Political round up.............

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I heard this morning that Steve Baker is considering running for the leadership, which is highly amusing, and almost as funny as people saying that Dominic Raab is the man for the job.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:We're headed for a general election. This parliament's had it.

I highly doubt it. At least not for another year or two.

Why would the Tories support a GE now when they're polling third, and a new analysis from Matthew Goodwin reckons that several senior Tories - like Boris Johnson, Amber Rudd and Zac Goldsmith - would lose their seats at the next GE at the expense of the Brexit Party? It would be madness, particularly as May's failed gamble in 2017 is very recent history.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I heard this morning that Steve Baker is considering running for the leadership, which is highly amusing, and almost as funny as people saying that Dominic Raab is the man for the job.

Terrible, isn't it? They seriously think either of them are up to it? The standard of our politicians (almost all of them) is shockingly bad. No marks, the lot of them. Where's Cromwell?

You think its bad in Westminster! You should see the utter numpties we have in Holyrood.

Imagine Westminster is the high school of politics, well Holyrood is the nursery where idiots who are not even capable to be in Westminster ply thier trade!

tigertattie wrote:You think its bad in Westminster! You should see the utter numpties we have in Holyrood.

Imagine Westminster is the high school of politics, well Holyrood is the nursery where idiots who are not even capable to be in Westminster ply thier trade!

It is strange, because Sturgeon has a reasonable reputation down South. I had a couple of days up in Glasgow last week and my Scottish colleagues left me in no doubt of their opinion on her performance.

lostinwales wrote:

tigertattie wrote:You think its bad in Westminster! You should see the utter numpties we have in Holyrood.

Imagine Westminster is the high school of politics, well Holyrood is the nursery where idiots who are not even capable to be in Westminster ply thier trade!

It is strange, because Sturgeon has a reasonable reputation down South. I had a couple of days up in Glasgow last week and my Scottish colleagues left me in no doubt of their opinion on her performance.

One of the SNP’s biggest failings is freezing council tax for so many years. Local councils are running out of money and its had a real effect on local communities. Cenralising the Police was a bad move aswell.

Sturgeon does well with the press, and throughout this whole brexit debacle she’s been a shining light, but the SNP gave themself an easy out to just blame Westminster for everything wrong while simultaneously not using the powers devolved to them. She wasnt a great Health minister either.

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:We're headed for a general election. This parliament's had it.

I highly doubt it. At least not for another year or two.

Why would the Tories support a GE now when they're polling third, and a new analysis from Matthew Goodwin reckons that several senior Tories - like Boris Johnson, Amber Rudd and Zac Goldsmith - would lose their seats at the next GE at the expense of the Brexit Party? It would be madness, particularly as May's failed gamble in 2017 is very recent history.

Because they won't be able to get a deal through the Commons.

tigertattie wrote:You think its bad in Westminster! You should see the utter numpties we have in Holyrood.

Imagine Westminster is the high school of politics, well Holyrood is the nursery where idiots who are not even capable to be in Westminster ply thier trade!

Don't let caledoniancraig see you saying things like that....


I just looked at this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48395611

Christ. We're f****d.

Stewart and Rudd should stay out of it for now - not their time.
Priti Patel??? Seriously?
Raab?
Javid?
Hancock? Lightweight and wrong time for any Remainer.
Gove and Hunt - compromised for various deeds in the past.
Johnson?
Truss? Dunno.
McVey and Mordaunt? Dunno, but at least I could have a secret crush on the PM if Mordaunt.
Leadsom? Has the gravitas etc. Might be best bet now.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:We're headed for a general election. This parliament's had it.

I highly doubt it. At least not for another year or two.

Why would the Tories support a GE now when they're polling third, and a new analysis from Matthew Goodwin reckons that several senior Tories - like Boris Johnson, Amber Rudd and Zac Goldsmith - would lose their seats at the next GE at the expense of the Brexit Party? It would be madness, particularly as May's failed gamble in 2017 is very recent history.

Because they won't be able to get a deal through the Commons.

A withdrawal agreement for leaving the EU? I agree, hence why I think we'll leave with no deal.

But if they call a General Election for this year, they'll likely be cast into opposition, and it may be a defeat from which they will never recover.

navyblueshorts wrote:

tigertattie wrote:You think its bad in Westminster! You should see the utter numpties we have in Holyrood.

