PGA Tour: Valspar Championship: Notes from the Ballwasher

by kwinigolfer Wed 07 Mar 2018, 7:09 pm

First topic message reminder :

1).The start/stop/start/carry on nature of the Florida Swing resumes in the Tampa area this week, at Innisbrook Resort's highly regarded Par-71 (5 x Par-3's, 4 x Par-5's) Copperhead Course. Bay Hill next week, then off to Texas for two weeks at Austin's WGC-MatchPlay and the Houston Open, which still awaits a sponsor.

2).Phil Mickelson won't be in town, but congrats to him for overcoming Justin Thomas in last week's exciting WGC-Mexico. This puts Phil in the driving seat to qualify for yet another Ryder Cup, and fellow lefty Brian Harman has also climbed into the qualifying spots.
Top 8: Thomas, DJ, Koepka, Phil, Spieth, Kuchar, Harman, Woodland - next four outside automatic placings: Fowler, Bubba, Reavie, Kizzire.
Golfers from Hazeltine currently outside the Top 12 are: Reed (13th), Zach (20th), Holmes (27th), Moore (30th), Snedeker (35th), Walker (40th).

3).Phil becomes the 4th Pro to reach 3 x WGC titles after Woods (18 - and counting?), DJ (5), Ogilvy (3).
And a reminder that Darren Clarke, Day, Els, Mahan, Matsuyama, Poults, Rory, Rosey and Adam Scott all have a couple each.

4).Plenty of fine performances in Mexico, not least by Tyrrell Hatton but, let's face it, Hatton looked a complete Wally at times when he was struggling to make birdies early in his round. Then he enjoyed a purple patch including that quite magnificent shot to within a few feet for eagle. Once he'd joined the leaders he was going to go on and clinch the title, wasn't he?
From the middle of the 18th fairway, some kind of wedge in hand, he contrived to lose three shots to Thomas's eagle, rounding it off with a 10-foot putt for a chance at the biggest championship of his career which he left woefully short. What was he thinking? Was he thinking? Not what we want to see from a potential Major winner (but not like that) and Ryder Cupper.

5).As at "Honda", the Valspar field is short of many leading Americans, with only Spieth and Kuchar of the owgr Top 24 avoiding the temptation of a week off. And, as at "Honda", the leading Europeans are playing to beef (no, not him) up the field, Rose, Garcia, Rory, Stenson and Casey all teeing it up.

6).Bill Haas is here too, thankfully following his LA Ferrari ride and injuries, physical and mental no doubt. Good luck to him.

7).And so is Tiger Woods, making his first appearance at Innisbrook since the mixed team event 22 years ago (with Kelli Kuenhe - both dressed in red that Sunday!). Tiger played really well at the Honda Classic and he should have a comfortable pairing again this week with Spieth and Stenson.

8).There are plenty of course specialists in the field including Kuchar, Justin Rose (arguably should have won here a year or three ago), Spieth, Sergio, Stenson and Jason Dufner who's finished in the Top 28 the past nine years.

But my one-and-done this week is Cameron Smith - he needs just one decent week to qualify for Augusta (his team win in New Orleans doesn't attract the Hooties' attention unfortunately), and has been in good form without really contending. But fairways (40th in total driving) and greens (57th in gir) are the order of the week and he's overdue for his first solo US win.

by NedB-H Sun 11 Mar 2018, 9:22 pm

Top ten looking trickier now anyway after that hole....

by AlciG Sun 11 Mar 2018, 9:37 pm

A Tiger roar. Too little too late probably

by AlciG Sun 11 Mar 2018, 9:47 pm

WTH... as soon as I saw Reed with the putter I told my girlfriend his caddy should take it out of his hands

by AlciG Sun 11 Mar 2018, 9:51 pm

Well done Casey

by Be_the_ball Sun 11 Mar 2018, 9:57 pm

The Grin wins it :'(

by super_realist Sun 11 Mar 2018, 10:06 pm

Not Many Reps needed for NMR.

Not sure he looks anything more than just another one of 50 players who can win a tournament just yet though.

by NedB-H Sun 11 Mar 2018, 10:18 pm

super_realist wrote:Not Many Reps needed for NMR.

Not sure he looks anything more than just another one of 50 players who can win a tournament just yet though.

Grudging praise?!?

Kind of got a point though. He's clearly a contender, which in fairness is more than I ever expected to be able to say at this stage. In the peak 2000-2008 years if he was in contention two things would happen, he'd make a move on Sunday and everyone else would fall away. Not sure that will ever be the same. But a Tiger who contends like anyone else, and a field who aren't scared of him, is probably the best possible outcome for the next few years.

