Summer 2018 Grass Court Season

They are back on the grass from today. Can Fed get another Wimbledon title? Will Rafa have his first good SW19 for a while? Will Murray get back on court? Can anyone under the age of 29 step up?
Fed could get back to number one if he reaches the Stuttgart final although his main thoughts will be on Wimbledon. He must be favourite for another GS, although not such a big a favourite as Rafa was at the French. Other possible contenders include Cilic, Raonic (if fit) Zverev (if he can adapt), delpo, and....Rafa ? It would not be before time if the Spaniard had a good showing at Wimbledon.
The women's, as ever, is wide open, especially if Serena is not able to play. Mug and Kvitova could go a long way, as could Kerber. Stephens could also go deep.

Other News - Not sure what to make of the following story involving Sara Errani - she has just had a ban extended from 2 months to 10 months. It seems that the drug her mother was taking as part of her breast cancer treatment ended up contaminating a meal prepared by said mother. It seems her mother dropped a few tablets on the counter, and one or two or a fragment of a tablet ended up in the meal, when the mother later used the counter to prepare a meal.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/44440473

Djokovic given a wild card for Queens. He hasn't played there since 2008. His final with Nadal that year was superb, remember it like it was yesterday. I know the Wimbledon final in 2008 was the stand out match that year but for consistent quality the queens final of 2008 was right up there, particularly for a much smaller ATP tournament.

Nadal not sure for wimbledon

Four standout favourites for Wimbledon. RF, Novak, Cilic or Del Potro.

Don’t see Rafa as a contender. Vulnerable in first week, then seems to always come up against someone playing out of their skin.

Wouldn't be surprised if Nadal missed the grass court season. Seemed to have some issues with his wrist during Roland Garros but said it was just cramp. Only has 180 points to protect so might decide he needs a break after all his efforts on clay.

Without a doubt RF favorite.  Cilic second favorite.  Then anybody else willing to step up.  

I had predicted that Nishikori would be the next player to win a first slam - but although his return performances have been slowly getting better there has been nothing dramatic to suggest he will threaten at the slam level as yet. It is still unclear whether he will get anywhere near his previous best. Still he has several more years left.

Djokovic is slowly but surely getting better - the question is will he plateau well below his previous best and will this be enough to begin challenging to get into SF and Finals again.  Surely one might expect him to get to the QF and possibly the SF. I think getting to the SF would be a sure sign that he is continuing to improve.

I suppose Wimbledon 2018 will be too early for Murray - I would like to see him getting onto the challenger circuit and getting to a stage that he is fit enough to compete at that level for a period of time - then making the step up back onto the ATP tour.  As long as there is steady improvement - then we can begin to develop a hope that he might have some sort of indian summer in his career to look forward to.

Nadal withdraws from Queens. Not really a surprise.

Fed managed a three set win against M Zverev at stuttgart today. Bound to be a bit rusty and was up against a good grass court player. A defeat would have meant three losses in a row. Probably 20 years since that happened.

sirfredperry wrote:... A defeat would have meant three losses in a row. Probably 20 years since that happened.

So 20 years since he last lost three in a row if he had lost three in a row today which he didn't. So fortunately we don't need to worry about that statistic.  

Nevertheless as a statistic that is interesting.  But then this is a probable statistic so might not be the case.  That would have made him around 16 / 17 / 18.  You may be right - but that would be an incredible statistic - I know Murray would often have a post Australian Open blues period where he would have a three to five match losing streak.  It would be very interesting to do an analysis of losing streaks for Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, Murray.  I am sure Nadal had the occasional three game losing streak during the non-clay season - but maybe not.  Djokovic perhaps yes apart from the imperious five year reign of Djokovic.  Murray definitely.  Federer - I can't recall any three game losing streak - so yes you may be right.

Indeed a good win for Federer over the tricky netrushing elder Zverev brother. At the same tournament, an early loss for Shapovalov who was seeded - probably his 1st disappointing loss for a long time given his upward trajectory, and Tomic (remember him) has re-emerged and started winning again.

With regards to contenders for Wimbledon, agree with Federer and Cilic as 1st and 2nd favourites, and being pretty wide open after that. The other tall big-servers should also be considered - Berdych, Querrey, Anderson, Isner as well as Del Potro and Raonic (maybe not to win, but to possibly reach semis) I would throw Dimitrov into the mix - yes he's been disappointing this year, but grass is one surface where he does look reasonably convincing. I can see Djokovic reaching 4th round/quarters, and Nadal (if he turns up) and Thiem to lose in the 1st week.

