Pro 14 Run in, who finishes where

Current Standings (Position overall log)

Conference A
2 Glasgow 71(2) Leinster (a), Edinburgh (h) T3=1 M=1 B3=0
3 Munster 68 (3) Benetton (a), Connacht (h) T3=0 M=2 B3=0
5 Connacht 56 (4) Blues (h), Munster (a) T3=1 M=1 B3=0
6 Blues 52 (6) Connacht (a), Ospreys (h) T3=0 M=2 B3=0
10 Ospreys 49 (9) Kings (a), Blues (a) T3=0 M=1 B3=1
11 Cheetahs 36 (11) Dragons (h), Kings (h) T3=0 M=0 B3=2
14 Zebre 19 (14) Scarlets (a), Benetton (h) T3=0 M=2 B3=0

Conference B
1 Leinster 74 (1) Glasgow (h), Ulster (a) T3=1 M=1 B3=0
4 Ulster 54 (5) Edinburgh (a), Leinster (h) T3=1 M=1 B3=0
7 Benetton 52 (7) Munster (h), Zebre (a) T3=1 M=0 B3=1
8 Edinburgh 51 (8) Ulster (h), Glasgow (a) T3=1 M=1 B3=0
9 Scarlets 45 (10) Zebre (h), Dragons (a) T3=0 M=0 B3=2
12 Kings 22 (12) Ospreys (h), Cheetahs (a) T3=0 M=2 B3=0
13 Dragons 21 (13) Cheetahs (a), Scarlets (h) T3=0 M=2 B3=0

In the Conference System
First - Home Semi, Glasgow (+3), Leinster (confirmed)
Second - Home Quarter, Munster (+12), Ulster (+2)
Third - Quarterfinal, Connacht (+4), Benetton (+1)

Champs Cup playoff
Home (Highest fourth) Blues (+3)
Away Edinburgh (+6)

Wooden Spoon
Zebre (-2)

Home Semi is confirmed as Leinster with Glasgow or Munster taking the other spot.
Home Quarter seems to be the loser of Munster/Glasgow and any of Bennetton, Ulster or Edinburgh
The last spot in the quarters look a shootout between Connacht and Blues.

If you add in Ospreys with an outside chance of Champs Cup there are 7 teams fighting for the remaining 4 places.  If any of the Pro14 teams win either Euro then the highest placed fourth gets the spot and 5th in the Conference goes into the playoff (unless that team winning don't make the playoffs i.e. Edinburgh)

The wooden spoon will be an interesting fight with 3 teams only divided by 2 points.  The Kings seem to have the up hand due to their ability to get Bps.

This has backed up last year of the middle teams really after upping their game and making every game from now till the end a game of meaning for both team (such as Connacht v Bennetton this week is bad for the losing team, for the winner they might still be on a knife edge)

What are people predictions for the final standings.

The Fixtures show Edinburgh with the hardest run in playing two of the top 3 teams and none of the bottom three.  Scarlets on the other hand have none of the top 3 but 2 of the bottom 3 as do Cheetahs. Ospreys play 3 of the bottom 4 plus the Blues so could close the gap on the Blues. They are on a 6 game losing streak in all competitions so might not be any help.

The winner of conference A looks to be a close run thing. Glasgow's run in is
Cheetahs (H)
Ulster (H)
Leinster (A)
Edinburgh (H)

Munster have
Zebre (H)
Cardiff (H)
Treviso (A)
Connacht (H)

Glasgow have two relatively easy games and two incredibly difficult games whereas Munster could win or lose their last three. It really could go right down to the last game and those derbies can go any way.

Glasgow have two easy games

If you saying Ulster or Edinburgh at home will be easy I think you are mistaken

geoff999rugby wrote:Glasgow have two easy games

If you saying Ulster or Edinburgh at home will be easy I think you are mistaken

It's not like both teams won in Scotstoun last time either played there or anything like that

geoff999rugby wrote:Glasgow have two easy games

If you saying Ulster or Edinburgh at home will be easy I think you are mistaken

Fair enough, probably a poor choice of words. What I meant is that Glasgow are playing pretty well at the moment and I'd say are favourites to beat Ulster at Scotstoun.

Smart money probably not on beating Leinster in Dublin or Edinburgh at home who seem to be our bogey team.

I think if Glasgow are looking to be viewed as realistic challengers they would need to win those 3 home games. If Munster get to the Champions Cup semi-final that could complicate their run in.

Easy games are all relative but home games not against the big three are easier than any away game

Glasgow's run in may become easier if Leinster get to the semi final of the Champions Cup. Leinster may put out a second team. Less likely, Glasgow could beat Sarries and have the same problem. Ulster after going away to Sarries is going to be no picnic either.

