SIX NATIONS OPENING MATCH - France vs Wales Stade de France - 1st February 2019

First topic message reminder :

France: Maxime Medard; Damian Penaud, Wesley Fofana, Romain Ntamack, Yohann Huget; Camille Lopez, Morgan Parra; Jefferson Poirot, Guilhem Guirado, Uini Atonio; Sébastien Vahaamahina, Paul Willemse, Wenceslas Lauret, Arthur Itturia, Louis Picamoles.

Reps: Julien Marchand, Dany Priso, Demba Bamba, Felix Lambey, Gregory Alldritt, Baptiste Serin, Gael Fickou, Geoffrey Doumayrou.



Wales: Liam Williams; George North, Jonathan Davies, Hadleigh Parkes, Josh Adams; Gareth Anscombe, Tomos Williams; Rob Evans, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis; Adam Beard, Alun Wyn Jones; Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric, Ross Moriarty.

Reps: Elliot Dee, Wyn Jones, Samson Lee, Cory Hill, Aaron Wainwright, Gareth Davies, Dan Biggar, Owen Watkin.

I’d personally prefer to see changes at scrum half and lock. Williams is the most exciting nine in the squad on form. AWJs partner could be any of the lads, all in great form, Beard was before recent injury.

I would be keen to start Ton Fongs the wasps openside and have Jonah Holmes on the bench. The sooner we get them bedded in to serious pressure welsh matches the better, they are both consistently the stand out players in their respective teams

Likewise I would have Dillon Lewis on the bench covering tighthead. He played superbly on the summer tour and has continued that form at the blues.

Interesting rumours about French backs for Friday. Apparently Romain Ntmack and Wesley Fofana are due to start in the centres, lining up outside Parra and Lopez, with Penaud and Huget on the wings. Medard at full back. No place for Basteraud. If this turns out to be true it looks like the French will try to play a wide game to exploit their pace in the centre and on the wings.
Will this be an easier team for Wales to defend against? I think yes if you win the gain line but there could be trouble if Parra gets clean, quick ball.

maestegmafia wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:Good news on the injury front, finally; however I did expect most of the casualty list to be available in time. They’ll either be rusty, or very well rested and raring to go. I still think we should be considering something like; Evans, Owens, Francis, AWJ, Ball or Beard, Hill, Tipuric, Navidi. A lock on the bench including Smith, Dee, Lee, Moriarty or Wainright- not sure who in the backs unless one of them can be Webb.

I think Nicky Smith is injured

He's listed as taking part in full training - he could certainly be a bench option.

sensisball wrote:Interesting rumours about French backs for Friday. Apparently Romain Ntmack and Wesley Fofana are due to start in the centres, lining up outside Parra and Lopez, with Penaud and Huget on the wings. Medard at full back. No place for Basteraud. If this turns out to be true it looks like the French will try to play a wide game to exploit their pace in the centre and on the wings.
Will  this be an easier team for Wales to defend against? I think yes if you win the gain line but there could be trouble if Parra gets clean, quick ball.

On the t'other hand, what will this suspected team be like defensively ?

I'm sure I read Huget was injured...

munkian wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:Good news on the injury front, finally; however I did expect most of the casualty list to be available in time. They’ll either be rusty, or very well rested and raring to go. I still think we should be considering something like; Evans, Owens, Francis, AWJ, Ball or Beard, Hill, Tipuric, Navidi. A lock on the bench including Smith, Dee, Lee, Moriarty or Wainright- not sure who in the backs unless one of them can be Webb.

I think Nicky Smith is injured

He's listed as taking part in full training - he could certainly be a bench option.

That’s great news I didn’t see that...!

munkian wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:Good news on the injury front, finally; however I did expect most of the casualty list to be available in time. They’ll either be rusty, or very well rested and raring to go. I still think we should be considering something like; Evans, Owens, Francis, AWJ, Ball or Beard, Hill, Tipuric, Navidi. A lock on the bench including Smith, Dee, Lee, Moriarty or Wainright- not sure who in the backs unless one of them can be Webb.

I think Nicky Smith is injured

He's listed as taking part in full training - he could certainly be a bench option.

