Wales vs Ireland - Round 5

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Teams TBA Thursday the 14th March

Referee Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant 1 Ben O'Keeffe (New Zelaand)
Assistant 2 Karl Dickson (England)
TMO Marius Jonker (South Africa)


Wales:

L Williams (Saracens); North (Ospreys), J Davies (Scarlets), Parkes (Scarlets), Adams (Worcester); Anscombe (Cardiff Blues), G Davies (Scarlets); R Evans (Scarlets), Owens (Scarlets), Francis (Exeter Chiefs), Beard (Ospreys), AW Jones (Ospreys, capt), Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Tipuric (Ospreys), Moriarty (Dragons).

Replacements: Dee (Dragons), Smith (Ospreys), D Lewis (Cardiff Blues), Ball (Scarlets), Wainwright (Dragons), A Davies (Ospreys), Biggar (Northampton), Watkin (Ospreys).



Ireland:


Kearney; Earls, Ringrose, Aki, Stockdale; Sexton, Murray; Healy, Best (capt), Furlong, Beirne, Ryan, O'Mahony, O'Brien, Stander.

Replacements: Scannell, Kilcoyne, Porter, Roux, Conan, Marmion, Carty, Larmour.

No changes for Wales. Lovely stuff.

Would have brought Tomos Williams back in to the bench for this. The only change needed. Shame.

What's going on with Tomos Williams? I had the impression that he was Gatland's new favourite but now seems relegated to 3rd choice behind a not so good looking Aled Davies. Have they had a falling out?!

Very odd. Rested for Italy, injured v England. Unless he's properly, long term/still injured now, I don't understand why he's been dropped. Thought he was released to play for the Blues last week.

Blues didnt play last week... Think he's injured.

Glad Liam is declared fit. But not sure about the FB replacement, when he went off last week and Anscombe went to 15, we seemed to be left wanting a bit. I really hope Liam's fit and not playing through an injury, as if he is forced to leave the field early, I'm not sure that Anscombe at 15 will keep the Irish attack at bay.

Also, the Irish attack is not going to be solely from high balls, as they would have learned from England's mistakes, that Liam, Josh and George can cope with that fairly easily. But if Ansombe has to cover back there, their going to send so many down on him.

Week before last then?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/47385154

Agree Anscombe isn't up to the 15 shirt - Squidge Rugby pointed that out in a video he's done on the game.

Have to consider this with the RWC in mind though. Halfpenny makes the 23 if/when fit. Liam hopefully makes the 80. Aled Davies is likewise being given every opportunity to play his way on to/off the plane to Japan.

As great as a GS would be there's still a World Cup to come. This Wales team isn't peaking.

miaow wrote:Week before last then?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/47385154

Sorry missed that... Did he return to the Welsh Squad ? Its a little strange, as he is head and tails above Aled, who worries the life out of me.

When is the Ireland team announced?

Big challenge for us to deal with that back row, O'Brien and POM aren't the quickest flankers around whereas Navedi and Tipuric both bring a lot of pace. I expect them to give us plenty of trouble at the breakdown.

For us I see Anscombe as someone who can be targeted, I'm happier he is starting rather than Biggar..

Yeah Anscome definitely isn't as good as Biggar who for me is the most under rated 10 in world rugby. He has such a wide range of skills and is absolutely unreal at gathering his own up and unders.

That said I think Anscome has improved week on week so that probably bodes well for Wales' squad depth.

Navedi is one of the form back rows of the six nations, never bought into the hype around Tipuric. The game could be won and lost at the breakdown and contact zone though.

In a sense, Anscombe starting and Biggar coming on is the right call for games like this. Seeing as it's likely to finish very close, I would rather Biggar close the game out than Anscombe. Similarly, I would rather somebody else close the game instead of Aled Davies.

I would possibly have had Thomas Young on the bench this weekend, in case Beirne and POM etc are having a bit of joy competing over the ball. Same could be said for Nicky Smith, as I saw somebody say on twitter. I have no concerns about Tipuric and I am sure all of our backrow will play well on the weekend, given the challenge it faces.

Looks like Beirne and O'Brien will start and Kearney will come back in for Larmour.

Team announced at 2 but its likely to be:

15. Kearney
14. Earls
13. Ringrose
12. Aki
11. Stockdale
10. Sexton
9. Murray
8. Stander
7. O'Brien
6. POM
5. Ryan
4. Beirne
3. Furlong
2. Best
1. Healy

My guess it Ireland will elect for the roof to remain open too.

I do agree with RiscaGame Biggar is a better finisher, coming on in the closing stages to close out the game. But in my opinion he is also better at keeping the score board ticking over...Kicking the penalties etc, Better than Anscome is.

Anscombe runs the backline far better than Biggar. The back play still isn't good enough yet, but bringing Biggar back to start would only make it worse.