Imagine Westminster is the high school of politics, well Holyrood is the nursery where idiots who are not even capable to be in Westminster ply thier trade!

Don't let caledoniancraig see you saying things like that....


I just looked at this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48395611

Christ. We're f****d.

Stewart and Rudd should stay out of it for now - not their time.
Priti Patel??? Seriously?
Raab?
Javid?
Hancock? Lightweight and wrong time for any Remainer.
Gove and Hunt - compromised for various deeds in the past.
Johnson?
Truss? Dunno.
McVey and Mordaunt? Dunno, but at least I could have a secret crush on the PM if Mordaunt.
Leadsom? Has the gravitas etc. Might be best bet now.

I think it'll be Gove or Stewart, personally. Gove is obviously running as he's been working on establishing a campaign team behind the scenes, though he hasn't confirmed it yet. Javid's a maybe if he runs, as is Patel.

Boris will be attacked from all sides and I think he'll drop out again. Ditto Leadsom. Rudd is on course to lose her seat at the next GE. Can't really say about Raab; I think he has the most MPs currently supporting him, but I'm unsure how popular he is with the grassroots.

Stewart at 25/1.

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:We're headed for a general election. This parliament's had it.

I highly doubt it. At least not for another year or two.

Why would the Tories support a GE now when they're polling third, and a new analysis from Matthew Goodwin reckons that several senior Tories - like Boris Johnson, Amber Rudd and Zac Goldsmith - would lose their seats at the next GE at the expense of the Brexit Party? It would be madness, particularly as May's failed gamble in 2017 is very recent history.

Because they won't be able to get a deal through the Commons.

A withdrawal agreement for leaving the EU? I agree, hence why I think we'll leave with no deal.

But if they call a General Election for this year, they'll likely be cast into opposition, and it may be a defeat from which they will never recover.

No deal is a bluff from Johnson (or whoever) just as it was from May. Parliament wouldn't stand for it even if they were serious.

(Yes, I know no deal is the default.)

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

tigertattie wrote:You think its bad in Westminster! You should see the utter numpties we have in Holyrood.

Imagine Westminster is the high school of politics, well Holyrood is the nursery where idiots who are not even capable to be in Westminster ply thier trade!

Don't let caledoniancraig see you saying things like that....


I just looked at this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48395611

Christ. We're f****d.

Stewart and Rudd should stay out of it for now - not their time.
Priti Patel??? Seriously?
Raab?
Javid?
Hancock? Lightweight and wrong time for any Remainer.
Gove and Hunt - compromised for various deeds in the past.
Johnson?
Truss? Dunno.
McVey and Mordaunt? Dunno, but at least I could have a secret crush on the PM if Mordaunt.
Leadsom? Has the gravitas etc. Might be best bet now.

I think it'll be Gove or Stewart, personally. Gove is obviously running as he's been working on establishing a campaign team behind the scenes, though he hasn't confirmed it yet. Javid's a maybe if he runs, as is Patel.

Boris will be attacked from all sides and I think he'll drop out again. Ditto Leadsom. Rudd is on course to lose her seat at the next GE. Can't really say about Raab; I think he has the most MPs currently supporting him, but I'm unsure how popular he is with the grassroots.

Stewart at 25/1.

Stewart would be an interesting choice, but given his Brexit position I think it'd be a poisoned chalice for him.

Given the 'quality' of so many of them, the only surprise for me is that we haven't heard that Grayling's also in the running.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:We're headed for a general election. This parliament's had it.

I highly doubt it. At least not for another year or two.

Why would the Tories support a GE now when they're polling third, and a new analysis from Matthew Goodwin reckons that several senior Tories - like Boris Johnson, Amber Rudd and Zac Goldsmith - would lose their seats at the next GE at the expense of the Brexit Party? It would be madness, particularly as May's failed gamble in 2017 is very recent history.

Because they won't be able to get a deal through the Commons.

A withdrawal agreement for leaving the EU? I agree, hence why I think we'll leave with no deal.

But if they call a General Election for this year, they'll likely be cast into opposition, and it may be a defeat from which they will never recover.

No deal is a bluff from Johnson (or whoever) just as it was from May. Parliament wouldn't stand for it even if they were serious.