I had high hopes for Goffin this season following his good run at the ATP Tour finals at the end of the last season. But unfortunately he hasn't kicked on and has rather gone back to previous levels (with the ATP tour final being the exception). Dimitrov ... he doesn't have the consistency and some claim it is a certain lack of a work ethic and determination in training that has ultimately limited him.

After a two sets practice match with Cameron Norrie, Andy Murray has declared himself fully fit to play at Queens ATP 500 tournament which begins in two days time.  Feliciano López is the defending champion.  I know that this is Andy Murray's best tournament (five titles?) but I am worried that he is really going to be pushed through the mill and would have preferred he started at a less physically intense level - challenger level or doubles.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/44506760

Federer beats Kyrgios in Stuttgart to get back to ATP #1.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX9RaT3l6dM

Federer vs Kyrgios

Kyrgios looking very good on serve and in general, also some showboatinng and saving energy when 40-15 or 40-0 down - which seems less common nowadays although years ago it seemed to be more common.

High quality, entertaining, and also the grass here looks faster so old school grass, what's not to like? Reccomended

Henman Bill wrote:...and also the grass here looks faster so old school grass, what's not to like? Reccomended

Based on Court Pace (ITF CS 01/02), with some variations,  the court seems to be closer to Medium. I think Halle uses the same system.

Henman Bill wrote:... Kyrgios looking very good on serve and in general, also some showboatinng and saving energy when 40-15 or 40-0 down - which seems less common nowadays although years ago it seemed to be more common. High quality, entertaining ...

Next Up Queens: first round Kyrgios vs Andy Murray.
Predictions? Have to favour Kyrgios. For Andy Murray a few service holds and surviving the match uninjured would represent progress.

Considering Murray has been out for a year then anyone tipping Murray to win V Kyrgios must believe he is super human. I will take it as a victory if he loses but comes through it unscathed and happy with his movement.

Henman Bill wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX9RaT3l6dM
Federer vs Kyrgios
High quality, entertaining, and also the grass here looks faster so old school grass, what's not to like? Reccomended

Agree.  Fantastic match.  Went to a final set tie-break with Federer narrowly coming through.   If Kyrgios can get consistency into his game and avoid injuries he regularly gets he could begin to challenge for tournament titles.

With Kyrgios getting to the semi-final and Milos Raonic getting to the Final of the Stuttgart Open, then these two could be a major threat at Wimbledon.  Good to see Raonic back from long term / intermittent injury - let's hope he suffers no ill reactions from his exertions of this week.  Kyrgios has also been off for a few months injured - so good to see him back in full health.

Federer wins Stuttgart 2018 beating Raonic in straight sets.

A good week for Konta who reached the final in Nottingham, though she lost in end of Ashleigh Barty and had a bit of hissy fit at end of match over a line-call refusing to shake umpire's hand.

Good to see Raonic is back and contending again - if he remains uninjured I'd move him up to 3rd favourite for Wimbledon behind Federer and Cilic.

Regarding Murray v Kyrgios at Queens I agree we need to set the bar low for Murray in that one - moving well, surviving with no injury issues and serving OK in a reasonably competitive match would be a success.

Spot on with the Murray comments, Mr I. Would actually be better for Murray to lose but feel reasonably OK than to win and be in discomfort.
Saw a few clips of the Fed-Kyrgios and Fed-Raonic matches from Stuttgart. Kyrgios looks a real threat on grass and could easily have won having been 3-1 up in the final-set tiebreak. Raonic has already reached a Wimbledon final and could do well again.
Fed would probably have been favourite for Wimbledon in any case, but is even more so having triumphed at Stuttgart. A dream scenario for him would be titles at Halle and Wimbledon to take him to 100 titles. May be he won't want to go too far this week, having already got some matches on grass under his belt. But his matches never seem that long. Even with two tiebreaks his semi with Kyrgios was under two hours.
Norrie v Wawrinka at Queen's today. The Brit has a chance as it's not certain how fit the Man is and the Swiss is never that comfortable on grass.