Munster only have one rough game on paper going away to Treviso. In reality they play a rested Cardiff side after going away to Edinburgh in the Champs Cup and a potential semi final before the Treviso game. If Connacht are in a win and you are in scenario in the final game, they have more on the line.

Be an interesting run-in. Conference B 2nd to 5th is a mess and anything can happen.

Glasgow are, as always, heavily reliant on Edinburgh to determine the outcome of the season.

Edinburgh can:

A: Beat Munster in the Champs cup, landing a confidence blow to Munster that Glasgow can exploit.
B: Let Munster win so they focus their energy on the Champs cup and take an eye of the Pro 14
C: Decide if we want to take our regular win in Glasgow or let them have a shot for a change

Remember, this is the Edinburgh team that have already done the unwashed a favour by beating Montpellier to give Glasgow a free pass to the euro Q/F

tigertattie wrote:Glasgow are, as always, heavily reliant on Edinburgh to determine the outcome of the season.

Edinburgh can:

A: Beat Munster in the Champs cup, landing a confidence blow to Munster that Glasgow can exploit.
B: Let Munster win so they focus their energy on the Champs cup and take an eye of the Pro 14
C: Decide if we want to take our regular win in Glasgow or let them have a shot for a change

Remember, this is the Edinburgh team that have already done the unwashed a favour by beating Montpellier to give Glasgow a free pass to the euro Q/F

You enjoyed that post, I can tell.

Eejit wrote:

tigertattie wrote:Glasgow are, as always, heavily reliant on Edinburgh to determine the outcome of the season.

Edinburgh can:

A: Beat Munster in the Champs cup, landing a confidence blow to Munster that Glasgow can exploit.
B: Let Munster win so they focus their energy on the Champs cup and take an eye of the Pro 14
C: Decide if we want to take our regular win in Glasgow or let them have a shot for a change

Remember, this is the Edinburgh team that have already done the unwashed a favour by beating Montpellier to give Glasgow a free pass to the euro Q/F

You enjoyed that post, I can tell.

Dragons for the win    

You know people talk of 'focusing on Europe' when trying to explain their shoite league showing? Well........................

The Welsh regions were focusing on the 6 Nations this year. In case anyone asks. OK?!

No problem with Glasgow being considered favourites over Ulster - entirely reasonable; but an easy game it ain't

I don't think there are any easy games at this time of year. Pretty much everyone is playing for something!

Updated the fixtures.

I think Scarlets could pip either Ulster or Benetton easily as they have much easier games but have to win this weekend if they are going to do it

I think Zebre will finish bottom with the hardest games left

BigGee wrote:I don't think there are any easy games at this time of year. Pretty much everyone is playing for something!

Well that’s not only a brainless cliche but factually incorrect. Of course there are easier games than others.

The only easy games are at home to Dragons, Kings and Zebre

Any other game is a potential banana skin

geoff999rugby wrote:The only easy games are at home to Dragons, Kings and Zebre

Any other game is a potential banana skin

Like I said, I misspoke  typed. I hurriedly posted a message trying to convey the fact that I think Glasgow will likely take a minimum of 10 points from the last four and I think they will come this weekend vs Cheetahs and vs Ulster in a few weeks. Maybe I'm wrong and Glasgow lose all four but its all about likelihoods at this stage.

If that is the case then Munster will need 14 points from their last four. For them it could very well come down to that Munster Connacht game last game of the season.

geoff999rugby wrote:The only easy games are at home to Dragons, Kings and Zebre

Any other game is a potential banana skin

That is kind of what I was alluding to with my 'brainless cliche'

BigGee wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:The only easy games are at home to Dragons, Kings and Zebre

Any other game is a potential banana skin

That is kind of what I was alluding to with my 'brainless cliche'

Well thanks for your input, it was enthralling as always.

Here is my prediction for each conference
Munster +18 76
Glasgow +13 74
Connacht +13 60
Blues +8 56
Cheetahs +14 50
Ospreys +7 46
Zebre +2 20

Leinster +15 87
Scarlets +15 60
Ulster +10 59
Benetton +6 56
Edinburgh +6 48
Kings +9 29
Dragons +2 21

I have assumed the Ospreys poor form will continue and lose both games in SA.
I think all the middle teams winning at home against each other
I have Ulster beating Leinster and Scarlets and Blues drawing

I would have Benetton winning the 4th place playoff

Brendan wrote:Here is my prediction for each conference
Munster +18 76
Glasgow +13 74
Connacht +13 60
Blues +8 56
Cheetahs +14 50
Ospreys +7 46
Zebre +2 20

Leinster +15 87
Scarlets +15 60
Ulster +10 59
Benetton +6 56
Edinburgh +6 48
Kings +9 29
Dragons +2 21

I have assumed the Ospreys poor form will continue and lose both games in SA.
I think all the middle teams winning at home against each other
I have Ulster beating Leinster and Scarlets and Blues drawing

I would have Benetton winning the 4th place playoff

Do the two teams who finish fourth then go into a play off for the Champions Cup spot? Or doesn't it work like that?

