European Champions & Voldermort Cups expected Quarter Finalists

Updated as we are almost there
French not having the best year but teams as expected since about round 2

Champs

1st
Sarries 23
Racing 21
Leinster 20
Edinburgh 23
Munster 17

2nd
Glasgow 19
Ulster 18
Toulouse 17
Montpellier16 - out
Exeter 13

Main games next weekend is the winner most likely takes all games
Sarries v Glasgow
Munster v Exeter
Edinburgh v Montpellier

Eng 2 Fra 3 Ire 3 Sco 2 Wal 0, 2 to miss out

Voldermort (he who shall not be mentioned)
1st
Clermont 30
La Rochelle 20
Worcester 17
Sale 17
Quinn's 21

2nd
Connacht 17
Saints 21
Bristol 16
Benetton 20
Ospreys 12 -out

Winner takes all or just important games
Most pools had the big matches in round 5
Main thing to watch is Sale and Connacht on 17. Sale must match Connachts score (pick up 5pts they top the pool)

Eng 5 Fra 2 Ire 1 Ita 1 Wal 1, 2 to miss out most likely Ospreys and one other team (most likely Bennetton)

Total
Eng 7, Fra 5, Ire 4, Ita 1, Sco 2, Wal 1

Top14
Montpellier and Racing group winners
Toulon runners up (Newcastle are really struggling. Edinburgh should have a good go in this group though as Toulon aren't exceptional right now either)

Pro 14
Leinster group winners
Munster and Scarlets runners up

Premiership
Exeter and Saracens group winners

Leinster, Wasps
Exeter
Sarries,
Racing, Scarlets
Montpellier, Toulon

Brendan wrote:Leinster, Wasps
Exeter
Sarries,
Racing, Scarlets
Montpellier, Toulon

Wasps are in dire form. I personally can't see it. Especially when Munster (In Exeter's group) can look forward to Castres who have never give a flying about the HC/CC.

Artful_Dodger wrote:

Brendan wrote:Leinster, Wasps
Exeter
Sarries,
Racing, Scarlets
Montpellier, Toulon

Wasps are in dire form.  I personally can't see it.  Especially when Munster (In Exeter's group) can look forward to Castres who have never give a flying about the HC/CC.

I picked Wasps as I think they will get BPs and not impressed with Bath. Not sure Toulouse will be up to much.  I think Gloucester, Munster, Castre will take to many points off each other.

It was a toss between Munster, Wasps and Glasgow

People rating Racing above Scarlets? Not sure why, although it is a good time to play them with the injuries to key players which they have suffered, not to mention the suspensions.

Why should we have to pick a certain number per league? I only see Leinster as being an option from the O’14. Surely we should just be able to select who we really think will progress?

Cyril wrote:Why should we have to pick a certain number per league? I only see Leinster as being an option from the O’14. Surely we should just be able to select who we really think will progress?

Whereas I am struggling to find a third french side, and I am sure plenty feel 2 is too many from the GP.

I think we’re looking at:
Leinster
Wasps
Exeter
Gloucester
Saracens
Racing
Montpellier
Toulon

Pool 1
Leinster to win the pool with 5 or 6 wins. Bath and Toulouse to offer little thus Wasps as runners up with 3/4 wins.


Pool 2
All teams capable of taking points from each other. Exeter have not delivered in Europe yet but may well top this group with 4 wins. Runners up probably Munster but maybe on just 3 wins.

Pool 3
Saracens to top the group. Glasgow second and quite possibly the best runner up. Lyon & Cardiff no-hopers.

Pool 4
Racing and Scarlets to contest top spot. Leicester and Ulster to look to be strong at home.

Pool 5
Montpelier should top the group. Falcons have a tough start and if they lose both, and if domestic wins are still rare could have given up on this by December and allowing Edinburgh to pip Toulon for second.


Thus my predicted Qualifiers:

Leinster
Exeter
Saracens
Racing
Montpelier

Wasps
Glasgow
Scarlets
Munster*
Edinburgh*




*Unlucky runners up

Cyril wrote:Why should we have to pick a certain number per league? I only see Leinster as being an option from the O’14. Surely we should just be able to select who we really think will progress?