Fair play to Casey after his problems yesterday. Can't stand him though.

by super_realist Sun 11 Mar 2018, 10:32 pm

I do like Casey's swing, is he another one of these idiots like Willett, who says "we" all the time?

by McLaren Sun 11 Mar 2018, 11:05 pm

To be fair to Willett would anyone want to take sole blame for the horror show that is his game these days?

by GPB Sun 11 Mar 2018, 11:05 pm

Cannot believe Woods hit an iron off the 18th tee, when he needed birdie to tie and possibly win, and anything else is "Not Winning the Golf Tournament"

He left himself a 185 yd uphill shot to a tucked. Chances of an up/down from 185 is considerably less than a 130 yd shot from fairway or rough.

an iron off the tee is probably the best strategy on the 36th hole, or 54th hole or even the 67th hole, or possibly even the 73rd hole, but it is not the best strategy on 72nd hole when you have to make birdie to get into a playoff

by McLaren Sun 11 Mar 2018, 11:11 pm

GPB

Didn't realise tiger had taken an iron from the last tee, I was only following the events via the leaderboard.

I would agree with you that it wouldn't be the best strategy for getting the birdie, but is it possible he didn't think he could hit the fairway? If so maybe he felt the equation was rough vs 185 from the fairway.

Although it is kinda weird we are discussing what strategy he should have used on the 72nd to win an event because I thought his comeback was going to be pretty embarrassing.

by GPB Sun 11 Mar 2018, 11:43 pm

McLaren wrote:GPB

Didn't realise tiger had taken an iron from the last tee, I was only following the events via the leaderboard.

I would agree with you that it wouldn't be the best strategy for getting the birdie, but is it possible he didn't think he could hit the fairway? If so maybe he felt the equation was rough vs 185 from the fairway.

Although it is kinda weird we are discussing what strategy he should have used on the 72nd to win an event because I thought his comeback was going to be pretty embarrassing.

There is no guarantee that Tiger hits the fairway with the iron.

FWIW, Reed striped a driver down the 18th fairway, when he was tied with Casey at -10. He had 133 yds to the flagstick, 50 yds less than Tiger. Reed screwed the Pooch from there though.

by GPB Mon 12 Mar 2018, 12:54 am

Looks like the Match Play is going at least to OWGR #67.

Rose, Koepka, and Stenson is out.

Sergio is iffy.

MatchPlay Bubble:

by I'm never wrong Mon 12 Mar 2018, 7:44 am

GPB wrote:
There is no guarantee that Tiger hits the fairway with the iron.
.

I’m with Mac here. Although there are no guarantees he probably felt the chances were better with an iron that would PROBABLY end up in the fairway, than driver that has only a REMOTE POSSIBILITY of being there.

by super_realist Mon 12 Mar 2018, 8:00 am

McLaren wrote:To be fair to Willett would anyone want to take sole blame for the horror show that is his game these days?

Excellent point Mac.

by Be_the_ball Mon 12 Mar 2018, 8:10 am

Actually, if Tiger had won that it would have been the greatest comeback since Bobby Ewing walked out of the shower.

by AlciG Mon 12 Mar 2018, 9:02 am

GPB wrote:Looks like the Match Play is going at least to OWGR #67.

That would mean Luiten would be in Fingers Crossed

by Roller_Coaster Mon 12 Mar 2018, 9:23 am

Be_the_ball wrote:Actually, if Tiger had won that it would have been the greatest comeback since Bobby Ewing walked out of the shower.

by raycastleunited Mon 12 Mar 2018, 11:10 am

GPB wrote:Cannot believe Woods hit an iron off the 18th tee, when he needed birdie to tie and possibly win, and anything else is "Not Winning the Golf Tournament"

He left himself a 185 yd uphill shot to a tucked. Chances of an up/down from 185 is considerably less than a 130 yd shot from fairway or rough.

an iron off the tee is probably the best strategy on the 36th hole, or 54th hole or even the 67th hole, or possibly even the 73rd hole, but it is not the best strategy on 72nd hole when you have to make birdie to get into a playoff

I think Tiger made the right decision on the 72nd tee.

His driving was wayward, and 18 was a narrow fairway. He swallowed his pride and realised that driver would probably put him in trouble. Tiger has always been outstanding with his long irons (I bet his career proximity to the hole stats from +175 yards and +200 yards are top of the field), so he backed himself to 1. find the fairway with his 2 iron and 2. find the heart of the green with a 4 iron. Another yard and his approach would have been pin high.