(Yes, I know no deal is the default.)

I understand your point here, but I'm unsure how it correlates to a General Election happening. If they can't get a withdrawal agreement through, and wouldn't countenance 'no-deal', they would just have to revoke article 50 - they wouldn't need to call a GE to do that.

BoJo is the perennial favourite, but there is so much (mostly self generated) Poopie floating around that guy surely some must stick.

Loathsome has some 'issues' about honesty also. You would have though lying on your CV at her level would have more consequences.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

tigertattie wrote:You think its bad in Westminster! You should see the utter numpties we have in Holyrood.

Imagine Westminster is the high school of politics, well Holyrood is the nursery where idiots who are not even capable to be in Westminster ply thier trade!

Don't let caledoniancraig see you saying things like that....


I just looked at this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48395611

Christ. We're f****d.

Stewart and Rudd should stay out of it for now - not their time.
Priti Patel??? Seriously?
Raab?
Javid?
Hancock? Lightweight and wrong time for any Remainer.
Gove and Hunt - compromised for various deeds in the past.
Johnson?
Truss? Dunno.
McVey and Mordaunt? Dunno, but at least I could have a secret crush on the PM if Mordaunt.
Leadsom? Has the gravitas etc. Might be best bet now.

I think it'll be Gove or Stewart, personally. Gove is obviously running as he's been working on establishing a campaign team behind the scenes, though he hasn't confirmed it yet. Javid's a maybe if he runs, as is Patel.

Boris will be attacked from all sides and I think he'll drop out again. Ditto Leadsom. Rudd is on course to lose her seat at the next GE. Can't really say about Raab; I think he has the most MPs currently supporting him, but I'm unsure how popular he is with the grassroots.

Stewart at 25/1.

Stewart would be an interesting choice, but given his Brexit position I think it'd be a poisoned chalice for him.

Given the 'quality' of so many of them, the only surprise for me is that we haven't heard that Grayling's also in the running.

The announcement that Grayling is running for PM is due to appear around mid August

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:We're headed for a general election. This parliament's had it.

I highly doubt it. At least not for another year or two.

Why would the Tories support a GE now when they're polling third, and a new analysis from Matthew Goodwin reckons that several senior Tories - like Boris Johnson, Amber Rudd and Zac Goldsmith - would lose their seats at the next GE at the expense of the Brexit Party? It would be madness, particularly as May's failed gamble in 2017 is very recent history.

Because they won't be able to get a deal through the Commons.

A withdrawal agreement for leaving the EU? I agree, hence why I think we'll leave with no deal.

But if they call a General Election for this year, they'll likely be cast into opposition, and it may be a defeat from which they will never recover.

No deal is a bluff from Johnson (or whoever) just as it was from May. Parliament wouldn't stand for it even if they were serious.

(Yes, I know no deal is the default.)

I understand your point here, but I'm unsure how it correlates to a General Election happening. If they can't get a withdrawal agreement through, and wouldn't countenance 'no-deal', they would just have to revoke article 50 - they wouldn't need to call a GE to do that.

Revoking article 50 really would be seen as undemocratic if it was done without consulting the people first, and as the Tories want Brexit, then they'd rather call a general election and hope for a leave-majority parliament than have a second referendum and risk the country voting to remain.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:We're headed for a general election. This parliament's had it.

I highly doubt it. At least not for another year or two.

Why would the Tories support a GE now when they're polling third, and a new analysis from Matthew Goodwin reckons that several senior Tories - like Boris Johnson, Amber Rudd and Zac Goldsmith - would lose their seats at the next GE at the expense of the Brexit Party? It would be madness, particularly as May's failed gamble in 2017 is very recent history.

Because they won't be able to get a deal through the Commons.

A withdrawal agreement for leaving the EU? I agree, hence why I think we'll leave with no deal.

But if they call a General Election for this year, they'll likely be cast into opposition, and it may be a defeat from which they will never recover.

No deal is a bluff from Johnson (or whoever) just as it was from May. Parliament wouldn't stand for it even if they were serious.

(Yes, I know no deal is the default.)

I understand your point here, but I'm unsure how it correlates to a General Election happening. If they can't get a withdrawal agreement through, and wouldn't countenance 'no-deal', they would just have to revoke article 50 - they wouldn't need to call a GE to do that.

