland look suspect defensively.
Wales have lost their two best players in Faletau & Davies and look vulnerable at TH too with only the Yorkshireman Francis available. Bigger simply does not create enough chances for a welsh attacking approach.
Scotland ironically given the huge improvement in their attacking play, is that their forwards are very fit but lacking, Barclay aside, any hard edge to knock back opponents and offer minimal set piece threat. Their front row resources look very thin to me and will rely on luck to get through the tournament.

England, Ireland, Scotland, France, Wales & Italy for me but am I likely to put money on it ? - probably not.

Ireland won't change too much.  If they do, it'll be a seismic tournament for us and the team.  By that I mean that I don't see Ireland suddenly finding a run of cruel and relentless form that will take them fully through the entire series of games.  
Ireland International just don't seem to ever get that rhythm going that becomes an unstoppable force.  So Ireland, despite any one off performance(s), WILL give a good side an opportunity to beat them.  And the sides that are good going on recent form (England of course/Scotland and on a good day, Wales) will take their chances against Ireland if Ireland play their usual tournament.
We could even be taken early by France.  We're still so on/off that truly anything could happen.

England - on the other hand - they just kinda churn on, even when not particularly playing well for them.  They won't get turned over badly by anyone so any side that does end up beating them..., well, it'll be a tough game to accomplish it.  The ball is still in their court this season.  Most consistently high in 'High' standards.

Ireland are finding a rich crop of diamond players at Provincial/club level, but they'd need a sea change in Irish tactics to become the weapons they have the potential to be playing a different version of rugby.  I don't see that happening this season.  More defence marathons coming for long periods in a lot of the games.

I very much doubt that scotlands 13 channel will be so weak this year. Organisational flaw in the scots game the english exploited last year. toonie will have found a counter.

I don't think there's any point putting quasi-objective statements like this out until after the first two rounds.
England are of course the favourites, as they should be every year, simply because if their first player gets injured then the gap to the second in every position is shorter then every other team and the gap to third is similar. Simply put they are the form team and they have the most depth.

Ireland have the second best chance, they have also the second best depth (arguably France have better but are also a perennial dogs dinner of a rugby nations, the idea of France producing 5 Tier one wins is ludicrous). But if Sexton or Murray gets injured then they are up Poopie creek like the rest of us. Scotland are in the same boat with Finn Russell, and are also one more tighthead injury away from disaster quite frankly. Wales are out of form, Italy are horrendous, and France managed to draw to Japan.

TJ wrote:I very much doubt that scotlands 13 channel will be so weak this year.  Organisational flaw in the scots game the english exploited last year.  toonie will have found a counter.

It would be funny if we score another hatful down that channel though

Pot Hale wrote:England are definitely favorites.  All their important games are at home in GB.

Ireland are still in development stage with a lot of young, largely untested players to be fielded during the Championship - they should beat France and Italy, but the GB teams will probably be a step too far.   It will be good experience for Keatley, Farrell, Aki, Leavy, McGrath, Carbery, Jas Ryan, Stockdale, Scannell, Conan to prepare them for the Australian tour and the November games against NZ.  

Eh? you think Ireland will lose at home to Wales and Scotland? Cant see it happening.

Ireland will not field overly inexperienced sides. Schmidt has a process for introducing young players with few exceptions. Players are rarely parachuted into the team under Schmidt. Its not his policy. They are involved in various camps prior to, extended squads, prior to sitting on the bench in match day squads, prior to being introduced into the side. Furthermore there are rarely more than a few new caps in any one squad which is the sensible approach.

He has addressed this process in interviews in the past and referenced players being thrown into the mix too early and ruining their career in previous roles.

Just saw where Wayne Smith is recovering from a prostrate cancer operation (seems to be all clear), but when asked what he was going to do next, he said he is going to do a bit of coaching with the Italian coaches (as well as similar stuff with one of the Japanese club teams).

Conor O'Shea looks to be doing great stuff for them.

Sin é wrote:

Conor O'Shea looks to be doing great stuff for them.

7-33  
10-63
36-15
18-40
29-0
13-34
22-19
40-27
19-10
15-31
6-35

One win in 2017?

I think he's still working hard and hoping the ship stops sinking.

Even by Italy’s awful history, O’Shea has been appalling. They must be desperate not to have sacked him by now. They are going backwards at a rate of knots.

I think this is going to be an interesting 6n.

Ireland and England look ahead, with Ireland (imo) slightly ahead. But England's injury list seems to be starting to reduce. Do they have enough time to get match fit.

The thing is though...Scotland look a genuinely good side, and I would not be in the least bit surprised if they beat England or Ireland. So they come into contention. They just need to fix their current front row crisis.

Wales...well they'll probably a grey area at the moment as no one knows which wales will turn up.

France...Who knows.
Italy.. not looking great.

GeordieFalcon wrote:I think this is going to be an interesting 6n.

Ireland and England look ahead, with Ireland (imo) slightly ahead. But England's injury list seems to be starting to reduce. Do they have enough time to get match fit.

The thing is though...Scotland look a genuinely good side, and I would not be in the least bit surprised if they beat England or Ireland. So they come into contention. They just need to fix their current front row crisis.

Wales...well they'll probably a grey area at the moment as no one knows which wales will turn up.

France...Who knows.
Italy.. not looking great.  

Wales will challenge IMO. They always turn it on for the 6N.

I havent a clue what France will do. Brunel beat France with Italy when he was their coach so I reckon he will be a big improvement on Noves but probably needs time.

Wales are away vs Ireland and England. They really need to beat Scotland and have them first game so wont benefit from a Scottish lack of depth too much.

Over the last couple of years only 2 teams have beaten the AB's and one England. The common factor is of course Ireland.

However they are not (yet) consistent, hence their place in the world rankings below the top two teams. I'd be very concerned playing them for a GS in Ireland but it is going to be at Twickenham instead.

Injuries will of course add in yet more uncertainty but a win for Ireland at Twickenham will involve a monumental effort.

Playing a resurgent Scotland at Murrayfield will also be a huge challenge but both these games are winnable.

Maybe England only beat Scotland 51-21 this time.

Scottrf wrote:Maybe England only beat Scotland 51-21 this time.

To be honest England are a team design to strangle the life out of the Scotland attack and destroy them on the counter. I'd expect some hairy moments and it will be tough to hold Scotland out all game but overall a comfortable win.