I wasn't surprised to see him leave the driver in the bag on 18, but I was surprised he didn't hit his 3 wood. He was striking that really well... tee shot on 16 for example.

by kwinigolfer Mon 12 Mar 2018, 2:35 pm

Off the grid for the past few days, but quite the action from Innisbrook.
Very entertaining - credit to Casey and Tiger, but agree the iron off #18 was an unusual choice - stats show his approach was the longest of the day from those players in the fairway. Imagine Tiger in his early prime would have taken at least a 3-Wood.
NBC was saying he's groomed the rough around one of his practice greens at home to mimic that at Bay Hill; is that to hone his already pretty bl00dy good chipping, or precautionary action in expectation of missing a lot of greens. There'll be widespread dismay if he doesn't win again at Bay Hill - most of all from NBC TV.

Excellent holing out by Casey with three knee tremblers canned in his final three holes - no vertigo this time. Amazing what happens when he returns to the European Tour . . . . . Run

Fine international leaderboard - big surprise was miscues from Justin Rose on his back nine. Still like him for Augusta though.

Rob Bolton states "Sergio announced intention to skip WGC-MatchPlay"; not sure exactly how definitive that is, but an unusual post if there is any doubt.

by NedB-H Mon 12 Mar 2018, 2:57 pm

Rose also my tip for Augusta. Don't think he did all that much wrong yesterday, couple of crooked tee shots on the back nine when trying to push it too hard, and irons dialled in to 75% rather than 90%. Him and Casey both with good Augusta records, with Phil, Bubba and Tiger back in form too we're just missing Jordan and Cabrera for the course specialists full house...

No doubt the TV people would love a Tiger win next week, and will lose out big time if he's not in Sunday contention. They should be wary of wanting him to win every week though. As great a storyline as his comeback is, the guy's 42, he can't go on forever. If he dominates the new generation of JRs, JSs, JTs and Rory's, it doesn't bode well for the state of the game in ten year's time.
Still harbouring hopes of a near miss next week followed by a late entry into the Dominican in chase of #80.

Read that Koepka, Rose and Stenson are already definite no's for the MP, with Garcia doubtful, anyone seen anything confirmed anywhere regarding those or anyone else?

by kwinigolfer Mon 12 Mar 2018, 3:49 pm

Nothing confirmed, or speculated.

Perez withdraws this week though, not sure of the reason.

by I'm never wrong Mon 12 Mar 2018, 4:15 pm

NedB-H wrote:

No doubt the TV people would love a Tiger win next week

Apparently NBC viewing figures for Saturday up 181% according to a BBC report.

by kwinigolfer Mon 12 Mar 2018, 5:33 pm

Haven't heard from Shotrock recently, but an estate agent friend reports that he's interested in buying this spread:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/elin-nordegren-tiger-woodss-ex-wife-lists-home-for-49-5-million-1520869729

by super_realist Mon 12 Mar 2018, 5:45 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:Off the grid for the past few days, but quite the action from Innisbrook.
Very entertaining - credit to Casey and Tiger, but agree the iron off #18 was an unusual choice - stats show his approach was the longest of the day from those players in the fairway. Imagine Tiger in his early prime would have taken at least a 3-Wood.
NBC was saying he's groomed the rough around one of his practice greens at home to mimic that at Bay Hill; is that to hone his already pretty bl00dy good chipping, or precautionary action in expectation of missing a lot of greens. There'll be widespread dismay if he doesn't win again at Bay Hill - most of all from NBC TV.

Excellent holing out by Casey with three knee tremblers canned in his final three holes - no vertigo this time. Amazing what happens when he returns to the European Tour . . . . .

Fine international leaderboard - big surprise was miscues from Justin Rose on his back nine. Still like him for Augusta though.

Rob Bolton states "Sergio announced intention to skip WGC-MatchPlay"; not sure exactly how definitive that is, but an unusual post if there is any doubt.

Where is Mac piping up to say NMR is a bottle job and a choker for taking an iron? If this was anyone else but the sainted 9C, a lot of people would be giving them terrible clog for not taking it on. I wonder what 9C thought he had to lose? Yes, his driving is not his strongpoint, but getting to birdie range with a long iron is not the choice of someone who has balls or who has confidence in their game.
If anything, it reveals he's not the Woods of old, as that would have been taken on in a heartbeat, as a lack of course management was his hallmark, and having as much control as a US Army grunt with a trigger would see him pull out the driver. How bad must he be in his mind with the Driver and 3 wood that he didn't feel confident he could hit a fairway? Or has he simply gained another braincell to add to his solitary one which has brought some conservatism to his game?

by McLaren Mon 12 Mar 2018, 6:52 pm

Super

I agreed with GPB that iron was the wrong play, but put forward a reason for why Tiger might have done it.