PhilBB wrote:

Brendan wrote:Here is my prediction for each conference
Munster +18 76
Glasgow +13 74
Connacht +13 60
Blues +8 56
Cheetahs +14 50
Ospreys +7 46
Zebre +2 20

Leinster +15 87
Scarlets +15 60
Ulster +10 59
Benetton +6 56
Edinburgh +6 48
Kings +9 29
Dragons +2 21

I have assumed the Ospreys poor form will continue and lose both games in SA.
I think all the middle teams winning at home against each other
I have Ulster beating Leinster and Scarlets and Blues drawing

I would have Benetton winning the 4th place playoff

Do the two teams who finish fourth then go into a play off for the Champions Cup spot? Or doesn't it work like that?

They do but you need to take the cheetahs out of the equation if they finish high enough.

tigertattie wrote:

They do but you need to take the cheetahs out of the equation if they finish high enough.

Cheers.

tigertattie wrote:

They do but you need to take the cheetahs out of the equation if they finish high enough.

3.2.7 The seven Clubs that qualify to participate in the 2018/19 EPCR Champions Cup will be made up of the following:

The three highest ranked European Clubs in each conference at the end of the League Stage (South African Clubs ineligible)
The winner of a single play-off Match between the next highest ranked European Club in Conference A and the next highest ranked European Club in Conference B.
The single play-off Match will be played at the home venue of the European Club that (as between the two participating Clubs) has the most League Points at the end of the League Stage. If level on points the normal deciding criteria will apply: Points Difference, Tries Scored, Try Difference, etc

Read more at https://www.pro14rugby.org/about-us/competition-rules/#ZuQWah3mo77fEWfB.99

PhilBB wrote:

tigertattie wrote:

They do but you need to take the cheetahs out of the equation if they finish high enough.

3.2.7 The seven Clubs that qualify to participate in the 2018/19 EPCR Champions Cup will be made up of the following:

The three highest ranked European Clubs in each conference at the end of the League Stage (South African Clubs ineligible)
The winner of a single play-off Match between the next highest ranked European Club in Conference A and the next highest ranked European Club in Conference B.
The single play-off Match will be played at the home venue of the European Club that (as between the two participating Clubs) has the most League Points at the end of the League Stage. If level on points the normal deciding criteria will apply: Points Difference, Tries Scored, Try Difference, etc

Read more at https://www.pro14rugby.org/about-us/competition-rules/#ZuQWah3mo77fEWfB.99

If Connacht get the Challange Cup spot and finish fourth in their conference then the playoff would be between the next team (Ospreys) and 4th from Conference B
Or if Edinburgh or Ulster win the Champions Cup but finish fourth in their conference (and get a Champions Cup spot somewhere) then the playoffs wouldn't be 4th v 4th.

Brendan wrote:Updated the fixtures.

I think Scarlets could pip either Ulster or Benetton easily as they have much easier games but have to win this weekend if they are going to do it

I think Zebre will finish bottom with the hardest games left

Looks like it won’t be Scarlets then. Blues don’t have an easy run of games now either.

Provided Ulster get the BP win today I dont think both of Scarlets and Edinburgh will finish above them. they would only need 1 in the last three games and I do believe we will beat a disinterested leinster (unless by some miracle they owe us for dumping them out of the Heineken). The scarlets Edinburgh game is critical and in truth I see the scarlets winning that as they are at home and dont have a QF next week. Treviso I dont think will win any game except Zebre.

Standulstermen wrote:Provided Ulster get the BP win today I dont think both of Scarlets and Edinburgh will finish above them. they would only need 1 in the last three games and I do believe we will beat a disinterested leinster (unless by some miracle they owe us for dumping them out of the Heineken). The scarlets Edinburgh game is critical and in truth I see the scarlets winning that as they are at home and dont have a QF next week. Treviso I dont think will win any game except Zebre.

Rest weeks are not always great at the end of the season, Glasgow had them last year and we just fell to bits. Playing and winning is the best way forward. If Edinburgh beat Munster it will give them a massive boast.

Whoever loses between Edinburgh and Scarlets is probably out of it.

