Ireland are the form favourites for the 6Nations

First topic message reminder :

With England's form bubble well and truly burst by the recent Euro match ups and their injury list resulting in a fracture to the squads integrity, it now has to be obvious that the better top down Irish organisation places them in pole position.
You're only as good as your last game and anyone who honestly analysed our win over Ozy knows much luck was expended that day, but realistically the game was considerably closer than score board suggested.
In the bigger picture the envelope of our current development has been reached and changes will result during and after this tournament. Hartley will fall as will others and our over reliance on forward domination above the ability to attack with pace and skill from deep and wide out. Brown will go and the backs will be challenged to deliver and lead our structure.
The dominance of Saracens has been the bell weather to this English revival and now, as is obvious to all, they like England are in transition to be able to progress and challenge further.
So the Irish will have this tournament, but if EJ knows his onions he'll allow bruised bodies to mend and will take an A/B squad away this summer and then start a fresh and beat the AB's in the autumn.

carpet baboon wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

Scottrf wrote:Yep, definitely the ref's fault if Ireland don't win the Championship.

No just Barnes.

No if Scotland beat us it's because they were better than us.
Any issues with Barnes are our issues. If we can't adapt to his reffing style after all this time, then we get what we deserve

Well we clearly cant if we have 4 wins from 14 including two losses from 2 against Scotland. Are you worried?

Collapse2005 wrote:

carpet baboon wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

Scottrf wrote:Yep, definitely the ref's fault if Ireland don't win the Championship.

No just Barnes.

No if Scotland beat us it's because they were better than us.
Any issues with Barnes are our issues. If we can't adapt to his reffing style after all this time, then we get what we deserve

Well we clearly cant if we have 4 wins from 14 including two losses from 2 against Scotland. Are you worried?

Why are you losing while giving away fewer penalties? Do you need less than half the penalties of the opposition to win?

carpet baboon wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:When the championship is down to a shoot out between Ireland and England (and 3rd favorite Scotland) should an English referee really be reffing the Ireland Scotland game?

Doesnt seem right to me. Later stages should be reffed by antipodeans IMO.

Guns he's a professional ref.
Your starting to sound like those crazy folk on the pro14 forums who think all refs are working for the IRFU

It doesn't matter if he is professional. All humans are prone to bias, inherent, subconscious and conscious it doesn't really matter which.

As I said if we can't adapt to his reffing then we don't deserve to win.
The ref is the sole arbiter of fact during the game.
By the laws of rugby union all his decision during the game are right.
We know he likes a clean tidy breakdown so we give him clean tidy breakdown.
If we can't it's on us

Thank God both Scotland and Ireland seem to love dirty breakdowns. He'll be after both of us............... equally...................hopefully.................
Final 10 minutes, 36-36, only two men left on the field (the rest have been red carded for repeat offending) - it's Hogg against Toner!

Farewell and adieu.........

carpet baboon wrote:As I said if we can't adapt to his reffing then we don't deserve to win.
The ref is the sole arbiter of fact during the game.
By the laws of rugby union all his decision during the game are right.
We know he likes a clean tidy breakdown so we give him clean tidy breakdown.
If we can't it's on us

Why should you have to adapt to a biased ref?

At this level of professional sport a level playing field should be the least you would expect.

I think the trends indicate at the very least a suspicion of bias.

The laws maybe by and large right but his application of them tends to be inconsistent or more lenient on one side than the other in my view. That view is supported by the penalty and cards trends for all Ireland games he refs.

So are you saying that Barnes is a cheat???

And he isn't biased. It's his interpretation, so yes we do have to adapt to it or we ain't as clever as we think

secretfly wrote:Hogg against Toner!

Hogg would be one of the first sent off for Scotland, he's a feisty one!

I'll give you Toner though.

carpet baboon wrote:So are you saying that Barnes is a cheat???

And he isn't biased. It's his interpretation, so yes we do have to adapt to it or we ain't as clever as we think

If he's not, I'll happily say it.

SecretFly wrote:

beshocked wrote:England smashing France is unlikely. England realistically need a try bonus point vs France and a big win and hope Ireland get no bonus point themselves to give themselves a shot going into the last round.