I'd take those announcements with a pinch of salt. At least a few of them are probably wrong. Why help out France by declaring a player unfit if it gives them extra time to analyse/prepare for his replacement (which, of course, relies on the idea that France do any preparation whatsoever, so perhaps a moot point...).

miaow wrote:

munkian wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:Good news on the injury front, finally; however I did expect most of the casualty list to be available in time. They’ll either be rusty, or very well rested and raring to go. I still think we should be considering something like; Evans, Owens, Francis, AWJ, Ball or Beard, Hill, Tipuric, Navidi. A lock on the bench including Smith, Dee, Lee, Moriarty or Wainright- not sure who in the backs unless one of them can be Webb.

I think Nicky Smith is injured

He's listed as taking part in full training - he could certainly be a bench option.

I'd take those announcements with a pinch of salt. At least a few of them are probably wrong. Why help out France by declaring a player unfit if it gives them extra time to analyse/prepare for his replacement (which, of course, relies on the idea that France do any preparation whatsoever, so perhaps a moot point...).

We are announcing the team very late this week. Tomorrow lunchtime from what I remember

All the more reason for the 'everyone is fit' memo. Wouldn't be surprised if Gareth Davies and/or Liam Williams miss out, with another one or two 'failing to recover' in time as well. But who knows.

Even more of an unknown is who France will play. Parra and Lopez is an interesting pairing. Don't watch French rugby, but I don't understand how Machenaud hasn't been picked. Parra was overlooked for so long - think he came back last summer against NZ after not playing for years - so interesting to see they've gone for a club pairing.

Anyway, irrespective of who France put out, Wales need to win the game. Don't have Halfpenny to rely on grinding out a win 3 points at a time. Get 2-3 tries in the first 60 minutes and the result should take care of itself.

The last time Wales scored 3 tries against France was 2002 & they lost...

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:The last time Wales scored 3 tries against France was 2002 & they lost...

None of the players from 2002 are in this squad unfortunately so I guess what you are saying is that Wales can’t or couldn’t conceivably score three tries in Paris.

Despite scoring nearly thirty tries in their last nine unbeaten games that have taken them to 3rd in the international rankings

maestegmafia wrote:

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:The last time Wales scored 3 tries against France was 2002 & they lost...

None of the players from 2002 are in this squad unfortunately so I guess what you are saying is that Wales can’t or couldn’t conceivably score three tries in Paris.

Despite scoring nearly thirty tries in their last nine unbeaten games that have taken them to 3rd in the international rankings

Oh in that case it’s a forgone conclusion Wales by 30

In all seriousness this is a 50/50 game as France are at home & in the 6 Nations home advantage counts for a lot.

The  6 Nations exceptions ironically are both Ireland & England playing in Cardiff.

Interesting stat. Even when Wales have beaten France soundly - 27-6 in 2014 - they haven't managed more than 2 tries. Hmmmm.

Can't argue with home advantage either. Probably being a bit idealistic, and Wales will likely play it safe than try and go for the jugular, but I'd like to see them do what they did to Scotland last year. Just take them apart at the seams, hit them where they're weak, and put points on the board to show for it.

If it's another slugfest, like 2013, or even two years ago, it opens the door for the French flair to nick a win late on.

Agree with that miaow. I think the whole campaign hangs on this first result.
Win & Wales are true contenders. Lose & I think it will be a struggle thereon.

miaow wrote:Interesting stat. Even when Wales have beaten France soundly - 27-6 in 2014 - they haven't managed more than 2 tries. Hmmmm.

Can't argue with home advantage either. Probably being a bit idealistic, and Wales will likely play it safe than try and go for the jugular, but I'd like to see them do what they did to Scotland last year. Just take them apart at the seams, hit them where they're weak, and put points on the board to show for it.

If it's another slugfest, like 2013, or even two years ago, it opens the door for the French flair to nick a win late on.

I don’t see wales going out to entertain this year.

This is about winning games

I don't think it's about entertaining either. I think it's about taking them apart by playing rugby - and a good way of doing that is by moving the ball to Wales' dangerous players.

