Wales v England thread (6 Nations)

[mikey_dragon]

First topic message reminder :

Date: 23rd Feb 2019
Time: 9:45 am (Mountain Time)
Venue: MILLENIUM Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)


Teams:

Wales: Wales: Liam Williams (Saracens); George North (Ospreys), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Hadleigh Parkes (Scarlets), Josh Adams (Worcester); Gareth Anscombe (Cardiff Blues), Gareth Davies (Scarlets); Rob Evans (Scarlets), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter), Cory Hill (Dragons), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys, captain), Josh Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Ross Moriarty (Dragons).

Replacements: Elliot Dee (Dragons), Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Dillon Lewis (Cardiff Blues), Adam Beard (Ospreys), Aaron Wainwright (Dragons), Aled Davies (Ospreys), Dan Biggar (Northampton), Owen Watkin (Ospreys).


England: Daly; Nowell, Slade, Tuilagi, May; Farrell, Youngs; Moon, George, Sinckler, Lawes, Kruis, Wilson, Curry, B Vunipola.

Replacements: Cowan-Dickie, Genge, Williams, Launchbury, Shields, Robson, Ford, Cokanasiga.

ANY personal attacks will be a ban. No warnings.

[munkian]

I think Wales will probably be able to keep the score down. However, as an England fan, I would be disappointed not to win by 10+.

Hope it’s a good game too

[El Radar]

I think people are getting a bit hung up on how the first two games have gone personally. Kicking into space isn't England's tactic. It's one tactic England have based on the circumstances. Wales defending these kicks well isn't going to mean England have no threat.

There are strong carrying options all over the park, and players which attract multiple defenders. The combination of this and the kick threat will create overlaps, the same type Farrell spotted and exploited for the first try against Ireland.

I agree

England have made some superb passes, particularly for their first try of the championship. They know how to break down defences and their entire team are excellent at capitalising on them. In contrast so far wales have crossed the opposition try line or broken the gain line and capitalised with anywhere near that level of efficiency.

England’s set piece has been near faultless and wales line out has been a weakness. It sure could be a tough afternoon for wale if they don’t tidy up their game before Saturday.

One saving grace for Wales in that regard is the absence of Itoje, I think it might have been his debut when he wrecked the Welsh lineout all game.

[No 7&1/2]

Opposition lineout is not an area where England have been too challenging so far. Be interesting.to see the line-up of the pack but presumably it'll be the same so up to Kruis Lawes and Borthwick to have come up with something in the fallow week.

[maestegmafia]

I think people are getting a bit hung up on how the first two games have gone personally. Kicking into space isn't England's tactic. It's one tactic England have based on the circumstances. Wales defending these kicks well isn't going to mean England have no threat.

There are strong carrying options all over the park, and players which attract multiple defenders. The combination of this and the kick threat will create overlaps, the same type Farrell spotted and exploited for the first try against Ireland.

I agree

England have made some superb passes, particularly for their first try of the championship. They know how to break down defences and their entire team are excellent at capitalising on them. In contrast so far wales have crossed the opposition try line or broken the gain line and capitalised with anywhere near that level of efficiency.

England’s set piece has been near faultless and wales line out has been a weakness. It sure could be a tough afternoon for wale if they don’t tidy up their game before Saturday.

One saving grace for Wales in that regard is the absence of Itoje, I think it might have been his debut when he wrecked the Welsh lineout all game.

I was at the game, first lineout he took the ball out of our jumpers hand. Amazing feat. Lawes and Kruise are very capable too. We had a very solid lineout but these last two games it hasn’t gone well.

[robbo277]

Interesting article: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2019/02/18/wales-30-england-3-2013-six-nations-thrashing-six-years-ago/

Wales leaving Halfpenny back and pushing their wings up against England 6 years ago but England lacked the execution to punish them, despite trying a few kicks in behind. Play has obviously moved on since then, but not as much as we may have believed.

If, like this article does, we use that game as a template, with Farrell and Youngs having developed so much from that game, England's pack now bursting with powerful carriers, Wales less likely to have the scrum dominance and world class players Halfpenny, Warburton and Faletau not in the Welsh ranks this weekend, all these things close what was a substantial gap back then.