I think one win for Ulster, after today, should be enough to make the top three

Standulstermen wrote:Provided Ulster get the BP win today I dont think both of Scarlets and Edinburgh will finish above them. they would only need 1 in the last three games and I do believe we will beat a disinterested leinster (unless by some miracle they owe us for dumping them out of the Heineken). The scarlets Edinburgh game is critical and in truth I see the scarlets winning that as they are at home and dont have a QF next week. Treviso I dont think will win any game except Zebre.

Why would Leinster be any more disinterested in beating Ulster than Benetton? If the same Leinster shows up as that last Friday, Benetton could easily get a point in Dublin. Benetton are only focused on the league and have time for players to recover during European weeks, whereas Edinburgh and Ulster might pick up more injuries and no rest. So too Munster who of late are a soft ground team with a misfiring backline going to Italy in April - it wouldn't be an upset if Benetton were to beat them in Treviso.

Treviso are no mugs anymore, especially at home. Turn up half cooked and teams will lose nowadays. If Munster play the way they did in the first hour vs Zebre Treviso will be out of sight and with it a home semi.

Benetton are 3rd in Conference B. They could win 2 of their last 3 games, I can't see them getting within a score at the RDS. Let's assume they get 9 points from their remaining games they're guaranteed a play-off spot right?

Updated Table

Con A
Glasgow are assured a playoff and Champions Cup
Zebre are assured 7th
If Munster beat the Blues and match Connacht in the next round, they are assured a playoff home game as would Glasgow
Connacht lead the Blues by 6 points difference and 2 tries

Con B
Leinster don't care suffering their worse defeat.
Dragons v Kings is big for both teams.
If Scarlets beat Edinburgh and get two TB wins against the bottom two sides they finish on 59pts
If this happens Edinburgh can't finish above them. If Edinburgh win they must also beat Ulster to have any hope of finishing above them.
If Scarlets win but don't get a TB next round against Edinburgh, Ulster need 6pts to finish second (most likely).
Benetton need to beat either Leinster or Munster to have any hope of a playoff. Only beating Zebre might not be enough to finish 4th (unless Edinburgh lose to both Scarlets and Ulster and only pick up one BP per game)

Sorry Benetton can finish 3rd with one win but would need two of the following Scarlets to only win two, Edinburgh to only win one, or Ulster to get 1 less BP than Benetton and lose all three games

It's going down to the wire then. Scarlets could get 14-15 points from their remained games, very realistic. They'll need some more players back though!

mikey_dragon wrote:It's going down to the wire then. Scarlets could get 14-15 points from their remained games, very realistic. They'll need some more players back though!

The Scarlets v Edinburgh game will determine what Edinburgh do for their approach v Ulster
I don't expect Benetton to beat Leinster as they did that last year so Leinster will want to it it right. That means their fortunes lay with their home game v Munster.

Currently
Ulster +7 lead over fourth
Benetton +3 lead over forth
Edinburgh -3 behind 3rd
Scarlets -5 behind 3rd

When Glasgow won our conference with games to spare our season went straight off the deep end. I’m not suggesting the same will happen to Leinster who are a far more professional outfit used to success than Glasgow but it does mean that they are playing against teams with far more to lose so it wouldn’t surprise me if Treviso or anyone else did a job on them.

It’s all very exciting this season!

Updated the table.

Blues after losing this week are now in potential trouble. If they lose to Connacht they are out of the league playoffs and could also be behind the Ospreys who they would play on the final day. If Ospreys finish 4th it will have been an unexpected turnaround and they can now finish as the top Welsh team by beating the Blues on the final weekend.

Scarlets are more or less out of the league playoffs as the most they can get is 55 points. If Benneton only beat Zebre they will be on 56 points. Whatever happens between Edinburgh and Ulster one or both teams would be on 55+ points with one game to go.

Glasgow can go claim overall top spot against Leinster if they beat them in the next round. Leinster have really taken their foot off the gas.

2nd to 4th in Conference B is now only 3pts. Ulster have a terrible points difference so need to stay ahead

Ulster could do with Munster beating Benetton in Treviso.
Not only would it dent Benetton's chances but it would also keep Munster in the race for top spot in Conf A. and Glasgow having to beat Edinburgh in their last game.

I hope Benetton gets through, they deserve it. After the Cheetahs making the playoffs last season this would be a nice story and would reward their improvement over the last couple of seasons.

Oh dear it would be a travesty if Ospreys are Wales' representatives in the top European comp next year. Their rugby and decision-making has been bottom drawer all season. It was for much of the game against Cheetahs yesterday although you wouldn't think that if you just read report from BBC Wales and the WOL... Cardiff aren't hitting their heights but they do have good potential in their squad, as do Scarlets if their absentees return. Dragons are still a write-off. It's probably the second worst season I've seen for our teams. Will the WRU and Regions even do anything about it this time though.