Revoking article 50 really would be seen as undemocratic if it was done without consulting the people first, and as the Tories want Brexit, then they'd rather call a general election and hope for a leave-majority parliament than have a second referendum and risk the country voting to remain.

Nothing will be seen as democratic by the nutters.

Revoking article 50 on the basis of giving us more time to plan/ work out what the hell we are doing would be sensible, although nothing that is happening at the moment could ever be described as sensible.

Yeah that's a good point. Revoking article 50 doesn't have to mean no Brexit ever.

The problem we have is that no form of Brexit will please everyone, or put another way, every form of Brexit will disappoint most people. Even remaining will upset a lot of people.

Won't be Gove......The ERG haven't forgiven him for staying on when others quit and saving May's backside along with Liam Fox..

Johnson is 8/11...Primarily because he only has to get on the ballot to win with the 70% very right wing membership....There are 312 mps...

105 at the most would get him in the run off..Probably much less if the Centre right candidate (Hunt) gets 140 odd..

Most Mps want to look for favour by getting behind the winning candidate..

Johnson has 50 ERG backing him and he can offer others like Rudd top jobs to get some of her supporters to get him on to the ballot..

It will be Boris..

May can exit but the dynamics dont change.

Parliament wont pass the deal, or allow no deal. The EU wont change it. The party is divided. The opposition isnt even competent enough to end it and let them regroup on the sidelines.

Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

lostinwales wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

tigertattie wrote:You think its bad in Westminster! You should see the utter numpties we have in Holyrood.

Imagine Westminster is the high school of politics, well Holyrood is the nursery where idiots who are not even capable to be in Westminster ply thier trade!

Don't let caledoniancraig see you saying things like that....


I just looked at this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48395611

Christ. We're f****d.

Stewart and Rudd should stay out of it for now - not their time.
Priti Patel??? Seriously?
Raab?
Javid?
Hancock? Lightweight and wrong time for any Remainer.
Gove and Hunt - compromised for various deeds in the past.
Johnson?
Truss? Dunno.
McVey and Mordaunt? Dunno, but at least I could have a secret crush on the PM if Mordaunt.
Leadsom? Has the gravitas etc. Might be best bet now.

I think it'll be Gove or Stewart, personally. Gove is obviously running as he's been working on establishing a campaign team behind the scenes, though he hasn't confirmed it yet. Javid's a maybe if he runs, as is Patel.

Boris will be attacked from all sides and I think he'll drop out again. Ditto Leadsom. Rudd is on course to lose her seat at the next GE. Can't really say about Raab; I think he has the most MPs currently supporting him, but I'm unsure how popular he is with the grassroots.

Stewart at 25/1.

Stewart would be an interesting choice, but given his Brexit position I think it'd be a poisoned chalice for him.

Given the 'quality' of so many of them, the only surprise for me is that we haven't heard that Grayling's also in the running.

The announcement that Grayling is running for PM is due to appear around mid August

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

Polls tend to put remain ahead these days, and Brexit party votes for the EU elections are a side show, unfortunately. The fact that the Brexit party is dodging so much, including producing any kind of manifesto, plus their choice of frontman, would suggest that they will come unstuck sooner or later.

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

Tories leaving with no deal would put them out of office at the next GE for 10 - 15 years. Unlikely they will do that.

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

That old Brexit Party candidate pouring yoghurt on himself and pretending he'd been milkshaked was particularly positive.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

That old Brexit Party candidate pouring yoghurt on himself and pretending he'd been milkshaked was particularly positive.

He wasn't/isn't a candidate. No evidence to suggest this was faked. Police currently investigating.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

Tories leaving with no deal would put them out of office at the next GE for 10 - 15 years. Unlikely they will do that.

Tories revoking article 50 would destroy their party entirely.

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

That old Brexit Party candidate pouring yoghurt on himself and pretending he'd been milkshaked was particularly positive.

He wasn't/isn't a candidate. No evidence to suggest this was faked. Police currently investigating.

Plenty of evidence to suggest it was faked!

lostinwales wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

Polls tend to put remain ahead these days, and Brexit party votes for the EU elections are a side show, unfortunately. The fact that the Brexit party is dodging so much, including producing any kind of manifesto, plus their choice of frontman, would suggest that they will come unstuck sooner or later.