Do they serve strawberries at all grass court tournaments, or is it just Wimbledon? I'd quite like some Halle Berry.

sirfredperry wrote:Spot on with the Murray comments, Mr I. Would actually be better for Murray to lose but feel reasonably OK than to win and be in discomfort.
  Saw a few clips of the Fed-Kyrgios and Fed-Raonic matches from Stuttgart. Kyrgios looks a real threat on grass and could easily have won having been 3-1 up in the final-set tiebreak. Raonic has already reached a Wimbledon final and could do well again.
  Fed would probably have been favourite for Wimbledon in any case, but is even more so having triumphed at Stuttgart. A dream scenario for him would be titles at Halle and Wimbledon to take him to 100 titles. May be he won't want to go too far this week, having already got some matches on grass under his belt. But his matches never seem that long. Even with two tiebreaks his semi with Kyrgios was under two hours.
  Norrie v Wawrinka at Queen's today. The Brit has a chance as it's not certain how fit the Man is and the Swiss is never that comfortable on grass.

Fed is surely the odds on favourite for Wimbledon? Rafa winning the French was expected but there was a small element of tension as the likes of Thiem and Zverev might have stepped up. On grass, I don’t see anyone near to Fed. I expect him to win at a canter. I’m hopeful Novak might have got back in reasonable enough shape to give him a bit of a game but I’m expecting a very one-sided tournament.

I disagree. On grass anyone is more vulnerable to a big server. Cilic, Raonic, Kygios, Del Potro - if they have a great day on serve, they could take out Federer.

Sadly Federer no longer has the legs for cantering. If he wins Wimbledon it won't be at a canter.

Federer has played Wimbledon 19 years in a row: winning 8 titles and losing 11 titles.
Nadal has played the French Open 14 times. Winning 11 titles, losing 2 titles and withdrawing once from injury (in 2016 - when he won in the first two rounds 6-1 6-1 6-1 & 6-3 6-0 6-3 and then withdrew).

No name Bertie wrote:Sadly Federer no longer has the legs for cantering.  If he wins Wimbledon it won't be at a canter.

Federer has played Wimbledon 19 years in a row: winning 8 titles and losing 11 titles.
Nadal has played the French Open 14 times.  Winning 11 titles, losing 2 titles and withdrawing once from injury (in 2016 - when he won in the first two rounds 6-1 6-1 6-1 & 6-3 6-0 6-3 and then withdrew).

Just curious but would you describe Federer as winning last year at a canter (didn’t drop a set all tournament and broken maybe 3 or 4 times in the whole event)? Is there any indication he is significantly more likely to be troubled this year, given that he just won Stuttgart unlike last year?

JuliusHMarx wrote:I disagree. On grass anyone is more vulnerable to a big server. Cilic, Raonic, Kygios, Del Potro - if they have a great day on serve, they could take out Federer.

Four players who we know aren’t good enough on grass. They are something like a combined 1 win in 20 odd against the big 3 grass courters of this generation and are each poor returners on fast courts. If Fed is fit, then they don’t break his serve and they aren’t winning three tiebreaks against him.

Born Slippy wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:Sadly Federer no longer has the legs for cantering.  If he wins Wimbledon it won't be at a canter.

Federer has played Wimbledon 19 years in a row: winning 8 titles and losing 11 titles.
Nadal has played the French Open 14 times.  Winning 11 titles, losing 2 titles and withdrawing once from injury (in 2016 - when he won in the first two rounds 6-1 6-1 6-1 & 6-3 6-0 6-3 and then withdrew).

Just curious but would you describe Federer as winning last year at a canter (didn’t drop a set all tournament and broken maybe 3 or 4 times in the whole event)? Is there any indication he is significantly more likely to be troubled this year, given that he just won Stuttgart unlike last year?

No and yes. Just because the duck moves serenely across the lake it doesn't mean his little legs are not paddling like the clappers. Federer's management of his season (skipping the clay) is an indicator of how he is trying to martial and maintain every last dreg and ounce of his dwindling physical resources to take advantage of the opportunities open to him given injuries and recovery periods of his serious foes (Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka) with Nadal's apparently no longer a serious threat on the grass (knees) - but there are still plenty of threats from big servers.

Just because an older player decides to skip his weakest part of the season doesn’t mean that those tournaments he does play automatically become life and death at every stage. If anything, he’s probably going to be very fresh at Wimbledon, having based his whole season around it.

Whether you like it or not, a slam when he didn’t drop a set is, self-evidently, a canter. No player was in any way close to challenging him last year. I expect a very similar outcome this year - there is no suggestion any of his competitors have improved sufficiently to bridge that considerable gap.

As you say, the reality is that his “serious” opposition, for various reasons, are not in a position to challenge him. A random “big server” is not going to knock Fed out of Wimbledon.