I think if Scotland win in Dublin it will be the biggest upset of the championship but it's an opportunity for Scotland to win their first 6 nations title.

So was the idea of Scotland smashing England.  
So was the idea of Wales smashing Scotland.  

It happens shocked.  And if England don't have a target to reach in France and don't have the ability to chase after it then yes, they are in serious difficulty on this WC run-in.  I think they'll try to get back on board in an impressive way.  I'm not saying it'll work.  But they do have to prove they are 2nd in the world now.  I think Eddie Jones will have the determination to try.

A 12 point margin is not smashing someone. Scotland didn't even secure the try bonus which could be crucial. 15 + is because it's more than 2 converted tries.

Every team has to prove themselves in every game. If you lose focus you are potentially vulnerable.

England are in trouble only if they don't learn from their defeats and make necessary adjustments.

Every team has aspects to improve. Not just England.

Scotland for example have to show the same fight and intensity away from home as at Murrayfield. Especially with a RWC coming up in Japan where Scotland won't be able to play at Murrayfield.

Ireland have to prove they are better than England by beating them at Twickenham.

In fairness Beshocked, England are the side who have openly targeted the world no 1 spot so I do think they are the ones with most to prove.

I would say there are real question marks about them for the first time since Jones took over.

12 points against high ranking sides is 'smashing' someone, shocked.  We'll just agree to disagree on that one.

As regards Ireland and England at Twickenham.... there you go - you agree with me about favouritism all along.  It means zilch.  If Ireland 'smash' Scotland and England only get past France by a slim margin or indeed lose, for you, Ireland will still have to Prove they are better than England by beating them in Twickenham.  
To tell the truth I think the only way to fully prove these things is when the meetings take place in Neutral venues.  That's proof.

But favouritism - means nothing.  Games and results are what matters.

Also Scotland were at home. So no I wouldn't call 12 points a smashing in any context.

Scotland smashed England in the first 40 - that would be a fair statement. 3 tries to 0 - 22-6 but Scotland didn't maintain that level.

Scotland even lost the 2nd half.

Secretfly but if Ireland win at Twickenham you are winning away from home.

rodders so Ireland have no aspiration to be no 1? Every side has pressure to perform.

There's always been question marks over certain English decisions - it's just the Scotland game hammered this home.

England have won games without impressing particularly.

I agree with Beshocked...it wasn't a smashing. We got taught a lesson at the breakdown.

Ireland could be a whole different prospect though. I expect us to get beat quite comfortably.

beshocked wrote:Also Scotland were at home. So no I wouldn't call 12 points a smashing in any context.

Scotland smashed England in the first 40 - that would be a fair statement. 3 tries to 0 - 22-6 but Scotland didn't maintain that level.

Scotland even lost the 2nd half.

Secretfly but if Ireland win at Twickenham you are winning away from home.

rodders so Ireland have no aspiration to be no 1? Every side has pressure to perform.

There's always been question marks over certain English decisions - it's just the Scotland game hammered this home.

England have won games without impressing particularly.

I'm saying is us not winning in Twickenham (away) a sign that we are not as good as England? I'm not sure you'd use the same reasoning for that Scotland v England game.

So I'd say it probably takes more than one meeting to decide these 'better side' issues but then if we did win in Twickenham, that would be 2 victories in succession. I wonder would the English media and fans say we were a better side then? I think they are a gracious enough people to say it - but then there will also be a host of issues throughout the game that would allow them to say 'but ifs'..................... and don't we all do our 'but ifs'..........

Anyway, I'm not claiming any advance knowledge of how the game in England will go - it don't matter what I think anyway. Favouritism is an okay debating topic but it's a pointless exercise.... as the weekend taught us.

carpet baboon wrote:So are you saying that Barnes is a cheat???

And he isn't biased. It's his interpretation, so yes we do have to adapt to it or we ain't as clever as we think

Not necessarily Carpet, thought I think Dylan Hartley once did. You don't have to be a cheat to be inherently or subconsciously biased. My thoughts are he is can be quite an emotional referee and I think he does show bias towards England and Wales.