Polls also put remain ahead before the EU referendum (10 of the last 13 polls). We will wait and see what the Brexit Party do over the summer with regards to policy formation. I think this'll be a very tough area for the Brexit Party because they have supporters across the political spectrum. Farage has hinted that the 'registered supporters' will get to vote on policy, similar to the five star movement in Italy (something he has long admired). Or they may run as a one-issue party. Their frontman is the best asset they have.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

That old Brexit Party candidate pouring yoghurt on himself and pretending he'd been milkshaked was particularly positive.

He wasn't/isn't a candidate. No evidence to suggest this was faked. Police currently investigating.

Plenty of evidence to suggest it was faked!

Do please share.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

Tories leaving with no deal would put them out of office at the next GE for 10 - 15 years. Unlikely they will do that.

Tories revoking article 50 would destroy their party entirely.

So probably the only thing that won't screw them long term is a General Election and let the winners take the rap for whatever Brexit outcome happens.

You can find that for yourself, I'm finishing work in a bit. Basically the splatter pattern is completely different to the other recent milkshakings, it's too thick to be a milkshake, there's nothing on the floor around him, and a bloke who owns the shop near where it's alleged to have happened says there's no evidence it did happen.

On the subject of the Brexit Party potentially doing well in a general election, I think you're forgetting what a polarising figure Farage is. He's not the sole reason the country voted (narrowly) to leave three years ago. Plus he's advocating a hard Brexit, which certainly isn't what most people want. It's by no means a given that everyone who voted Leave in 2016 will vote for the Brexit Party - and that's if they still want to leave at all.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

Tories leaving with no deal would put them out of office at the next GE for 10 - 15 years. Unlikely they will do that.

Tories revoking article 50 would destroy their party entirely.

So probably the only thing that won't screw them long term is a General Election and let the winners take the rap for whatever Brexit outcome happens.

That would land them with a very heavy defeat, that I don't think they could recover them. My personal opinion is that probably the only thing that wouldn't screw them over is if they actually went ahead with Brexit, saw off the Brexit Party, and hold a GE in 2021/2022...though I appreciate we disagree!

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You can find that for yourself, I'm finishing work in a bit. Basically the splatter pattern is completely different to the other recent milkshakings, it's too thick to be a milkshake, there's nothing on the floor around him, and a bloke who owns the shop near where it's alleged to have happened says there's no evidence it did happen.

On the subject of the Brexit Party potentially doing well in a general election, I think you're forgetting what a polarising figure Farage is. He's not the sole reason the country voted (narrowly) to leave three years ago. Plus he's advocating a hard Brexit, which certainly isn't what most people want. It's by no means a given that everyone who voted Leave in 2016 will vote for the Brexit Party - and that's if they still want to leave at all.

1) I imagine it would be. Not every milkshake is thrown from the same distance/angle or with the same velocity.
2) I don't think you could assume that from a picture.
3) That's assuming the picture was taken in exactly the same place as where the incident occurred. And I think the incident happened a few hours before any picture was taken.
4) I saw that on Twitter. He said he had a video that disproved it entirely, then he deleted his account (or it was suspended) when he was asked for it.

Regardless, he isn't a candidate and this wasn't part of the Brexit Party campaign, which was a positive one. If he did fake it, we'll soon know.

I'm aware that Farage is a polarising figure, but his positives far outweigh the negatives. And it's not as though the Brexit Party would ever have to get higher than 40% to do really well at a General Election.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

Tories leaving with no deal would put them out of office at the next GE for 10 - 15 years. Unlikely they will do that.

Tories revoking article 50 would destroy their party entirely.

So probably the only thing that won't screw them long term is a General Election and let the winners take the rap for whatever Brexit outcome happens.

That would land them with a very heavy defeat, that I don't think they could recover them. My personal opinion is that probably the only thing that wouldn't screw them over is if they actually went ahead with Brexit, saw off the Brexit Party, and hold a GE in 2021/2022...though I appreciate we disagree!

Leaving with a deal would be the best long-term outcome for Tories. Unfortunately for them, some Tory MPs (hard Brexiteers) are less concerned for their own party than they are about Brexit (and their own egos).