[lostinwales]

I think people are getting a bit hung up on how the first two games have gone personally. Kicking into space isn't England's tactic. It's one tactic England have based on the circumstances. Wales defending these kicks well isn't going to mean England have no threat.

There are strong carrying options all over the park, and players which attract multiple defenders. The combination of this and the kick threat will create overlaps, the same type Farrell spotted and exploited for the first try against Ireland.

I agree

England have made some superb passes, particularly for their first try of the championship. They know how to break down defences and their entire team are excellent at capitalising on them. In contrast so far wales have crossed the opposition try line or broken the gain line and capitalised with anywhere near that level of efficiency.

England’s set piece has been near faultless and wales line out has been a weakness. It sure could be a tough afternoon for wale if they don’t tidy up their game before Saturday.

One saving grace for Wales in that regard is the absence of Itoje, I think it might have been his debut when he wrecked the Welsh lineout all game.

I was at the game, first lineout he took the ball out of our jumpers hand. Amazing feat. Lawes and Kruise are very capable too. We had a very solid lineout but these last two games it hasn’t gone well.

Was that the game where they showed him out jumping AWJ when AWJ had lifters and he didn't? A pain in the arse wind up merchant he may be but Itoje is some athlete

[maestegmafia]

Considering the respect Tom Young has from England’s players would it be an idea to put him at seven this weekend?

Maybe Tipuric to blindside and Navidi to the bench as an impact player...?

[Ricardo74]

Considering the respect Tom Young has from England’s players would it be an idea to put him at seven this weekend?

Maybe Tipuric to blindside and Navidi to the bench as an impact player...?

I read that as Tom Youngs, brother of Ben, and got highly confused!

As a Wasps fan, having watched Thomas Young in the prem regularly, I'd be happier seeing his name left off the team sheet from an England perspective!

[LondonTiger]

Thomas Young is a very good player, but I reckon he will be playing in black and yellow this weekend.

[maestegmafia]

Considering the respect Tom Young has from England’s players would it be an idea to put him at seven this weekend?

Maybe Tipuric to blindside and Navidi to the bench as an impact player...?

I read that as Tom Youngs, brother of Ben, and got highly confused!

As a Wasps fan, having watched Thomas Young in the prem regularly, I'd be happier seeing his name left off the team sheet from an England perspective!

My thoughts exactly. Wales are lucky to have some great openside options. Pretty hard to fathom any of them not making the team.

We could also realistically field Navidi, Tips and Thomas Young with Moriarty as a later game entrant. Rather harsh on Wainwright who is also a talented lad.

[BamBam]

Navidi, Tips and Young would be great at the breakdown, but would leave you heavily reliant on the front 5 for carrying, especially in the tight

[maestegmafia]

Navidi, Tips and Young would be great at the breakdown, but would leave you heavily reliant on the front 5 for carrying, especially in the tight

Only if you looking for contact. I imagine considering the size of the English front five, we will try to move the ball like we did vs the french.

[No 7&1/2]

Fitness wise we're pretty well set. There may be some size in the England front five but all very mobile bar Kruis. Moon would slow us down but Genge less so. They all pale a little compared to vunipola however.

[BamBam]

Yeah this definitely is not an immobile front 5 we'll be putting out, I'd go as far to say that Lawes is probably the best overall package in terms of size and athleticism in either pack, Sinckler and George are definitely modern front rowers while Genge would be of the same mould

[SecretFly]

Save all your energy for the final quarter... both sides. I have a feeling Gats will have his team primed to try and reel back in England in the second half of the second half when England might be mentally switching off. So if England aren't far enough ahead, the Welsh will be running wild from all angles and keeping that ball in play as much as possble.
Intriguing game of course because it's kinda clear that England do most of their scoring and psychological damage in the first half, whilst Wales have traditionally and still are come back kings in rampant second halves.

[Luckless Pedestrian]

What I'm really looking forward to on Saturday is people waving at themselves on the big screen during the anthems.

[maestegmafia]

What I'm really looking forward to on Saturday is people waving at themselves on the big screen during the anthems.

Aye and it’s great to see the huge extension made to disabled area, wonderful news

[Luckless Pedestrian]

Sorry Maes, I was kidding - it really annoys me. I should have used an emoji!