I also think its poor governance to have the same ref who grew up in Wales ref the Ireland v Wales fixture almost every year and it also doesn't sit right to have a English ref in the penultimate Ireland game as we are vying with England for the title. Its not unreasonable to suspect that an Englishman from the England Wales border who went to school in Wales might be biased to those sides.

Until you watch him. Excellent ref. You make an interesting point on using refs from the sh, Japan etc though. Bit of an expense for wr to ship refs other side of the world for comps all the time though. Don't know how r he refs would.feel either if they were overseas for larger parts of the year.

I watch a fair bit of the English league so see him ref quite a bit.
He's very particular in what he wants, but his communication I think is excellent, if we don't listen to him it's our fault

carpet baboon wrote:I watch a fair bit of the English league so see him ref quite a bit.
He's very particular in what he wants, but his communication I think is excellent, if we don't listen to him it's our fault

So you think our 9 losses in 14 games against the likes of Italy, Wales and Scotland etc. not listening to him and adapting was a significant factor in those loses? It seems unlikely when Ireland are generally very professional and disciplined.

How does that explain our much less volatile win loss ratios with all other refs? Is it simply a case that we don't need to adapt to all other refs as much?

All the other refs are cheats...it's simple. Jackson 'cheated' didn't he? And he was 'neutral'.

Collapse2005 wrote:

carpet baboon wrote:I watch a fair bit of the English league so see him ref quite a bit.
He's very particular in what he wants, but his communication I think is excellent, if we don't listen to him it's our fault

So you think our 9 losses in 14 games against the likes of Italy, Wales and Scotland etc. not listening to him and adapting was a significant factor in those loses? It seems unlikely when Ireland are generally very professional and disciplined.

How does that explain our much less volatile win loss ratios with all other refs? Is it simply a case that we don't need to adapt to all other refs as much?

To quote your pals on the match thread, this sounds like 'cry baby tantrums'! But we've been here before.

The Oracle wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

carpet baboon wrote:I watch a fair bit of the English league so see him ref quite a bit.
He's very particular in what he wants, but his communication I think is excellent, if we don't listen to him it's our fault

So you think our 9 losses in 14 games against the likes of Italy, Wales and Scotland etc. not listening to him and adapting was a significant factor in those loses? It seems unlikely when Ireland are generally very professional and disciplined.

How does that explain our much less volatile win loss ratios with all other refs? Is it simply a case that we don't need to adapt to all other refs as much?

To quote your pals on the match thread, this sounds like 'cry baby tantrums'!  But we've been here before.  

That response to the discussion is much more emotional than anything I have said which has mainly been based around numbers and trends.

It's why you can't understand rugby through stats alone.

No 7&1/2 wrote:It's why you can't understand rugby through stats alone.

I know. Now some people are suggesting try bonus points should be worth more than a win...

It's a weird new world.........

No 7&1/2 wrote:It's why you can't understand rugby through stats alone.

Exactly.
"Correlation does not causation make." To quote a much cleverer man than i

To be honest I think Wayne Barnes has reffed Ireland well in general. Ireland have squandered opportunities in games he has reffed.

Last year Ireland only gave away 4 penalties to Wales 10 yet supposedly Barnes was the reason, Ireland lost....

beshocked wrote:To be honest I think Wayne Barnes has reffed Ireland well in general. Ireland have squandered opportunities in games he has reffed.

Last year Ireland only gave away 4 penalties to Wales 10 yet supposedly Barnes was the reason, Ireland lost....

nah, that would have been the yellow card for our most important player.

No 7&1/2 wrote:It's why you can't understand rugby through stats alone.

Oh right, should we just close down the forum then and pack up our opinions?

As with all theories the more believable ones are those backed up with some sort of reasonable and logical analysis, that's generally all you can hope to achieve because there is no such thing as definitive proof of anything so your statement is fairly meaningless in the context of a rugby forum chat.