All it comes down to is that I am not as confident as you are that Federer will win Wimbledon 2018. I would be happy for him if he did but wouldn't be surprised to see him beaten by a returning Raonic, or Wawrinka or a Djokovic or a bit hitter. If he wins I will think it is a "big achievement" for him rather than a "canter". In terms of age - there is an aspect of treading into the unknown. Extrapolating is more risky than interpolating. We can agree to disagree. I will say that in hindsight it could be perceived that Federer won Wimbledon 2017 at a canter -but for me it was a hard worked achievement.

All this can be reduced to a betting odd. In terms of a betting odd I would guess we might be very similar. I would say Federer has a 60% chance of winning Wimbledon. That makes me say he is the clear favorite to lift the title. But that is assuming Federer brings his fight and determination into the tournament. If he is lax and complacent he will be beaten - but I don't expect that to be his attitude.

The two Britons at Queen's today both went out. Looked somewhat raw, as did Shapovalov who looks as if he needs time to adjust to grass.

Favourite yes, but there's no guarantee of Kyrgios beating Murray. If he plays even close to the level of the Federer match, sure, but he can also throw in some stinking performances. However for a prediction Kyrgios in 2 but anything can happen with Kyrgios.

I think Federer is less than 50% to win Wimbledon. He is clearly the favourite, but not in the way Rafa is at the French Open. At his age, fitness is his issue, injury risk. He's only really dominated Wimbledon 2003-2007 and since then no more than occassional success. There are various players capable of beating him on a good day.

H'Bill. Wise words about Fed's chances at Wimbledon. There's no comparison with Rafa at the French where the Spaniard is head and shoulders above everyone else. Can't imagine Rafa having the same trouble at RG that Fed had at SW19 with the likes of Falla, Berdych, Tsonga, Benneteau (two sets down in 2012) and Stakhovsky.
As for today, I see that Murray has echoed what so many have already said; that the first match back is not about winning but just feeling OK. Good line-up at Queen's, with Dimi, Djoko, Murray and Edmund all in action.

Almost a set into his comeback and so far so good for Andy. He leads Nick Kyrgios 5-2 but best of all is he seems to be moving well without hindrance.

Murray leading 6-2 4-4 but looks like the tank is running dry to me. Movement surprisingly good though which is great to see.

I hope Murray doesn't get carried away and over push himself. But this is surprisingly good. If he really can get over his long term hip issue then Murray could once again think about challenging at the top level for titles. There is certainly a space for him given the aging Federer and Nadal and nobody from the younger generation really stepping up.

sirfredperry wrote:H'Bill. Wise words about Fed's chances at Wimbledon. There's no comparison with Rafa at the French where the Spaniard is head and shoulders above everyone else. Can't imagine Rafa having the same trouble at RG that Fed had at SW19 with the likes of Falla, Berdych, Tsonga, Benneteau (two sets down in 2012) and Stakhovsky.
  ...................................

These defeats / very narrow escapes - and all at a time when he was considerably younger than he is today - are clear evidence that Federer’s path to a Wimbledon Final (let alone a title win) can never be taken for granted, or considered anything less than a serious challenge. He could fall to any number of guys, if he has a subpar day and his opponent is on-song.

Rafa on clay at RG is the only true example amongst the Slams of seven successive Bo5 victories being predictably ‘routine’.

Meanwhile, what a fabulous effort by Murray on his return this afternoon.

Could Murray or Wawrinka be drawn against Federer in the first few rounds at Wimbledon?   Murray, as long as he has no hip reaction, could be very dangerous early in the tournament.  I doubt he will have "tournament fitness" to go too far.

Good comeback to competitive tennis for Murray. Krygios not at his best but still a difficult opponent in first match back. As CC says above Andy seemed to run out of steam about mid way through the second set. His serving definitely dropped away then with less good first serves going in and second serve getting easily dealt with. Still he hung in and didn't give up easily.

Have to wait and see how his body responds to a long match but the positive was that apart from what appeared to be a back twinge at the start of the third set (I think) he was moving well and with no discomfort.

All being good I would expect to see him play a couple of exhibition sets at Boodles before Wimbledon then see what the draw brings him.

A very promising comeback match for Andy considering he has not played competitively for a year. Timed the ball very well and hasn't lost the touch. He moved surprisingly well as well. The key to the future will be how he feels tomorrow and whether there is any discomfort in the hip. If not then it is the first barrier he has cleared but many barriers lie ahead. Welcome back Andy.