However good you are from 185 out you are going to be a lot better with a shorter iron in hand.

by kwinigolfer Mon 12 Mar 2018, 7:05 pm

He compounded his problem by hitting 7-iron from 185 yards. Uphill. To a hole cut just on top of a ridge.

Pretty awful shirt he was wearing, looked like it was some kind of pantomime pyjama top. More evidence for the prosecution in favour of many clubs here banning collarless shirts - until Tiger started wearing those mock footie shirts 15 or so years ago. Also awful.

by Diggers Mon 12 Mar 2018, 7:29 pm

Bit of a weird call by Woods, that said he's made a stack of good ones in the past so not sure what making one poor decision says. It was nothing in comparison to Reeds call to putt on the 18th, that's for sure.
All in all a brilliant few weeks for him, certainly makes golf a lot more watchable for me when he's in the mix.

by beninho Mon 12 Mar 2018, 8:00 pm

About 7 birdies in 18, one of which was from a drive over 300. He also played the same club every day on that hole. If he had a slash at it and knocked it in the rough he would have got stick, he plays tge percentage play and still gets stick.

He is a brilliant mid iron player just didnt pull it off. But the hole looks bloody hard as shown by only 7 birdies all day.

by pedro Mon 12 Mar 2018, 8:04 pm

If Tiger had made a birdie on 18, pulling that 2-iron would have been voted the best course management decision of the year. When it was in fact one of the worst. There’s a big difference trying to win golf tournaments and trying to protect a score. The old Tiger would have pulled the driver or 3-wood.

US golf media is going completely bananas over Tiger like it’s the second coming of Christ. I bet Golf TV execs are sitting with serious boners waiting for the API to start.

by Diggers Mon 12 Mar 2018, 8:46 pm

Be interesting to see what the viewing figures are for a the last round of a tournament when Woods is in contention, as opposed to when he isn't playing. I'd suspect there's a big uplift. There was definitely an atmosphere that I haven't seen for a long while, certainly not at a tour event. Whether you like that or not of course is entirely subjective.

by Be_the_ball Mon 12 Mar 2018, 8:55 pm

The worst shot he played on the 72nd wasn't his tee or approach shots, it was the putt he left short imo. Lets not forget he made no putts all day Sun and just missed a playoff by 1 stroke. That's what impressed me the most, it's the first time he's been competitive like that in a long time and I thought I'd never see that again.

by super_realist Mon 12 Mar 2018, 9:05 pm

pedro wrote:If Tiger had made a birdie on 18, pulling that 2-iron would have been voted the best course management decision of the year. When it was in fact one of the worst. There’s a big difference trying to win golf tournaments and trying to protect a score. The old Tiger would have pulled the driver or 3-wood.

US golf media is going completely bananas over Tiger like it’s the second coming of Christ. I bet Golf TV execs are sitting with serious boners waiting for the API to start.

Bubba, Ben, Rev Spieth and Zach must be going bananas with people making false gods.

by GPB Mon 12 Mar 2018, 9:21 pm

don't forget Rory and Sergio

Cross wearing Fenians

by super_realist Mon 12 Mar 2018, 9:22 pm

GPB wrote:don't forget Rory and Sergio

Cross wearing Fenians

Fair point. Though someone might pipe up and call you catholicophobic for that particular name.

by beninho Mon 12 Mar 2018, 9:31 pm

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.golfdigest.com/story/tiger-woods-helped-nbc-grabbed-the-biggest-non-masters-tv-audience-since-2015/amp

Say what you want about him, but tiger woods is golf.

by beninho Mon 12 Mar 2018, 9:33 pm

super_realist wrote:
pedro wrote:If Tiger had made a birdie on 18, pulling that 2-iron would have been voted the best course management decision of the year. When it was in fact one of the worst. There’s a big difference trying to win golf tournaments and trying to protect a score. The old Tiger would have pulled the driver or 3-wood.

US golf media is going completely bananas over Tiger like it’s the second coming of Christ. I bet Golf TV execs are sitting with serious boners waiting for the API to start.

Bubba, Ben, Rev Spieth and Zach must be going bananas with people making false gods.

Why's that?

by super_realist Mon 12 Mar 2018, 10:14 pm

Making a false god out of NMR.