As part of my job I analysis financial data to identify suspicious trends and report them to the regulator. Anything that is high stakes should have some sort of monitoring process to ensure that everything is above board. Refereeing should be no different because we all know that cheating, incompetence, bias etc. exists in sport and it exists everywhere where the stakes are high in particular. World rugby has a review process but I doubt it is very sophisticated.

I'm not saying rugby is anything like the finance world but I believe there are enough red flags and anomalies in Barnes' performances over the years to merit a review. Secondly, I think that rugby refereeing governance at the highest level could be better in terms of ensuring that in particular inherent and unconscious bias is not a factor at all.

Just as a stat...and when Guns is on his favourite topic. Is there a record of how many cards Ireland have taken under Wayne? And what colours? I'm thinking it might be a language barrier that creates the confusion between him and us.

SecretFly wrote:Just as a stat...and when Guns is on his favourite topic.  Is there a record of how many cards Ireland have taken under Wayne?  And what colours?  I'm thinking it might be a language barrier that creates the confusion between him and us.

Less than your opposition

Well for instance someone under a different username pointed to a wales ireland game barnes reffed and complained over the amount of pens given against Ireland in a period of the game. That ignored the wider stats that ireland were given 3 advantages on the trot which werent in the pen stats and resulted in a Welsh sin bin. Looking at the pen stats though proved his or her point. Yet it wasn't a true reflection. Hence you can't understand.it purely from stats especially cherry picked ones.

beshocked wrote:To be honest I think Wayne Barnes has reffed Ireland well in general. Ireland have squandered opportunities in games he has reffed.

Last year Ireland only gave away 4 penalties to Wales 10 yet supposedly Barnes was the reason, Ireland lost....

Be honest, how many Ireland games have you seen that Barnes has reffed? Here is the list:

Ireland won 14 10 v Georgia Bordeaux 15-Sep-07

Ireland lost 12 16 v Wales Croke Park 08-Mar-08

Ireland won 17 15 v Wales Millennium Stadium 21-Mar-09

Ireland lost 10 33 v France Stade de France 13-Feb-10

Ireland lost 28 66 v New Zealand New Plymouth 12-Jun-10

Ireland lost 6 10 v Scotland Murrayfield 06-Aug-11

Ireland lost 21 23 v Wales Lansdowne Road 05-Feb-12

Ireland lost 12 16 v South Africa Lansdowne Road 10-Nov-12

Ireland lost 15 22 v Italy Rome 16-Mar-13

Ireland won 26 3 v Wales Lansdowne Road 08-Feb-14

Ireland won 18 11 v France Lansdowne Road 14-Feb-15

Ireland lost 16 23 v Wales Millennium Stadium 14-Mar-15

Ireland lost 9 22 v Wales Millennium Stadium 10-Mar-17

SecretFly wrote:

beshocked wrote:To be honest I think Wayne Barnes has reffed Ireland well in general. Ireland have squandered opportunities in games he has reffed.

Last year Ireland only gave away 4 penalties to Wales 10 yet supposedly Barnes was the reason, Ireland lost....

nah, that would have been the yellow card for our most important player.

Yellow card was well deserved for cynically killing the ball near the line.  You can say Sexton was unlucky but but technically was the correct decision.

Swings and roundabouts - Sexton was play acting vs Scotland in 2016 and milked YC for the opposition.

collapse probably not as much you but I saw the one last year, the loss to Scotland, the one in 2015. I don't remember every game, probably others.

SecretFly wrote:Just as a stat...and when Guns is on his favourite topic.  Is there a record of how many cards Ireland have taken under Wayne?  And what colours?  I'm thinking it might be a language barrier that creates the confusion between him and us.

9 yellows and 1 red in 14 games. Well above our average.

Scottrf wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Just as a stat...and when Guns is on his favourite topic.  Is there a record of how many cards Ireland have taken under Wayne?  And what colours?  I'm thinking it might be a language barrier that creates the confusion between him and us.

Less than your opposition

Oh you have the stats! Goodie. Give 'em to me. I love stats!

beshocked wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

beshocked wrote:To be honest I think Wayne Barnes has reffed Ireland well in general. Ireland have squandered opportunities in games he has reffed.