Wales have been much more disciplined, accurate, and cohesive than France since the RWC semi-final in 2011, and managed to win by simply turning up and grinding out wins, primarily through penalty kicks from French indiscipline. That's changed in the last two years - they obviously lost it late two years ago, and were fortunate last year to sneak the win by a point.

What I'm saying is that 12-18 points isn't going to be enough this time. I'm sick seeing Wales lose a game if the opposition score more than 20 points; that's been the biggest weakness of Gatland's tenure, not adapting to the opposition when they don't control the game, and not putting points on the board when the game/situation demands it through tries.

They can score those tries through rumbling mauls for all I care. But they do need to score a couple on Friday to win the game. I actually think that will happen as well; why wouldn't you get the ball to North (who's only really hitting form since 2013 - I think most people have forgotten how good he can be), possibly Liam Williams and JD2 as well. It doesn't matter who plays for France, Wales have enough to win the game scoring high tempo rugby.

Wales should win with some comfort. But:

Home advantage can be crucial
Wales quite often start the tournament sluggishly
They have to move the big tight forwards around, or they risk being overpowered.


I still expect them to win by at least 9

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:Agree with that miaow. I think the whole campaign hangs on this first result.
Win & Wales are true contenders. Lose & I think it will be a struggle thereon.

After France the next highly ranked teams are playing Wales in Cardiff. Last time Wales lost in Cardiff was November 2017. I would say if Wales walk away from Paris next weekend they have an away game against Italy to sort themselves out then England at home, Scots away and Ireland at home that’s a season that you can turn around.

Should England pull off the a result in Dublin then awales might just use the kick up the backside in Paris to win the championship.

LondonTiger wrote:Wales should win with some comfort. But:

Home advantage can be crucial
Wales quite often start the tournament sluggishly
They have to move the big tight forwards around, or they risk being overpowered.


I still expect them to win by at least 9

Wales thrashed the Scots 34-7 last year while France conceded a lead to Ireland in Paris.

maestegmafia wrote:

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:Agree with that miaow. I think the whole campaign hangs on this first result.
Win & Wales are true contenders. Lose & I think it will be a struggle thereon.

After France the next highly ranked teams are playing Wales in Cardiff. Last time Wales lost in Cardiff was November 2017. I would say if Wales walk away from Paris next weekend they have an away game against Italy to sort themselves out then England at home, Scots away and Ireland at home that’s a season that you can turn around.

Should England pull off the a result in Dublin then awales might just use the kick up the backside in Paris to win the championship.

Those ‘next highly ranked sides’ also have a higher win to loss ratio in Cardiff in the 6 Nations. See comments above.
It’s been a long while since Wales beat England in the 6 Nations even in our awful last year.

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:Agree with that miaow. I think the whole campaign hangs on this first result.
Win & Wales are true contenders. Lose & I think it will be a struggle thereon.

After France the next highly ranked teams are playing Wales in Cardiff. Last time Wales lost in Cardiff was November 2017. I would say if Wales walk away from Paris next weekend they have an away game against Italy to sort themselves out then England at home, Scots away and Ireland at home that’s a season that you can turn around.

Should England pull off the a result in Dublin then awales might just use the kick up the backside in Paris to win the championship.

Those ‘next highly ranked sides’ also have a higher win to loss ratio in Cardiff in the 6 Nations. See comments above.
It’s been a long while since Wales beat England in the 6 Nations even in our awful last year.

Yes you are right and I think we can all agree these are going to be very exciting games

I am sure the threads for those games will be online soon an we will have a great time reading the myriad of interesting posts on that soon

It’s going to be a very exciting six Nations Championship this year for everyone.

Agree that the fixtures are favourable to Wales. Also think we might be falling into the trap of anticipation - trying to examine all the nuances and details to make predictions. Ultimately, Parra/Lopez or Anscombe/Biggar might end up having an absolute shocker from the tee, and that's what decides the game. Or any other number of things might happen.

Ireland have reached the highest level overall post RWC-15. England have looked the most aggressive and effective at the 'raw' elements of the game. Scotland have played the most successfully expansive rugby. France weird, Italy poor with the greenshoots of something positive later down the line.