Is he golf, or does he just make some extra non golfers watch?

by Diggers Mon 12 Mar 2018, 10:25 pm

I doubt the TV guys care.

by raycastleunited Tue 13 Mar 2018, 10:53 am

kwinigolfer wrote:He compounded his problem by hitting 7-iron from 185 yards. Uphill. To a hole cut just on top of a ridge.

So really, what you're saying is his mistake wasn't hitting iron off the tee, but rather hitting 7 iron approach instead of a 6.

by raycastleunited Tue 13 Mar 2018, 11:00 am

pedro wrote:If Tiger had made a birdie on 18, pulling that 2-iron would have been voted the best course management decision of the year.

I think this is perhaps the most astute observation on here so far.

Everyone is making out Tiger laid up 300 yards short and left himself an impossible shot into the green. He left himself a 7 iron in. That's still a short to mid iron that a pro would expect to control from the middle of the fairway. Especially the greatest mid iron player of all time (possibly).

I'm still surprised he didn't hit 3 wood off the tee.

by **navyblueshorts** Tue 13 Mar 2018, 12:38 pm

beninho wrote:https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.golfdigest.com/story/tiger-woods-helped-nbc-grabbed-the-biggest-non-masters-tv-audience-since-2015/amp

Say what you want about him, but tiger woods is golf.

by McLaren Tue 13 Mar 2018, 1:08 pm

This calculated birdie % using different tee shot strategies. Up shot is that Tiger's birdie chance was about 10% short of optimal. https://twitter.com/NelsonAdcock/status/973436193152040961

PGA Tour: Valspar Championship: Notes from the Ballwasher - Page 2 DYJVw2PUMAABYX6

PGA Tour: Valspar Championship: Notes from the Ballwasher - Page 2 DYJVw2PUMAABYX6

And at 14% a driver in the rough has about the same birdie probability as where he hit his iron from the tee to.

by pedro Tue 13 Mar 2018, 1:12 pm

beninho wrote:https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.golfdigest.com/story/tiger-woods-helped-nbc-grabbed-the-biggest-non-masters-tv-audience-since-2015/amp

Say what you want about him, but tiger woods is golf.

True dat. Mac now drives a Honda Civic R and just painted his dorm room.

by JAS Tue 13 Mar 2018, 1:13 pm

raycastleunited wrote:
pedro wrote:If Tiger had made a birdie on 18, pulling that 2-iron would have been voted the best course management decision of the year.

I think this is perhaps the most astute observation on here so far.

Everyone is making out Tiger laid up 300 yards short and left himself an impossible shot into the green. He left himself a 7 iron in. That's still a short to mid iron that a pro would expect to control from the middle of the fairway. Especially the greatest mid iron player of all time (possibly).

I'm still surprised he didn't hit 3 wood off the tee.

I was a bit surprised regarding the club choice, from what I saw he was striping his 3 wood.
Quite a contrast in confidence level on the tee compared to approaching the green.
Of course it should be remembered as well, Reed pummelled his driver 300+ up the middle & hit what he initially thought was a great wedge before having a mini meltdown.

by pedro Tue 13 Mar 2018, 1:23 pm

Despite their endless TW sycophancy, even the Golf Channel pundits didn't like that 2 iron.

by beninho Tue 13 Mar 2018, 1:39 pm

McLaren wrote:This calculated birdie % using different tee shot strategies. Up shot is that Tiger's birdie chance was about 10% short of optimal. https://twitter.com/NelsonAdcock/status/973436193152040961

And at 14% a driver in the rough has about the same birdie probability as where he hit his iron from the tee to.

This is not based on the 18th at Valspar though, so its pretty meaningless.

by beninho Tue 13 Mar 2018, 1:45 pm

He probably should have hit a three wood, but still would have been bloody difficult to birdie that hole.

by pedro Tue 13 Mar 2018, 2:19 pm

On a hole with such a low birdie yield you would normally have to gamle a bit with your drive. Finishing 2nd or 5th shouldn't matter.

But who knows, maybe TW wanted to avoid making a fool out of himself, like Reed did, and just prove to himself and others he was still around. A bogey on 18 could have been tough mentally when you've been struggling 2-3 years to get at where he was after 71 holes. Why ruin the good feeling?

Maybe he'll pull out the driver if he needs a birdie on 72nd next week.

by **navyblueshorts** Tue 13 Mar 2018, 2:39 pm

Have to laugh. Hardly anyone made 3 up that hole on Sunday, no matter their strategy, and it was also the joint-hardest hole on the last day.

http://www.espn.com/golf/stats/hole/_/round/4

I think I'll defer to Woods as to whether his strategy was a good one.

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