[lostinwales]

Fitness wise we're pretty well set. There may be some size in the England front five but all very mobile bar Kruis. Moon would slow us down but Genge less so. They all pale a little compared to vunipola however.

Yeah I do have sympathy with the idea of restricting subs to encourage players to focus more on fitness than bulk, but Billy regularly does the full 80 minutes

[munkian]

I think he means Mako - he is/was easily your best forward.

[maestegmafia]

Sorry Maes, I was kidding - it really annoys me. I should have used an emoji!

If people weren’t enjoying themselves they wouldn’t go, the unions would collapse and the game would go back to an amateur sport..!

I think you would have liked the amateur game, a lot less wavers

[No 7&1/2]

Yes i meant that we miss Makos work rate and general class in the loose will be missed. He does go against the idea that big guys can't last the full 80 as well though. Immense work rate and stamina.

[LondonTiger]

Sorry Maes, I was kidding - it really annoys me. I should have used an emoji!

Not sure we have a person wearing a daffodil hat emoji.

[Guest]

England are playing a game that current stats don't measure well.

See, this is what I don't understand. Why are you trying to justify this? The stats are the stats - they tell exactly what happened. They never give the whole picture, and need to be viewed in context, but that's just a bizarrre statement.

I don't think anyone is claiming that England's lack of running metres is a sign of a blunt attack, or doesn't indicate the game they're playing with kicks. It does precisely that.

The most pertinent statistic to come out alongside the 'dominant tackles' stat is the fact that England missed a high number of tackles in both games so far and conceded a very high number of linebreaks against France. That should be heartening for Wales - and England are probably working on tidying that up without losing their aggressive, targeted blitz.

[Guest]

Save all your energy for the final quarter... both sides.  I have a feeling Gats will have his team primed to try and reel back in England in the second half of the second half when England might be mentally switching off.

This is literally one of the key foundations of 'Gatlandball'. Not sure why more posters don't realise that. Difficult against England though, Wales lost their heads in 2017 when they started running out of steam and realised England still had enough power to keep coming back in the final 10 minutes.

[LondonTiger]

The most pertinent statistic to come out alongside the 'dominant tackles' stat is the fact that England missed a high number of tackles in both games so far and conceded a very high number of linebreaks against France. That should be heartening for Wales - and England are probably working on tidying that up without losing their aggressive, targeted blitz.

 even then though we are not seeing the whole story. Where the line breaks occur is more important than just how many there are. A line break inside your own 22 usually leads to bugger all, a line break in the opposition half however is a different matter.

Where you miss tackles and the effect of missing that tackle is never viewed in the stats.


Now I am not saying that the coaches and players will not be looking at this, but it will be more a case of looking at each one and deciding if anything needs to change.

[No 7&1/2]

The England missed tackle stat has been put into context enough over the last 3 years and over the last 4 week's.

[Luckless Pedestrian]

Sorry Maes, I was kidding - it really annoys me. I should have used an emoji!

If people weren’t enjoying themselves they wouldn’t go, the unions would collapse and the game would go back to an amateur sport..!

Oh the people who enjoy themselves enjoy themselves, no question.

[Rugby Fan]

Picture of LCD and Nowell together as kids in this video clip at the 2:35 mark.

[munkian]

The most pertinent statistic to come out alongside the 'dominant tackles' stat is the fact that England missed a high number of tackles in both games so far and conceded a very high number of linebreaks against France. That should be heartening for Wales - and England are probably working on tidying that up without losing their aggressive, targeted blitz.

 even then though we are not seeing the whole story. Where the line breaks occur is more important than just how many there are. A line break inside your own 22 usually leads to bugger all, a line break in the opposition half however is a different matter.

Where you miss tackles and the effect of missing that tackle is never viewed in the stats.


Now I am not saying that the coaches and players will not be looking at this, but it will be more a case of looking at each one and deciding if anything needs to change.

The Young replacement 9 that came on seemed to cause a bit of havoc with England's defence, a well organised team would have capitalised on that.