The reason for certain number per league is it means that you are more likely to look at it through more neutral eyes. Barring anomalies we generally have about 2-3 from the Pro14 & Prem while 3 from France (usually Clearmont and Toulon and another). In 50:50 we always go with our leagues teams so end up with people picking 4 from their leagues as certain to make it with a 5th team with an outside chance. And it rarely happens.

mikey_dragon wrote:People rating Racing above Scarlets? Not sure why, although it is a good time to play them with the injuries to key players which they have suffered, not to mention the suspensions.  

Scarlets have lost Bernie who was a turnover machine and Baracaly is another loss. Racing have strengthened and were the only team to be able to front up to Leinster and survive better than most.

From oddschecker, to win the Champions Cup outright:

Leinster 2-1
Saracens 3-1
Montpellier 7-1
Exeter 8-1
Munster 12-1
Racing 12-1
Scarlets 16-1
Toulon 16-1
Wasps 33-1
Glasgow 40-1
Toulouse 40-1
Leicester 40-1
Gloucester 66-1
Castres 66-1
Lyon 75-1
Bath 75-1
Edinburgh 100-1
Cardiff 100-1
Ulster 125-1
Newcastle 125-1

Bookies aren't usually far off, and that makes a lot of sense

Leinster / Sarries / Montpellier look to have the "easiest" routes through the group, I would expect Exeter and Racing to be the other two group winners. After that, Munster / Scarlets / Toulon are probably the best on paper, with Wasps / Glasgow having the easier group route to a runners up spot

Leinster
Exeter
Saracens
Racing
Montpellier

Munster
Scarlets
Glasgow

That would be my guess

Artful_Dodger wrote:From oddschecker, to win the Champions Cup outright:

Leinster 2-1
Saracens 3-1
Montpellier 7-1
Exeter 8-1
Munster 12-1
Racing 12-1
Scarlets 16-1
Toulon 16-1
Wasps 33-1
Glasgow 40-1
Toulouse 40-1
Leicester 40-1
Gloucester 66-1
Castres 66-1
Lyon 75-1
Bath 75-1
Edinburgh 100-1
Cardiff 100-1
Ulster 125-1
Newcastle 125-1

Wonder what the knockout stage odds look like.

Pot Hale wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:From oddschecker, to win the Champions Cup outright:

Leinster 2-1
Saracens 3-1
Montpellier 7-1
Exeter 8-1
Munster 12-1
Racing 12-1
Scarlets 16-1
Toulon 16-1
Wasps 33-1
Glasgow 40-1
Toulouse 40-1
Leicester 40-1
Gloucester 66-1
Castres 66-1
Lyon 75-1
Bath 75-1
Edinburgh 100-1
Cardiff 100-1
Ulster 125-1
Newcastle 125-1

Wonder what the knockout stage odds look like.

Group winner odds below. Don't see any odds on making the knockouts which is obviously a bit different. Individual bookies will give you them but oddschecker which pulls data from all bookies doesn't seem to have.

Pool 1
Leinster 1/3
Toulouse 8/1
Wasps 8/1
Bath 33/1

Pool 2
Exeter evens
Munster 2/1
Gloucester 14/1
Castres 16/1

Pool 3
Saracens 1/5
Glasgow 10/1
Cardiff 28/1
Lyon 33/1

Pool 4
Racing 1.5/1
Scarlets 2/1
Leicester 5/1
Ulster 16/1

Pool 5
Montpellier evens
Toulon 2.5/1
Edinburgh 14/1
Newcastle 33/1

Does anyone know when Toulon's 5 point penalty is to be applied? Do they still have a period of grace where they can comply with the request and the penalty is annulled? I see that it was recently reduced from 3 years to 1 on appeal but there's nothing suggesting it won't still be applied.

I'm assuming their odds don't include it yet.

des wrote:Does anyone know when Toulon's 5 point penalty is to be applied? Do they still have a period of grace where they can comply with the request and the penalty is annulled?  I see that it was recently reduced from 3 years to 1 on appeal but there's nothing suggesting it won't still be applied.

I'm assuming their odds don't include it yet.

I think it's suspended for 3 years (presumably now 1 year) meaning it won't be applied if they behave themselves. That's my understanding but could be wrong.

Cheers, I see that since I bothered looking.