Last year Ireland only gave away 4 penalties to Wales 10 yet supposedly Barnes was the reason, Ireland lost....

nah, that would have been the yellow card for our most important player.

Yellow card was well deserved for cynically killing the ball near the line.  You can say Sexton was unlucky but but technically was the correct decision.

Swings and roundabouts - Sexton was play acting vs Scotland in 2016 and milked YC for the opposition.

collapse probably not as much you but I saw the one last year, the loss to Scotland, the one in 2015. I don't remember every game, probably others.

Good man. But the point was...that's why we lost.

SecretFly wrote:

beshocked wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

beshocked wrote:To be honest I think Wayne Barnes has reffed Ireland well in general. Ireland have squandered opportunities in games he has reffed.

Last year Ireland only gave away 4 penalties to Wales 10 yet supposedly Barnes was the reason, Ireland lost....

nah, that would have been the yellow card for our most important player.

Yellow card was well deserved for cynically killing the ball near the line.  You can say Sexton was unlucky but but technically was the correct decision.

Swings and roundabouts - Sexton was play acting vs Scotland in 2016 and milked YC for the opposition.

collapse probably not as much you but I saw the one last year, the loss to Scotland, the one in 2015. I don't remember every game, probably others.

Good man.  But the point was...that's why we lost.

It was Sexton's fault not Barnes. Shouldn't have put himself in that position.

If you kill the ball near the line like that there's a high chance you'll be sin binned.

I'm guessing most referees wouldn't have carded Sexton as he was under the ball rather than on top of it with Jonathan Davies on top of the ball and Sexton. Barnes however, couldn't wait to get the card out of his pocket.

SecretFly wrote:

Scottrf wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Just as a stat...and when Guns is on his favourite topic.  Is there a record of how many cards Ireland have taken under Wayne?  And what colours?  I'm thinking it might be a language barrier that creates the confusion between him and us.

Less than your opposition

Oh you have the stats!  Goodie.  Give 'em to me.  I love stats!

He's refereed 11 Six Nations games for Ireland.

Ireland have conceded more penalties than their opponents on 3 of the 11 occasions.

Ireland have conceded 116 penalties, their opponents 135.

Ireland have received 7 yellow cards, their opponents 9.

beshocked wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

beshocked wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

beshocked wrote:To be honest I think Wayne Barnes has reffed Ireland well in general. Ireland have squandered opportunities in games he has reffed.

Last year Ireland only gave away 4 penalties to Wales 10 yet supposedly Barnes was the reason, Ireland lost....

nah, that would have been the yellow card for our most important player.

Yellow card was well deserved for cynically killing the ball near the line.  You can say Sexton was unlucky but but technically was the correct decision.

Swings and roundabouts - Sexton was play acting vs Scotland in 2016 and milked YC for the opposition.

collapse probably not as much you but I saw the one last year, the loss to Scotland, the one in 2015. I don't remember every game, probably others.

Good man.  But the point was...that's why we lost.

It was Sexton's fault not Barnes. Shouldn't have put himself in that position.

If you kill the ball near the line like that there's a high chance you'll be sin binned.

Again not my point about who is to blame. You directed a comment "yet supposedly Barnes was the reason Ireland lost"
I simply said no. Barnes wasn't the reason - the reason was that we lost our central playmaker for 10.

Scottrf wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Scottrf wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Just as a stat...and when Guns is on his favourite topic.  Is there a record of how many cards Ireland have taken under Wayne?  And what colours?  I'm thinking it might be a language barrier that creates the confusion between him and us.

Less than your opposition

Oh you have the stats!  Goodie.  Give 'em to me.  I love stats!

He's refereed 11 Six Nations games for Ireland.

Ireland have conceded more penalties than their opponents on 3 of the 11 occasions.

Ireland have conceded 116 penalties, their opponents 135.

Ireland have received 7 yellow cards, their opponents 9.

Some context, since Barnes started refereeing he has covered 14 Ireland games and he has given Ireland 9 yellows and 1 red. Of our 109 games during that period we have received in total 24 yellows and 2 red. Close to 2/5 of our cards have come in Barnes games (10% of our games). That figure itself is staggering.