Wales have slowly built some consistency, but haven't convincingly put away any decent side for a while - dominated a poor Argentina, their thirds beat SA, and then scraped past SA and a poor Aus in the Autumn. The Scotland games show we can bully them, and we're successful when we do that. But we havent seen an 80 minute performance yet from Wales for a while. Showed they can threaten Ireland last season - nearly beating them at the death in Dublin. Same against England in 2016. But it's not quite enough; there shouldn't be the disparity of control to have to comeback in that manner. These games need to be tighter and then won in the last 10 minutes.

The Welsh seconds and thirds lost to the Chiefs in 2016. The first put in decent performances in 2/3 tests against NZ, but clearly were never competitive in the way Ireland have been against them. A few 'newer' places got past the Pacific Islanders - good achievement, but again, not top tier. That new blood might be important though for what comes this calendar year. Failing to beat England in 17 and 18 were bad signs, despite being the 'better' team for much of those games. Managed to do it against Ireland in 17, but lost to Scotland and France that tournament. Not really competitive against Australia and NZ in 2017, useless against Georgia, and scraped it late on after a dominant start against SA. So lacking a 'complete' string of performances, and even a complete 80 minutes as well in the last 3 years.

Basically, I think Wales lack the consistency to do what England and Ireland do. Wales' baseline of brute strength isn't like those two, and they can't go for 80 minutes playing attritional, control-based rugby and win against the better teams in the 6Ns; it only works against Scotland/Italy/France, and it needed mistakes in the final quarter by SA and Aus for that to happen earlier this season. Which is good - Wales are putting themselves in the position where opposition mistakes are so vital that they are turning games. But it's not the kind of agency Schmidt looks for with Ireland.

Which is why the running game is so important, and Wales showed it in Dublin last year. Getting the ball to the fringes, and scoring by drawing the last man in a line is fairly rare, yet Wales managed it twice in the second-half. I think Wales are weaker without Aaron Shingler, a man who can genuinely play 'both' games brilliantly - pacey offloading and tight grunt/lineout. I think we might see Wainwright in that role but it's a big ask. Tipuric should grow into the 7 shirt and make it his own now. Faletau a big loss as his quality and power in the loose/wide is second to none. I also feel like teams have 'worked' Parkes out a bit - analysis of his technique etc., he's being rushed up, shut down, and intercepted a lot more. His strength is in how unexpected his quality is; if he's a key playmaker at 12, it's a weakness for the team, as he's still inexperienced at test level despite his age. Outside Anscombe, then maybe he adds a solidity/crash-ball-with-a-bit-more that Wales need, because Anscombe is prone to playing heads-up rugby that can result in running down blind alleys, but sometimes it comes off.

So even with the fixtures, I don't think Wales have the consistency to mix it for 5 games in a row. I think Wales would need to win all 5 to win it outright - they don't put teams like Italy or France away like Eng/Ire do because they lack the pack to nullify them early on. They won't score the most tries/points overall, so it's about winning every game. As a fan I really hope that happens, because the RWC is a long shot and this Wales team needs to win something again as it's been 6 years.

But it feels unlikely considering the run Wales are on has to be put in the context - and that is who they've played, and in what stage of development they're in as well. Newer players like Hill, Parkes, Adams, Dee, Lewis, Wainwright - these could/should be key members of the 23-30 in Japan, and the next few games could be the making of them. We'll see what they're about anyway - you'd expect one or two to buckle slightly under the pressure, but perhaps some will flourish and raise their game.

Anyway, prediction time: France 21-Wales 19

Wales online seem to think they have seen the team for Paris and it it

Wales (v France)

15. Liam Williams

14. Josh Adams

13. Jonathan Davies

12. Hadleigh Parkes

11. George North

10 Gareth Anscombe

9 Tomos Williams

1 Rob Evans

2 Ken Owens

3 Tomas Francis

4 Adam Beard

5 Alun Wyn Jones (c)

6 Josh Navidi

7 Justin Tipuric

8 Ross Moriarty

Looks good Although take it with a pinch of salt.

Any idea on bench options? Presumably...