I don't remember seeing it was suspended when it was originally made. The fact Mourad made a petulant comment about not paying the fine or apologising made me think there was no point in suspending it.

Edinburgh's a very LGBT friendly place so hopefully that'll tip him over the edge when they come to visit.

Artful_Dodger wrote:From oddschecker, to win the Champions Cup outright:

Leinster 2-1
Saracens 3-1
Montpellier 7-1
Exeter 8-1
Munster 12-1
Racing 12-1
Scarlets 16-1
Toulon 16-1
Wasps 33-1
Glasgow 40-1
Toulouse 40-1
Leicester 40-1
Gloucester 66-1
Castres 66-1
Lyon 75-1
Bath 75-1
Edinburgh 100-1
Cardiff 100-1
Ulster 125-1
Newcastle 125-1

Racing look a decent bet at 12-1. I do think Leinster will do it again.

Pool 1 - Leinster, Toulouse

Pool 2 - Exeter

Pool 3 - Saracens, Glasgow

Pool 4 - Racing 92, Scarlets

Pool 5 - Montpellier

*Unlucky runners up


The life of an Edinburgh Fan

Glasgow will be very disappointed not to get to the quarter finals.  I don't think they will get much further tho.  Edinburgh would be surprised if they did get to the Qs,

TJ wrote:Glasgow will be very disappointed not to get to the quarter finals.  I don't think they will get much further tho.  Edinburgh would be surprised if they did get to the Qs,

I'd go so far as saying Rennie's future at Glasgow depends on doing one of reaching a European quarter final or a Pro14 Final.

For me:
1- Leinster
2- Exeter, Munster
3- Saracens, Glasgow
4- Scarlets, Racing
5- Montpellier The Luvvies because what's an accumulator without a bit of mystery (and a crap castle).

LondonTiger wrote:Pool 1
Leinster to win the pool with 5 or 6 wins. Bath and Toulouse to offer little thus Wasps as runners up with 3/4 wins.


Pool 2
All teams capable of taking points from each other. Exeter have not delivered in Europe yet but may well top this group with 4 wins. Runners up probably Munster but maybe on just 3 wins.

Pool 3
Saracens to top the group. Glasgow second and quite possibly the best runner up. Lyon & Cardiff no-hopers.

Pool 4
Racing and Scarlets to contest top spot. Leicester and Ulster to look to be strong at home.

Pool 5
Montpelier should top the group. Falcons have a tough start and if they lose both, and if domestic wins are still rare could have given up on this by December and allowing Edinburgh to pip Toulon for second.


Thus my predicted Qualifiers:

Leinster
Exeter
Saracens
Racing
Montpelier

Wasps
Glasgow
Scarlets
Munster*
Edinburgh*




*Unlucky runners up

I still feel Wasps will be better than Bath and Toulouse, but do not now feel they will get one of the best runner up spots. 

Exeter and Munster both to qualify with the match at Thomond deciding who wins the group is the only change I would make after Round 1.

T14
Won 3 out of 6 (2 away 1 home)

Prem
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (2 away 1 home)

Pro14
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (1 away 2 home)

Brendan wrote:T14
Won 3 out of 6 (2 away 1 home)

Prem
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (2 away 1 home)

Pro14
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (1 away 2 home)

Perfect split

lostinwales wrote:

Brendan wrote:T14
Won 3 out of 6 (2 away 1 home)

Prem
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (2 away 1 home)

Pro14
Won 3 drew 1 out of 7 (1 away 2 home)

Perfect split

Yeah, but next week should see a few more interesting battles.

Revised odds from Paddy Power

Leinster 6/4
Saracens 10/3
Montpellier 15/2
Munster 8/1
Racing 92 9/1
Exeter Chiefs 12/1
Scarlets 33/1
Toulouse 33/1
Wasps 50/1
Glasgow Warriors 66/1
Gloucester 66/1
Castres 66/1
Edinburgh 66/1
Toulon 66/1
Newcastle 66/1
Cardiff Blues 66/1
Ulster 100/1
Leicester 100/1
Bath 150/1
Lyon OU 200/1

Toulon at 66/1
Ulster 100/1

Would be worth a fiver for the fun of it.

Pot Hale wrote:Toulon at 66/1
Ulster 100/1

Would be worth a fiver for the fun of it.  