Djokovic, Raonic, Wawrinka had good wins.  Djokovic winning 6-2 6-1 against Millman,  Raonic 6-1 3-1 against Bhambri (retired), Wawrinka 6-2 6-3 against  Norrie.  Nishikori less convincing with a 6-3 7-6 win against Bachinger.  All these - if they refind top form (having been out with injury) could trouble Federer.  

Also worth noting Coric beats A Zverev 6-1 6-4 in the first round of Halle.

Note Murray is considering skipping Wimbledon - he is rightly reflecting whether Wimbledon might be coming too soon and there might be better ways to get back to match and tournament fitness.  This was in an interview following his narrow loss to Kyrgios at Queens - he also said he will see how well he recovers from that exertion and how well his hip feels.  

Murray has admitted he wasted his time between Wimbledon 2017 and US Open 2017 - he said he never gave his hip a proper chance to rest / recover because he had an idea of competing at the US Open 2017.  So that was bad body management.  After withdrawing from US Open 2017 up to the Australian Open 2018 - he gave his hip more time to rest / recover - but he was still aiming to return for the Australian Open 2018.  His hip didn't respond to the rest as he was hoping.  So he had the "minor" operation on his hip.  It seems that the minor keyhole operation(s) was the way to go.

Saw most of the Murray come-back match. Doubt if he could have asked for a better first match back.
I thought some of his returning was excellent and he seemed to get round the court OK. Understandably rusty and tired at times. Would be good to know how he's feeling now. Bound to be a bit stiff but as long as he's not hurting too much then he'll be happy.
He's said he's uncertain about what to do now. Should he play Eastbourne? What about Wimbledon? Well all will shortly be revealed. I suppose there were fears deep down that he would not even get back to this position (putting up a good fight in a long match) so the Kyrgios match should be seen as a positive.
Elsewhere Fed has a great chance in Halle now that Thiem and A Zverev are out. A couple of cracking matches at Queen's today - Kyrgios v Edmund and Djoko v Dimi.

Fed squeezes thru in final set tiebreak (9-7) in Halle. Paire had two MPs in the tiebreak. Ebden up next for Rog.
Kyrgios ace barrage sees off Edmund at Queen's where a poor service game by Dimi has handed the first set to Djoko 6-4.

Not sure why it was that Paire was able to cause Federer so much trouble (didn’t see the match) - especially as he had lost all eleven sets played against him prior to today’s contest. But the tight win means Fed has the chance to retain his top dog world ranking ahead of Wimbledon.

Horrible performance by Dimitrov who ends his Queens campaign in very meek fashion. You have to question his Wimbledon credentials, based on that second set showing.

Both Wawrinka and Nishikori were well beaten in their second round matches at Queens and Halle respectively. It doesn't look like these two are going to feature well at Wimbledon. I am not sure Wawrinka was ever much of a threat at Wimbledon even when fully fit - so maybe grass is not a good test as to how well Wawrinka is doing in his attempt to return to the top level.

What is "wrong" with Dimitrov? So many people have said he has great potential to be so much better - but is that really the case? Some say he lacks sufficient effort and commitment in training. Maybe he is a bit like Tomic - has reached a certain "work" - life balance that he is happy with. Unwilling to put more effort into his "work" because that will substract from his current lifestyle.

No name Bertie wrote:What is "wrong" with Dimitrov?  So many people have said he has great potential to be so much better - but is that really the case?  Some say he lacks sufficient effort and commitment in training.  Maybe he is a bit like Tomic - has reached a certain "work" - life balance that he is happy with.  Unwilling to put more effort into his "work" because that will substract from his current lifestyle.

Good point- maybe he's happy with his life the way it is. Maybe to get to the very top you have to be driven by a certain dissatisfaction, a sense of wanting more, that what you have is not enough.

Perhaps the comparison for Dimitrov would be Safin - all the talent in the world but rarely if ever maximised, whether because of a lack of commitment or perhaps mentality. Sufficient to be a very good player and make an excellent living from the game but without the fire that burns so brightly in the likes of Nadal or Djokovic to make the most of what they have.

Federer fights past Ebden. Ebden was serving for the second set. TMF no more, but Federer can show shades of yore. Even if Kudla may be a relatively easy opponent, Coric (most likely) is a much tougher opponent for the Halle title.

The Halle court looks like crap, with bad bounces and all and will only get worse. Perhaps the W chaps need to help Halle get better surfaces next year.