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

Tories leaving with no deal would put them out of office at the next GE for 10 - 15 years. Unlikely they will do that.

Tories revoking article 50 would destroy their party entirely.

So probably the only thing that won't screw them long term is a General Election and let the winners take the rap for whatever Brexit outcome happens.

That would land them with a very heavy defeat, that I don't think they could recover them. My personal opinion is that probably the only thing that wouldn't screw them over is if they actually went ahead with Brexit, saw off the Brexit Party, and hold a GE in 2021/2022...though I appreciate we disagree!

Leaving with a deal would be the best long-term outcome for Tories. Unfortunately for them, some Tory MPs (hard Brexiteers) are less concerned for their own party than they are about Brexit (and their own egos).

If they could get a good deal then, yes, absolutely.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Pick whichever opportunist you want, the only way it ends is back with the people one way or another

Wouldn't solve a thing in my view. People would vote to leave again and we'd be in the same position as now, only many months down the line. And the EU won't wait for an eternity, either.

Parliament was given instruction by 17.4 million in 2016 - the Tories either follow that instruction with a no-deal exit, or they'll be replaced by the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage. The European Elections are just a small taste of what could happen.

And the Brexit Party is genuinely in a position to do that, should the political situation call for it, much unlike UKIP. UKIP was constantly let down by lightweight candidates, awful organisation, and a terrible campaigning strategy. The Brexit Party is the complete opposite and has run a brilliant, positive campaign over the last few weeks, particularly on social media where they've been light years ahead of the other parties.

Tories leaving with no deal would put them out of office at the next GE for 10 - 15 years. Unlikely they will do that.

Tories revoking article 50 would destroy their party entirely.

So probably the only thing that won't screw them long term is a General Election and let the winners take the rap for whatever Brexit outcome happens.

That would land them with a very heavy defeat, that I don't think they could recover them. My personal opinion is that probably the only thing that wouldn't screw them over is if they actually went ahead with Brexit, saw off the Brexit Party, and hold a GE in 2021/2022...though I appreciate we disagree!

Leaving with a deal would be the best long-term outcome for Tories. Unfortunately for them, some Tory MPs (hard Brexiteers) are less concerned for their own party than they are about Brexit (and their own egos).

If they could get a good deal then, yes, absolutely.

Well, we were told that would be easy

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You can find that for yourself, I'm finishing work in a bit. Basically the splatter pattern is completely different to the other recent milkshakings, it's too thick to be a milkshake, there's nothing on the floor around him, and a bloke who owns the shop near where it's alleged to have happened says there's no evidence it did happen.

On the subject of the Brexit Party potentially doing well in a general election, I think you're forgetting what a polarising figure Farage is. He's not the sole reason the country voted (narrowly) to leave three years ago. Plus he's advocating a hard Brexit, which certainly isn't what most people want. It's by no means a given that everyone who voted Leave in 2016 will vote for the Brexit Party - and that's if they still want to leave at all.

1) I imagine it would be. Not every milkshake is thrown from the same distance/angle or with the same velocity.
2) I don't think you could assume that from a picture.
3) That's assuming the picture was taken in exactly the same place as where the incident occurred. And I think the incident happened a few hours before any picture was taken.
4) I saw that on Twitter. He said he had a video that disproved it entirely, then he deleted his account (or it was suspended) when he was asked for it.

Regardless, he isn't a candidate and this wasn't part of the Brexit Party campaign, which was a positive one. If he did fake it, we'll soon know.

I'm aware that Farage is a polarising figure, but his positives far outweigh the negatives. And it's not as though the Brexit Party would ever have to get higher than 40% to do really well at a General Election.

No, they really don't.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You can find that for yourself, I'm finishing work in a bit. Basically the splatter pattern is completely different to the other recent milkshakings, it's too thick to be a milkshake, there's nothing on the floor around him, and a bloke who owns the shop near where it's alleged to have happened says there's no evidence it did happen.

On the subject of the Brexit Party potentially doing well in a general election, I think you're forgetting what a polarising figure Farage is. He's not the sole reason the country voted (narrowly) to leave three years ago. Plus he's advocating a hard Brexit, which certainly isn't what most people want. It's by no means a given that everyone who voted Leave in 2016 will vote for the Brexit Party - and that's if they still want to leave at all.