16. Dee
17. Wyn Jones (Smith if fit)
18. Samson
19. Hill
20. Wainwright
21. Gareth/Aled
22. Biggar
23. Steff...??? Watkin?

miaow wrote:Looks good Although take it with a pinch of salt.

Any idea on bench options? Presumably...

16. Dee
17. Wyn Jones (Smith if fit)
18. Samson
19. Hill
20. Wainwright
21. Gareth/Aled
22. Biggar
23. Steff...??? Watkin?

If I literally took a pinch of salt for every pinch of salt needed after reading the western mail my diet would be a very unhealthy one.

I read in the article that Hill and Wainwright as well as the front row you mentioned are bench

I presume Davies Biggar are reserve half backs

As for the last back position I’m not sure. Could be a centre, a fullback or Winger

Jonah Holmes
Hallam Amos
Owen Watkins
Steff Evans

L’Equipe ce soir

L'équipe probable contre le pays de Galles


Médard - Penaud, Fofana, Ntamack, Huget - Lopez, Parra - Iturria, Picamoles, Lauret - Willemse, Vahaamahina - Atonio, Guirado (cap), Poirot.

Intéressant n’est pas?

Just watching the Ireland game back from last year. It was closer than I initially rememberd - Ireland very forunate to not have their 2nd try chalked off for a blatant accidental offside.

But also, the timing of points. Think it was a Wales mistake that led to Ireland getting field position so late in the first half - and then scoring 1 minute into the red to take the lead. That was important as Wales had a 5 point lead cut to a 2 points deficit. Then they just dominated possession in the second half. Wales couldn't get it from them. Two fairly 'cheap' tries coming at close range.

But even then. Even after the late penalty concession to take it to a 2 score lead; after they got back to within 3 points, Anscombe's intercepted pass at the end literally gives Wales a 2 man overlap on halfway if the ball goes to hand. Parkes to Shingler - probably wouldn't go the distance, but up to Ireland's 22 at least.

Very fine margins in that game. Likewise against England. Sometimes it's as much about Wales not shooting themselves in the foot/making bad choices to give away field position against better set-piece teams than it is having to carve up a try from nothing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQw0ZRUMWzM

maestegmafia wrote:

miaow wrote:Looks good Although take it with a pinch of salt.

Any idea on bench options? Presumably...

16. Dee
17. Wyn Jones (Smith if fit)
18. Samson
19. Hill
20. Wainwright
21. Gareth/Aled
22. Biggar
23. Steff...??? Watkin?

If I literally took a pinch of salt for every pinch of salt needed after reading the western mail my diet would be a very unhealthy one.

Haha

This French team doesn’t make much sense to me ...
JB clearly goes for speed and skills in the backs even dropping his vice captain and usual defense leader Bastareaud. But at the time he picks his slowest scrum half and 2 big old school and not so skilled lumps in the forwards (Kiwi and saffer Atonio and Willemse) who clearly do not belong to the future. He clearly must know something I don’t !

I assume that team is off Drunken Delme again. If it is, he’s always right according to Simon Thomas, much to the annoyance of Warren Gatland.

Whocares
I agree that Atonio is often a penalty magnet(in the scrum and at the breakdown) but Willemse is more skilled than you give him credit for. Parra isn't the best breaking 9 available but given good ball he generally makes good decisions and his ability to thread a wide ball to fast outside backs is second to none.
The question is will the skilful and quick midfield with the ability to put their wingers into space make up for the loss of defensive power by not picking Basteraud ?(assuming the selection rumours are correct).If it is a midfield of NtaMack and Fofana it is a balsy call from Jacques Brunel.

If having no Bastareaud is a worry, having no fast flanker like Macalou or Camara to fill the gaps in defense makes things even worst. For me
Lauret and specially Picamoles are both players of the past.

Wales are due to name their squad at 11am and then a press conference will take place at 12:30pm.

maestegmafia wrote:L’Equipe ce soir

L'équipe probable contre le pays de Galles


Médard - Penaud, Fofana, Ntamack, Huget - Lopez, Parra - Iturria, Picamoles, Lauret - Willemse, Vahaamahina - Atonio, Guirado (cap), Poirot.