In terms of the rucks, it's been interesting to see North top the turnover/breakdown penalty stats for Wales. Or he's up there at least. Wales aren't really competing in the traditional way as Tipuric and Navidi are being marked out of the game quite well. But in the wider channels, Liam Williams, North, and even Adams are having a real go at the ball. North's size makes him difficult to move and he's making gains there.

It's these little things that North has improved on. I think North is honestly in really good form, these last 12-18 months are the best he's played for Wales.

Ireland Team & Replacements (v Wales, Guinness Six Nations Championship2019, Principality Stadium, Saturday 16 March, KO 2.45pm
 
15. Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster) 89 caps
14. Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster) 76 caps
13. Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster) 19 caps
12. Bundee Aki (Galwegians/Connacht) 16 caps
11. Jacob Stockdale (Lurgan/Ulster) 18 caps
10. Jonathan Sexton (St Marys College/Leinster) 82 caps (vc)
9. Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster) 71 caps
1. Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster) 87 caps
2. Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster) 116 caps (c)
3. Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster) 32 caps
4. Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster) 4 caps
5. James Ryan (UCD/Leinster) 16 caps
6. Peter O’Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster) 56 caps (vc)
7. Sean O’Brien (UCD/Leinster) 55 caps
8. CJ Stander (Shannon/Munster) 30 caps
 
Replacements
16. Niall Scannell (Dolphin/Munster) 13 caps
17. Dave Kilcoyne (UL Bohemians/Munster) 28 caps
18. Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster) 13 caps
19. Quinn Roux (Galwegians/Connacht) 11 caps
20. Jack Conan (Old Belvedere/Leinster) 13 caps
21. Kieran Marmion (Galwegians/Connacht) 24 caps
22. Jack Carty (Buccaneers/Connacht) 2 caps
23. Jordan Larmour (St Mary’s College/Leinster) 12 caps

Two vice captains? Is that normal?

Collapse2005 wrote:Two vice captains? Is that normal?

Scotland officially named two vice captains last week, while England have used co-captains.

Strong Irish team. Gutted Beirne's playing.

Yeah strong side, Ireland by 20.

Anyone have a logical explanation for why Aled Davies is still there?

rodders wrote:Yeah strong side, Ireland by 20.

You're only as strong as your weakest link(s); in Ireland's case O'Brien and Kearney.\

Wales by 50.

Lol, Kearney is hardly a weak link. O'Brien on current form maybe.

mikey_dragon wrote:

rodders wrote:Yeah strong side, Ireland by 20.

You're only as strong as your weakest link(s); in Ireland's case O'Brien and Kearney.\

Wales by 50.

Wales by 50 hmmmmm bit of wish full thinking there i think.

Have Wales ever beaten Ireland by 50? I don't remember them doing so.

majesticimperialman wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:

rodders wrote:Yeah strong side, Ireland by 20.

You're only as strong as your weakest link(s); in Ireland's case O'Brien and Kearney.\

Wales by 50.

Wales by 50 hmmmmm bit of wish full thinking there i think.

Have Wales ever beaten Ireland by 50? I don't remember them doing so.

Wales have never even scored 50 points against Ireland never mind won by 50. Biggest score by Wales is 34 points. Largest margin is 29. Ireland's largest margin is 44.

Collapse2005 wrote:Lol, Kearney is hardly a weak link. O'Brien on current form maybe.

Suffering from a bit of blue eye there maybe? They're both well past it.

Wales biggest winning margin 29 points (in 1907, would have been 40 using modern scoring)
Wales highest score 34 points (1976 38 in modern scoring, so 1907 would beat it)

Ireland biggest margin (in Cardiff) 30 points (2001)
Ireland biggest score 36 (same game)

mikey_dragon wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Lol, Kearney is hardly a weak link. O'Brien on current form maybe.

Suffering from a bit of blue eye there maybe? They're both well past it.

Better than pink eye?

mikey_dragon wrote:

rodders wrote:Yeah strong side, Ireland by 20.

You're only as strong as your weakest link(s); in Ireland's case O'Brien and Kearney.\

Wales by 50.

Well that's hardly true or poor old Hadley Parkes would have Wales in the wooden spoon race.

rodders wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:

rodders wrote:Yeah strong side, Ireland by 20.

You're only as strong as your weakest link(s); in Ireland's case O'Brien and Kearney.\

Wales by 50.

Well that's hardly true or poor old Hadley Parkes would have Wales in the wooden spoon race.

Which of them has a MOTM award?

mikey_dragon wrote:Anyone have a logical explanation for why Aled Davies is still there?

Gatland has put money on an Ireland win and aled is there to make sure?

Hadley Parkes reminds me of Brendan chainsaw Laney. So slow. Thats when he isnt reminding me of a caravan park.