Might stick a fiver on Scarlets now at 33/1 definitely not Toulon or Ulster though.

I have updated the topic with where things are at the moment.

Looks like
T14
Racing
Toulouse
Montpellier- need two wins
Castre - need two wins (possibly BP)

Prem
Sarries
ExeterGlaws - Need two wins (possibly BP)
Newcastle - Need two wins Edinburgh to lose one (maybe) (Bps needed)

Pro14
Glasgow
Leinster
Ulster - Need one win (and a BP maybe)
Munster - win one game, BP, win head to heads
Edinburgh - one win

Updated the heading to show where we are with one week to go.

Congrats to Edinburgh. If they hadn't of butchered their try in the first game they could have been looking at a better spot.

Well done Benetton but look like they won't make it. It's a bit ironic that they will miss out on a quarter final spot because they didn't have a weaker team in their pool.

Clermont get max points while Saints rack up tries to try and avoid the two big French teams.

Scoreline at Northampton rather embarrassing really. Trying to spread the brake is admirable, but results like that never help.

When you are faced with the choice of Worcester or Clermont/la Rochelle I know which one I would rather so can't blame them for racking up the tries as that is what it could come down too. Though if Connacht get 5pts they get best runners up spot.

That saints score was just silly. No one benefits from that.

I played a game in which we lost by 80+ points and I can tell you there is no silver lining to it!

yappysnap wrote:That saints score was just silly. No one benefits from that.

I played a game in which we lost by 80+ points and I can tell you there is no silver lining to it!

It that catch 22 of giving the second tier teams a chance to play against good opposition but also making sure they are good enough. Until there is some development league with 6 or so of the club's they aren't going to improve. Right now you could have 2 Russian teams, two Georgian teams, a Rominian and German team, that would be more beneficial than just sticking them in with no support.

Very true that

That was with a very 2nd string Saints side, only 5 starters that could be considered regulars and one of them (Waller) is struggling to hold his place. Really shows either the massive difference between the respective leagues (Saints are struggling in the AP), or just how good Saints academy is.

WELL-PAST-IT wrote:That was with a very 2nd string Saints side, only 5 starters that could be considered regulars and one of them (Waller) is struggling to hold his place. Really shows either the massive difference between the respective leagues (Saints are struggling in the AP), or just how good Saints academy is.

European Rugby came up with the stupid rule that the two teams who play in the Challange Cup must play each other for one spot and  the wins of the third tier competition get the second spot.  In theory that's a love idea but results in a stronger Russian team losing out every two years. While the Russians aren't amazing they are better than everyone else.

So Bristol also rack up the big score to undo all the tries Saints scored yesterday

So quarterfinals are:

Saracens v Glasgow
Racing v Toulouse
Leinster v Ulster
Edinburgh v Munster

And in the semifinals:

If Saracens win, they get home country semi against Edinburgh or Munster - Ricoh Arena possibly?

If Glasgow win, they play away against either Edinburgh or Munster - Murrayfield or Lansdowne presumably.

If Racing win, they get home country semi against Leinster or Ulster - Not sure which venue would be picked by EPCR?

If Toulouse win, they play away against Leinster or Ulster. Lansdowne or Lansdowne?

Of those, a Toulouse win is the more likely for a possible home semifinal change.

I'd Fancy Sarries, Racing, Leinster and Munster to win those QFs.

Rare to see more than one road team win in a quarter final. Munster appear most likely but any kind of injury to Murrary or POM during the 6N seriously impacts on their chances.

I think Toulouse is the most likely road team to achieve the feat.

The Welsh overachieving as usual then

When do the exact dates for the quarter finals come out?

Maine man wrote:When do the exact dates for the quarter finals come out?

I might be making this up, but I think Glasgow Warrior's social media guy said something about later this week.

Sarries and Leinster look to be the bankers. The other two ties are much harder to predict. I’d say Racing and Munster to win by a narrow margin.

I know it makes all kind of sense to have home sides in the semis (in terms of maximising attendances), but I feel it should go neutral for these ties. The top seeds already have home advantage for the quarters and it goes a long way to deciding who makes the final (home advantage is huge). Still, I guess it really puts the onus on topping your pool.

BamBam wrote:The Welsh overachieving as usual then

Who do you support again, Bedford Blues right?