Intéressant n’est pas?

That was right then.

Sol Bamba on the bench for France?

It's the u20s tighthead from last year, was an utter animal at that level

BamBam wrote:It's the u20s tighthead from last year, was an utter animal at that level

He'll be off and on with various HIAs then

Did he have a few? Can't remember tbh

BamBam wrote:Did he have a few? Can't remember tbh

More a comment on the tactics of the French medics.

RiscaGame wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:L’Equipe ce soir

L'équipe probable contre le pays de Galles


Médard - Penaud, Fofana, Ntamack, Huget - Lopez, Parra - Iturria, Picamoles, Lauret - Willemse, Vahaamahina - Atonio, Guirado (cap), Poirot.

Intéressant n’est pas?

That was right then.

Sol Bamba on the bench for France?

Yes

That’s an exciting back line. They won’t miss any chances.

Be interesting to see if the welsh team is as predicted by WOL or if they make changes accordingly

maestegmafia wrote:

RiscaGame wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:L’Equipe ce soir

L'équipe probable contre le pays de Galles


Médard - Penaud, Fofana, Ntamack, Huget - Lopez, Parra - Iturria, Picamoles, Lauret - Willemse, Vahaamahina - Atonio, Guirado (cap), Poirot.

Intéressant n’est pas?

That was right then.

Sol Bamba on the bench for France?

Yes

That’s an exciting back line. They won’t miss any chances.

Be interesting to see if the welsh team is as predicted by WOL or if they make changes accordingly

Their attack will certainly be better than their defence.

I can't see us deviating from what was in WOL. Delme might be responsible for a fair bit of WOL's clickbait output, but he must definitely have inside sources.

I don’t think we need to vary it that much what they claim will be the side is strong defensively and and a good counter attacking back line too.

maestegmafia wrote:I don’t think we need to vary it that much what they claim will be the side is strong defensively and and a good counter attacking back line too.

I'm happy with it though I'd start Wainwright and have Moriarty on the bench.

munkian wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:I don’t think we need to vary it that much what they claim will be the side is strong defensively and and a good counter attacking back line too.

I'm happy with it though I'd start Wainwright and have Moriarty on the bench.

With nalvidi at 8?

Interesting thought and not a bad one too.

I think we might see Ball added in the second row for extra grunt at the scrum and if that’s the case I imagine they would keep a big lump like Moriarty in the team at eight too.

Tomos Williams is going to be up against a very good player in Parra but I think he is up to the challenge.

maestegmafia wrote:

munkian wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:I don’t think we need to vary it that much what they claim will be the side is strong defensively and and a good counter attacking back line too.

I'm happy with it though I'd start Wainwright and have Moriarty on the bench.

With nalvidi at 8?

Interesting thought and not a bad one too.

I think we might see Ball added in the second row for extra grunt at the scrum and if that’s the case I imagine they would keep a big lump like Moriarty in the team at eight too.

Tomos Williams is going to be up against a very good player in Parra but I think he is up to the challenge.

Yup, Navidi at 8.

Beard over Ball to for me to help combat their driving maul but neither is a bad option.

I've not seen a single French fan happy with Para starting, I have every hope in Williams doing well.

munkian wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

munkian wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:I don’t think we need to vary it that much what they claim will be the side is strong defensively and and a good counter attacking back line too.

I'm happy with it though I'd start Wainwright and have Moriarty on the bench.

With nalvidi at 8?

Interesting thought and not a bad one too.

I think we might see Ball added in the second row for extra grunt at the scrum and if that’s the case I imagine they would keep a big lump like Moriarty in the team at eight too.

Tomos Williams is going to be up against a very good player in Parra but I think he is up to the challenge.

Yup, Navidi at 8.

Beard over Ball to for me to help combat their driving maul but neither is a bad option.

I've not seen a single French fan happy with Para starting, I have every hope in Williams doing well.

Might be a case of wanting an experienced head in the halfbacks decision

BamBam wrote:It's the u20s tighthead from last year, was an utter animal at that level

Weren't they shunting the Baby Blacks around in the scrums?

Demba Bamba isn't it?