I like the idea of the season ending with derbies. Even if things are wrapped up, it's still a derby.

Part of me thinks though if Leinster fields youngsters to go up to Ravenhill and they lose to Ulster, others will call conspiracy. Likewise if Glasgow get rolled over by Edinburgh or the if the Dragons pay poorly against the Scarlets. All those results are entirely possible.

Is the last round simultaneous kick offs or do 2 teams kick off last knowing what they'd need?

thebandwagonsociety wrote:I like the idea of the season ending with derbies. Even if things are wrapped up, it's still a derby.

Part of me thinks though if Leinster fields youngsters to go up to Ravenhill and they lose to Ulster, others will call conspiracy.  Likewise if Glasgow get rolled over by Edinburgh or the if the Dragons pay poorly against the Scarlets.  All those results are entirely possible.

Is the last round simultaneous kick offs or do 2 teams kick off last knowing what they'd need?

All the same kick off

Leinster is the only team who might rest their stars for the last game

Glasgow/Munster are fighting out for avoid Leinster in the semis. If Edinburgh did beat Glasgow not sure it would be a surprise
Ospreys and Blues could well be fighting it out for a Champions Cup playoff spot (and Wales top team)
Ulster, Benetton, Edinburgh and maybe Scarlets (depending on results) will be fighting out for some playoff place that is up for grabs. If Ulster and Scarlets win this weekend then it will be a fight for 3rd and fourth

Derbies in the last round is just a silly silly idea!

As an Edinburgh fan, to avoid claims of bias, let’s look at it this way.

Edinburgh have lost to Ulster, we can't make the playoffs.

Glasgow and Munster are fighting for top spot. Glasgow are currently 1 point ahead of Munster going into the last game. If Glasgow win with a BP against Edinburgh then they are top no matter what.

SRU have a wee game of Chinese whispers and tell Edinburgh to lose the game but not make it too obvious. All Edinburgh are playing for is another win over Glasgow. We already have the 1872 cup. We're out of the playoffs. So really it makes sense for Glasgow to be handed the win.

Munster win their game in a blood and guts affair.

Glasgow get gifted the win against Edinburgh (a team they've lost to in 8 of the last 10 meetings)

Munster would have a right to feel aggrieved here!

I also don't like the games being played during the 6Ns windows. It just gives teams that play Leinster a far better chance of picking up points from them during this window. It makes the outcome of the league more of a lottery.

Derbies in the last round is a great idea!
Conference A could have a shootout between the Ospreys and Cardiff for the third/fourth spot with Munster and Connacht also fighting for playoff standing.
Even if Edinburgh lost to Ulster Conference B could have Edinburgh needing a win to get into the ERCC playoff ahead of Scarlets and Glasgow trying to finish top. The games in Munster and Glasgow kickoff at the same time, but they are the last games of the day so Edinburgh will know exactly what they have to do.
Having the League edge means the derby games will have that extra spice and only the Cheetahs v Kings with only pride riding on it. At least having it in their own country might stimulate more interest from fans?
This year also has the RWC factor where it could be the last chance for a player to impress National coaches head to head against potential Test competition.
How would a team throw a game anyway - select Academy players? Is that the sort of opposition that hones a team to become champions?

I'd love to be the fly on the wall when an SRU suit calls Cockers into a meeting to tell him to throw the game or Edinburgh players going into the Scotland squad having the defeat rubbed in their face.

Derbies are good at the end and even if Edinburgh lose their next game they still need to win to get the 4th place playoff.
Unless Scarlets lose and Ulster and Benetton win that last game matters

Only teams with nothing to play for are Cheetahs. Can't get higher or lower. Bottom 3 are scrapping not to be last.

Whatever people feel about the league structure, it has this season, produced the kind of finish that it was designed to do, an awful lot of teams have something still to play for and there will be competitive games right up to the last games.

I think in a league as well , arguments about easy and hard ganmes tend to even themselves out over the course of the season. Even if no games got played in international windows, teams would still not be able to play their international players in every game and each team will manage their resources as they feel best. There will always be matches they target over others.

You can't just abandon the club game in the international periods, plus it is the chance for the next generation to step up.

All in all you would have to say that the Pro 14 has produced the goods this year.

I really rate the league structure, and the league itself. It’s been entertaining throughout. Welsh teams need to improve now or we get left behind.

Precisely half of the officiating team in the Connacht v Cardiff game are Irish.

What a league.