Tomos Williams on the bench for me

[LordDowlais]

I have no problem with people waving at cameras, warring daffodil hats or pink cowboy hats, I have no problem with people warring fancy dress, infact I have no problem with people enjoying themselves what so ever.

They pay their money, they are entitled to enjoy it how they please.

I was however at an international game for the 6N in 2005 and whilst singing the national anthem I had to stop and tell the person sitting next to me to behave as he was mocking either me, or others around him whilst we were singing it.

That is a step to far.

[Guest]

Tbf Dupont is an incredible player. If well managed has the potential to be one of the best 9s in the world - but imagine we'll see him stagnate in 2-3 years time and never go on to fill that promise. Such is the French system.

Tomos Williams doesn't have Gareth Davies' experience but he looks to have a more all round game. I'd start him and have Gareth coming off the bench.

[Pie]

News reports suggests we ought to just hand Webb Ellis over to England now such is the ,ahem, confidence.

A few months ago - and for the last 4 years - it would have been NZ who were favorites, then briefly Ireland were the next best thing and now England so I suggest those pundits that think RWC is a done deal take note.

[Luckless Pedestrian]

I have no problem with people waving at cameras, warring daffodil hats or pink cowboy hats, I have no problem with people warring fancy dress, infact I have no problem with people enjoying themselves what so ever.

They pay their money, they are entitled to enjoy it how they please.

That's fair enough, but when I tune in for a Test match, it's not the crowd gawping at themselves on a big screen that I'm tuning in to see.

Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather see the players singing the anthem than random people in the crowd.

[LondonTiger]

News reports suggests we ought to just hand Webb Ellis over to England now such is the ,ahem, confidence.

A few months ago - and for the last 4 years - it would have been NZ who were favorites, then briefly Ireland were the next best thing and now England so I suggest those pundits that think RWC is a done deal take note.

Nice exaggeration.

[mikey_dragon]

No Mako or Maro is great news for us, but their replacements look pretty good so I’m not sure if it’s really that helpful. No Cuthbert for us is a massive boost too, as I think we can all admit that he was the reason we lost in 2017.

[LondonTiger]

No Mako or Maro is great news for us, but their replacements look pretty good so I’m not sure if it’s really that helpful. No Cuthbert for us is a massive boost too, as I think we can all admit that he was the reason we lost in 2017.

There was a lot of skill from England to score that try, which does tend to be forgotten. True, Cuthbert could have been better in defence, but his defence merely compounded the first error from JD2.

[lostinwales]

Talk of Itoje being fit, but I suspect if anything it's the kind of thing Eddie likes to push so as to keep attention away from the team that is going to play.

[Guest]

The 2017 game was probably one of Cuthbert's best performances for Wales that didn't involve his running skills. His general play in defence, chasing and defending high balls and restarts, and making himself a nuisance at rucks were all far better than his usual standard. Just poor awareness for the try - should have gone for Daly earlier as he was too far away from covering the inside. Obviously he wasn't the reason Wales lost.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Itoje play. Likewise 1/2P and Biggar.

[robbo277]

England are playing a game that current stats don't measure well.

See, this is what I don't understand. Why are you trying to justify this? The stats are the stats - they tell exactly what happened. They never give the whole picture, and need to be viewed in context, but that's just a bizarrre statement.

I don't think anyone is claiming that England's lack of running metres is a sign of a blunt attack, or doesn't indicate the game they're playing with kicks. It does precisely that.

The most pertinent statistic to come out alongside the 'dominant tackles' stat is the fact that England missed a high number of tackles in both games so far and conceded a very high number of linebreaks against France. That should be heartening for Wales - and England are probably working on tidying that up without losing their aggressive, targeted blitz.

The point that the current stats don't measure England's game is fair. We can explain it away, but surely the fact that we need to add such an explanation is proof that the statistics aren't broad enough?

Imagine if say in the NFL they only tracked running yards and not passing yards. The stats would be what they would be and you could say "Team A has more running yards but Team B passes more" and that would be decent narrative around the stats, but you'd be entitled to say "why aren't they tracking passing yards"?