However, if you look at our opponents have received 10 yellows in total in 14 Barnes reffed games and yet over the total spread of 109 games our opponents have received a total of 57 yellow and 1 red.

As such not only are we carded more on average by Barnes our opponents are carded less in terms of overall ratios.

Collapse2005 wrote:

Scottrf wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Scottrf wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Just as a stat...and when Guns is on his favourite topic.  Is there a record of how many cards Ireland have taken under Wayne?  And what colours?  I'm thinking it might be a language barrier that creates the confusion between him and us.

Less than your opposition

Oh you have the stats!  Goodie.  Give 'em to me.  I love stats!

He's refereed 11 Six Nations games for Ireland.

Ireland have conceded more penalties than their opponents on 3 of the 11 occasions.

Ireland have conceded 116 penalties, their opponents 135.

Ireland have received 7 yellow cards, their opponents 9.

Some context, since Barnes started refereeing he has covered 14 Ireland games and he has given Ireland 9 yellows and 1 red. Of our 109 games during that period we have received in total 24 yellows and 2 red. Close to 2/5 of our cards have come in Barnes games (10% of our games). That figure itself is staggering.

However, if you look at our opponents have received 10 yellows in total in 14 Barnes reffed games and yet over the total spread of 109 games our opponents have received a total of 57 yellow and 1 red.

As such not only are we carded more on average by Barnes our opponents are carded less.

10 in 14 is a higher ratio than 57 in 109...

I know but in terms of ratio of cards we receive vs our opponents Barnes games are completely out of synch with our overall ratio which was what I meant.

It surprised me how many people consider him to be such a good ref when if you look at his career as a whole he probably has had more controversial moments that most referees.

You're a stats man then collapse. Would you say opposition should be considered? I mean if a load of those games were against say australia back when they were good.it may skew your stats? Seeing as you don't want to understand the games.

And of course does barnes himself.give more pens than other refs. How many advantages does. He play.etc.

Scottrf wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Scottrf wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Just as a stat...and when Guns is on his favourite topic.  Is there a record of how many cards Ireland have taken under Wayne?  And what colours?  I'm thinking it might be a language barrier that creates the confusion between him and us.

Less than your opposition

Oh you have the stats!  Goodie.  Give 'em to me.  I love stats!

He's refereed 11 Six Nations games for Ireland.

Ireland have conceded more penalties than their opponents on 3 of the 11 occasions.

Ireland have conceded 116 penalties, their opponents 135.

Ireland have received 7 yellow cards, their opponents 9.

Thank you. Nice bunch of stats. Where did we get all the penalties and where did our opponents get them? Don't bother, only joking.

Ireland just have to be very English at the breakdown and we should be okay...provided he makes Scotland be very English about it too.

No 7&1/2 wrote:You're a stats man then collapse. Would you say opposition should be considered? I mean if a load of those games were against say australia back when they were good.it may skew your stats?  Seeing as you don't want to understand the games.

For some referees you should consider opposition sure. For example we have a low enough win/loss for Owens because he tends to get the most high profile games often v NZ. For a long time Barnes actually wasn't allowed ref NZ games too.

However, I don't see it as much of an issue re Barnes as there is a good spread of opposition.

No 7&1/2 wrote:And of course does barnes himself.give more pens than other refs.  How many advantages does. He play.etc.

Yes he does which is partially why I don't rate him as a ref. He is overly emotional.

What's the breakdown again? I seem.to remember a fair number of aus games when someone else posted them? I also seen to remember that italy game as one ireland came out lucky to loss by so little.

Collapse2005 wrote:I know but in terms of ratio of cards we receive vs our opponents Barnes games are completely out of synch with our overall ratio which was what I meant.

Okay but that's not the same as saying he was wrong in awarding them. Maybe you actually offend more, or maybe it's to do with his interpretation not fitting your style. Proving bias needs a bit more.

Your comments are like looking at 7 heads from 10 coin flips and claiming it's a loaded coin.