1) I imagine it would be. Not every milkshake is thrown from the same distance/angle or with the same velocity.
2) I don't think you could assume that from a picture.
3) That's assuming the picture was taken in exactly the same place as where the incident occurred. And I think the incident happened a few hours before any picture was taken.
4) I saw that on Twitter. He said he had a video that disproved it entirely, then he deleted his account (or it was suspended) when he was asked for it.

Regardless, he isn't a candidate and this wasn't part of the Brexit Party campaign, which was a positive one. If he did fake it, we'll soon know.

I'm aware that Farage is a polarising figure, but his positives far outweigh the negatives. And it's not as though the Brexit Party would ever have to get higher than 40% to do really well at a General Election.

No, they really don't.

As leader of a political party, they absolutely do. He is a phenomenal campaigner, handles the media excellently, wonderfully charismatic and a good communicator. He is chiefly responsible for the Brexit Party's upcoming victory in the European Elections - no other person currently around in British politics could have achieved that.

He is such a great campaigner Ukip didn't win any seats in 2015.....Before the referendum..

The Euro Election is a protest vote......Libs will do well and Brexit will do well...

When the GE gets here it will be Con v Lab.....

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:He is such a great campaigner Ukip didn't win any seats in 2015.....Before the referendum..

The Euro Election is a protest vote......Libs will do well and Brexit will do well...

When the GE gets here it will be Con v Lab.....

Hope the Tories and Labour take the same complacent attitude.

Amber Rudd not running. Trying to position herself as chancellor in a Boris-led government.

Has he ever won a seat in the UK?

His negatives outweigh his positives, they outweigh the negatives of most other politicians too

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Has he ever won a seat in the UK?

His negatives outweigh his positives, they outweigh the negatives of most other politicians too

Farage's achievements are very clear - the only person to lead a political party that wasn't Labour or Conservative to a national election victory in the last 100-or-so-years. And he's done that twice (probably). No other person in British politics could have led a party from nothing to topping a national poll in about two months. If Farage wasn't leading the Brexit Party, this wouldn't have happened. If he stepped down from the Brexit Party overnight, they would fold - that's why his positives easily outweigh any negatives he brings to a political campaign.

He also led UKIP from some fringe position into the third most popular party in British politics, and examine how they've collapsed without Farage's leadership. As well as the positive role he played for Leave in the referendum, he is also the only person currently around with the capability of breaking the Tories and Labour's stranglehold on the two-party system.

So he's a very good politician - is that meant to impress anyone? I'd much rather he was a good person.

Farage is very, very good at lying and sourcing dark money.

He's also extremely good at moaning about things without coming up with solutions.

JuliusHMarx wrote:So he's a very good politician - is that meant to impress anyone? I'd much rather he was a good person.

Well the original point was related to his political abilities, and how those abilities outweigh his drawbacks of being a polarising figure, not about his personal character.

tigertattie wrote:You think its bad in Westminster! You should see the utter numpties we have in Holyrood.

Imagine Westminster is the high school of politics, well Holyrood is the nursery where idiots who are not even capable to be in Westminster ply thier trade!

Yes there are far too many Tory MPs in there I agree. When they are got rid of things will improve greatly.

Ah yes Westminster the place that has done so well with Brexit.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Yeah that's a good point. Revoking article 50 doesn't have to mean no Brexit ever.

An excellent point

It may seem a bit backward looking but frankly with the Conservative right wing hanging out for a super hard Brexit and the parliament unlikely to permit a no-deal : would it not make sense to hit "start again " ?

Of course , even with proper preparation and planning and a clear statement of what Brexit would actually mean , this would still imply a further referendum. And of course this is anathema to the Brexiters with their cry of " we must respect the people's vote !" ; bit I'm increasingly sure they are pushing this line because they are well aware that they "stole" that vote and are most unlikely to win another now that more information is on the table...

Though if they really believe the people still want Brexit they should welcome a chance to nail the issue completely , no ?

I know Duty wont agree But it makes sense to me.

Apologies for entering this argument from 12000 miles away . Got plenty of political issues down here too ; but I'm not happy seeing the Old Country making a laughing stock of itself taking three years to do nothing but run around in circles...