I wouldnt be surprised if Ireland won this as we seem to be getting our mojo back and this is an important game even if we cant win the title.

Equally Wales tend to win their grand slam deciders. Game on.

Collapse2005 wrote:Hadley Parkes reminds me of Brendan chainsaw Laney. So slow. Thats when he isnt reminding me of a caravan park.

Faster than Kearney though.

Definitely not as good looking though?

The weak parts of the Irish team are in the replacements. Front row, half back, particularly number 10. Quinn Roux there - remember him having a big impact scrum time last year. Think the Welsh scrum can get at the Irish front row though.

Perhaps a weakness with Earls? Very solid player but not outstanding. Up against the Welsh back three in defence, could be exploited. England certainly targeted him in there air. Not sure Kearney's a weakness. Way past his best, buit still a solid dependable test animal. Larmour from the bench offers something very different but did nothing in 40 minutes against England.

Stander got absolutely schooled in the contact by Warburton in this fixture 2 years ago. These are the kind of games where Wales will miss him most.

I can see PoM and SoB spoiling the breakdowns, with Best and Beirne getting in and winning a few turnovers. Hopefully Wales have been preparing for Beirne. He's not to be underestimated and 2-3 turnovers in defence can turn/win a game.

In terms of tactics, I can't see how Wales can 'trick' Ireland like they perhaps did against England. Wales are unlikely to be as 'tidy' as Ireland are under Schmidt. They're going to want to play it a bit quicker, a bit wider - but will they get the platform and number of opportunities to do that without it backfiring? And if they do, do they take enough of them as a % of chances to score enough points?

Absolutely 50:50 this game. For those underestimating Wales, still, they've beaten Ireland in this fixture in both 2015 and 2017. Both included herculean defensive efforts. I would expect similar again and I'm hoping, with no real 'pressure' on the championship in terms of other results, the team is well drilled enough to use the crowd and the occasion to their advantage.

There will be no guardian angel for Wales on the whistle though this time. Im not underestimating Wales though. Looking forward to it.

Also, if Wales' lineout is as poor as it has been, don't think Wales will win. Have to be getting 70-80% of lineouts, minimum. Particularly in attack - Ireland will squeeze the field and, with Anscombe being unbelievably good at making big ground from penalty touch finders, the lineout could be the difference between efficiently capitalising on good defensive work, or inviting pressure straight back on to the team.

Collapse2005 wrote:There will be no guardian angel for Wales on the whistle though this time. Im not underestimating Wales though. Looking forward to it.

Thing is, this is a joke. Barnes was so heavily favouring Ireland in 2017 - but once a reputation sticks in certain peoples' minds...

Just look at the penalty count for that game.

Ireland's penalty count is always low, except when Barnes is on the whistle.

Schmidt has asked for the roof to be open as expected. Cant blame him. lets see how these soft Welsh guys handle a bit of rain. Gatland has had a strop and made an appeal to the six nations organisers. Lol, great start to the mental warfare.

Always...expect when it's not, of course...

Mind games I bet Schmidt wants it closed really. Wales will be wanting to target Ireland in the air.

Gats will get his way and we'll smoke them.

Schmidt, Wood, Quinlan... they all try mind games when they come down to Cardiff for this fixture, and it never works. Glen Jackson was the key difference last year, how is he still reffing?

Collapse2005 wrote:Schmidt has asked for the roof to be open as expected. Cant blame him. lets see how these soft Welsh guys handle a bit of rain. .

Ha ha. You are right of course. It never rains in Wales. That's why France beat us so convincingly.

Scmidt has been talking with Uncle Eddie and he told him the way to beat Wales was to have the roof open.... Oh yeah, how did that game finish

Doesn't matter... Wales have won all their 11 Grand Slams with NO roof... And remember 2005, Ireland wanted the roof open then as well... and we know how that ended.

Open or close, Wales to win their 4th 6 Nations Slam and 12 Slam of all time...
(Anscombe to feed Aled who will run the lenght of the field to score the try of the tournament. Anscombe then to seal the win with a massive drop goal, placing themselves in Welsh folklore.... ok bit in brackets is a little unbelievable.. even for me )

I'd been more worried if they wanted the roof closed.

miaow wrote:Agree Anscombe isn't up to the 15 shirt - Squidge Rugby pointed that out in a video he's done on the game.

Have to consider this with the RWC in mind though. Halfpenny makes the 23 if/when fit. Liam hopefully makes the 80. Aled Davies is likewise being given every opportunity to play his way on to/off the plane to Japan.

As great as a GS would be there's still a World Cup to come. This Wales team isn't peaking.

We'll have to wait and see!

Well I hope it hasn’t peaked. Because we’ve been largely gash this 6N, save for the defence.

A beautiful day forecast

The Oracle wrote:A beautiful day forecast

Gawwwwww...