I'm not saying opta should jump onto this straight away, but if the trend continues and more teams pick it up it would be a worthwhile analysis to see how many yards were gained by regathered kicks. At current the stats basically track the number of kicks, and that's it. They don't track how many kicks were contestable, how many contests were won/lost or as suggested how many yards were gained on regathered kicks. If Eddie is right and "this is how the game is going", then more breadth on kicking statistics would be useful for analysis.

[robbo277]

The most pertinent statistic to come out alongside the 'dominant tackles' stat is the fact that England missed a high number of tackles in both games so far and conceded a very high number of linebreaks against France. That should be heartening for Wales - and England are probably working on tidying that up without losing their aggressive, targeted blitz.

 even then though we are not seeing the whole story. Where the line breaks occur is more important than just how many there are. A line break inside your own 22 usually leads to bugger all, a line break in the opposition half however is a different matter.

Where you miss tackles and the effect of missing that tackle is never viewed in the stats.


Now I am not saying that the coaches and players will not be looking at this, but it will be more a case of looking at each one and deciding if anything needs to change.

The Young replacement 9 that came on seemed to cause a bit of havoc with England's defence, a well organised team would have capitalised on that.

Tomos Williams  on the bench for me

Might be a reason Robson didn't come on against Ireland? I imagine if the game is in the balance, we won't see Youngs brought off unless he's injured.

[robbo277]

Talk of Itoje being fit, but I suspect if anything it's the kind of thing Eddie likes to push so as to keep attention away from the team that is going to play.

He trained with the squad last week but hasn't been called in for training this week. I'd be very surprised to see him play. I assume he and Hartley were on light training programmes last week just to get them in and keep in contact with the coaches and the camp for any new ideas, but this week they've been sent back to their clubs as it will be more distracting to have players rehabbing on game week.

[BamBam]

This was so good I debated starting another thread, but given all the talk about England's kicking game, if Farrell / Slade / Youngs / Daly manage to kick 50% as well as this we'll win by 50 

https://twitter.com/t2rugby/status/1097545851214417922?s=21

[maestegmafia]

Talk of Itoje being fit, but I suspect if anything it's the kind of thing Eddie likes to push so as to keep attention away from the team that is going to play.

He trained with the squad last week but hasn't been called in for training this week. I'd be very surprised to see him play. I assume he and Hartley were on light training programmes last week just to get them in and keep in contact with the coaches and the camp for any new ideas, but this week they've been sent back to their clubs as it will be more distracting to have players rehabbing on game week.

I can’t imagine any coach will be risking the fitness of key players this season with the RWC coming up.

[robbo277]

Talk of Itoje being fit, but I suspect if anything it's the kind of thing Eddie likes to push so as to keep attention away from the team that is going to play.

He trained with the squad last week but hasn't been called in for training this week. I'd be very surprised to see him play. I assume he and Hartley were on light training programmes last week just to get them in and keep in contact with the coaches and the camp for any new ideas, but this week they've been sent back to their clubs as it will be more distracting to have players rehabbing on game week.

I can’t imagine any coach will be risking the fitness of key players this season with the RWC coming up.

Quite. He's not in the training squad. No way he gets picked this week.

[Cyril]

Looking back to the game in Cardiff two years ago that last kick by Davies may prey on some minds. Cuthbert tends to get blamed, but it was a shocker by Davies. Punished by pinpoint passes by Ford and Farrell, but you have to wonder why Davies a) took the kick? and b) what was he thinking? Also, Biggar blames Cuthbert, but the big lunk was never going to catch any speedster, let alone Daly. You would think that on the other wing North would fare little better.

Food for thought, especially given England’s greater variety (and even greater pace) these days.

[Guest]

1. Cuthbert's quicker than North and I'd say probably Daly as well
2. Davies took the kick because Biggar was at the bottom of the ruck - poor decision by 9 not to go through another phase first, as well as the kick itself
3. Wales should have been out of sight around 65 minutes. The chances were there to have scored 3 tries by than stage based on dominance. Didn't take them, England got back within 2, and the pressure saw Wales crumble.

[Guest]

Cuthbert pace:

https://youtu.be/Sp_xWUniMKI?t=12

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-lXABKUVw0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-nak5zOMTk

[Scottrf]

Just about got past a back-pedalling Mike Brown so now he’s faster than Daly?

[Guest]

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